Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8782; (P) 0.8808; (R1) 0.8825; More...

At this point, intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral at the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 0.9032 will confirm completion of the decline from 0.9305. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 0.9305 key resistance. On the on the downside, break of 0.8732 will resume the fall and target 0.8303 key support level instead.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5098; (P) 1.5136; (R1) 1.5193; More....

No change in EUR/AUD's outlook as consolidation from 1.5392 extends. With 1.4949 support intact, outlook remains bullish and further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 1.5392 will resume medium term rise from 1.3624 and target 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4949 at 1.5939 first. However, decisive break of 1.4949 will carry larger bearish implication and turn bias to the downside.

In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. However, break of 1.4949 support will dampen our view and argue that rise from 1.3624 has completed. In that case, EUR/AUD would turn southward for retesting 1.3624 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1555; (P) 1.1576; (R1) 1.1610; More...

EUR/CHF's correction from 1.1709 extends lower with a break of 1.1559 minor support. Deeper decline might be seen. But again, near term outlook stays bullish with 1.1483 support holds. Above 1.1663 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1709 high. Break will resume medium term rally to 1.2 key level. However, break of 1.1483 will be an early sign of reversal. In that case, deeper decline should be seen back to 1.1355 support.

In the bigger picture, long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015 is still in progress. EUR/CHF should now be heading back to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 1.1355 support holds. However, break of 1.1355 will indicate medium term topping. In that case, EUR/CHF should head back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.1104) and possibly below.

USD/CHF - 0.9992

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Up

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 1.0001

Kijun-Sen level                    : 0.9996

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 1.0003

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 0.9989

Original strategy :

Bought at 0.9950, Target: 1.0050, Stop: 0.9970

Position : - Long at 0.9950

Target :  - 1.0050

Stop : - 0.9970

New strategy  :

Hold long entered at 0.9950, Target: 1.0050, Stop: 0.9970

Position : - Long at 0.9950

Target :  - 1.0050

Stop : - 0.9970

Although the greenback met resistance at 1.0020 yesterday and retreated again, still reckon downside would be limited to 0.9970-75 and bullishness remains for recent rise to resume after consolidation, above said resistance at 1.0029 would bring retest of 1.0038, break there would confirm the rise from 0.9421 low has resumed and extend further gain to 1.0050-55, then towards 1.0075-80 but price should falter below 1.0100 chart resistance.

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 0.9950. Only below said support at 0.9938-48 would abort and signal top is formed instead, risk correction to 0.9920-23 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9737-1.0038) but 0.9885-90 (50% Fibonacci retracement) should limit downside and support at 0.9869 would remain intact. 

GBP/USD - 1.3158

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.3146

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.3138

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.3159

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.3096

Original strategy :

Sold at 1.3175, Target: 1.3045, Stop: 1.3180

Position : - Short at 1.3175

Target :  - 1.3045

Stop : - 1.3180

New strategy  :

Hold short entered at 1.3175, Target: 1.3045, Stop: 1.3180

Position : - Short at 1.3175

Target :  - 1.3045

Stop : - 1.3180

As the British pound found support at 1.3109 yesterday and rebounded again, suggesting further consolidation would be seen but as long as resistance at 1.3178 holds, prospect of another decline remains, below said support at 1.3109 would signal the rebound from 1.3039 has ended, bring further fall to 1.3060-65, then retest of said support. Looking ahead, only a drop below 1.3027 low would confirm early downtrend has resumed for weakness to psychological support at 1.3000, then towards 1.2970-75.  

In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 1.3175. Above 1.3175-80 would risk gain to 1.3200, break there would defer and prolong choppy trading, risk a stronger rebound to 1.3235-40 first.

Short term FTSE Elliott Wave view suggests that decline to 7199.5 ended Primary wave ((4)). Up from there, the rally is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where Intermediate wave (A) ended at 7565.11 and pullback to 7437.42 ended Intermediate wave (B). Internal of Intermediate wave (A) unfolded as an impulse Elliott Wave structure where Minor wave 1 ended at 7327.5, Minor wave 2 ended at 7289.75, Minor wave 3 ended at 7527.72, Minor wave 4 ended at 7493.68, and Minor wave 5 of (A) ended at 7565.11.

Intermediate wave (B) pullback ended at 7437.42 as a double three Elliott Wave structure where Minor wave W ended at 7485.42, Minor wave X ended at 7560.04, and Minor wave Y ended at 7437.42. Intermediate wave (C) is currently in progress as 5 waves where Minor wave 1 ended at 7582.85. Minor wave 2 pullback is in progress and should find buyers at 7479.11 – 7507 area for further upside or at least 3 waves bounce. As far as the dips stays above 10/25 low (7437.41), expect the Index to extend higher. We don’t like selling the Index.

