Sample Category Title

AUD/USD is now consolidating lower after the pair successfully tested the rising trendline support at 0.7881 and has broken the hourly resistance at 0.8066. Hourly support can be found at 0.8029 (intraday high). Key resistance is given at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 high). Expected to further consolidate.

In the long-term, the trend is largely negative since 2011. Key supports stands at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

The US national debt topic is getting "hotter" day after day for a good reason. It's already September, and the US Congress has to consider the increase of the maximum possible amount of the national debt until the end of the month. It will be a difficult task, which may require more time than the politicians really have.

Right after the Labor Day, the US Congress went back to work after legislative recess. Its highest priority is the 2018 budget agreement and acceptance along with the national debt issue. Earlier, Steven Mnuchin, the US Secretary of the Treasury, warned that the national debt "ceiling" should have been considered as early as in spring.

Right now, the US national debt is a bit shy of 20 trillion USD. This number is more than the country's GDP, but it's okay for developed economies. If the debt is serviced in due time, there won't be any problems with it. However, in the USA, there is a legislatively accepted "ceiling" of the national debt. This year, members of the Congress have to revise it until September 29th.

There always is a chance that they won't make it in time. On several occasions in the past, there was a real drama about it and the decision was made just several hours before the "H-hour" while the stock and currency markets were swinging. The major political difference is that the Republicans are always in favor of decreasing the load on budget expenditures while the Democrats are against. Both parties fight for every cent, but eventually come to a consensus.

By the way, the latest news says that the members of the Congress have time: Trump asked the Congress for three more months, so now the deadline is December the 5th.

Discussions about the national debt "ceiling" increase are a very delicate topic for the US Dollar. While they are discussing the topic, the demand for "safe haven" assets may increase and the USD may come under even more pressure than now.

The technical picture of the EUR/USD pair shows a stable uptrend, which indicates that the loser here is the USD. The situation is evolving the favor of the Euro. Still, the situation may change in the short-term if the price doesn't break the high at 1.2070 reached on August 29th. However, if "bulls" succeed, the closest target will be at 1.2250, which is close to the upside border of the ascending channel. But again, if the above-mentioned high provides resistance, it may stop the impulse and start the Flat pattern with the support at the downside border of the current range. After the price finishes this pattern and breaking 1.2070 upwards, the upside target may change to 1.24. Also, one shouldn't ignore another scenario, which implies that the pair may beak the range downwards. In this case, the support level will be at 1.19. If the price breaks this level and fixes below it, investors may close their positions, all or partially. As a result, the instrument may continue falling towards 1.1550.

USD/CAD is moving lower, confirming an underlying declining trend. Hourly support is located at 1.1945 (29/04/2015 low). Resistance is now given at a distance at 1.2778 (15/08/2017 low). Expected to show continued short-term bearish pressures.

In the longer term, the pair has broken longterm support that can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head further lower.

USD/CHF is trying to bounce. Strong resistance is given at 0.9771 (15/06/2017 high). The pair is likely to head further lower below 0.9421 (03/05/2017). Expected to show renewed bearish pressures.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/JPY is consolidating higher but the trend is clearly negative. Strong support is located at 106.95 (08/09/2017 high). Expected to show further downside pressures.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 99.02 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 125.86 (05/06/2015 high) seems unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

GBP/USD has pushed above rising trend-line resistance, confirming an improving short-term technical structure. Strong support is given at 1.3023 (06/09/2017 low). Expected to show continued short-term bullish pressures toward resistance at 1.3267 (03/08/2017 high).

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support can be found at 1.1841 (07/10/2017 low). Long-term resistance is given around 1.35 and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

EURUSD has broken the resistance implied by its horizontal resistance, confirming an improving technical structure. Hourly resistance can be found at 1.2090 (intraday high) while hourly support lies at 1.1993 (intraday low). Stronger support is given at a distance at 1.1662 (17/08/2017 low). Expected to show renewed bullish pressures.

In the longer term, the momentum is now turning largely positive. We favour a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2252 (25/12/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

.

At its monetary policy meeting this Thursday the 14th, we expect the Swiss National Bank to do nothing significant – which will keep the Euro on its upward trend against the Franc. EUR/CHF upside has been tempered by North Korea's nuclear threats, which drive investors into the CHF safe haven, but as the Korean story fades and central banks shift towards normalization, the negative carry of the CHF weighs on its forex value, thus boosting the Euro.

This is welcome news to Switzerland's exporters, who have suffered under an explosion in the Franc's value. It is also a godsend to the country's banking, insurance and pension industries, who have been tormented by the negative interest rates that were introduced to quell the CHF's rise. The SNB is loath to spoil any of that relief, so on Thursday it will sit quietly with its hands folded – absolutely no hawkishness expected.

