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GOLD Short-term bullish momentum arises.

Gold's is trading mixed after the precious metal reached the $1200 level. Hourly support is now given at $1204 (10/07/2017 high). Hourly resistance at 1229 (06/07/2017 high) has been broken. Expected to show further strengthening.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low)

SILVER Back within former downtrend channel.

Silver is still bouncing from hourly support given at 15.18 (10/07/2017 low). Key resistance is given at a distance at 17.75 (06/06/2017 high). The road seems wide open for renewed weakness.

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

CRUDE OIL Pushing higher.

Crude oil is trading higher. Hourly support is given at 43.65 (10/07/2017 low). Expected to monitor resistance given at 47.32 (04/07/2017).

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 35.24 (05/04/2016) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

EUR/GBP Weakening.

EUR/GBP has broken uptrend channel. Hourly support is given at 0.8719 (16/06/2017 low). Expected to show further monitoring of support given at 0.8719.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

EUR/CHF Buying pressures continues.

EUR/CHF is still trading above psychological level at 1.1000. Selling pressures are very weak at the moment. Hourly support is located at a distance at 1.0922 (30/06/2017 low). Expected to inch higher.

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

BITCOIN Ready for a short-term bullish consolidation.

Bitcoin has strongly declined over the weekend. Strong hourly resistance can be found at 2417 (13/07/2017 high) and hourly support is now given at 1852 (14/07/2017 low). Expected to show some sustained short-term bullish momentum.

In the long-term, the digital currency has had an exponential growth. There are decent likelihood that the asset will consolidate above $1500. Long-term support is given at $1464 (04/05/2017 low).

USD/CHF Short-term bullish.

USD/CHF is trading higher within a slight short-term bullish trend. Hourly resistance can be found at 0.9696 (09/06/2017 high). Strong resistance is given at 1.0107 (10/04/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 0.9553 (30/06/2017 low). Expected to inch higher.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD Important selling pressures.

USD/CAD is going lower but the pair remains in a strong bearish momentum. Hourly support is given at 1.2681 (12/07/2017 low). Resistance is located at 1.3014 (02/15/2017). Expected to show continued bearish pressures.

In the longer term, the pair lies in a bullish channel since a year. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).

AUD/USD Buying pressures increase again.

AUD/USD's technical structure is bullish since early May despite some consolidation move. An unlikely break of support at 0.7520 (09/06/2017 low) would nonetheless indicate a renewed bearish trend.

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

China's stock markets slid despite solid GDP read

Chinese equities tumbled on Monday with the tech focussed Shenzhen index falling 4.28% to 1,800.54, while the Shanghai Composite was off 1.43% to 3,176.46 points. Data showed the world's second largest economy grew 6.9%y/y in the second quarter, matching the previous quarter's performance but beating median forecast of 6.8%. June retail sales also came in higher than expected, printing at 11%y/y versus 10.6% expected. Finally, industrial production expanded 7.6%y/y, beating forecast of 6.5%.

This morning's sell-off in came on the back of rising concerns about the excess of leverage in the economy and questions regarding potential domino effects once deleveraging actually kicks in. In the FX market the yuan, both onshore and offshore, was trading flat lined despite a broad based strength of the greenback.

The dollar index extended gains against most of its peer, rising 0.35% against the Swedish krona and the New Zealand dollar and 0.25% against the single currency, recovering somewhat after Friday's sell-off. Indeed, the last batch of US data left little for excess optimism. Retail sales printed in negative territory for the second month in a row, contracting 0.2%m/m (versus +0.1% expected). Excluding auto and gas, the measure shrunk 0.1%m/m versus +0.4% median forecast. The persistent weakness in US data suggests that what the Fed sees as “transitory” may have deeper roots, which would for sure dampened its rate pace outlook.

US dollar to weaken, as Fed aims to let inflation run and keep interest rates low

The US Federal Reserve wants to let inflation run and keep interest rates low. This, we believe, is for two reasons. First, letting inflation rise will allow erode the US Central Bank's bond-bloated balance sheet in real terms. Second, hiking interest rates above 2% would trigger a major recession and push debt-service payments to an unsustainable level. (The current Federal Funds rate is 1.16%.)

