Sample Category Title

EUR/GBP is maintaining its bearish consolidation phase, trading at the 0.8825 range and expected to show a slight increasing phase. Hourly support and resistance are given at 0.8812 (10/11/2017 low) and 0.8982 (28/11/2017 high). The technical structure suggests shortterm increase.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from 2015 lows. The technical structure suggests further upside pressure. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 (psychological level) while support remains at 0.8304 (05/12/2016 low). The pair is trading above its 200 DMA.

AUD/USD bounced back following recent decline at 0.7771, currently trading at the 0.7795 range and expected to decline further along 0.7770. Hourly support and resistance are given at 0.7704 (24/12/2017 low) and 0.7979 (15/01/2018 high). Further support and resistance are given at 0.7638 (15/12/2017 low) and 0.8134 (26/01/2018 high). The technical structure suggests short-term downward moves.

In the long-term, the upward trend slows down after failing to reach key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 low). Key support stands at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low). A break of the key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD bullish momentum pushed the pair above the 1.30 range, breaking hourly resistance at 1.2998 (05/03/2018 high) and heading for hourly resistance at 1.3117 (28/06/2017 high). Hourly support is maintained at 1.2805 (12/03/2018 low). The short-term technical structure suggests further short-term increase.

In the longer term, the pair is trading between resistance point at 1.3805 (05/05/2017 high) and support at 1.2128 (18/06/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head lower. The pairs is trading above its 200 DMA.

USD/CHF is trading higher following recent decline below 0.95. Expected to bounce back along the 0.9520 range. The pair currently trades between hourly support and resistance at 0.9296 (05/02/2018 low) and 0.9668 (17/01/2018 high). The technical structure suggests short-term upward moves.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support lies at 0.9072 (07/05/2015 low) while resistance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high) is distanced. The technical structure favours a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/JPY is rising back following recent decline at 105.65, heading higher along the 106 range. Hourly support and resistance are given at 105.29 (02/03/2018 low) and 107.90 (14/02/2018 high). The bearish pattern started in January 2018 is maintained. The short-term technical structure suggests short-term rising moves.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support remains at 101.20 (09/11/2016 low). A gradual rise toward the major resistance at 125.86 (05/06/2015 high) seems unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 101.20 (09/11/2016 low). The pair trades largely below its 200 DMA.

GBP/USD momentum starts back, approaching 1.40. The pair is currently contained between hourly support and resistance at 1.3765 (09/02/2018 low) and 1.4151 (05/02/2018 high). The technical structure suggests short-term increase.

The long-term technical pattern is reversing. The Brexit vote had paved the way for further decline but the pair is moving to 2016 highs. Long-term support and resistance are given at 1.1841 (07/10/2017 low) and 1.5018 (24/06/2016 high).

EUR/USD is recovering following its recent decline at 1.2295, heading higher along the 1.2340. Hourly support and resistance are given at 1.2112 (12/01/2018 low) and 1.2537 (31/01/2018 high). The technical structure suggests further short-term increase.

In the longer term, the momentum is turning largely positive. We favor a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2886 (15/10/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.1554 (08/11/2017 low).

EUR/USD has posted gains in the Friday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.2329, up 0.20% on the day. On the release front, German Wholesale Price Index declined 0.3%, missing the estimate of +0.2%. Eurozone Final CPI also disappointing, as the reading of 1.1% was shy of the forecast of 1.3%. In the US, key indicators are expected to slow, which could weigh on the US dollar during the North American session. Building Permits and Housing Starts are forecast to drop to 1.32 million and 1.29 million respectively. The markets are also bracing for a drop in UoM Consumer Sentiment, which is expected to slow to 99.2 points.

