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ECB Chief Stated There Is Little Evidence That Negative Interest Rates Have Affected Profitability Of Banks
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.12% against the USD and closed at 1.1596.
The European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi, stated that most of the financial stability issues that were linked to low interest rates did not materialise and there is hardly any evidence that current negative interest rates in the Eurozone are hurting profitability of banks. Draghi also indicated that various reforms undertaken by European banks has strengthened the EU banking sector.
Macroeconomic data revealed that the Eurozone retail sales grew 0.7% on a monthly basis in September due to higher sales of clothing, food and tobacco, beating market expectations for a rise of 0.6%. In the previous month, retail sales had dropped by a revised 0.1%.
On the contrary, Germany’s industrial production declined 1.6% MoM in September, more than market expectations for a fall of 0.9%. In the last month, German industrial production had risen 2.6%. Moreover, the nation’s construction PMI dropped slightly to 53.3 in October from a reading of 53.4 in September.
In the US, JOLTs job openings unexpectedly rose to 6093.0K, topping market expectations of a fall to a level of 6075.0K, thereby indicating a resilient US job market. In the previous month, job openings had reported a revised reading of 6090.0K. Meanwhile, US consumer credit advanced $20.83 billion in
September, compared to a revised increase of $13.14 billion in the prior month. Market anticipation was for consumer credit to rise $17.50 billion.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.1597, with the EUR trading a tad higher from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.1562, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1528. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1623, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.165.
With no major economic data scheduled in the Eurozone today, investors would monitor the US mortgage applications for the week ended 03 November 2017 for further direction.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average and trading above its 20 Hr moving average.

UK Halifax House Prices Advanced At Their Fastest Rate Since February
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP marginally rose against the USD and closed at 1.3173.
Data showed that the UK Halifax house price index rose 4.5% on a yearly basis in the August to October period, meeting market projections. In the July-September period, the house price index had climbed 4.0%.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3169, with the GBP trading a tad lower from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3126, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3083. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3195, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3221.
Going ahead, Britain’s RICS house price balance for October, slated to release overnight, would be assessed by traders.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Japanese Yen Trading Flat In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD marginally declined against the JPY and closed at 113.80.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 113.80, with the USD trading flat against the JPY from yesterday's close.
Earlier today, Japan's preliminary leading economic index eased to 106.6, compared to a reading of 107.2 in the previous month. Market expectation was for the leading economic index to drop to 106.6. Moreover, the nation's coincident index fell to 115.8 in September from a level of 117.7 in the prior month.
Markets were anticipating that the index would decline to a level of 115.9.
The pair is expected to find support at 113.51, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 113.23. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 114.21, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 114.63.
Moving forward, Bank of Japan's (BoJ) latest Summary of Opinions, Japan's trade balance figures and machine orders, both for September, all scheduled to be released overnight, would be on investors' radar.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Swiss Franc Trading Marginally Higher This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.18% against the CHF and closed at 0.9995.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9989, with the USD trading 0.06% lower from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9973, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9956. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0013, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0036.
With no major economic data in Switzerland today, trading trends in the currency pair would be determined by global macroeconomic factors.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

BoC Governor Defended Inflation Target, Stayed Neutral On Interest Rates
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.46% against the CAD and closed at 1.2769.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor, Stephen Poloz, defended the use of inflation targets and restated that policymakers would be cautious about future interest rate moves despite signs of a pick-up in wages. He further stated that fundamental factors of supply and demand, as well as short-term factors are continuing to drive growth in consumer prices. Also, the BoC Governor reiterated the central bank’s statement that it was monitoring wage growth and consumer prices, as well as economic capacity to see how the nation’s economy was adjusting to recent rate hikes.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2768, with the USD trading a tad lower from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2712, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2656. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2822, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2876.
Investors would now closely monitor Canada’s housing starts data for October, coupled with building permits for September, both due later in the day.
The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1554; (P) 1.1585 (R1) 1.1616; More...
With 1.1689 resistance intact, fall from 1.2091 is in progress for 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510. We'd be cautious on strong support from there to bring rebound. But sustained break of 1.1510 will pave the way to next support zone at 1.1118/1267. On the upside, break of 1.1689 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we'd be cautious on 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will suggest that such medium term rebound is completed and could then bring retest of 1.0339 low.


GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3124; (P) 1.3150; (R1) 1.3193; More....
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. Consolidation from 1.3026 is still in progress. In case of stronger rise, upside should be limited below 1.3337 resistance to bring fall resumption. Break of 1.3038 will now resume decline from 1.3651 to 1.2773 key support level. However, decisive break of 1.3337 will indicate that pull back from 1.3651 is completed and medium term rise from 1.1946 is resuming.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, GBP/USD hit strong resistance from the long term falling trend line. Current development is starting to favor that corrective rebound from 1.1946 low has completed at 1.3651. Decisive break of 1.2773 will confirm this bearish case and target a test on 1.1946 low next, with prospect of resuming the low term down trend. Nonetheless, break of 1.3320 resistance will restore the rise from 1.1946 for 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466.


USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9972; (P) 0.9995; (R1) 1.0026; More....
USD/CHF's consolidation from 1.0037 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained above 0.9835 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. On the upside break of 1.0037 will resume whole rally from 0.9420. And with sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.0342 to 0.9420 at 0.9990, USD/CHF should then target a test on 1.0342 key resistance.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that USD/CHF has defended 0.9443 (2016 low) key support level again. Rise from 0.9420 could is a medium term up move and should target a test on 1.0342 high. This represents the upper end of a long term range that started back in 2015. On the downside, break of 0.9736 support is now needed to indicate completion of the rise from 0.9420. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor in medium term.


USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.67; (P) 114.00; (R1) 114.31; More...
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. With 112.95 support intact, near term outlook stays bullish and further rally is in favor. Sustained trading above 114.49 will pave the way to retest 118.65 high. However, break of 112.95 support will now indicate rejection from 114.49 and turn bias to the downside for 111.64 support and below.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming.


USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2713; (P) 1.2766; (R1) 1.2830; More....
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.2916 continues. As long as 1.2598 resistance turned support holds, near term outlook stays bullish. Further rise is expected in the pair. On the upside, break of 1.2916 will extend the rise from 1.2061 to 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. However, sustained break of 1.2598 will argue that rebound from 1.2061 has completed after hitting 55 week EMA (now at 1.2916). Near term outlook will be turned bearish in this case.
In the bigger picture, USD/CAD should have defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we'd favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Rise from 1.2061 medium term bottom should now target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Firm break there will target 1.3793 key resistance next (61.8% retracement at 1.3685). We'll now hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.2450 support holds.


