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EUR/GBP drifting high but well within recent ranges. The pair has broken the resistance at 0.8899 (19/09/2017 low). The very short-term technical structure is biased to the upside. Hourly support is given at 0.8906 (09/10/2017).

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 (psychological level).

AUD/USD is strengthening breaking above rising channel top. Next resistance is given at 0.7875 (04/10/2017 high). Support lies at at 0.7733 (06/10/2017 low). Expected to show continued increase.

In the long-term, the trend is turning positive. Key supports stands at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD continues to bounce within uptrend channel. Strong support is located at a distance at 1.2062 (08/09/2017 low). Hourly support lies at 1.2331 (26/09/2017 high). Resistance is given at 1.2663 (31/08/2017 high). Expected to show continued short-term bullish pressures within uptrend channel.

In the longer term, the pair has broken longterm support that can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head further lower.

USD/CHF has breached the channel support at 0.9724 However, prices have thus failed to hold below that level and a key support stands at 0.9712. The break of the hourly resistance at 10.9741 (11/10/2017 high) suggests an improving short-term buying interest. Expected to show continued bullish pressures within uptrend channel.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/JPY has failed to hold above former resistance given at 113.26 (27/09/2017 low). Support is located at 111.99 (16/10/2017 low). Downside risks are rising as markets may soon take some short-term profit.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 99.02 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 125.86 (05/06/2015 high) seems unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

GBP/USD continues to rise after the break of falling channel. A support can be found at 1.3237 (intraday low). Hourly resistances stand at 1.3265 (intraday high).

The long-term technical pattern is reversing. The Brexit vote had paved the way for further decline. Long-term support can be found at 1.1841 (07/10/2017 low). Long-term resistance given around 1.35 is at stake and indicates a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

EUR/USD continues to improve and is now close to the key resistance at 1.1890 (25/09/2017 high). Strong support is given at a distance at 1.1662 (17/08/2017 low).

In the longer term, the momentum is now turning largely positive. We favour a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2252 (25/12/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

AUDUSD made a new sharp and strong drop at the end of last week, which we labeled it as sub-wave 5 of three. As such, current rise is seen as wave 4) in progress if we consider a broken trendline from black waves 2 and 4. That said, we are tracking a new corrective rally that may retrace back to the area of a former wave four to 0.7874 from where bears may fall to a new low. Overall trend on Aussie is still seen bearish as long as pair trades beneath 0.7953.

AUDUSD, 4H

The EUR/USD is in a strong bullish trend and as we can see on the chart the price has pierced through 1.1800 driven by risk sentiment and the Spain situation. Today FOMC meeting minutes are the most important event so we might see two-way price action. At this point the price is still going up straight from the trend line and 23.6 fib. Continuation above 1.1855 aims for 1.1880 and 1.1895. However, if the price gets in a retracement phase watch for 1.1760-75 zone (D L4, EMA89, trend line, ATR low, W H3). Targets remain the same if the pair breaks 1.1810 on the bounce up. Only a move below 1.1750 might make a bearish breakout towards 1.1720 and 1.1695.

H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)

D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)

D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)

PPR - Progressive Polynomial Channel

POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

EUR/GBP         –  0.8964

Although the single currency fell marginally to 0.8746, as euro found good support there and has staged a strong rebound, suggesting at least the first leg of decline from 0.9307 has ended at 0.8746, hence upside bias is seen for this rebound from 0.8746 to bring retracement of the fall from 0.9307, then further gain to 0.9045-50 and possibly 0.9080 would be seen, however, reckon upside would be limited to previous support at 0.9115-20 and price should falter well below resistance at 0.9203, bring another decline later this month. 

Our latest preferred count is that the wave V of a 5-wave series from 0.5682 ended at 0.9805 earlier and major from there has possibly ended at 0.8067 as A-B-C-X-A-B-C. We are keeping our view that the entire correction from 0.9805 has possibly ended at 0.7756 and as labeled as the attached daily chart and impulsive move from 0.9084 has ended at 0.6938 as a 5-waver which marked as the (C) wave, recent impulsive rise is labeled as (I) (II), (i) (ii) series, indicated upside target at 0.9084 had been met, the retreat from 0.9576 suggest wave iii ended there and next upside target for wave v of (III) should head towards 0.9700 but price should falter well below parity .

On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 0.8910-15 cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to 0.8870-80 and bring another rebound later. Below 0.8800-05 would suggest the rebound from 0.8746 has ended instead, bring weakness to 0.8770-75, break there would confirm and bring retest of 0.8746, once this support is penetrated, this would signal the decline from 0.9307 top has resumed for correction of early uptrend to 0.8690-95 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8312-0.9307) and possibly towards previous support at 0.8652.

Recommendation: Exit short entered at 0.8895 and buy at 0.8880 for 0.9080 with stop below 0.8780

Euro's long term uptrend started in Feb 1981 at 0.5039 and is unfolding as a (A)-(B)-(C) move with (A): 0.8433 (Feb 1993), (B): 0.5682 (May 2000) and impulsive wave (C) should have ended at 0.9805 with wave III ended at 0.7254 (May 2003), triangle wave IV at 0.6536 (23 Jan 2007) and wave V as well as wave (C) has ended at 0.9805.

We are keeping an alternate count that only wave III ended at 0.9805 and the correction from there is the wave IV and has possibly ended at 0.6936, however, it is necessary to see a daily close above resistance at 0.9576 in order to change this to be the preferred count.