The eurozone economy has been on the rebound, but inflation levels still remain well short of the ECB target of just under 2 percent. In fact, Eurozone Final CPI has been dropping in recent months, and this worrisome trend continued in February, when the indicator dropped to 1.1%, down from 1.3% a month earlier. This marked the weakest gain since December 2016. On Wednesday, inflation was on the mind of ECB President Mario Draghi, who expressed caution about inflation. Draghi said that the ECB still needed to see evidence that inflation was gaining strength before there could be any talk about a change in monetary policy. In the meantime, the ECB would remain “patient, persistent and prudent”. Stronger economic conditions have led to growing speculation that the ECB will wind up its stimulus program in September. However, there is still plenty of slack in the economy, and coupled with low inflation, Draghi can afford to remain cautious and maintain current monetary policy for some time.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel was elected to a fourth term on Wednesday, but this time she stumbled over the finish line, as opposed to previous wins, when she cruised to victory. Merkel’s stature has diminished after a poor showing in the election back in September, and she will preside over a fractured coalition. Merkel was forced to give the socialist SDP the finance and foreign ministry portfolios, so we can expect the new government to be more supportive of eurozone integration, including assistance for weaker eurozone members.

Strong data supports the dollar index
Gold holding its ground, thanks to geoplitics
Crude traders keeping taps on supply
Crypto crisis continues

Forex

The USD found some comfort with today's economic data releases showing lower than anticipated jobless claims and continuing claims in the United States, sending the euro down 0.5% against the dollar. Strong US economic data solidifies investors' beliefs that there will be a FED rate rise coming next week.

Further strengthened by rising treasury yields and economic data showing a rise in the price of imported goods during the month of February, the dollar edged 0.2 percentage points higher against the Sterling.

Kudlow's appointment as Trump's senior economic adviser reinforces beliefs that the White House will go the full way in delivering its protectionist manifesto. Safe haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen flourished as a result, up to 106.33.

Gold

Worries about a global trade war continued to cast a shadow over US equity markets with the S&P 500 down 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.4%. Despite capital outflows from the equity markets, the inverse correlation between the market for Gold and Equities did not materialize, seeing the precious metal lose nearly $10, down to $1316/ounce. Although a firmer dollar offset news that Kudlow, who has previously expressed approval for additional tariffs on US imports from China, will become director of the national economic council, Gold bulls will likely benefit from worsening trade tensions.

Oil

Oil prices moved higher in tandem with the industry-focused Dow Jones, up 0.5% today, but gains were limited due to worries that crude supply would outstrip demand this year. Fears expressed from the International Energy Agency on Thursday that a global trade war could threaten oil demand growth.

Cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrencies continued to extend their descent as the fundamentals weaken. Google's decision to ban cryptocurrency related adverts will only harm the rate at which this new asset class is adopted. Furthermore large selling pressure comes amidst Mt.Gox, a bankrupt Japanese cryptocurrency exchange sells large quantities of coins to repay creditors.

Notes/Observations

Continued rumblings of looming staff shake-up within the Trump Administration

Optimism that UK can hash out a deal on Brexit transition ahead of next week’s EU Leader Summit

Asia:

Japan Lower and Upper Houses of Diet approved BoJ Gov Kuroda to additional 5-year term; also approved Amamiya and Wakatabe as Dep Governors

Europe:

UK and EU officials agree to take part in 'intensive talks' to resolve Irish border issue and to include discussion of customs and goods rule. UK had plenty of ground to make up on the Irish border issue before next week’s EU summit where it wanted to agree a deal on a Brexit transition period as the gap on the Irish question remained wide

ECB opened a second consultation on the new euro unsecured overnight rate with final consultations due by 20th April 2018

Americas:

Jan Total Net TIC Flows +$119.7B v -$122.5B prior; Net Long Term TIC Flows: $62.1B v $23.3B prior; China Total holding of US Treasuries at a 6-month low ($1.17T v $1.18T prior)

US Chamber of Commerce spokesperson: urged Trump administration to not impose tariffs against China as it would hurt Americans and could lead to trade war. Did believe that needed focus on negative economic impact of Chinese industrial practices but imposing tariffs was wrong approach

President Trump said to have decided to replace national security advisor McMasters but the move was not expected to be made immediately (denied by White House)

Special counsel Robert Mueller had subpoenaed Trump and his organization to turn over documents (includes those related to Russia). This would be the first known instance of Mueller demanding records directly related to President Trump’s businesses

Economic Data:

(DE) Germany Feb Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.3% v +0.9% prior; Y/Y: 1.2% v 2.0% prior