So at the next meeting of the Fed's Open Market Committee, on 25-26 July, we believe interest rates will not be increased. This will weaken the USD against the EUR, hiking it to $1.15 for 1 Euro in the short term.

Last week, in testimony to the US Congress, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen admitted that stocks markets are overheated, and that strong “valuation pressures” prevail across a range of assets. Nonetheless, Yellen was unclear whether interest rates will rise before year-end. Her stance is a marked departure from policy of the preceding eight years, when the Fed repeatedly boosted stocks through liquidity and verbal interventions.

EUR/USD Stalling below 1.1500.

EUR/USD bearish pressures are weak and the pair is way into a consolidation phase. Hourly resistance is given at 1.1489 (12/07/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 1.1313 (05/07/2017 high). Stronger support lies at 1.1076 (18/05/2017 low). Expected to show sideways price action.

In the longer term, the momentum is clearly negative. We favour a continued bearish bias towards parity. Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high) while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

GBP/USD Consolidating after strong increase.

GBP/USD has broken the 1.3000 mark. Strong resistance at 1.3048 (18/05/2017 high) has been broken. Expected to show continued bullish pressures.

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY Weakening.

USD/JPY is going lower. Hourly support given at 112.83 (13/07/2017 low) has been broken. Stronger support is located at a distance at 108.13 (17/04/2017 low). Expected to show continued bearish pressures.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

The pair is consolidating above pivotal support at 112.32 (Fibo 38.2% of 108.80/114.49 upleg) which was cracked on Friday's strong fall.

Repeated close (Thu/Fri) below daily Tenkan-sen confirms negative near-term stance.

Upside attempts were so far capped by initial barrier at 112.78 (Fibo 23.6% of 114.49/112.25 pullback) with thick 4-hr cloud weighing on near-term action (cloud base lies at 113.11, also Fibo 38.2%).

Close below 112.32 to signal fresh downside and expose a cluster of daily MA supports between 111.94 and 111.80, followed by daily Kijun-sen at 111.64 and thickening daily cloud (spanned between 111.23 and 111.07.

Alternative scenario requires sustained break above daily Tenkan-sen (113.37) to sideline immediate downside threats.

Res: 112.78, 113.15, 113.37, 113.57
Sup: 112.32, 111.94, 111.80, 111.64

The euro has posted slight losses in the Monday session. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1450. On the release front, it's a very quiet start to the week. Eurozone Final CPI edged down to 1.3%, matching the forecast. In the US, today's sole event is the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which is expected to dip to 15.8 points.

Inflation levels in the US remain stubbornly low, but the Federal Reserve remains convinced that it's only a matter of time before inflation levels move higher. This stance was reiterated by Fed Chair Janet Yellen last week, as she testified before congressional and senate committees. With the labor market close to capacity and the unemployment rate at just 4.4%, economists are puzzled why this hasn't pushed inflation to higher levels. In her testimony, Yellen admitted that the Fed was at a loss to explain the lack of inflation, but insisted that it was “premature to conclude that the underlying inflation trend is falling well short of 2 percent”, and that with a strong labor market “the conditions are in place for inflation to move up”. Is Yellen's argument just wishful thinking? The markets aren't buying in, with the odds of a December hike at just 43%, according to the CME Group.

Fed policymakers surely weren't smiling after Friday's consumer inflation and spending numbers. CPI edged up to 0.0%, short of the forecast of 0.1%. There was no relief from Retail Sales, which declined 0.2%, missing the estimate of 0.1%. This marked the third decline in the past four months. Consumer spending accounts for 2/3 of US economic activity, so it's no surprise that weak spending has also meant weak inflation, despite Yellen's claim that low inflation is a temporary phenomenon. The economy had a weak first quarter, with growth of just 1.4%. If the second quarter follows suit, investors could sour on the US dollar in favor of other assets, and the euro could take advantage.

Eurozone inflation levels continue to soften. Eurozone Final CPI edged down from 1.4% to 1.3% in June, marking its weakest gain in 2017. Germany may be the catalyst of the eurozone's economic recovery, but the bloc's largest economy has not been immune to low inflation. Final CPI improved to 0.2% in June, compared to -0.2% in May. CPI has managed just one reading above 0.2% in 2017, and earlier in the week, WPI came in at 0.0%. German and eurozone inflation levels remain well below the ECB's target of 2%, and with no indication that inflation levels will move higher anytime soon, the cautious ECB is unlikely to taper its aggressive stimulus package.

