Sample Category Title

EUR/USD - 1.1827

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.1822

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.1798

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.1758

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.1737

Original strategy  :

Bought at 1.1790, Target: 1.1890, Stop: 1.1755

Position : - Long at 1.1790

Target :  - 1.1890

Stop : - 1.1755

New strategy  :

Hold long entered at 1.1790, Target: 1.1890, Stop: 1.1770

Position : - Long at 1.1790

Target :  - 1.1890

Stop : - 1.1770

As the single currency found renewed buying interest at 1.1748 on Friday and rallied, adding credence to our view that low has been formed at 1.1689 last week and mild upside bias remains for further gain to 1.1850, then 1.1880, however, a firm break above latter level is needed to confirm correction from 1.1910 top has ended, bring retest of this level, break there would signal early upmove has resumed and extend headway towards 1.1940-50 first.

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 1.1790. Only below support at 1.1748 would defer and risk weakness to 1.1720, however, downside should be limited to 1.1700 and support at 1.1689 should remain intact, bring another rally later.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.29% against the USD and closed at 1.3014 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3016, with the GBP trading marginally higher against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2960, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2905. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3051, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3087.

With no macroeconomic releases in the UK today, investor sentiment will be determined by global macroeconomic factors.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.06% against the JPY and closed at 109.09 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 109.37, with the USD trading 0.26% higher against the JPY from Friday’s close.

Overnight data indicated that Japan’s preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) advanced 1.0% on a quarterly basis in second quarter of 2017, beating market expectations for a rise of 0.6%, amid robust consumer spending and capital expenditure. In the prior quarter, GDP had climbed 0.3%.

The pair is expected to find support at 108.92, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.48. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.63, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.90.

Going ahead, market participants will focus on Japan’s final industrial production data for June, slated to release tomorrow.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.08% against the CHF and closed at 0.9614 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9636, with the USD trading 0.23% higher against the CHF from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.96, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9565. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9655, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9675.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.46% against the CAD and closed at 1.2684 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2677, with the USD trading 0.06% lower against the CAD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2636, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2594. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2736, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2794.

Ahead in the day, investors will look forward to Canada’s Teranet/National Bank house price index for July.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2636; (P) 1.2694; (R1) 1.2737; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. The corrective rise from 1.2412 might still extend higher. But based on current momentum, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.2552 minor support will argue that the recovery is completed and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.2412.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. Such corrective fall is still expected to extend to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we'd look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Nonetheless, on the upside, sustained break of 1.2968, 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 will be the first sign of completion of the correction and will turn focus back to 1.3793 key resistance.

USD/JPY - 109.58

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 109.37

Kijun-Sen level                  : 109.19

Ichimoku cloud top             : 109.55

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 109.28

Original strategy  :

Sell at 109.70, Target: 108.70, Stop: 110.05

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 110.10, Target: 109.10, Stop: 110.45

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback has staged a strong rebound after Friday’s brief fall to 108.73, suggesting a temporary low has been formed there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement of recent decline to 109.80, however, reckon upside would be limited to resistance at 110.18 and bring retreat later, below 109.00 would signal the rebound from 108.73 has ended, bring retest of this level, break there would extend recent decline to 108.50 but previous chart support at 108.13 should remain intact. 

In view of this, we are inclined to sell dollar on further subsequent rebound as resistance at 110.18 should cap upside. Above previous support at 110.25 would risk a stronger corrective rise to 110.50 but still reckon upside would be limited and resistance at 110.83 should remain intact, bring another selloff.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7850; (P) 0.7879; (R1) 0.7920; More...

With 0.7948 minor resistance intact, deeper decline could still be seen in AUD/USD. But we'd expect strong support from 0.7785 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.7328 to 0.8065 at 0.7783) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7948 will argue that the pull back is completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 0.8065.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8100) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now expected.

The FOMC may be this week's data highlight, but it is the Kim and Trump show that will keep energy and precious metals on edge.

Crude Oil

Both Brent and WTI survived further selling pressure on Friday to make back all their losses and close near the highs of the day and ekk out higher finishes, up 20 cents and 40 cents respectively. The Baker Hughes Rig Count, released late Friday, showed a small drop surprisingly and this seems to have given both contracts a bid tone as they start the day at 51.95 and 48.80.

Data wise the highlights will be the usual crude inventories with traders closely watching the shapes of the oil futures curves as both race towards backwardation from years of contango, implying that finally, the market is seeing the light at the end of the oil supply tunnel.

The FOMC minutes may play its part, but oil moves will more likely be vulnerable to sabre-rattling headlines between the U.S. and North Korea. Given the positive start to the week an escalation in tensions should see oil prices firm as opposed to the counterintuitive moves lower of last week which we believe was caused by extended short term long positions.

Brent spot tested its 200-day moving average on Friday at 51.55 but closed above, and this forms intra-day support. This is followed by 51.00 and then the critical 50.55 regions. Home to the 100-day average and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at Friday's high of 52.10 followed by the much more significant 52.70 level.

WTI spot bounced from its 100-day moving average at 47.85 on Friday to settle just below its 200-day average at 49.15. These two levels will set the range in initial trading in Asia today.

GOLD

Gold has traded down to 1286.00 this morning from its positive 1290.00 close as traders take of weekend risk hedges in early Asia. Geopolitical risk will continue to be the dominant theme this week with gold sensitive to any escalation in tensions vis-a-vis the Korean peninsula. It remains our base case that the United States options are very limited militarily regarding North Korea and the likelihood of them firing the first shot very unlikely. The same cannot be said of the other side although again we regard the chances as very low.

That said, there is no reason why the respective chest thumping cannot get louder, and this should ensure that gold is bid on any significant dips this week. Wednesday's FOMC minutes may also continue to boost gold if it appears that the Federal Reserve is continuing to blink on potential further U.S. rate hikes.

Gold has support at 1282.00 initially followed by 1274.20. All eyes, however, will be on the 1295.00/1296.00 region which has capped gold this year. From a technical perspective, a daily close and consolidation above this region would be a very bullish development and imply that a 1300 handle on gold prices may not be far away. It may, however, require some more action from the Korean peninsula to get us there this week

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1763; (P) 1.1805 (R1) 1.1862; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. With 1.1908 resistance intact, more consolidation could be seen first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1119 to 1.1908 at 1.1606 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.1908 will extend recent up trend to 1.2042 long term support turned resistance next.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.1768) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it's developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we'll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.