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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.06% against the USD and closed at 1.3125 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3141, with the GBP trading 0.12% higher from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3093, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3045. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3166, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3191.

Later in the day, market participants will look forward to the release of UK’s net consumer credit and mortgage approvals data, both for September, for further direction.

The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.37% against the JPY and closed at 113.70 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 113.58, with the USD trading 0.11% lower from Friday’s close.

Overnight data indicated that Japan’s retail trade rose 2.2% on a yearly basis in September, compared to a revised advance of 1.8% in the previous month. Market anticipation was for retail trade to rise 2.3%.

The pair is expected to find support at 113.26, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 112.93. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 114.18, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 114.77.

Going ahead, investors would focus on Japan’s jobless rate and preliminary industrial production data, both for September, scheduled to release overnight.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD marginally declined against the CHF and closed at 0.9980 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9973, with the USD trading 0.07% lower from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9949, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9926. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0017, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0062.

Market participants will now await the release of Switzerland’s KOF leading indicator for October, due to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.21% against the CAD and closed at 1.2829 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2826, with the USD trading 0.02% lower from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2784, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2741. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2893, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2959.

Amid no major macroeconomic releases in Canada today, investors will focus on global macroeconomic factors for further cues.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.49; (P) 132.22; (R1) 132.68; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment with focus on 131.65 key support. Decisive break there will confirm rejection from 134.20 fibonacci level. That will also complete and double top pattern (134.39, 134.48) and confirms near term reversal. 55 day EMA will also be firmly taken out. In that case, deeper decline should be seen back to 127.55 key support. On the upside, decisive break of 134.39/48 resistance zone is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, even in case of rebound, near term outlook is neutral at best.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 127.55 support will argue that the medium term trend has reversed and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall back to 114.84/124.08 support zone at least.

Currency pair EUR/USD

The EUR/USD broke below the support trend line and zone (dotted blue) yesterday and has space to continue towards the 38.2% Fib of wave 4 vs 3 (light purple). A bullish correction within wave 4 (blue) should take price back to the 23.6%-50% Fibonacci levels, which could act as a resistance zone.

The EUR/USD is showing strong bearish momentum and has most likely completed a wave 3 (blue). An ABC (green) could be unfolding within the wave 4 (blue).

Currency pair GBP/USD

The GBP/USD remains choppy but a wave 5 (green) still seems most likely due to the wave bearish impulse. A break below the support line (blue) would confirm a bearish continuation.

The GBP/USD bearish momentum is probably a wave 1 (orange) which could see a bounce and a retracement for a wave 2 (orange).

Currency pair USD/JPY

The USD/JPY has reached the main target zone at 114.50-115, but a break below the support trend line (green) is needed before a larger wave 2 or B (light purple) becomes more likely.

The USD/JPY is either in a wave 1-2 (blue) or in an ending diagonal (grey).

The forex markets opened the week rather steadily. Euro recovers mildly as there was no escalation in Catalonia tension. sacked regional president Carles Puigdemont remained calm and called for peaceful "democratic opposition" the Madrid's takeover. Dollar pares back some more of recent gains as markets await an eventful week. It's repeatedly reported that US President Donald Trump favors Fed Governor Jerome Powell for the job of Fed Chair after Janet Yellen's term expires early next year. And Powell is seen as sone one who will speed up the pace of tightening. But it's far from being certain as some unnamed persons close to Trump were quote saying he changes his minds everyday.

Meanwhile, it's reported in Japan over the weekend that BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remains the leading candidate to renew his term next year. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's has already took renewed mandate on his Abenomics after recent landslide victory in the snap election. And no matter who will take the job of BoJ Governor, the ultra loose monetary policies will continue. Elsewhere, commodity currencies remain the weakest ones and will release need some strong economic data to give them support for rebound.

A busy week ahead with BoJ, Fed, BoE and NFP featured

It's a very busy week ahead. Three central banks will meet including BoJ, Fed and BoE.

BoE rate decision will catch most attention as it's widely expected to hike interest rate for the first time in a decade. The Bank Rate would be raised by 25bps to 0.50%. The core question is whether this is a one-off hike. In our view, it will be a one-off as the Bank Rate will be brought back to pre-Brexit referendum level. The impact of the voting decision is largely absorbed by the monetary stimulus as well as depreciation in Sterling. BoE policy makers would be hesitate to make any more move before getting a clearer picture on Brexit. With that in mind, the vote split of the decision is the first key point to watch. The tighter the decision, the more unlikely for another hike in near term. In addition, BoE will release the quarterly inflation report. Revision in inflation projection there will tell us how policymakers general feel about the recent surge in inflation.

FOMC meeting is possibly a non-event this week. Fed is widely expected to hike interest rates again in December. Fed fund futures are pricing in 97.8% chance for a 25bps hike to 1.25-1.50% in December. There is practically no chance for a change this week. The accompanying statement will be watched but shouldn't contain any surprise. Markets' focus will likely be more on news regarding the next Fed chair, Jerome Powell or John Taylor? Tax cuts, and economic data like ISM indices and non-farm payroll are the more important ones to watch.

