Sample Category Title

DAX Edges Lower, German Data Within Expectations

The DAX has posted considerable gains in the Wednesday session. Currently, the DAX is at 13,442.00, down 0.21% on the day. On the release front, German numbers were within expectations. Final Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 60.5, just shy of the estimate of 60.6 points. Unemployment Change declined by 10 thousand, close to the estimate of -11 thousand. Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI improved to 58.5, close to the forecast of 58.6 points.

The DAX posted strong gains on Wednesday, climbing as high as 1.6%, before closing the session up 0.09%. This was in response to positive corporate earnings releases. Automobile sector posted strong gains, led by BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen. The DAX continues to set record highs, and has climbed 3.2% since October 23. The robust German economy has helped boost German stock markets, and with the economy expected to record a strong fourth quarter, the DAX rally could continue.

Strong manufacturing indicators in both Germany and the eurozone have boosted the eurozone economy this year. The positive trend continued in September, as Manufacturing PMIs pointed to expansion early in the fourth quarter. German Manufacturing PMI held at 60.6, its highest level since April 2011. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI isn’t far behind at 58.6, and accelerated for a third straight month. The German employment market remains robust, as unemployment rolls have declined for three straight months. Unemployment has now dropped in all but two readings since June 2015.

The markets have priced in a December rate hike in the US at 96 percent, but what can we expect in 2018? This will depend to a large degree on the new chair of the Fed, who will take over from Janet Yellen in February. Janet Yellen will wind up her 3-year term in February, and she is not expected to be reappointed by President Trump. The front runner is economist Jerome Powell, who is expected to maintain the Fed’s current policy of incremental rates. Trump is expected to make his choice on Thursday, ahead of his trip to Asia.

Euro Steady As Eurozone, German Mfg. Reports Within Expectations

The euro continues to have a quiet week. In the Thursday session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1647, up 0.24% on the day. On the release front, there were a host of Manufacturing PMIs out of the eurozone. German Final Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 60.5, just shy of the estimate of 60.6 points. Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI improved to 58.5, close to the forecast of 58.6 points. German Unemployment Change declined by 10 thousand, close to the estimate of -11 thousand. In the US, today’s highlight is unemployment claims, which is expected to tick upwards to 235 thousand. Employment data will be in the spotlight on Friday, as the US releases Average Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. As well, we’ll get a look at ISM Nonfarm Manufacturing PMI.

A strong manufacturing sector has been an important factor in the stronger eurozone economy, and September Manufacturing PMIs continue to point to expansion early in the fourth quarter. The German Manufacturing PMI held at 60.6, its highest level since April 2011. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI isn’t far behind at 58.6, and accelerated for a third straight month. The German employment market remains robust, as unemployment rolls have declined for three straight months. Unemployment has now dropped in all but two readings since June 2015.

There were no surprises from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, as policymakers held the benchmark rate at 1.25 percent. The Fed indicated that a rate increase is very likely at the December meeting, and was careful not to change any of the wording in its statement regarding future rate hikes. The rate statement noted that hurricanes had caused a decline in payrolls in September, but the Fed did not expect the hurricanes to “materially alter the course of the national economy over the medium term.” The markets appear in line with this sentiment, as the forecast for Friday’s nonfarm payrolls is a robust 311 thousand, after a dismal decline of 33 thousand in September.

The markets have priced in a December rate hike in the US at 96 percent, but what can we expect in 2018? This will depend to a large degree on the new chair of the Fed, who will take over from Janet Yellen in February. Janet Yellen will wind up her 3-year term in February, and she is not expected to be reappointed by President Trump. The front runner is economist Jerome Powell, who is expected to maintain the Fed’s current policy of incremental rates. Trump is expected to make his choice on Thursday, ahead of his trip to Asia.

CRUDE OIL Starting A Consolidation Process

Crude Oil has surged and set up a new resistance at 55.22 (.01/11/2017 high). The commodity is monitoring 1-year high. Expected to show further shot-term bearish consolidation. Indeed the technical structure has a history of decent consolidation phase.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. For the time being the pair lies in an upside momentum. Strong support lies at 35.24 (05/04/2016) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

SILVER Surging

Silver has surged. Hourly support can be found at 16.60 (27/10/2017 low). Hourly resistance is given at 17.46 (13/10/2017 high). Additional support can be found at 16.13 (06/10/2017 low).

In the long-term, the trend is rater negative. Further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

GOLD Riding Higher

Gold remains weak. The technical structure confirms the end of the bearish trend. Support lies at a distance at 1251 (08/08/2017 high). Resistance is now located at 1288 (20/10/2017).

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

BITCOIN Breaking $7000

Bitcoin has set up a new all-time high. Strong support stands very far at 2975 (22/08/2017 low). The technical structure shows a very positive short-term momentum. Hourly support can be located at 6027 (30/10/2017 low). In the shortterm, the digital currency should continue rising.

In the long-term, the digital currency has had an exponential growth. There are decent likelihood that the asset will reach $10'000.

EUR/CHF Pushing Higher Within Former Uptrend Channel

EUR/CHF is back within former uptrend channel. Support is given at 1.1610 (27/10/2017 low). Rising channel suggests further bullish momentum.

In the longer term, the technical structure has reversed. Strong resistance is given at 1.20 (level before the unpeg). Yet, the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/GBP Ready For Further Downside

EUR/GBP is showing downside pressures. As long as prices are below the resistance at 0.9046 (05/09/2017 high), the short-term technical structure is biased to the downside. Hourly support is given at a distance at 0.8746 (27/09/2017 low).

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 (psychological level).

AUD/USD Pausing Around 0.7700

AUD/USD continues to bounce back but downside pressures are still lively. Hourly resistance is given at 0.7897 (13/10/2017 high). Further. Expected to show renewed pressures towards key support at 0.7571 (05/07/2017 low).

In the long-term, the trend is turning positive. Key supports stands at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD Ready For Another Leg Higher

USD/CAD is holding above former resistance at 1.2778 (15/08/2017 high). This suggests an extension of bullish momentum. Hourly support lies at 1.2331 (26/09/2017 high). Expected to show continued short-term bullish pressures.

In the longer term, the pair has broken longterm support that can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head further lower.