Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.11; (P) 148.48; (R1) 149.12; More

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 146.92 temporary low. Another decline is expected with 149.73 intact. Below 146.92 will target 61.8% retracement of 139.29 to 152.82 at 144.45. Such decline is seen as a correction and we'd look for strong support from 144.45 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 149.73 support turned resistance will argue that the pull back is completed and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 152.82 high. However, sustained break of 144.45 will put 139.29 key support in focus.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is still expected to resume after corrective pull back from 152.82 completes. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 139.29 will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

In line with expectations, the pair continued to move in a limbo between the weekly R1 and R2 in anticipation of release of the FOMC meeting minutes. As soon as it became clear that there remains some uncertainty about the upcoming interest rate hike, the buck started to lose value against the gold. As a result, the rate reached and even slightly overstepped the 1,294.86 mark. Accordingly, the pair is likely to continue the surge at least in the first half of the day before the US PPI data release. This assumption is partially based on the 55-hour SMA, which is rising together with the pair, and partially on two recently formed ascending channels. However, the fact that an area near 1,295.50 is blocked by the 55-day SMA suggests that the rate might be actually forced to turnaround.

EUR/USD fell slightly after the weak JOLTS openings report, though the decrease was offset twice as the pair remained in the bullish run, which was confirmed after the FOMC Meeting Minutes' release. Following the second publication, the US Dollar lost against the European single currency 10 base points to return in the area above the 1.8550 mark.

The JOLTS survey showed that the number of the US job openings declined to 6.08M in August, from a downwardly revised figure of 6.14M in the prior month, facing negative impacts coming from the Hurricane Harvey. Subsequent release of the Fed meeting minutes revealed that some central bankers remained concerned on persistently weak inflation growth, which is likely to determine the need of the interest rate hike.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.75; (P) 133.12; (R1) 133.79; More...

EUR/JPY is staying in consolidation in range of 131.73/134.39 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Near term outlook remains bullish as long as 131.69 holds. Sustained break of 134.20 fibonacci level will extend larger up trend to 141.04 resistance next. However, break of 131.69 will be an early sign of medium term reversal and will target 127.55 key support level instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 127.55 support will argue that the medium term trend has reversal and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall.

GBP/JPY - 148.65

New strategy :

Stand aside

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

Although sterling edged higher again today and near term upside risk remains for the rebound from this week’s low of 146.95 to extend gain to 149.50-55, as this move is viewed as retracement of recent decline, reckon upside would be limited to 149.90-00 and resistance at 150.25 should hold from here, bring another decline later.

On the downside, below 147.80-85 would suggest top is formed, bring weakness to 147.30-35, break there would signal the rebound from 146.95 has ended, bring retest of this level but break there is needed to confirm the fall from 152.85 top has resumed for retracement of recent upmove to 146.60-65 and then 146.00, having said that, loss of momentum should limit downside and previous support at 145.25 should remain intact.

Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.


Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5169; (P) 1.5204; (R1) 1.5264; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral with a temporary top in place at 1.5241. Further rise is expected as long as 1.5108 minor support holds. Above 1.5241 will extend the medium term rise from 1.3624. In that case, EUR/AUD should target 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4421 at 1.5411 first. Break will target 100% projection at 1.6023 next. On the downside, below 1.5108 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn bias to the downside.

In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 support will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

EUR/JPY - 133.17

Original strategy:

Sold at 132.40, stopped at 133.00

Position: - Short at 132.40
Target: -
Stop: - 133.00

New strategy :

Stand aside

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

The single currency has surged again today after finding renewed buying interest at 132.45 yesterday, dampening our bearishness and upside risk remains for the rebound from 131.75 to extend gain to 133.50-60, however, break of 134.00 is needed to signal correction from 134.41 has ended at 131.75, bring retest of this recent high. Once this level is penetrated, this would confirm recent uptrend has resumed and extend headway to 135.00-10 and later 135.50-60.

In view of this, would not chase this move here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Below said support at 132.45 would suggest top is possibly formed and revive near term bearishness for weakness to  132.00, then test of previous support at 131.75 which is likely to hold from here.  

Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.

Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i - 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii - 97.03, wave iv - 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8927; (P) 0.8941; (R1) 0.8956; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. Another rise will be mildly in favor as long as 0.8849 minor support holds. Above 0.8991 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8745 at 0.9091. Break there will target a retest on 0.9305 high. However, break of 0.8849 will suggests that rebound form 0.8745 has completed. And, intraday bias will be flipped back to the downside to extend the fall from 0.9305 through 0.8745.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of another fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.9303 low. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

USDJPY remains rangebound since the beginning of this year although the recent bullish phase that took prices to the mid-113 handle has shifted to neutral as upside momentum ran out of steam.

The market appears to be finding support at the 200-day moving average (MA) and falling below 111.84 would mean a short-term top is in place at Friday’s 113.43 high.

The immediate risk is tilted to the downside with scope to target the key 111 level around the 100-day MA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the September-October rally. Further weakness from here has the potential to push prices down to 108.

A rise above the 114 level would shift focus back to the upside and help USDJPY break out of the broader range.

But the short-term bias remains neutral to bearish as trend indicators are essentially flat and MACD has faded its bullish momentum to a neutral one. RSI has turned back down. The overall alignment of the moving averages is bearish.

AUD/USD – 0.7786

Original strategy:

Sell at 0.7860, Target: 0.7700, Stop: 0.7920

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

New strategy :

Sell at 0.7875, Target: 0.7700, Stop: 0.7935

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

As aussie has rebounded again today, suggesting near term upside risk remains for the corrective bounce from 0.7733 temporary low to bring retracement of recent decline, hence gain to 0.7850 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon resistance at 0.7875 would limit upside and bring another decline later, below 0.7770-75 would signal top is formed, bring retest of said support at 0.7733, break there would add credence to our view that the fall from 0.8125 top is still in progress for weakness to 0.7700-10 but loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.7660-65 and reckon 0.7600-10 would hold from here, bring rebound later.

In view of this, we are looking to sell aussie again on further recovery as said resistance at 0.7875 should limit upside and bring another decline. Above previous support at 0.7908 (now resistance) would defer and risk a stronger rebound to 0.7950 but resistance at 0.7986 should remain intact and bring another decline later. 

On the 4-hour chart, recent upmove from 0.7329 is unfolding as an impulsive rise with wave 3 as well as smaller degree wave (iii) extending, only minor wave v of (iii) has ended at 0.8125, hence bullishness remains for this move to extend headway to 0.8200, then towards 0.8300, however, reckon upside would be limited to 0.8400 and the final wave 5 should falter below 0.8500, bring correction later.