BoJ will also keep monetary policies unchanged this week. The focus is on whether the central bank will downgrade inflation projections again.

On the data front, US data like ISMs and NFP will be the key to watch. Dollar was the strongest one last week as tax cut hopes and strong data bolster the case for December hike. Fed policymakers are projecting three more hikes next year but will need favorable data and developments to solidify the case. Sterling was also strong despite slow progress in Brexit negotiation. The Pound will also look into PMIs to be released this week. Eurozone will release GDP and CPI but that's unlikely to help the Euro after the dovish reactions to ECB last week. Meanwhile, commodity currencies will look into their own data for support after steep selloff. Canada GDP, Australia trade balance and retail sales, New Zealand employment, as well as China PMIs will be closely watched.

Here are some highlights for the week ahead:

• Monday: German retail sales, CPI; Swiss KOF leading indicator; UK mortgage approvals, M4; US personal income and spending
• Tuesday: Japan households spending, unemployment rate, industrial production, housing starts, BoJ rate decision; New Zealand building permits; China PMIs; French GDP; Eurozone GDP, unemployment rate, CPI; Canada CDP, IPPI and RMPI; US employment cost, S&P Case Shiller house price, Chicago PMI; consumer confidence
• Wednesday: New Zealand employment; China PMI manufacturing; Swiss PMI manufacturing; UK PMI manufacturing; US ADP employment, ISM manufacturing, construction spending, FOMC rate decision
• Thursday: Japan monetary base, consumer confidence; Australia trade balance, building approvals; Swiss SECO consumer confidence, retail sales; German unemployment; UK construction PMI; BoE rate decision; US jobless claims, non-farm productivity
• Friday: Australia retail sales; UK PMI services; Canada employment, trade balance; US trade balance, non-farm payroll; ISM services, factory orders

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.49; (P) 132.22; (R1) 132.68; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment with focus on 131.65 key support. Decisive break there will confirm rejection from 134.20 fibonacci level. That will also complete and double top pattern (134.39, 134.48) and confirms near term reversal. 55 day EMA will also be firmly taken out. In that case, deeper decline should be seen back to 127.55 key support. On the upside, decisive break of 134.39/48 resistance zone is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, even in case of rebound, near term outlook is neutral at best.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 127.55 support will argue that the medium term trend has reversed and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall back to 114.84/124.08 support zone at least.

Economic Indicators Update

USD/CHF - 0.9972

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Up

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 0.9978

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.0003

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 0.9956

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 0.9929

Original strategy :

Buy at 0.9920, Target: 1.0030, Stop: 0.9885

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 0.9920, Target: 1.0030, Stop: 0.9885

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Dollar’s retreat after rising to 1.0038 on Friday has retained our view that minor consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to the upper Kumo (now at 0.9956) is likely, below would bring correction to previous resistance at 0.9940, however, reckon 0.9920-25 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9737-1.0038) would limit downside and bring another rise, above said resistance at 1.0038 would extend recent rise from 0.9421 low to 1.0050-55, having said that, overbought condition should limit upside to 1.0075-80 and price should falter below 1.0100 resistance and bring retreat later.

In view of this, we are looking to buy dollar again on pullback as 0.9920-25 should limit downside, bring another rise later. Below 0.9885-90 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9737-1.0038) would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, risk test of support at 0.9869.

GBP/USD - 1.3146

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.3134

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.3110

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.3195

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.3167

Original strategy :

Sell at 1.3180, Target: 1.3080, Stop: 1.3215

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.3225, Target: 1.3125, Stop: 1.3260

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As cable found support at 1.3070 on Friday and has rebounded, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and corrective bounce to 1.3175-80, then 1.3200 cannot be ruled out, however, still reckon upside would be limited to 1.3220-25 and bring another decline later, below 1.3100 would bring test of said support at 1.3070, break there would extend the erratic decline from 1.3338 to 1.3050, then towards recent low at 1.3027.

In view of this, we are looking to sell cable on further subsequent recovery as 1.3220-25 should limit upside. Above 1.3250 would dampen this bearish view and prolong consolidation, risk rebound to resistance at 1.3279-87 first.

EUR/USD - 1.1616

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.1606

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.1609

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.1731

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.1686

Original strategy  :

Sell at 1.1685, Target: 1.1585, Stop: 1.1720

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.1685, Target: 1.1585, Stop: 1.1720

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the single currency recovered after falling to 1.1574 on Friday, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and corrective bounce to 1.1645-50 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon upside would be limited to the lower Kumo (now at 1.1686) and bring another decline later, below said support at 1.1574 would extend recent decline from 1.2093 top to 1.1550-55 but loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.1520-25 and reckon 1.1500 would hold from here.

In view of this, we are looking to sell euro on subsequent recovery as the lower Kumo (now at 1.1686) should limit upside and bring another decline. Only above previous support at 1.1725 (now resistance) would signal low is formed instead, bring retracement of recent decline to 1.1750-55 first.