Sample Category Title
AUD/USD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis
Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
• Time of formation: 10 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Up
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
• Time of formation: 18 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Up
Aussie only rose to as high as 0.8125 before retreating, a shooting star was formed on the daily chart (followed by a black candlestick), suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback towards support at 0.7867-71 is likely, however, a daily close below there is needed to signal a temporary top has been formed at 0.8125, bring retracement of recent rise to another previous support at 0.7808 which is likely to hold on first testing.
On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 0.8050-60 and said resistance should remain intact, bring another retreat later. Above said resistance at 0.8125 would extend the medium term erratic rise from 0.6827 to 0.8163 resistance, however, loss of near term upward momentum should limit upside to 0.8200 and reckon 0.8260-65 (61.8% projection of 0.7329-0.8066 measuring from 0.7808) would hold, price should falter well below another previous resistance at 0.8295, bring retreat later.
Recommendation: Sell at 0.8060 for 0.7860 with stop above 0.8130
On the weekly chart, although aussie extended recent rise to 0.8125 earlier this month, the subsequent retreat suggests consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 0.7865-70 cannot be ruled out, however, break of support at 0.7808 is needed to signal a temporary top is formed, bring retracement of recent rise to 0.7727 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7329-0.8125 as well as current level of the Kijun-Sen), however, reckon downside would be limited to 0.7675-80 and 0.7630-35 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would hold, bring rebound later.
On the upside, whilst recovery to 0.8050-60 cannot be ruled out, as long as said resistance at 0.8125 holds, prospect of another retreat remains, above said resistance at 0.8125 would extend the erratic rise from 0.6827 low to previous resistance at 0.8163, then 0.8200 but near term overbought condition should limit upside to 0.8260-65 (61.8% projection of 0.7329-0.8066 measuring from 0.7808) and another previous resistance at 0.8295 should hold, price should falter well below 0.8390-00, bring retreat later.
German Investor Confidence Sharply Picked-Up In September
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.32% against the USD and closed at 1.1995, after data showed that German investor morale sharply improved in September.
Data indicated that Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index climbed more-than-anticipated to a level of 17.0 in September, strengthening for the first time in four months, amid increased optimism among investors in the wake of strong economic growth and increased investment in the Euro-zone's largest economy. In the previous month, the index had registered a reading of 10.0, while markets had anticipated for an advance to a level of 12.0. Additionally, the nation's current situation index unexpectedly rose to a six-year high level of 87.9 in September, defying market consensus for a drop to a level of 86.2 and following a reading of 86.7 in the previous month.
Separately, the Euro-zone's ZEW economic sentiment index climbed to a level of 31.7 in September, less than market expectations for a rise to a level of 32.4 and compared to a level of 29.3 recorded in the previous month. Additionally, the region's seasonally adjusted construction output rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in July, after recording a revised similar rise in the prior month. Moreover, the region's seasonally adjusted current account surplus widened to a level of €25.1 billion in July, compared to a revised surplus of €22.8 billion in the prior month.
In the US, data revealed that housing starts surprisingly eased 0.8% on a monthly basis to an annual rate of 1180.0K in August, dropping for the second straight month, amid a notable decrease in multi-family construction. Markets had envisaged housing starts to drop to a level of 1174.0K, compared to a revised level of 1190.0K in the prior month. On the other hand, the nation's building permits unexpectedly advanced 5.7% on a monthly basis to an annual rate of 1300.0K in August, notching its highest level in seven months and confounding market consensus for a fall to a level of 1220.0K. In the previous month, building permits had registered a revised level of 1230.0K.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2009, with the EUR trading 0.12% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.1970, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1930. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2034, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2058.
Going ahead, investors will look forward to Germany's producer price index for August, slated to release in a few hours. Later in the day, market participants will keenly await the outcome of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy meeting. The central bank is widely anticipated to announce plans on paring back its massive balance sheet. Also, the US existing home sales data for August, due to release later in the day, will be on investors' radar.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Pound Trading Higher, Ahead Of Britain’s Retail Sales Data
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP marginally declined against the USD and closed at 1.3513.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3523, with the GBP trading 0.07% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3477, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3432. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3560, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3598.
Looking forward, traders will keep a close watch on UK's retail sales data for August, scheduled to release in a few hours.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.
Japan’s Adjusted Merchandise Trade Surplus Widened In August
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly rose against the JPY and closed at 111.52.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 111.52, with the USD trading flat against the JPY from yesterday's close.
Overnight data indicated that Japan's adjusted merchandise trade surplus expanded less-than-anticipated to ¥367.3 billion in August, following a revised surplus of ¥363.1 billion in the previous month, while markets were anticipating the country's adjusted merchandise trade surplus to rise to ¥404.7 billion.
Further, the nation's exports surged at its fastest pace in nearly four years, after it climbed more-than-anticipated by 18.1% on an annual basis in August, compared to a rise of 13.4% in the prior month. Also, the nation's imports rose more-than-expected by 15.2% YoY in August, after recording a rise of 16.3% in the previous month.
