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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8804; (P) 0.8819; (R1) 0.8829; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside for the moment. Rebound form 0.8688 should have completed at 0.8923. Deeper fall should be seen to 0.8688. Break will resume whole decline from 0.9305 and target 0.8303 key support around. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.8923 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.24% against the USD and closed at 0.7822.

LME Copper prices rose 0.1% or $7.5/MT to $7092.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 1.6% or $34.0/MT to $2143.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7825, with the AUD trading slightly higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

Earlier today, in China, Australia's largest trading partner, the producer price index (PPI) climbed 4.9% on an annual basis in December, rising at its slowest pace in more than a year. The PPI had recorded a gain of 5.8% in the previous month, while investors had envisaged for a rise of 4.8%. Meanwhile, the nation's consumer price index (CPI) advanced less-than-expected by 1.8% on an annual basis in December, compared to market expectations for a rise of 1.9%. The CPI had increased 1.7% in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7800, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7776. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7857, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7890.

Looking ahead, Australia's retail sales figures for November, scheduled to be released overnight, will be on investors' radar.

The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5222; (P) 1.5248; (R1) 1.5279; More....

Focus remains on 1.5226 key support level in EUR/AUD. As long as this support holds, further rise will still be in favor. Break of 1.5430 minor resistance will now indicate completion of the correction from 1.5770 and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.5770. However, sustained break of 1.5226 will indicate larger reversal and target 1.4949 support next.

In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top (2015 high) has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. We'll hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.5226 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 1.6587 will resume long term rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). However, sustained break of 1.5226 will indicate trend reversal and target 1.3624 again.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.28% against the USD and closed at 1.1935, shrugging off upbeat economic releases across the Euro-bloc.

Data revealed that the unemployment rate in the Euro-zone declined to a nearly 9-year low level of 8.7% in November, meeting market expectations and reflecting an enduring labour market growth. Unemployment rate had recorded a level of 8.8% in the previous month.

Separately, Germany's seasonally adjusted industrial production accelerated by the most in over 8 years, after rebounding 3.4% on a monthly basis in November, suggesting that the industrial sector is likely to gain strength in the coming months. Markets had expected industrial production to advance 1.8%, after recording a revised drop of 1.2% in the previous month. Also, the nation's seasonally adjusted trade surplus widened more-than-anticipated to €23.7 billion in November, after recording a surplus of €18.9 billion in the previous month, as growth in exports outpaced that of imports. Market participants were anticipating the nation to post a trade surplus of €21.3 billion.

In the US, data revealed that the NFIB small business optimism index surprisingly eased to a level of 104.9 in December, confounding market expectations for an advance to a level of 107.8. The index had registered a reading of 107.5 in the prior month. On the other hand, the nation's JOLTs job openings unexpectedly slid to a level of 5879.0K in November, hitting a 6-month low level, defying market consensus for a rise to a level of 6025.0K. JOLTs job openings had registered a revised reading of 5925.0K in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.1942, with the EUR trading 0.06% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1914, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1885. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1973, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2003.

In absence of any crucial macroeconomic releases in the Euro-zone today, investors would look forward to the US MBA mortgage applications data followed by the nation's import and export price indices, both for December, slated to release later in the day.

The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.22% against the USD and closed at 1.3539.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3534, with the GBP trading slightly lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3499, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3465. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3575, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3617.

Moving ahead, traders would look forward to UK’s industrial as well as manufacturing production, total trade balance and construction output data, all for November, set to release in a few hours. Moreover, the NIESR GDP estimate for the three months to December, scheduled to release later in the day, will be eyed by investors.

The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.45% against the JPY and closed at 112.64.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 112.26, with the USD trading 0.34% lower against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 111.96, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.67. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 112.76, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.27.

Going ahead, market participants would focus on Japan’s flash leading economic as well as coincident indices, both for November, slated to release in the early hours of tomorrow.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1701; (P) 1.1719; (R1) 1.1756; More...

No change in EUR/CHF's outlook and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. We're holding on to the view that it's close to topping, if not formed. And even in case of another rise, strong resistance should be seen well below 1.2 handle to bring medium term reversal. On the downside, below 1.1670 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.1602 support first. Further break of 1.1602 will indicate reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.1387 and below.

In the bigger picture, while a medium term top could be around the corner, there is no change in the larger outlook. That is, long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015 is still in progress and would extend. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'll hold on to this bullish view and expect another to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Though, we'll reassess the outlook if 1.1198 is firmly taken out.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.62% against the CHF and closed at 0.9834.

Macroeconomic data showed that Switzerland’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 3.0% in December, in line with market expectations. In the prior month, unemployment rate had registered a revised reading of 3.1%.

On the contrary, the nation’s real retail sales slid 0.2% on an annual basis in November, after recording a revised drop of 2.6% in the prior month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9833, with the USD trading a tad lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9785, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9737. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9862, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9891.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.33% against the CAD and closed at 1.2462.

On the macro front, Canada's seasonally adjusted housing starts eased to a level of 217.0K in December, less than market expectations for a drop to a level of 211.0K. In the prior month, housing starts had registered a revised level of 251.7K.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2462, with the USD trading flat against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2414, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2366. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2494, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2526.

Ahead in the day, investors would keep a watch on Canada's new house price index for November.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

Key Highlights

• The British Pound formed a short-term top at 1.3612 and declined against the US Dollar.
• There is a contracting triangle forming with current support at 1.3500 on the 4-hours chart of GBP/USD.
• The pair must hold the 1.3480-1.3500 support in order to initiate a fresh upside move.
• Today, the UK's Industrial Production for Nov 2017 will be released, which is forecasted to increase by 0.3% (MoM).

GBPUSD Technical Analysis

The British Pound traded higher during the start of January 2018 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair traded as high as 1.3612 before starting a downside correction.

During the mentioned correction, the pair broke the 1.3600 and 1.3550 support levels. The pair even settled below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3347 low to 1.3612 high.

However, the downside move was contained by the 1.3500 support area. More importantly, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.3347 low to 1.3612 high is at 1.3480. Therefore, the 1.3480 and 1.3500 support levels are significant for the next move in GBP/USD.

At present, it seems like there is a contracting triangle forming with support at 1.3500 on the 4-hours chart. Should there be a break of 1.3500 followed by a close below 1.3480, the pair could accelerate declines toward the 1.3440 level.

On the flip side, the triangle resistance is at 1.3560. A successful break of 1.3560 would open the doors for a fresh rally towards or above 1.3600.

Today's Industrial Production release for Nov 2017 in the UK may impact the next move in GBP/USD either above 1.3560 or below 1.3480. The market is looking for an increase of 0.3% compared with the previous month.

If the actual beats the forecast, GBP/USD could gain traction and move above 1.3560. On the other hand, disappointing figures will most likely put a lot of pressure on buyers. In the second case, GBP/USD could break the 1.3480 support for more losses toward 1.3440 and 1.3400.