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The Swiss franc is higher for a third straight trading day. In the European session, USD/CHF is currently trading at 0.9038, down 0.09% on the day.

Soft CPI cements SNB rate cut

Switzerland’s inflation rate continues to fall and that is raising concerns at the Swiss National Bank. Other central banks are worried about the upside risk of inflation but the SNB is worried about inflation dropping below its target band of between 0% and 2%.

December CPI came in at -0.1% m/m for a third straight month, in line with the market estimate. Annually, CPI ticked lower to 0.6% from 0.7% in November, also matching the market estimate. Food and services prices decelerated, while housing and energy inflation rose to 3.4%, up from 3.3% in November.

The SNB only meets four times a year and the next meeting isn’t until Mar. 30. Still, the soft December CPI report has cemented a rate cut in March, with the markets currently pricing in a 25-basis point cut at 98%. Could we see a larger cut in March? The answer is yes, if inflation continues to decelerate.

The SNB slashed rates by 50 basis points in December and the 0.1% decline in inflation in November likely was an important factor in the oversized rate cut, which was the largest in 10 years. There are two more inflation reports ahead of the March rate meeting and the SNB could respond with another 50-bp cut if inflation is close to the bottom of the 0%-2% target range.

The US releases ISM Services PMI for December, the key services indicator, later today. Over the past two years, the PMI has pointed to expansion in every month but two, pointing to prolonged growth in business activity. The PMI is expected to improve to 53.0, following 52.1 in November.

USD/CHF Technical

• USD/CHF tested resistance at 0.9053 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.9097
• 0.9001 and 0.8957 are the next support levels

Eurozone inflation accelerated again in December, with headline CPI rising to 2.4% yoy, up from November’s 2.2% yoy, as per the flash estimate. That's also the third month rise in inflation since hitting 1.8% yoy back in September.

Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes volatile components such as energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, remained steady at 2.7% yoy for the fourth straight months. Both readings , aligned with forecasts.

Breaking down the components of inflation, services led the way with an annual rate of 4.0%, up slightly from November’s 3.9%. This was followed by food, alcohol, and tobacco, which held steady at 2.7%. Non-energy industrial goods inflation softened marginally to 0.5% from 0.6%, while energy prices rebounded modestly to 0.1% from a sharp -2.0% contraction in the prior month.

Full Eurozone CPI flash release here.

ECB's Consumer Expectations Survey for November 2024 revealed that inflation expectations continued their upward drift, with the median forecast for inflation over the next 12 months ticking up to 2.6%, from 2.5% in October. This marks the second consecutive monthly increase. Longer-term inflation expectations for three years ahead also rose to 2.4%, up from October's 2.1%, reaching a level last seen in July 2024.

Despite the uptick in inflation forecasts, uncertainty around short-term inflation expectations held steady at its lowest point since February 2022. This suggests consumers are becoming more confident in their projections, albeit with inflation still running above ECB's 2% target over the medium term.

On the downside, economic growth expectations took a sharper negative turn, with households predicting a contraction of -1.3% over the next 12 months, compared to the -1.1% forecast in October. This worsening outlook reflects persistent concerns about the Eurozone's economic health amid weak demand and geopolitical risks.

Labor market sentiment also deteriorated, as expectations for unemployment rate 12 months ahead climbed to 10.6%, reversing October's slight improvement to 10.4%.

Full ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 195.87; (P) 196.65; (R1) 198.14; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and further rally is expected with 194.04 support intact. Break of 198.94 will resume the rise from 188.07, as a leg of the corrective pattern from 180.00, and target channel resistance (now at 203.90). However, firm break of 194.04 will turn bias to the downside for 188.07 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.31; (P) 163.17; (R1) 164.64; More...

EUR/JPY's break of 163.30 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 164.98 has completed at 160.89 already. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Firm break of 164.89 will resume the rally from 156.16, as a leg of the corrective pattern from 154.40, and target 166.67. This will now remain the favored case as long as 160.89 support holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8284; (P) 0.8301; (R1) 0.8316; More...

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook as range trading continues. On the upside, firm break of 0.8326 resistance will confirm short term bottoming at 0.8221, ahead of 0.8201 key support. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.8446 structural resistance next.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on whether 0.8201 key support (2022 low) is strong enough to complete the whole down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). In any case, medium term outlook will be neutral at best until decisive break of 0.8624 key resistance. Risk will stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6555; (P) 1.6604; (R1) 1.6685; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral with current recovery. Corrective pattern from 1.6800 could extend further. But strong support could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.6800 at 1.6480 to bring rebound. But near term risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 1.6800 resistance holds, in case of extended recovery. Firm break of 1.6480 will bring deeper correction 61.8% retracement at 1.6283.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD is holding on to 1.5996 key support despite brief breach. Larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.7180 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.5995 will indicate that such up trend has completed and deeper decline would be seen.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9366; (P) 0.9388; (R1) 0.9420; More....

EUR/CHF's corrective rebound from 0.9204 could still extend higher through 0.9440. But upside should be limited by 0.9481 fibonacci resistance. On the downside, firm break of 0.9329 support will argue that the correction has completed, and bring retest of 0.9204 low.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.9204 might extend higher, strong resistance could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 0.9928 to 0.9204 at 0.9481 to limit upside. Down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in favor to resume through 0.9204/9 support zone at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4257; (P) 1.4355; (R1) 1.4429; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for the moment. Pull back from 1.4466 short term top could extend lower to 55 D EMA (now at 1.4120). But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.3418 to 1.4466 at 1.4066 to bring rebound. For now, risk of more consolidations remains as long as 1.4466 holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2005 (2021) is in progress for retesting 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3976 resistance turned holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6201; (P) 0.6251; (R1) 0.6296; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays mildly on the upside for the moment, and further rebound would be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 0.6418). But near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6178 at 0.6469. For now, more consolidation is in favor in the near term as long as 0.6178 holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term consolidation to the down trend from 0.8006, and could have completed at 0.6941 already. Firm break of 0.6169 support will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806 next. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6587) holds.