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The Canadian dollar has inched lower in the Friday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2667, down 0.10% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian events on the schedule. In the US, Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment, which is expected to remain at high levels, with an estimate of 100.8 points.

Canadian housing numbers jumped on Wednesday, helping the Canadian dollar hold its own against the greenback. Housing Starts improved to 223 thousand, well above the forecast of 211 thousand. This matched the highest reading since March. There was more good news from Building Permits, which soared 3.8%, crushing the estimate of 0.7%. This followed two sharp declines. On the inflation front, the New Housing Price Index edged higher to 0.2%, matching the estimate.

After staying on the sidelines in October, the Bank of Canada has left the markets guessing regarding a December rate hike. Earlier this week, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz downplayed concerns about low inflation levels, as the inflation target of 2 percent remains elusive. The BoC will have to keep a close eye on developments south of the border. The Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise rates in December, and if the BoC does not match the hike, the Canadian dollar will likely weaken against the greenback. Another headache for the BoC is the threat from the US administration to pull out of the NAFTA agreement, which is a cornerstone of Canada's economy. On his Asian trip, US President Trump has reiterated that he favors bilateral trade agreements, rather than multilateral arrangements. If Trump applies this stance to relations with Canada and Mexico, NAFTA could be in trouble.

The Australian dollar holds in directionless mode after Thursday's action ended in long-legged Doji and upside attempts being repeatedly capped by 200SMA (0.7697) which limited action of this week. Overall picture remains negative and keeps risk on the downside as the pair is in consolidation phase (within 0.7625 and 0.7730) of larger downtrend from 0.8124 (08 Sep peak). Sustained break above 200SMA would ease persisting downside risk and allow for fresh upticks towards key barrier at 0.7730 (consolidation top/falling 20SMA), break of which would generate stronger bullish signal. Otherwise, near term focus is expected to remains at the downside, with firm break below 10SMA (0.7675) to re-expose temporary base at 0.7625 zone (reinforced by weekly 55SMA and Fibo 61.8% of 0.7328/0.8124 ascend).

Res: 0.7697, 0.7730, 0.7760, 0.7793
Sup: 0.7663, 0.7649, 0.7625, 0.7572

The DAX has edged lower on Friday, after three straight losing sessions. Currently, the DAX is at 13,161.25, down 0.17% on the day. On the release front, there are no German or eurozone events on the schedule. The DAX has declined 2.2% this week, and is at its lowest level since October 27.

The cautious ECB finally pressed the trigger on its stimulus program in October, after months of staying on the sidelines. A stronger eurozone economy, led by Germany, enabled the central bank to cut monthly asset purchases from EUR 60 billion to 30 billion, starting next year. However, the Bank also extended the program until September 2018, due to concerns about inflation, which remain well below the ECB target of 2 percent. Some ECB policymakers have expressed reservations about the gradual pace of trimming stimulus, arguing that the Bank should cut the asset purchases at a faster rate. Governing Council member Philip Lane, head of the Irish central bank, said on Thursday that if inflation moves closer to 2 percent, the ECB should tighten at a fast pace. The heads of the German and Austrian central banks, who are also on the Governing Council, went even further, saying that the ECB should have indicated a clear intent to end asset purchases, rather than announce an extension. If eurozone indicators continue to point upwards, ECB President Mario Draghi will be under more pressure to tighten policy.

German coalition talks are continuing, and there is major progress to report this week. After intense negotiations, President Angela Merkel has narrowed some gaps, convincing potential partners to drop key demands. Merkel’s conservative bloc saw its support erode in the election, and will need the support of two smaller parties, the Greens and the liberal FDU, in order to form a government. The Greens have dropped a key environmental demand which involved the phase-out of fossil fuels. For its part, the FDU wanted to slash taxes by 30-40 billion euros, but has agreed to more moderate tax cuts. Merkel has been under pressure from her own bloc to tighten immigration policy, but the Greens are opposed to such a move. If the talks continue to progress, Merkel could have a government in place in December.