(FI) Finland Jan GDP Indicator WDA Y/Y: 0.9 v 2.7% prior

(NO) Norway Feb Trade Balance (NOK): 21.3B v 28.5B prior

(TR) Turkey Jan Industrial Production M/M: -0.8% v +1.2%e; Y/Y: 12.0% v 6.7%e

(CN) Weekly Shanghai copper inventories (SHFE): 297.0K v 268.1K tons prior

(AT) Austria Feb CPI M/M: +0.3% v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8% prior

(ES) Spain Q4 Labour Costs Y/Y: 0.7 v 0.4% prior

(CZ) Czech Feb PPI Industrial M/M: -0.4% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v +0.2%e

(CZ) Czech Jan Current Account (CZK): +28.8B v -7.5B prior

(PL) Poland Feb Employment M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.7%e, Average Gross Wages M/M: 0.2% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 6.8% v 7.2%e

(IT) Italy Feb Final CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1% prelim; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.6% prelim

(IT) Italy Feb Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.5% v -0.3% prelim, Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.7% prelim, CPI Index (Ex Tobacco): 101.5 v 101.5 prior

Fixed Income Issuance:

(ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR900M vs. ZAR900M indicated in I/L 2025, 2029 and 2050 bonds

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.1% at 377.1, FTSE +0.2% at 7152, DAX +0.4% at 12394, CAC-40 -0.1% at 5264, IBEX-35 +0.1% at 9692, FTSE MIB +0.2% at 22761 , SMI +0.2% at 8893, S&P 500 Futures +0.1%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European Indices trades slightly higher across the board, with the Dax outperforming following a late open after technical issues on the futures which prevented the usual open. On the earnings front Fraport, Bachem, Mitie, JD Weatherspoons trade lower after Earnings/trading updates; Salini Impregilo a notable riser after strong results and guidance. Nex Group trades over 30% higher after confirming bid interest from the CME; Deutsche Bank issued their annual report, guiding 2018 Revenue to rise while increasing their cost forecast. Looking ahead notable earners include retailers Tiffany's, Hibbett Sport, Buckle and Pery Ellis.

Movers

Consumer Discretionary [ JD Weatherspoon [JDW.UK] -1.7% (Trading update), Mitie [MTO.UK] -4.0% (Trading update), Takeaway.com [TKWY.NL] -3.9% (Prime Ventures priced ~2.4M shares at €45.70/share) ]

Industrials [Fraport [FRA.DE]-1.3% (Earnings), Salini Impregilo [SAL.IT] +8.2% (Earnings) ]

Financials [ Nex Group [NXG.UK] +32% (confirms takeover interest from CME), Deutsche Bank [BDK.DE] +0.8% (Annual report ]

Healthcare [Bachem [BANB.CH] -3.4% (Earnings)]

Speakers

ECB's Praet (Belgium, chief economist) noted that was seeing an improvement in inflation but the region might have more slack than previously thought which could be slowing the rebound of inflation. ECB to ensure that policy controled the short-end of the yield curve. Must be precise on short-term rates once QE bond buying ended. Rate guidance would need to be specified and reiterated view that ECB to proceed at a gradual pace

BOE Financial Policy Committee (FPC) Mar Minutes maintained its countercyclical buffer at 1.0% and would revisit level at the Jun meeting. Banks to face tougher hurdles in 2018 stress test. It noted that domestic risk appetite had slightly risen since Nov

EU said to see 'little chances' for WTO suit versus steel tariffs announced by the US; said to be preparing member states for a trade war with the US over President Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs

Austria WIFO think tank Quarterly Economic Forecasts raised its 2018 GDP from 3.0% to 3.2% and maintained 2019 GDP at 2.2%

Norway Central Bank (Norges) Dep Gov Nicolaisen reiterated view that interest rates to be raised after summer but would be careful on rate hikes He noted a close link between NOK currency (Krone) and oil

Russia Central Bank’s Dmitriev: CPI to accelerate smoothly towards the 4% target in H2 2018. Q2 inflation to be somewhat lower than Q1 due to base effects

Japan Fin Min Aso reiterated his position that he had no intention to resign at this time

Japan Cabinet Office (Gov’t) Monthly Economic Report for March maintained its overall assessment that economy was recovering at a moderate pace. The govt did raises its view on inflation which now saw CPI as rising moderately (prior view was seen as flat).