FTSE 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis

Asia Summary

Asian equity markets have opened generally lower, after various indices moved to multi-year highs during the prior session. Markets are, however, off of their worst levels as of the time of writing.

Singapore Air's shares have risen by over 2%, as the company reported an over 190% rise in Q2 profits.

South Korea's Kospi has moved off of the worst levels for the session amid the comments by US President Trump before the country's national assembly.

Samsung Electronics and Hynix have moved higher by over 1%. On Tuesday's, session chipmaker Micron gained over 1.4%. In Hong Kong, shares of China Literature (eBook unit of Tencent), have risen by over 95% in their debut. Incidentally, shares of Tencent have rebounded after opening the session lower and are currently gaining for the 9th straight session.

The Hang Seng Consumer Goods index is higher by more than 0.7%, amid gains in automakers, including Geely Automobile, Brilliance China Auto and BYD.

Toyota Motor has traded higher by over 0.5%, following its most recent financial results and guidance. Mitsubishi Motors has declined by over 4% after reporting first half results. Nissan has declined by over 0.5% after reporting its results and revising its full year operating profit forecast.

In Australia, the ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index has declined by over 0.3%, while Japan's Fast Retailing is also trading lower. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector declined by 0.6% on Tuesday's session.

Commodity-related sectors have also moved lower following the gains seen in the prior session. The Hang Seng and ASX 200 Energy indices have moved somewhat lower, while the ASX 200 Resources index has declined by over 0.7%. On yesterday's session, Comex Copper prices dropped by over 1.7%. Steelmakers in Japan are trading generally lower, with shares of Nippon Steel, JFE and Kobe Steel all lower by over 0.5%.

Japanese mega banks are also declining on the session. Mitsubishi UFJ is lower by over 0.9%. The ASX 200 Financials (ex-REIT) index has gained over 0.6% in Australia. Shares of Commonwealth Bank have gained more than 1.5% on better than expected Q1 earnings.

Some of the other interest rate sensitive sectors are also trading higher. The Australian REIT and Hang Seng Utilities indices have each gained over 0.5% on the session. The S&P 500 Utilities sector gained over 1% on yesterday's session.

The Aussie has traded little changed, while China's 10-year bond yields has risen by over 2bps. China's Oct Trade Surplus missed market expectations as exports were below expectations, while imports were slightly higher

Japanese companies expected to report financial results later today include Japan Display, McDonald's Japan, Mitsubishi Materials, Mixi, Nippon Paper, Olympus, Square Enix, Sumitomo Rubber, Toppan Printing, Tsumura, Universal Entertainment, Yamada Denki and Yomiuri Land

Key economic data

(AU) Australia Oct Foreign Reserves: A$78.1B v A$74.9B prior

(CN) CHINA OCT TRADE BALANCE (CNY) 254.5B V 280.5BE

(CN) CHINA OCT TRADE BALANCE: $38.2B V $39.1BE

Speakers and Press

Japan

(JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Member Funo: Vital to keep pushing strong monetary easing; CPI to rise to 2% target and help stabilize FX

(JP) Japan LDP Tax Chief: Not considering high tax on cigarettes

Korea

(KR) US President Trump calls on North Korea to "make a deal" on its nuclear weapons program - financial press

(KR) US President Trump: North Korea must be denied support, supply and acceptance - speech to Korea National Assembly

Australia/New Zealand

(AU) Australia debt management agency (AOFM) to resume RMBS auctions on Nov 23rd

(AU) Australia PM Turnbull one-seat lower house majority in jeopardy now that Liberal MP John Alexander may be a dual citizen – press (late yesterday)

China/Hong Kong

(CN) China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) draft proposal aims to amend its overseas investment regulations to cover a widely used method of securing loans to buy assets abroad

(CN) China Commerce Ministry: Sets 2018 non-state crude oil import quota at ~142.4M tons

Asian Equity Indices/Futures (23:00ET)

Nikkei -0.1%, Hang Seng +0.4%; Shanghai Composite +0.5%; ASX200 +0.1%, Kospi +0.4%

Equity Futures: S&P500 -0.2%; Nasdaq100 -0.0%, Dax -0.2%; FTSE100 +0.0%

FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (23:00ET)

EUR 1.606-1.1586; JPY 114.02-113.64; AUD 0.7659-0.7640;NZD 0.6919-0.6897

Dec Gold +0.2% at $1,278/oz; Dec Crude Oil -0.3% at $57.01/brl; Dec Copper +0.1% at $3.09/lb