EURUSD

The EURUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday topped at 1.1654. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.1670 testing 1.1725 region but as long as stay below 1.1900 I remain bearish and any upside pullback should be seen as a good opportunity to sell with nearest target seen at 1.1450. Immediate support is seen around 1.1615. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.1580/50 support area which need to be clearly broken to the downside to continue the “head and shoulders” bearish scenario.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday topped at 1.3165. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.3180. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.3250/70 but key resistance remains at 1.3330 which need to be clearly broken to the upside to resume the major bullish trend. Immediate support is seen around 1.3085. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.3000 key support which remains a good place to buy with a tight stop loss as a clear break below that level would stop the major bullish trend.

USDJPY

The USDJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 113.09 but still unable to stay consistently below 113.20 support area. The bias is bearish in nearest term as a part of the bearish pin bar scenario but need a clear break below 113.20 to continue the bearish run testing 112.50/25 region. On the upside, 114.50 remains a key resistance and good place to sell with a tight stop loss. Overall I remain neutral.

USDCHF

The USDCHF had a bearish momentum yesterday and now struggling around 0.9940 key support. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 0.9940 testing 0.9835 region. Immediate resistance is seen around 0.9970. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term and keep price inside the range area testing 1.0037 key resistance which need to be clearly broken to the upside to resume the major bullish trend.

The euro continues to have a quiet week, as it stays close to the 1.16 line. In the Friday session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1654, up 0.11% on the day. In economic news, it’s a quiet end to the week, with no German or Eurozone events. The US releases Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment, which is expected to edge lower to 100.8 points.

The ECB tapered its stimulus program in October, after months of staying on the sidelines. A stronger eurozone economy, led by Germany, enabled the cautious central bank to cut monthly asset purchases from EUR 60 billion to 30 billion, starting next year. However, the Bank also extended the program until September 2018, due to concerns about inflation, which remain well below the ECB target of 2 percent. Some ECB policymakers have expressed reservations about the gradual pace of trimming stimulus, arguing that the Bank should cut the asset purchases at a faster rate. Governing Council member Philip Lane, head of the Irish central bank, said on Thursday that if inflation moves closer to 2 percent, the ECB should tighten at a fast pace. The heads of the German and Austrian central banks, who are also on the Governing Council, went even further, saying that the ECB should have indicated a clear intent to end asset purchases, rather than announce an extension. If eurozone indicators continue to point upwards, ECB President Mario Draghi will be under more pressure to tighten policy.

German coalition talks are gaining steam, as President Angela Merkel has convinced potential partners to drop key demands. Merkel’s conservative bloc saw its support erode in the election, and needs the support of two smaller parties – the Greens and the liberal FDU. After intense negotiations, the Greens have dropped a demand on the phase-out of fossil fuels. The FDU wanted to lower taxes by 30-40 billion euros, but has agreed to more moderate tax cuts. Merkel has been under pressure from her own bloc to tighten immigration policy, but the Greens are opposed to such a move. If the talks continue to progress, Merkel could have a government in place in December.

Crude oil has surged and set up a new resistance at 57.92 (08/11/2017 high). The commodity is trading at 1-year high. Expected to show further shot-term bearish consolidation. Indeed the technical structure has a history of decent consolidation phase.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. For the time being the pair lies in an upside momentum. Strong support lies at 35.24 (05/04/2016) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

Silver is heading higher. Hourly support can be found at 16.60 (27/10/2017 low). Hourly resistance is given at 17.46 (13/10/2017 high). Additional support can be found at 16.13 (06/10/2017 low).

In the long-term, the trend is rater negative. Further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

Gold is pushing higher. The technical structure confirms the end of the consolidation phase. Support lies at a distance at 1251 (08/08/2017 high). Resistance is now located at 1288 (20/10/2017).

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

Bitcoin is now consolidating after recent surge. The technical structure shows a tremendous positive short-term momentum. Hourly support can be located at 6027 (30/10/2017 low). Strong support stands very far at 2975 (22/08/2017 low). In the short-term, the digital currency should continue rising.

In the long-term, the digital currency has had an exponential growth. There are decent likelihood that the asset will reach $10'000.

EUR/CHF is riding downtrend channel. Support is given at 1.1610 (27/10/2017 low). Rising channel suggests further bullish momentum.

In the longer term, the technical structure has reversed. Strong resistance is given at 1.20 (level before the unpeg). Yet, the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).