Sample Category Title

Bitcoin is definitely on a strong momentum. Strong support is given at 2975 (22/08/2017 low). Sell walls around $4000 have been broken. Key resistance can be located at 4921 (01/09/2017 high). The road is wide open for further increase.

In the long-term, the digital currency has had an exponential growth. There are decent likelihood that the asset will reach $10'000.

EUR/CHF is trading into a new short-term trend. Yet momentum is not "that" strong at the moment. Strong resistance lies at a distance at now at 1.1623 (22/09/2017 high). Support is given at 1.1388 (02/09/2017 low). Downside risk is very likely.

In the longer term, the technical structure has reversed. Strong resistance is given at 1.20 (level before the unpeg). Yet, the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/GBP is trading higher. The pair has broken the resistance at 0.8899 (19/09/2017 low). The very short-term technical structure is now biased to the upside. Hourly support is given at 0.8746 (27/09/2017).

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 (psychological level).

AUD/USD continues to push lower over the past weeks. Hourly resistance is given at 0.7883 (27/05/2017 high). The pair is approaching support at 0.7786 (18/07/2017 low). Expected to show continued decline.

In the long-term, the trend is turning positive. Key supports stands at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD continues to move higher within uptrend channel. Strong support is located at a distance 1.2062 (08/09/2017 low). Hourly support lies at 1.2331 (26/09/2017 high). Resistance is given at 1.2663 (31/08/2017 high). Expected to show continued short-term bullish pressures.

In the longer term, the pair has broken longterm support that can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head further lower.

USD/CHF is trading higher within short-term uptrend channel. Demand has been increasing since September. Closest resistance is given at 0.9808 (30/05/2017 high). There are nonetheless decent downside risks. Strong support is given at 0.9421 (03/05/2017). Expected to show continued bullish pressures.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/JPY has broken resistance given at 113.26 (27/09/2017 low) before bouncing lower. Strong support is located at a distance at 111.12 (20/09/2017 low). The pair is trading in a range above hourly support at 112.22 (29/09/2017 low). Downside risks are nonetheless rising as markets may soon take some short-term profit.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 99.02 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 125.86 (05/06/2015 high) seems unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

GBP/USD is consolidating higher within downtrend channel. The pair lies in a downtrend channel since the pair has topped 1.3657 (20/09/2017 high). Expected to show continued bearish pressures. Wide-open for further decrease.

The long-term technical pattern is reversing. The Brexit vote had paved the way for further decline. Long-term support can be found at 1.1841 (07/10/2017 low). Long-term resistance given around 1.35 is at stake and indicates a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

EUR/USD is way into a bearish trend. Hourly resistance can be found at 1.1833 (29/09/2017 high). Strong support is given at a distance at 1.1662 (17/08/2017 low). Expected to show continued short-term bearish pressures.

In the longer term, the momentum is now turning largely positive. We favour a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2252 (25/12/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

British pound's post-BOE rally has more than evaporated over the past two weeks. Political uncertainties and the lack of progress in Brexit negotiations are the key reasons driving sterling lower. Despite mounting pressure on PM Theresa May to step down, we believe it would be hard to materialize as there lacks charismatic leaders within the Conservative Party and the move might trigger a snap election and a Labor government. Progress of Brexit talks has remained slow. The next round of talk in Phase I would begin this week, amidst EU Parliament's overwhelming vote that previous talks has not brought sufficient progress. EU member states are due to vote next week to decide whether the talk can progress to the next phase. It is getting likely that BOE would increase the Bank rate by +25 bps in November. However, we do not consider this as the beginning of a tightening cycle as UK's macroeconomic developments remains fragile.

May to Step Down?

PM Theresa May is facing increasing pressure to resignation after her Conservative conference speech last week. It is widely believed that the key problem is not the content of the speech, but the way of delivery. It was reported that 30 of the Conservative MPs have agreed to sign a letter demanding her to step down. Under Conservative Party rules, 15% of its MPs, i.e.: 48 out of the current 316 MPs, are needed to trigger a confidence of leadership vote. It is undeniable that May has been losing support both in the party and amongst the general public. However, we doubt if she would be replaced in the medium-term. First, it is highly uncertain that who would succeed May after she quits. There lacks charismatic political leaders within Tories. The latest poll shows that Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Davis are the top 3 potential candidates. However, we believe the majority of MPs do not prefer someone that are considered 'radical' or 'extreme' which might further delay the Brexit progress. Second, it is a real concern that May's resignation, which could eventually lead a snap election and a Labor government. According to Yougov's survey on October 4-5, 42% of Britons would vote for Labors if there were are general election held tomorrow, compared with 40% for Tories. Indeed, support for Labours has been above that for Tories since the snap election in June. Yet, May still makes a better PM than Jeremy Corbyn (36%:33%), as suggested in the latest poll. We do not think Tories would take the risk to pave the way for another snap election.

Lackluster Brexit Talks

Another issue weighing on sterling is the lack of progress in Brexit negotiation. Last week, the EU parliament voted 557-92 to decided that Brexit talks have not made 'sufficient progress' on Phase I which includes negotiations on citizens rights, the financial settlement and Ireland. As such, the parties would be unable to move on to Phase II, which involves the most controversial negotiations of trade and transitional agreement. The next round (Phase I) of Brexit talks should start this week, while the European Council summit will take place on October 19-20, when member states will vote to decide if 'sufficient progress' has been made in Phase I negotiations.

BOE

The market has priced in a 69% chance of a BOE rate hike in November as the central bank warned in September that the market had underestimated the rate hike schedule and as UK's CPI jumped to +2.9% in August. Even if BOE announces a +25 bps rate hike next month, we still would not consider it as the beginning of the tightening cycle. It is unwarranted by the macroeconomic developments in the country. A long pause is expected after the first rate hike in over a decade.

UK's services PMI recovered to 53.6 in September, from a 11-month low of 53.2 a month ago. However, new business growth eased to a 13-month low. Construction PMI showed a slump to 48.1 in September. This is the first time for construction activities to fall to contraction since August 2016. Manufacturing PMI slipped -0.8 point to 55.9 last month. According to survey agency IHS Markit, 'the three PMI surveys put the economy on course for another subdued 0.3% expansion in the third quarter, but the fourth quarter could see even slower growth'.