Sample Category Title
Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9555
USD/CHF - 0.9500
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Near term down
Tenkan-Sen level : 0.9558
Kijun-Sen level : 0.9558
Ichimoku cloud top : 0.9579
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 0.9544
New strategy :
Sell at 0.9555, target: 0.9455, Stop: 0.9590
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
Although the greenback staged a strong rebound to 0.9622, renewed selling interest emerged there and dollar has dropped again from there, confirming recent decline has resumed and bearishness remains for further weakness to 0.9490, then towards 0.9460, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below previous support at 0.9440-44, risk from there is seen for a rebound later.
In view of this, we are looking to sell dollar on recovery as the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9558) should limit upside and bring another decline. Above the upper Kumo (now at 0.9579) would suggest an intra-day low is formed, bring a stronger rebound towards resistance at 0.9622 which is likely to hold from here.
Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.3030
GBP/USD - 1.2979
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Near term up
Tenkan-Sen level : 1.2982
Kijun-Sen level : 1.2992
Ichimoku cloud top : 1.3066
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.3033
Original strategy :
Sell at 1.3010, Target: 1.2915, Stop: 1.3045
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
New strategy :
Sell at 1.3030, Target: 1.2930, Stop: 1.3065
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
Cable has dropped after breaking support at 1.3005, suggesting top has been formed at 1.3126, hence consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for weakness to 1.3930-32 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2812-1.3126), then test of previous support at 1.2912, however, break of latter level is needed to retain bearishness and extend the fall from 1.3126 top to 1.2880-85 first.
In view of this, we are looking to sell cable on recovery as the lower Kumo (now at 1.3033) should limit upside. Only break of resistance at 1.3062 would abort and signal an intra-day low is formed instead, bring a stronger rebound towards 1.3090-00 but resistance at 1.3126 should remain intact.
Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.1580
EUR/USD - 1.1641
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Near term up
Tenkan-Sen level : 1.1569
Kijun-Sen level : 1.1569
Ichimoku cloud top : 1.1540
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.1514
Original strategy :
Buy at 1.1540, Target: 1.1640, Stop: 1.1505
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
New strategy :
Buy at 1.1580, Target: 1.1680, Stop: 1.1545
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
The single currency only slipped to 1.1479 (just missed our long entry at 1.1475) before finding renewed buying interest and current rally above said resistance at 1.1583 confirms recent upmove has resumed and bullishness remains for further gain to 1.1680, then towards previous chart resistance at 1.1714, however, break there is needed to retain bullishness for the rise from 1.0340 low to extend further headway towards 1.1750.
In view of this, we are looking to buy euro on dips but at a higher level as previous resistance at 1.1583 should limit downside. Below the upper Kumo (now at 1.1540) would abort and suggest an intra-day top is formed, bring correction to 1.1510-15 but said support at 1.1479 should remain intact.
Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY – Exit long entered at 111.80
USD/JPY - 111.80
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Near term down
Tenkan-Sen level : 112.07
Kijun-Sen level : 111.99
Ichimoku cloud top : 112.23
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 111.91
Original strategy :
Bought at 111.80, Target: 112.80, Stop: 111.45
Position : - Long at 111.80
Target : - 112.80
Stop : - 111.45
New strategy :
Exit long entered at 111.80,
Position : - Long at 111.80
Target : -
Stop : -
Current sharp retreat on dollar’s broad-based weakness signals an intra-day top has been formed at 112.42 and downside risk remains for retest of yesterday’s low at 111.55, break there would confirm recent decline from 114.50 top has resumed and extend further weakness to 111.20-25, however, reckon 111.00 would hold from here due to near term oversold condition, bring rebound later.
In view of this, would be prudent to exit long entered at 111.80 and stand aside for now. Above 112.20-25 would prolong consolidation and bring another bounce to 112.42, break there would signal a temporary low is formed, bring a stronger rebound to resistance at 112.87.
Elliott Wave Analysis: GBPUSD Looking Lower
GBPUSD is making a sharp three wave move to the downside, which can be an indication that wave C) found a top at the 1.3126 level. If that is the case, then we will ideally see a five wave move develop to the downside and a breach below the bearish 1.28.11 level.
GBPUSD, 1H
Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Stand aside
EUR/GBP - 0.8918
Recent wave: Major double three (A)-(B)-(C)-(X)-(A)-(B)-(C) is unfolding and 2nd (A) has possibly ended at 0.6936.
Trend: Near term up
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
As the single currency has risen again after finding support at 0.8829, suggesting near term upside risk remains and gain to resistance at 0.8950 cannot be ruled out, however, beak there is needed to retain bullishness and confirm recent upmove has resumed for headway to 0.8975-80, then towards psychological resistance at 0.9000 which is likely to hold from here due to near term overbought condition.