EURUSD reached a fourteen-and-a-half-month high of 1.1489 during Wednesday of last week. The price is down in today's trading so far after advancing by 0.6% during Friday's trading.

Looking at the Ichimoku analysis, the positive alignment when the Tenkan-sen line (red) crossed above the Kijun-sen (blue) in late June is still in place – this hints to a bullish market bias. Despite this, momentum in the very short-term seems to be on the downside as indicated by the downward trending RSI.

The area around last Wednesday's high of 1.1489 could prove to be a major barrier to the upside. Should the price climb above, resistance is likely to be met around the 1.15 handle as well.

On the downside, support might be formed around the current level of the Tenkan-sen at 1.14. If this is violated, additional support could come around last Thursday's eleven-day low of 1.1370.

Concerning the medium-term outlook, a bullish cross was formed in mid-May when the 50-day moving average (MA) crossed above the 200-day MA. This points to a positive medium-term picture and price action taking place above the cloud, 50- and 200-day MAs since late April is supporting the strength of this signal.

As a result of a holiday in Japan the first trading session of the day was more quiet than usual. A set of economic data releases out of China dominated the news flow so far. Pressure on the dollar against major currencies stalled during the Asian session, following the greenback's plunge on Friday amid disappointing inflation and retail sales data.

China's upbeat economic data releases took markets by surprise today. The second quarter GDP rose 6.9% year-on-year, faster than expected (6.8%) as industrial output and consumption picked up and investment remained strong. This gave a boost to China dependent currencies such as the aussie that rose against the dollar following the release, but later gave up on the gains.

The greenback firmed slightly against the yen, up one-tenth of a percent, with dollar/yen last trading at 112.69 ahead of the European session. The dollar index was broadly flat today. This comes after the dollar tumbled on Friday amid the release of disappointing inflation and retail sales figures. The dollar index fell to a fresh 10-month low of 95.25 immediately following the release. Market participants are now especially skeptical about the prospects of future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

The euro gave up on some of the gains from Friday against the dollar, but remained close to its highest level in a year. Euro/dollar was last trading at 1.1456 ahead of the European session. Looking ahead, June final inflation for the eurozone will be released later today. Economists are expecting an upward revision to the monthly figure. The main event of the week will be the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday.

Sterling also gave up on some of the gains from Friday against the greenback. Pound/dollar was last trading at 1.3090. Traders will likely monitor the second part of the Brexit negotiations that start today in Brussels.

Oil prices continued gaining during the Asian session, amid a slowdown in the US rigs expansion and due to a strong refinery demand from China. WTI was last trading at $46.75 a barrel and Brent at $49.17.

Gold continued building on Friday's strong gain when the precious metal rose amid dollar weakness. Gold was last trading at $1,230.7 an ounce ahead of the European session.

Cable is pressuring initial support at 1.3047 (18 May former high) in early Monday's trading, following repeated failure at 1.3113 (Friday's high / near Fibo 38.2% retracement of 1.5016/1.1930 descend) which so far capped the rally.

Further easing on profit-taking after strong rally last week and overbought conditions on daily chart could be anticipated.

Extension below former highs at 1.3047/30 should ideally find support at psychological 1.3000 support (also Fibo 38.2% of 1.2811/1.3113) and 1.2962 (daily Tenkan-sen), before bulls resume.

Bullish technical studies and sentiment on overall weak US dollar keep the pair supported, with clear break above 1.3113 needed to confirm bullish continuation towards 1.3445 (Sep 2016 high).

UK inflation (due on Tuesday) and Retail Sales (due on Thursday) will be closely watched for fresh signals.

Stronger bearish signals could be expected on extension below 1.2930 (Friday's low / Fibo 61.8% of last week's 1.2811/1.3113 rally).

Res: 1.3113; 1.3164; 1.3200; 1.3248
Sup: 1.3047; 1.3030; 1.3000; 1.2962