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After reaching its ultimate high of 3.90 in January this year, USD/TRY was set for a price decline. This situation changed in early September when the pair reversed to the upside once again. Thus, an ascending wedge was formed. The rate reached its highest mark since January on Wednesday when it reversed from the 3.90 mark. During this movement, the pair failed to reach the upper line of the steep wedge. This might indicate that a downside breakout might be in sight. In case the current sentiment is to prevail, this breakout might occur late on Friday. However, given the minor potential until 3.9250, the Greenback might still push higher for a few sessions, possibly up to the monthly R1 at 3.9057. It is possible that the pair hinders near the bottom wedge boundary for several hours prior to breaching it. However, when breached, a quite significant fall should be expected.

The Japanese Yen strengthened against the Greenback on the upbeat Japan Eco Watcher's survey. The USD/JPY fell 26 base points or 0.23% to the 113.57 mark, returning to the levels close to Wednesday lows.

The Cabinet Office revealed on Thursday morning that Japanese Eco Watchers' Index, the measure of peoples' evaluation of the country's economy, climbed to the highest level since March 2014. The Economy Watcher's survey showed that the Current Index climbed to 52.2 points in October, surprising forecasts for a drop to 50.8, while the Outlook Index rose notably to the highest level in 46 months of 54.9 in the same period. The economic growth of Japan was expected to cool down in Q3, though experts suggested any weakening to be transitory.

The Kiwi jumped against the US Dollar, following the Reserve Bank's of New Zealand monetary policy announcement. The NZD/USD currency pair added 0.37% or 25 base points to the 0.6951 mark and continued to consolidate in the 0.6956 area.

The RBNZ pushed the Kiwi higher, when saying that the fiscal stimulus from a new government as well as weaker currency are likely to result in a faster inflation growth and earlier rate increase. Meanwhile, the key interest rate remained unchanged at 1.75%. According to the Bank's projections, next rate hike is more likely to be made in H2 of 2019, three months earlier than anticipated before, as changes in government and broader economic policy could boost economic growth.

Currency pair EUR/USD

EUR/USD downtrend is unable to complete the last push towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1470 and is now building a larger bullish retracement. Price is now retesting trend lines (orange) which could form a mild resistance zone.

The EUR/USD seems to be building a wave 4 (green) correction and the Fibonacci levels could act as resistance. A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level makes a wave 4 (green) less likely.

Currency pair USD/JPY

The USD/JPY is now trying to break below the support trend lines (blue/green) but has not managed as yet. The failure to break the 114.50-115 resistance zone so far could be an early indication that wave 1 or A (light purple) has been completed. A bearish break could start a potential wave 3 (pink).

The USD/JPY is behaving choppily on this 1 hour chart and is building a very corrective pattern. Price will need to break the support (green) or resistance (orange) of the wedge before a larger breakout is possible.

Currency pair GBP/USD

The GBP/USD break above the 61.8% Fib makes a wave 4 (orange) less likely. For the moment, the Cable is testing the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (orange) which could act as resistance.

The GBP/USD is building momentum up and down but the overall picture is a range. Price is unable to break the support or resistance trend lines.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.55; (P) 149.32; (R1) 150.11; More

We're slightly favoring the case that fall from 151.92 is extending as the third leg of the correction pattern from 152.82. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 146.92 support and below. At this point, we'd expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 139.29 to 152.82 at 144.45 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 150.31 will turn bias back to the upside to 151.92 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is still expected to resume after corrective pull back from 152.82 completes. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 139.29 will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.55; (P) 131.85; (R1) 132.32; More....

At this point, EUR/JPY is still struggling to take out 131.65 key support decisively. Intraday bias stays neutral first. As noted before. Sustained break of 131.65 will confirm rejection from 134.20 fibonacci level and confirm near term reversal. And, in such case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 127.55 key support level. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, decisive break of 134.39/48 resistance zone is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, even in case of rebound, near term outlook is neutral at best.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 127.55 support will argue that the medium term trend has reversed and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall back to 114.84/124.08 support zone at least.

Asian stock markets were mostly higher during early trading on Thursday, following Wall Street’s modest gains overnight.

The positive momentum from Asia is likely to support European stocks this morning, with the bullish sentiment trickling back down into Wall Street later in the day. World stocks have had a brilliant trading year, thanks to rising confidence over the global economy and optimism towards Donald Trump’s proposed tax plan. While stock markets may venture higher as the current risk-on attitude empowers equity bulls, the question is - for how long?

With concerns rising over possible delays in the U.S tax reforms, equity bears could make an unwelcome appearance, consequently exposing global stocks to downside risks. Investors should also keep in mind that geopolitical tensions and political risk in the background, have the ability spark risk aversion – resulting in market players offloading riskier assets for safe-haven investments.

Trump lands in China...

All eyes remain on Donald Trump’s tour ofAsia as he lands in China today. He is expected to discuss trade and North Korea with Chinese leaders in Beijing. With the U.S. President softening his aggressive rhetoric towards North Korea earlier in the week, by urging the nation to come to the negotiation table, it will be interesting to see how the meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, plays out.

Dollar Index treads water below 95.00

The Dollar Index struggled for direction on Thursday, following reports of possible delays in U.S. tax reforms.

Technical traders will continue to observe how prices behave within the range with support at 94.40 and resistance at 95.10. A decisive break about 95.10 mayinspire bulls to challenge 95.50. Alternatively, an intraday breakdown below 94.70 could open a path towards 94.40 and 94.00, respectively.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8803; (P) 0.8832; (R1) 0.8868; More...

At this point, intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral at the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 0.9032 will confirm completion of the decline from 0.9305. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 0.9305 key resistance. On the on the downside, break of 0.8732 will resume the fall and target 0.8303 key support level instead.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5067; (P) 1.5118; (R1) 1.5149; More....

No change in EUR/AUD's outlook as consolidation from 1.5392 extends. With 1.4949 support intact, outlook remains bullish and further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 1.5392 will resume medium term rise from 1.3624 and target 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4949 at 1.5939 first. However, decisive break of 1.4949 will carry larger bearish implication and turn bias to the downside.

In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. However, break of 1.4949 support will dampen our view and argue that rise from 1.3624 has completed. In that case, EUR/AUD would turn southward for retesting 1.3624 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1579; (P) 1.1590; (R1) 1.1605; More...

No change in EUR/CHF's outlook as correction from 1.1709 is still unfolding. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out. But again, near term outlook stays bullish with 1.1483 support holds. Above 1.1663 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1709 high. Break will resume medium term rally to 1.2 key level. However, break of 1.1483 will be an early sign of reversal. In that case, deeper decline should be seen back to 1.1355 support.

In the bigger picture, long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015 is still in progress. EUR/CHF should now be heading back to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 1.1355 support holds. However, break of 1.1355 will indicate medium term topping. In that case, EUR/CHF should head back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.1104) and possibly below.