Sample Category Title

Aussie Trading A Tad Higher In The Asian Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.36% against the USD and closed at 0.7654.

LME Copper prices declined 0.6% or $40.0/MT to $6601.5/MT. Aluminium prices declined 1.3% or $26.0/MT to $2009.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7657, with the AUD trading marginally higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

On the economic front, Australia’s private sector credit increased 0.4% on a monthly basis in February, more than market expectations for a rise of 0.3%. In the previous month, the private sector credit had recorded a rise of 0.3%.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7633, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7608. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7692, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7726.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Germany’s Consumer Sentiment Surprisingly Improved In April

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.79% against the USD and closed at 1.2309.

In economic news, Germany’s GfK consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose to a level of 10.9 in April, defying market expectations for a drop to a level of 10.7, thus indicating that consumers are regaining confidence in the country’s economic strength. In the prior month, the index had registered a level of 10.8.

The US Dollar advanced against a basket of major currencies, after data revealed a sharp upward revision to US GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2017.

The third estimate of the US annualised gross domestic product (GDP) was revised higher to 2.9% on a quarterly basis in the final three months of 2017, boosted by robust jobs growth and healthy consumer spending, while the preliminary print had recorded a rise of 2.5%. The nation’s GDP had risen 3.2% in the prior quarter.

Additionally, pending home sales in the US rebounded 3.1% on a monthly basis in February, rising for the first time in 3 months and exceeding market consensus for a gain of 2.0%. In the previous month, pending home sales had dropped by a revised 5.0%. On the other hand, the nation’s advance goods trade deficit slightly widened to $75.4 billion in February, from a revised deficit of $75.3 billion reported in the prior month, while investors had envisaged it to narrow to $74.4 billion.

In other economic news, the MBA mortgage applications in the US grew 4.8% in the week ended 23 March, compared to a fall of 1.1% in the prior week.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2323, with the EUR trading 0.11% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2275, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2226. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2397, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2470.

Trading trend in the Euro today is expected to be determined by the release of Germany’s unemployment rate and flash consumer price inflation data, both for March, due to release in a few hours. Later in the day, the US initial jobless claims, followed by personal income and spending data for February as well as the final Michigan consumer sentiment index for March, will garner a lot of market attention.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

UK’s Consumer Confidence Jumped To A 10-Month High In March

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.61% against the USD and closed at 1.4079.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.4078, with the GBP trading slightly lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

Overnight data revealed that Britain's GfK consumer confidence index surprisingly climbed to a 10-month high level of -7.0 in March, as the latest Brexit developments and easing inflationary pressures boosted consumer morale. The index had registered a reading of -10.0 in the previous month, while markets had expected for an unchanged reading.

On the other hand, the nation's Lloyds business barometer eased to 32.0 in March, after recording a reading of 33.0 in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.4026, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3974. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.4165, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4252.

Going ahead, traders would closely monitor UK's final 4Q GDP numbers along with net consumer credit and mortgage approvals data, both for February, all scheduled to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Japanese Yen Trading On A Stronger Footing This Morning

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 1.35% against the JPY and closed at 106.82.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 106.65, with the USD trading 0.16% lower against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

Overnight data showed that Japan’s retail trade grew less-than-expected by 0.4% on a monthly basis in February, compared to market expectations for an advance of 0.6%. Retail trade had registered a drop of 1.8% in the previous month. Further, the nation’s large retailers’ sales rose 0.6% on a monthly basis in February, following a gain of 0.5% in the prior month, while investors had envisaged for an increase of 0.9%.

The pair is expected to find support at 105.72, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 104.78. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.3, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.94.

Looking ahead, Japan’s jobless rate and flash industrial production data, both for February, slated to release overnight, will be on investors’ radar.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Swiss ZEW Expectations Index Deteriorated In March

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 1.12% against the CHF and closed at 0.9568.

On the data front, Switzerland’s ZEW economic expectations index fell to a level of 16.7 in March, after recording a reading of 25.8 in the previous month.

Meanwhile, the KOF Economic Institute, in its latest economic forecast report, boosted Switzerland’s economic growth forecast to 2.5% for this year, up from 2.3% estimated earlier in December. Meanwhile, growth in 2019 is expected to be 1.8%, revised up from 1.7%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9562, with the USD trading 0.06% lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9490, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9418. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9606, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9650.

Ahead in the day, traders would focus on Switzerland’s KOF leading indicator for March.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Loonie Trading Marginally Higher, Ahead Of Canada’s GDP Data

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.33% against the CAD and closed at 1.2924.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.292, with the USD trading slightly lower against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2878, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2835. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2948, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2975.

Moving ahead, all eyes would be on Canada's crucial GDP figures for January, due to release later in the day.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.78; (P) 131.24; (R1) 131.93; More....

EUR/JPY is staying in range of 128.94/132.40 and intraday bias remains neutral. Also, with 132.40 resistance intact, near term outlook remains neutral and another fall is expected. On the downside break of 128.94 will extend the whole fall from 137.49 to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level next. Nonetheless, break of 132.40 should confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. Sustained break there would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 119.90. On the upside, break of 132.40 resistance will indicate that the pull back is completed and bring retest of 137.49. But still, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at best for consolidations.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1734; (P) 1.1768; (R1) 1.1806; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside for retesting 1.1832 high. At this point, we'd remain cautious on strong resistance from there to bring another fall to extend recent corrective pattern. Though, firm break will confirm resumption of larger up trend. On the downside, break of 1.1649 support will turn focus back to 1.1445 instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'd still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7643; (P) 0.7673; (R1) 0.7692; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside as fall from 0.8135 is in progress. The pair should target 0.7500 key support level next. At this point, we'll stay cautious on strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7784 minor resistance is needed to be the first sign of near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2833; (P) 1.2868; (R1) 1.2922; More....

No change in USD/CAD's outlook and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. We continue to expect strong support from 1.2802 cluster support zone (38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789) to contain downside and bring rebound. Larger rise is expected to resume later. And break of of 1.3124 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next. However, firm break of 1.2789/2802 will raise the chance of rejection by 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level and bring deeper fall to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2766) and below.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the medium term bullish case. That is, larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds. However, rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.