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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8701; (P) 0.8730; (R1) 0.8753; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside as fall from 0.8967 is in progress to retest 0.8686 low. We'd be cautious on strong support from there to bring another rebound. But decisive break of 0.8686 will resume whole fall from 0.9305 and target 0.8303 key support next. On the upside, above 0.8757 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery first.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5831; (P) 1.5915; (R1) 1.5972; More....

EUR/AUD drew support from 4 hour 55 EMA and recovered. It's staying below 1.6039 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. Overall, further rise is expected as long as 1.5791 support holds. Break of 1.6039 will resume larger rally to 61.8% projection of 1.5130 to 1.5976 from 1.5621 at 1.6130 first. Break there will target 100% projection at 1.6444 next. However, break of 1.5791 minor support will be an early sign of near term reversal. In such case, focus will be turned back to 1.5621 support.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. And it's still in progress for 1.6587 key resistance level. We'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But for now, break of 1.5153 support is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stays bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1691; (P) 1.1709; (R1) 1.1731; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for consolidation below 1.1748 temporary top. With 1.1672 minor support intact, further rise is still expected. Break of 1.1748 will target at test on 1.1832 high. At this point, we'll stay cautious strong resistance from there to bring another fall. Corrective pattern from 1.1832 might still have an attempt on 1.1355 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1832 at 1.1372) before completion. On the downside, below 1.1672 minor support will target 1.1445 low again. However, decisive break of 1.1832 will confirm up trend resumption for 1.2 handle next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'd still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.

Currency pair EUR/USD

The EUR/USD bounced at the support trend line (blue) yesterday despite the interest rate hike in the US from 1.5% to 1.75% for the US Dollar. The rate hike caused price volatility on lower time frames but ultimately the support level persevered. Price is now retesting the resistance trend line (red) and a bullish break could start a potential wave 3 (purple).

The EUR/USD bullish momentum is probably part of a wave 3 (blue) but a bullish breakout is needed before this scenario becomes more likely.

Currency pair GBP/USD

The GBP/USD uptrend completedthe bearish correction andbroke above the key resistance (red) trend line. This sparked the continuation of wave 5 (blue) within wave C (purple). The GBP will have an interest rate decision of its own today.

The GBP/USD broke above the resistance trend line (dotted red), which sparked a continuation within wave 5 (orange).Price could still extend the wave 3 (green) to a higher Fib level. A retracement could see support at the Fib levels of wave 4 (green).

Currency pair USD/JPY

The USD/JPY failed to break above the resistance trend line (red) of the larger triangle pattern and is now testing the support line (blue). Price needs to break the support or resistance before a larger breakout is possible.

The USD/JPY could be building a wave 2 (blue) as long as price does not break below the 100% Fib level.

Japan PMI manufacturing dropped to 53.2 in March, down from 54.1 and missed expectation of 54.3.

Key points from the release:

• Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI declines in March to 53.2, from 54.1 in February.
• New orders increase, albeit to weakest extent in five months.
• Job creation eases amid joint-softest pace of output growth since July 2017.

Quotes from Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit:

"The headline PMI declined in March, signalling a weaker improvement in overall business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Output, new order and employment growth rates all slowed, while longer lead times continued to impact supply capacities.

"That said, with new business increasing for an eighteenth straight month, firms raised output prices to a quicker extent, signalling confidence in the demand climate and purchasing power of their clients. Despite two months of weaker headline PMI readings, the 2018 Q1 average still signals a robust operating environment."

Full release here

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7698; (P) 0.7739; (R1) 0.7805; More...

AUD/USD rebounded after hitting 0.7671 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. At this point, the pair is staying in a near term falling channel. And, with 0.7915 resistance intact, deeper fall is still expected. Below 0.76171 will turn bias to the downside and resume whole fall from 0.8135 to 0.7500 key support level.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2835; (P) 1.2955; (R1) 1.3022; More....

