Sample Category Title

In result of a breakout from the rising wedge, which matched with escalation of tensions between Spanish and Catalan governments, the exchange rate surged to the 1,290.50 level. In the process, the pair made multiple attempts to bypass the 100- and 200-hour SMAs but each time failed. As a result, it was forced to retreat back to the weekly S1 at 1,284.92. An aggregate of technical indicators points out on further depreciation of the yellow metal via sending strong sell signals. This assumption is also supported by the fact the pair is fluctuating in a minor ascending channel, which consists of two reaction highs and only one reaction low for now. Hence, bears have an opportunity to push the price back to the 1,279.00 area, which presents location of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

After an active appreciation of buck, bears tried to restore lost positions and return the pair back to the weekly PP at 112.13. However, this attempt did not succeed due to combined support set up by the 100- and 200-hour SMA. In the first hour of this trading session the currency rate jumped by 48 point and began testing resistance between the 113.21 and 113.27 levels. The fact that there is strong confidence that Shinzo Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party will manage to save their seats in the upcoming Japanese general elections suggests that the rate might continue to climb to the top. On the other hand, the fact that on daily chart the pair has reached the upper boundary of a long-term pattern points out on an upcoming rebound.

Due to signs of negative temps of growth of the British retail sales, the Pound continued to depreciate against the Dollar. In result of the downfall, the cable slipped to the 1.3100 zone but then made a rebound, which confirmed existence of a large ascending channel. Such outcome suggests that the pair is likely to climb back to the area near the 1.3160 mark. In larger perspective the further recovery of the Sterling seems complicated, as northern side is reliably protected not only by a combination of moving averages, but also by the upper-trend line of a dominant descending channel, which most probably will prevail over less robust ascending channel. On the other hand, expectations of a possible interest rate hike and uncertainty related to Brexit negotiations do not make this scenario undoubted.

Although Spanish authorities decided to suspend Catalonia’s autonomy, the common European currency did not show negative reaction to this news. In fact, it bounced off from a combination of the 100-, 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP and managed to break through the upper boundary of one of the descending channels. After failing to bypass the 1.1858 level three times in a row it slipped back to the above weekly PP. On the one hand, the 64% average bearish market sentiment and anticipation of Janet Yellen speech later this day play in favour of appreciation of the buck. On the other hand, the southern side remains protected by a bunch of moving averages, which have already stopped the pair from falling below the 1.1800 mark.

The British Pound fell sharply against the Greenback on the report showing stronger-than-expected drop in the country's retail sales. GBP/USD marked a 0.21% decrease to the 1.3151 level to finish the session at the same level. The pair's Friday trading started with sharp decline overshadowed by news supportive for Dollar.

The Office for National Statistics reported that the volume of the UK retail sales dropped unexpectedly 0.8% in September, putting the quarterly growth to the weakest yearly rate since 2013. Consumer demand was uncertain, though pre-Christmas sales are likely to change the situation. Moreover, questions arose about wheteher the Bank of England would hike rates for the first time in a decade.

Cable remains in red on Friday and probed below thin daily cloud after fresh weakness eventually broke below strong supports at 1.3145/43 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.3026/1.3337/55SMA) which limited downside attempts in past two days. Fresh weakness hit new 10-day low at 1.3087, with bearish studies favoring further downside and close below 55SMA needed to confirm. Pound is under pressure from stronger dollar, as well as concerns about Brexit and doubts whether BoE will hike interest rates on Nov 2. Recent comments from BoE officials also weigh on pound as BoE's Deputy Governor Cunliffe in his speech on Thursday, gave no clear signals about rate hike soon, adding to dovish steer seen on the speech of new deputy governor Ramsden earlier this week. Bears may extend towards key supports at 1.3045 (100SMA) and 1.3026 (05 Oct low), as near-term action remains pressured by thick 4-hr cloud (spanned between 1.3182 and 1.3260). Broken 55SMA marks initial resistance at 1.3143.

Res: 1.3143, 1.3161, 1.3182, 1.3204
Sup: 1.3087, 1.3045, 1.3026, 1.3000

GBPJPY has been trading in a range during the past two weeks and is pivoting around the 20 and 50-period moving averages which are converging around the 148.50 level. This also happens to be the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally from 141.34 to 152.85.

Support is expected at the 50% Fibonacci at 147.11. This level has been tested a few weeks ago and was rejected, resulting in the market consolidating just above it. To the upside, the key 150 level and 23.6% Fibonacci will provide resistance, which if broken would see another push higher to re-test the 152.85 peak before the resumption of the August to September uptrend.

A drop below the 50% Fibonacci at 147.11 would turn the focus to the downside to target 145.74. Another leg lower would open the way towards key levels at 144 and 140.

The lack of direction in trend and momentum indicators highlight the neutral feel in the near term. Aside from the horizontal moving averages, the RSI and MACD on the 4-hour chart are flat. Clearer signals are needed to determine where the market will go from here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.69; (P) 133.15; (R1) 133.84; More...

At this point, EUR/JPY is still staying in range of 131.69/134.39. Intraday bias remains neutral first. With 131.69 support intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Decisive break of 134.39 high will indicate up trend resumption. Next target will be 141.04 long term resistance. Nonetheless, firm break of 131.69 will be an early sign of medium term reversal and will target 127.55 key support level.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 127.55 support will argue that the medium term trend has reversal and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8948; (P) 0.8980; (R1) 0.9037; More...

EUR/GBP's rebound from 0.8857 extends higher today but it's still limited below 0.9032 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Break of 0.9032 will resume the rebound from 0.8745 and target 100% projection of 0.8745 to 0.9032 from 0.8857 at 0.9144. On the downside, below 0.8857 will likely resume whole fall from 0.9305 through 0.8745 low.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of another fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4997; (P) 1.5027; (R1) 1.5068; More....

EUR/AUD is staying in range of 1.4945/5101 and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper decline is still mildly in favor. Break of 1.4945 will affirm the case that fall from 1.5241 is the third leg of consolidation pattern from 1.5226. And, Further break of 1.4791 will target 1.4421 support cluster support (50% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5226 at 1.4425). We'd expect strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, though, above 1.5101 will turn focus back to 1.5241 instead.

In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Sustained trading above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 support will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.