In the background we see marginal improvement in Switzerland's fundamentals. August CPI inflation rose 0.50 % year on year. Higher import prices (due to a weaker CHF) bumped housing, energy, and transport tabs, while other sectors continue to deflate. The economic outlook is so-so. The July economic forecast of the KoF (Economic Research Institute) was solid, but Q2 GDP growth of 0.3% was under the expected 0.5%.

• Traders welcome no fresh provocation over the weekend;
• Gold safe haven moves see some unwinding;
• Focus on UK this week but US inflation also eyed.

It's been a bright start to trading in Asia and Europe on Monday and the US is currently on course to follow suit, with all three major indices seen opening more than half a percentage point higher.

Investors understandably adopted a far more cautious approach last week, with tension having already been ramped up by North Korea's hydrogen bomb test the weekend before and speculation that another test could follow on Saturday, the anniversary of its founding day. Fortunately, this never materialized, with Kim Jong Un instead using the celebration to recognise the previous weekend's achievements, allowing investors the opportunity to unwind some of the safe haven trades from the days before.

Indices, which have been in consolidation over the last month or so, are now expected to enjoy a mini relief rally although we should get interesting insight into just how much investors perceive the threat of an escalation to have subsided. The S&P 500 is still expected to open around 20 points or so from its highs and should it overcome them in the coming days, it would suggest optimism is returning.

Of course this is aided by other events having either played out better than expected or not deteriorated further. With Hurricane Irma now downgraded to category one, there is hope that the devastation that has already been caused will not end up as bad as feared, potentially bringing down the eventual bill. The debt ceiling can being kicked down the road a few months is also providing temporary relief but as always with this kind of thing, the problem has only been delayed rather than resolved. All these issues have also taken the spotlight off Donald Trump, following what was a rough couple of weeks for the President and a period that was a concern for investors.

All of this has seen safe haven assets come off their highs, with Gold having previously rallied to a level not seen since August last year. While the yellow metal did actually end lower on Friday after having rallied well earlier in the session and has opened lower today, it remains at elevated levels which is perhaps representative of the lingering unease and expectation that confidence could evaporate quite quickly once again.

While Monday is looking quiet as far as scheduled economic events is concerned, there is a scattering of notable economic data throughout the week, with particular focus on the UK as we get inflation and jobs numbers as well as the Bank of England monetary policy decision. We'll also get August inflation data for the US on Thursday, which comes as Federal Reserve policy makers become increasingly concerned about its lack of movement towards target.

The DAX index has posted strong gains in the Monday session. Currently, the DAX is trading at 12,439.50, up 1.09% on the day. There are no German or Eurozone events on the schedule.

Global markets sighed in relief on the weekend, as the Korean peninsula remained quiet. With North Korea celebrating its 69th anniversary of independence, there were concerns that Pyongyang would use the occasion to flex some muscle and test a nuclear bomb or missile. North Korea marked last year’s anniversary by exploding its fifth nuclear test. This occasion passed without incident, although the US, along with its allies Japan and South Korea, remain on alert for further provocations from the north. European stock markets have continued the upward trend seen in Asia, as the DAX is up more than 1 percent. Earlier in the Monday session, the DAX hit its highest level since July 21. Monday’s gains have been felt in most of the DAX’s 30 companies, particularly in banking stocks – Deutsche Bank is up 2.51% and Commerzbank has gained 2.85%.

The ECB policy meeting on Thursday appeared to send mixed signals about the bank’s quantitative easing (QE) program, which ends in December. Currently, the bank is purchasing EUR 60 billion/month and the markets were hoping for some guidance about the ECB’s monetary policy plans. The rate announcement was surprisingly dovish, as policymakers said that QE would not be tapered before December, and left the door open to further stimulus in 2018, if necessary. However, Mario Draghi presented a more hawkish stance in his follow-up press conference, saying that the ECB would make a decision on how to scale back stimulus in October. In his remarks, Draghi made direct reference to the exchange rate, noting that “the recent volatility in the exchange rate represents a source of uncertainty which requires monitoring”. Draghi & Co. are clearly concerned by the euro’s appreciation, as the EUR/USD has soared 14 percent in 2017. The stronger euro has made imports less expensive, thus reducing inflation and hampering the ECB’s efforts to raise inflation levels with zero interest rates and the ultra-accommodative QE scheme. Despite an improved eurozone economy, the ECB has now cut its inflation forecast to 1.2 percent in 2018 and 1.5 percent in 2019, well short of its target of just below 2 percent. It is unclear what the ECB has planned when QE runs out, and the markets will be listening closely for any hints from policymakers.