USD/CAD's decline from 1.3124 accelerated to as low as 1.2879 so far and is pressing near term channel support. While further fall could still be seen, we'd anticipate strong support at 1.2802 cluster (38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3124 will extend recent rally to 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next. However, firm break of 1.2789/2802 will raise the chance of rejection by 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level and bring deeper fall to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2704.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the medium term bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds. However, rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

The euro has moved higher against the greenback, hitting 1.2368 overnight, following the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise U.S interest rates 0.25 basis, to 1.75 percent. The EURUSD pair moved above the 1.2300 handle, as the FED’s medium rate forecast for 2018 mentioned only three rate hikes, whilst the FED statement revealed inflation expectation remained tempered. Euro traders now look for further upside this morning as the U.S dollar comes under pressure, with the 1.2382 level the key upside resistance level to watch.

The EURUSD pair retains a bullish intraday bias whilst trading above the 1.2305 level, key resistance is currently found at the 1.2382 and 1.2430 levels.

If the EURUSD pair trades below the 1.2305 support level, further losses towards the 1.2278 and 1.2238 levels remain possible.

The British pound has moved sharply higher against the U.S dollar, hitting 1.4171, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates but struck a dovish tone towards the U.S economy. The GBPUSD pair is now trading around the 1.4150 level, with the U.S dollar index remaining under pressure well below the key 90.00 level. Traders now look towards today’s Bank of England interest rate decision, with recent strong UK wage and jobs data supporting overall pound sentiment.

The GBPUSD pair is strongly bullish whilst trading above the 1.4088 level, further upside towards 1.4200 and 1.4279 remains possible.

Should GBPUSD sellers breach the 1.4088 support level, price-action will then likely correct back toward the 1.4045 and 1.4000 support levels.

A combination of economic data and monetary policy will drive an active schedule for the financial markets on Thursday. With the markets still abuzz from the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates, attention now turns to the Bank of England (BOE).

The BOE's Monetary Policy Committee will coalesce on Thursday to vote on interest rates, with the official verdict scheduled for 12:00 GMT. Officials are expected to vote unanimously for keeping the benchmark rate at 0.5%.

There are plenty of market-moving events before and after the BOE rate decision. Action begins at 07:45 GMT with reports on French GDP and business sentiment. Fifteen minutes later, Brussels will release the latest current account surplus for the euro area.

IHS Markit will dominate the headlines between 08:00 and 09:00 GMT, as the research institute unveils the latest PMI data for the Eurozone. Services, manufacturing and composite PMI reports are scheduled for Germany, France and the Eurozone. All data sets are preliminary and will cover the month of March.

At 09:00 GMT, the IFO Institute will report on German business sentiment for the month of March. The report is considered an important proxy for underlying business conditions in Europe's largest economy.

The United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics will report on retail sales at 09:30 GMT. Receipts at retail stores are forecast to rise 0.4% in February and 1.3% compared to last year.

Shifting gears to North America, the US Department of Labor will release weekly jobless claims data at 12:30 GMT. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits is forecast to decline slightly to 225,000 in the week ended 17 March.

Markit will also release fresh US PMI data covering the manufacturing and services industries. The Kansas City Fed will round out the headlines with a report on regional manufacturing at 15:00 GMT.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar held its ground against the greenback on Thursday despite weaker than expected jobs data. Aussie employment rose by 17,500 for February, as unemployment edged up to 5.6% from 5.5%. Analysts had called for a monthly jobs gain of 20,000 and for unemployment to hold steady. The AUD/USD was last seen at 0.7760.

EUR/USD

Europe's common currency extended its recovery on Thursday, with the EUR/USD adding 0.2% to 1.2364. The pair has swung through volatile ranges in recent days, including a brief stint in the low 1.2200 region. Immediate resistance is located at 1.2414, which is the swing high from 14 March.

GBP/USD

Cable's strong uptrend continued on Thursday, as traders turned their attention to the first BOE meeting in the wake of the latest Brexit transition deal. GBP/USD rose 0.2% to 1.4164. The pair is eyeing resistance at 1.4170. A clean break above this level would lead to 1.4210.