North and South Korea officials to hold high level talks in March. A potential meeting between the two leaders (Moon and Kim) could be decided after the high-level talks with any leader summit would likely end within a day. South Korea said to be considering a Moon-Trump meeting before the planned Trump-Kim summit

Taiwan Central Bank official Harry Yen (top FX official) reiterated view to maintain order in currency markets

Currencies

USD consolidating with the focus turning towards next week’s FOMC meeting but continued rumblings within the Trump Administration and potential trade war were headwinds for the greenback.

EUR/USD was well contained within the 2018 trading range as ECB officials continued to speak cautious on the inflation front. Pair holding above the 1.23 just ahead of the NY morning.

GBP/USD was slightly higher above the 1.3950 level as reports circulated that UK and EU officials agreed to take part in 'intensive talks' to resolve Irish border issue ahead of next week’s EU summit. However the gap on the Irish question said to remained wide.

USD/JPY was lower by over 0.5% at 105.50 as the political rumblings within the Trump administration provided some JPY safe-haven flows. Japanese govt did raise its view on inflation which now saw CPI as rising moderately (prior view was seen as flat).

Fixed Income

Bund Futures trade 10 ticks higher at 158.22 at the highs for the week. Upside targets 158.75, while a return lower targets the157.50 level.

Gilt futures trade at 123.01 up 9 ticks after the Irish border spat complicates Brexit transition talks. Support continues to stand at 121.75 then 120.95, with upside resistance at 123.35 then 123.75.

Friday's liquidity report showed Thursday's excess liquidity fell to €1.865T from €1.900T prior. Use of the marginal lending facility stayed rose from €107M to €85M.

Corporate issuance saw equity fund inflows of $20.4B in w/e Mar 14th vs outflows of $9.8B in w/e Mar 7th

Looking Ahead

(DE) German Chancellor Merkel to meet France President Macron in Paris

06:00 (EU) Euro Zone Feb Final CPI Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.2% advance; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.0%e v 1.0% advance, M/M: No est v -0.9% prior

06:00 (EU) Euro Zone Q4 Labour Costs Y/Y: No est v 1.6% prior

06:00 (CY) Cyprus Feb CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v -1.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.5% prior

06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing - 06:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) announces upcoming auctions

07:00 (IE) Ireland Jan Trade Balance: No est v €3.9B prior

07:00 (UK) DMO to sell combined £3.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills (£0.5B, £1.0B and £2.0B respectively)

07:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves

07:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing

08:00 (BR) Brazil Jan IBGE Services Sector Volume Y/Y: No est v 0.5% prior

08:30 (US) Feb Housing Starts: 1.29Me v 1.326M prior; Building Permits: 1.32Me v 1.377 prior (revised from 1.396M)

08:30 (CA) Canada Jan Manufacturing Sales M/M: -0.9%e v -0.3% prior

08:30 (CA) Canada Jan Int'l Securities Transactions (CAD): No est v -2.0B prior

(BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) announces upcoming OLO auction for Monday, Mar 19th

09:00 (PL) Poland Jan Current Account: +€1.0Be v -€1.2B prior; Trade Balance: €0.0Me v -€1.3B prior

09:00 (PL) Poland Feb CPI Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%e v 0.9% prior

09:00 (IN) India announces upcoming Bill auction (held on Wed)

09:05 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index

09:15 (US) Feb Industrial Production M/M: +0.4%e v -0.1% prior; Capacity Utilization: 77.7%e v 77.5% prior, Manufacturing Production: 0.5%e v 0.0% prior

10:00 (US) Jan JOLTS Job Openings: 5.917Me v 5.811M prior

10:00 (US) Mar Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 99.3e v 99.7 prior

12:00 (EU) Potential Sovereign ratings after European close: (Austria, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, Luxembourg, Nigeria and Portugal Sovereign debt to be rated by S&P; Italy Sovereign Debt to Be Rated by Moody's; Italy Sovereign Debt to be rated by Fitch

13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count data