In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Below 0.8865-70 would bring test of said support at 0.8829 but break there is needed to prolong consolidation below said resistance at 0.8950 and bring another corrective fall to 0.8780-85, then towards previous support at 0.8743 which is likely to hold from here.
Our preferred count is that, after forming a major top at 0.9805 (wave V), (A)-(B)-(C) correction is unfolding with (A) leg ended at 0.8400 (A: 0.8637, B: 0.9491 and 5-waver C ended at 0.8400. Wave (B) has ended at 0.9413 and impulsive wave (C) has either ended at 0.8067 or may extend one more fall to 0.8000 before prospect of another rally. Current breach of indicated resistance at 0.9043 confirms our view that the (C) leg has ended and bring stronger rebound towards 0.9150/54, then towards 0.9240/50.
Markets Not Buying What Draghi Has to Sell
There may have been no hints at tapering in September in today's ECB statement or in Mario Draghi's press conference but traders certainly found reason to drive the euro higher, something the ECB President was clearly trying to avoid.
I don't think Draghi could have possibly adopted a more dovish stance at the press conference without suggesting that tapering will not happen later this year. Rather than discuss the possibility of tapering, Draghi was determined to avoid laying the foundations for such a move and instead insist that asset purchases could rise or be extended, a clear attempt to avoid the taper tantrum that the Federal Reserve was forced to contend with four years ago.
What we learned from today's meeting though was that the ECB probably doesn't have anything to worry about. The market is already working off the assumption that the ECB will gradually phase out bond buying, with the program likely ending by the end of next year, possibly even the third quarter. This was made clear when the euro rallied despite the repeated insistence from Draghi that tapering wasn't discussed and further analysis will be done in the Autumn, in other words when the ECB next meets in September and has access to the latest macro-economic projections.
Perhaps it's time for the ECB to focus less on the intraday movements in the single currency and more on being transparent on its intentions because as it is, they're fooling nobody and the market reaction today suggests they're suffering credibility damage along the way.
None of this is to say that traders believe the ECB is on a pre-set course. The Fed wasn't either despite it's clear intentions to phase out its QE program and other central banks won't be when they begin normalising monetary policy. Changes in the data could force the ECB to change course but it seems that the central bank is more concerned with managing the currency than guiding traders.
Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Sell at 1.2765
USD/CAD - 1.2600
Recent wave: Only wave v of c has ended at 0.9407 and wave C of major A-B-C correction is underway with wave iii ended at 1.4690, wave v of C may bring one more marginal rise probably in 2018
Trend: Near term down
Original strategy :
Sell at 1.2765, Target: 1.2565, Stop: 1.2825
Position: -
Target: -
Stop: -
New strategy :
Sell at 1.2765, Target: 1.2565, Stop: 1.2825
Position: -
Target: -
Stop:-
The greenback has remained under pressure, suggesting recent downtrend is still in progress, adding credence to our bearish view and we took the count that wave v as well as wave (C) ended at 1.3794 and impulsive wave (i ii, i ii) is now unfolding with minor wave iii still in progress, hence bearishness remains for this fall to extend weakness to 1.2550-60, then towards 1.2500-10, however, oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.2440-50, risk from there is seen for a rebound later.
In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell the pair again on recovery as 1.2760-70 should limit upside. Above 1.2800-10 would defer and risk a stronger rebound to 1.2850-60 but only break of latter level would signal a temporary low is formed instead, bring retracement of recent decline to 1.2900-10, then 1.2940-50, however, price should falter below 1.3000 and the greenback shall head south again from there.
To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.58; (P) 111.90; (R1) 112.26; More...
A temporary low is in place at 111.54 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidation could be seen but another fall is expected as long as 112.85 resistance holds. Below 111.54 will target 108.81 low. Break there will extend the whole correction from 118.65 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 112.85 will turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it's uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it's a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we'll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9535; (P) 0.9548; (R1) 0.9567; More...
Some volatility is seen in USD/CHF today but it's, after all, staying in range of 0.9523/9699. Intraday bias remains neutral for consolidative trading. Upside of recovery should be limited well below 0.9699 resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 0.9523 will extend the decline from 1.0342 and target 0.9443 key support level next. At this point, we'd expect strong support from there to bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is still bounded in medium term range of 0.9443/1.0342 for the moment. Consolidative trading would likely continue and medium term outlook remains neutral. Break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the pair. Meanwhile, downside attempts should be contained by 0.9443 key support level. However, sustained break of 0.9443 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.9 handle.