The pair is expected to find support at 111.19, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.85. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.87, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 112.21.
Moving ahead, investors will focus on the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy meeting, scheduled tomorrow.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Swiss Franc Trading On A Stronger Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.06% against the CHF and closed at 0.9622.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9613, with the USD trading 0.09% lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9589, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9565. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9643, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9673.
Amid no macroeconomic releases in Switzerland today, investor sentiment will be governed by global macroeconomic news.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.
Trade Idea : USD/CHF – Hold short entered at 0.9625
USD/CHF - 0.9619
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Near term up
Tenkan-Sen level : 0.9619
Kijun-Sen level : 0.9622
Ichimoku cloud top : 0.9612
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 0.9607
Original strategy :
Sold at 0.9625, Target: 0.9525, Stop: 0.9660
Position : - Short at 0.9625
Target : - 0.9525
Stop : - 0.9660
New strategy :
Hold short entered at 0.9625, Target: 0.9525, Stop: 0.9650
Position : - Short at 0.9625
Target : - 0.9525
Stop : - 0.9650
The greenback has continued meeting resistance at 0.9649 and has remained locked within familiar range, retaining our view that further consolidation would take place and as long as said resistance at 0.9649 holds, mild downside bias remains for another fall towards 0.9563-65 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9421-0.9705 and Friday’s low), break there would add credence to our view that top has been formed at 0.9705, bring further weakness to 0.9525-30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), however, downside should be limited to 0.9500 and 0.9480-85 should hold from here.
In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 0.9625. Above 0.9649 would defer and risk rebound to 0.9675-80, break there would signal the pullback from 0.9705 has ended, bring retest of this level, a breach of this last week’s high would extend recent rise from 0.9421 to 0.9740-50 later.
Loonie Reverses Its Losses In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.1% against the CAD and closed at 1.2291.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2281, with the USD trading 0.08% lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2254, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2228. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2308, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2336.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.
Trade Idea : GBP/USD – Stand aside
GBP/USD - 1.3517
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Up
Tenkan-Sen level : 1.3519
Kijun-Sen level : 1.3511
Ichimoku cloud top : 1.3529
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.3502
Original strategy :
Buy at 1.3400, Target: 1.3560, Stop: 1.3365
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
The British pound has remained confined within near term established range and further consolidation would take place, although risk of another corrective fall towards support at 1.3465 remains, break there is needed to signal a temporary top has been formed at 1.3619, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.3430 and later towards 1.3400 but reckon 1.3375-80 would hold from here.
On the upside, whilst recovery to 1.3550-55 cannot be ruled out, break of 1.3575-80 is needed to signal the pullback from 1.3619 has ended, bring retest of this level first. break there would extend recent upmove towards 1.3650 later. As near term outlook has turned mixed, would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime.
Trade Idea : EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.1970
EUR/USD - 1.2002
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Sideways
Tenkan-Sen level : 1.2004
Kijun-Sen level : 1.1964
Ichimoku cloud top : 1.1947
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.1913
Original strategy :
Bought at 1.1970, Target: 1.2070, Stop: 1.1935
Position : - Long at 1.1970
Target : - 1.2070
Stop : - 1.1935
New strategy :
Hold long entered at 1.1970, Target: 1.2070, Stop: 1.1950
Position : - Long at 1.1970
Target : - 1.2070
Stop : - 1.1950
Yesterday’s breach of indicated resistance at 1.1995-00 (previous resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2093-1.1838) adds credence to our view that the fall from 1.2093 top has ended at 1.1838 last week and consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain to 1.2030-35, then 1.2050-55, however, break of 1.2070 is needed to signal early upmove has resumed for retest of 1.2093 first.
In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 1.1970. Below 1.1950-55 would defer and risk weakness towards support at 1.1915 (Monday’s low) but only break there wold signal the rebound from 1.1838 has ended instead, bring further fall to 1.1880.
Trade Idea : USD/JPY – Buy at 110.70
USD/JPY - 111.41
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Up
Tenkan-Sen level : 111.49
Kijun-Sen level : 111.54
Ichimoku cloud top : 111.47
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 110.88
Original strategy :
Buy at 110.70, Target: 111.70, Stop: 110.35
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
New strategy :
Buy at 110.70, Target: 111.70, Stop: 110.35
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
Dollar’s retreat after rising to 111.88 yesterday has retrained our view that minor consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 111.00 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 110.60-70 would limit downside and bring another rise later, above said resistance would extend recent upmove to 112.00, then 112.20 (previous resistance) but near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 112.40-45.
In view of this, would not chase this move here and would be prudent to buy dollar on subsequent pullback as 110.60-70 should limit downside. Below 110.45-50 would abort and signal a temporary top is formed instead, risk correction to 110.30, then towards 110.00 which is likely to hold from here.