(AU) Australia sells A$1.5B v A$1.5B indicated in 2.25% Nov 2022 bonds; avg yield 2.1756%; bid-to-cover 4.51x

(CN) PBoC OMO: injects CNY160B v CNY180B prior in 7-day, 14-day and 63-day reverse repos; Net drain CNY40B v drain CNY80B prior

USD/CNY *(CN) PBOC SETS YUAN REFERENCE RATE AT 6.6277 V 6.6216 PRIOR

JGB (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥1.874T in 6-month bills; avg yield -0.2376%; bid-to-cover 5.52x

(TH) Thailand sells THB15.4B in 49.6-yr Gov bonds, avg yield 3.4394%

Equities notable movers

Australia/New Zealand

AAD.AU Guides Trading broadly in line with expectations for FY18 Core EBITDA; CEO Simon Kelly resigns, CFO Geoff Richardson appointed interim CEO; -3.5%

JHX.AU To acquire XI (DL) Holdings GmbH for €437M cash from Xella International; -2.4%

Japan

6448.JP Reports Q2 Net ¥22.7B v ¥26.9B y/y; Op ¥31.3B v ¥36.2B y/y; Rev ¥346B v ¥310B y/y; +10%

2531.JP Reports H1 Op ¥6.1B, +17.7% y/y, to cancel 7.35% of shares on Dec 29th; to sell Cho Un unit to Aspirant Group; to buyback 0.99% of shares for ¥2B; +9%

7201.JP Reports H1 Net ¥276.5B v ¥282.4B y/y; Op ¥281.8B v ¥339.7B y/y; Rev ¥5.65T v ¥5.32T y/y; -1.3%

Hong Kong

772.HK Tencent unit China Literature set to open at HK$90/shr v HK$55/shr IPO price; +15.4%

EUR/USD - 1.1590

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.1596

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.1583

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.1636

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.1604

Original strategy  :

Sold at 1.1620, Target: 1.1520, Stop: 1.1620

Position : - Short at 1.1620

Target :  - 1.1520

Stop : - 1.1620

New strategy  :

Hold short entered at 1.1620, Target: 1.1520, Stop: 1.1620

Position : - Short at 1.1620

Target :  - 1.1520

Stop : - 1.1620

Although the single currency fell to as low as 1.1554 yesterday, the subsequent rebound suggests consolidation above this level would b seen, however, reckon upside would be limited and as long as 1.1615-20 holds, bearishness remains for another decline, below said support at 1.1554 would extend recent fall to 1.1520-25, then 1.1500 but near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below latter level. 

In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 1.1620. Above 1.1620-25 would defer and risk test of the upper Kumo (now at 1.1636) would risk another bounce towards 1.1691, however, only break there would abort and suggest low has been formed, bring retracement of recent decline to previous support at 1.1725 (now resistance). 

USD/JPY - 113.90

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 113.84

Kijun-Sen level                  : 113.99

Ichimoku cloud top             : 114.19

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 113.96

Original strategy  :

Bought at 113.85, Target: 114.85, Stop: 113.65

Position :  - Long at 113.85

Target :  - 114.85

Stop : - 113.65

New strategy  :

Hold long entered at 113.85, Target: 114.85, Stop: 113.65

Position :  - Long at 113.85

Target :  - 114.85

Stop : - 113.65

As the greenback met resistance at 114.34 yesterday and slipped again, suggesting caution  on our long position entered at 113.85 but as long as 113.65-70 holds, prospect of another rebound remains, above said resistance at 114.34 would signal the retreat from 114.74 has ended, bring retest of this level, break there would confirm recent upmove from 107.32 low has resumed and extend gain to 115.00 but price should falter well below another previous resistance at 115.51.

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 113.85. Only below support at 113.54 would abort and prolong consolidation, risk weakness to 113.20-25, however, reckon support at 112.96 would remain intact, bring another rise later.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.46% against the USD and closed at 0.7650.

LME Copper prices declined 0.6% or $39.5/MT to $6863.0/MT. Aluminium prices slipped 1.0% or $21.0/MT to $2131.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7646, with the AUD trading slightly lower from yesterday's close.

Earlier today, Australia's largest trading partner, China reported that its trade surplus widened less than expected to ¥254.5 billion in October from ¥193.0 billion reported in the previous month. Market were expecting trade balance to expand to ¥274.4 billion. Additionally, the nation's exports rose less than expected by 6.1% YoY last month, while imports jumped by 15.9%.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7615, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7584. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7689, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7732.

Traders will now look forward to Australia's home loans data for September, due overnight, for further direction.

The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.