Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.73; (P) 130.51; (R1) 131.05; More....

EUR/JPY continues to stay in range of 128.94/132.40. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Also, with 132.40 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 128.94 will extend the whole fall from 137.49 to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level next. Nonetheless, break of 132.40 should confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. Sustained break there would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 119.90. On the upside, break of 132.40 resistance will indicate that the pull back is completed and bring retest of 137.49. But still, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at best for consolidations.

Overnight, the Dow Jones was sold heavily, whilst most Asian Indices rose from their interim lows quite strongly. The move also spiked the GBP/USD as I showed on my LIVE Trading webinar. Technically, the Dax should be poised to rise this morning, as we can see the retail gap (red highlight). Rejection might happen close to order block/ M Cm -12119 and POC – 12220-245 if the price retraces further. Targets are 11933, 11868 (if the trend line breaks) and 11646.

W L3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)

W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

M H4 - Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Monthly Resistance)

M L3 – Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Monthly Support)

M L4 – Monthly H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Monthly Support)

POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8746; (P) 0.8763; (R1) 0.8776; More...

ERU/GBP continues to stay in right range below 0.8796 and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, the cross was supported by 0.8686 key support level, we'd slightly favoring the case for further rebound. On the upside, above 0.8796 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.8967 to 0.8666 at 0.8852 and above. Nonetheless, on the downside, firm break of 0.8666 will resume the decline from 0.9305 and pave the way to 0.8303 key support zone next.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

GBPUSD has turned to the upside since the start of March which looks like a new five wave bullish move in progress. We call that an impulse in the making which is not over yet as we see current set-back from the highs in three legs, therefore it's probably wave four that can send prices higher next week. Technically speaking pair is bullish while it trades above the trendline support connected from 1.3710, so watch out for that upper trendline of a current downward channel which may confirm the end of wave four once the line is decisively broken.

GBPUSD, 4H

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6012; (P) 1.6048; (R1) 1.6091; More....

EUR/AUD is still bounded in consolidation pattern from 1.6189 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Deeper retreat might be seen. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5857 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.6189 will resume the whole rally from 1.5153 and target 1.6587 key resistance. Nonetheless, break of 1.5857 will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn bias to the downside for 1.5621 support to confirm.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. And it's still in progress for 1.6587 key resistance level. We'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But for now, break of 1.5621 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stays bullish even in case of deep pull back.

EUR/USD

Current level - 1.2322

All the trading above 1.2280 seems corrective in nature, so the outlook is bearish below 1.2380, for a slide towards 1.2240, en route to 1.2160.

USD/JPY

Current level - 105.96

Despite the dip through 105.90 I continue to favor the upside and expect a break through 106.10 and the crucial 106.40 to trigger a rise towards 108.00 area.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1..4064

My outlook remains bearish below 1.4090 resistance, for a slide towards 1.3910 area. Trigger on the downside is 1.4020.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1736; (P) 1.1750; (R1) 1.1763; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 1.1803 temporary top extends. In case of another rise, we'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 1.1832 to bring reversal. Break of of 1.1649 support will indicate completion of rebound form 1.1445. And the corrective pattern from 1.1832 would then extend with another decline to retest 1.1445. However, firm break of 1.1832 will confirm resumption of larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'd still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.

The Aussie dollar bounced from 0.7650 (floor five-day congestion) on Tuesday and tested range top at 0.7706, after Australian central bank kept rates unchanged at record low at 1.5% for 20 straight months and showing no signs of any change in the policy until next year.

Fresh upside action probes above 10SMA (0.7694) which marks initial pivot, clear break of which could signal and end of extended sideways trading and fresh recovery.

Daily techs remain in firm bearish setup and extension above 10SMA would result in limited recovery which should be capped by falling 20SMA (0.7746) before broader bears resume.

Only close above 20SMA would sideline downside risk and signal stronger correction.

Res: 0.7706, 0.7746, 0.7763, 0.7775
Sup: 0.7681, 0.7642, 0.7600, 0.7586

The pair regains traction and returns above 106 handle in early European trading on Tuesday, after being under pressure in Asia, for extension of bear-leg of past three days from 107.01.

Overnight’s dip was contained just above Monday’s low at 105.65, after renewed attempt to break below 10SMA (105.84) failed.

Techs on lower timeframes are improving, however, daily studies remain weak and keep the downside vulnerable.

Fresh recovery attempts need clear break above 30SMA (106.27) to sideline downside risk and open way for retest of 107.01 (28 Mar recovery peak).

Conversely, close below 10SMA would generate bearish signal for further retracement of 104.63/107.01 recovery leg.

Res: 106.27, 106.45, 106.64, 107.01
Sup: 105.84, 105.54, 105.20, 105.00

Cable extends recovery on Tuesday and pressures pivotal barrier at 1.4099 (10SMA / Fibo 38.2% of 1.4243/1.4010 bear-leg), looking for stronger bullish signal on break.

Near-term bulls are regaining traction after pullback from 1.4243 double-top was contained by the top of thick daily cloud (reinforced by rising 20SMA) at 1.4010 zone, where a higher base is forming.

Overall bullish picture on daily chart remains supportive as slow stochastic is reversing from oversold territory and momentum is turning higher above the midline, sending positive signals.

Fresh bullish acceleration needs to clearly break above 1.4099, to generate stronger bullish signal for further recovery, which could extend towards next strong barrier at 1.4154 (Fibo 61.8% / top of 4-hr cloud).

Release of UK Manufacturing PMI data is key event for sterling today (Mar f/c 54.8 vs 55.2 in Feb) and could slow recovery on weaker than expected release.

Res: 1.4099, 1.4126, 1.4154, 1.4188
Sup: 1.4066, 1.4040, 1.4010, 1.3987