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GOLD Ready to bounce back above 1214.

Gold's is trading sideways. The commodity has broken hourly support located at 1236 (26/06/2017 low). Stronger support is given at 1214 (09/05/2017 low). Hourly resistance can be found at 1258 (23/06/2017 high). Expected to show further monitoring of support at 1214.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

SILVER Continued decline.

Silver's short-term decline should continue until support at 15.63 (27/12/2016 low). Key resistance is given at a distance at 17.75 (06/06/2017 high). The road seems wide open for further decline.

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

CRUDE OIL Profit-taking after the strong increase.

Crude oil is back to bearish again. Support is given at 42.05 (21/06/2017 low). Expected to show renewed weakness.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 35.24 (05/04/2016) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

EUR/JPY Stalling below 129.00.

EUR/JPY is trading below 129. Yet, the pair is testing this resistance area. Hourly support can be found at 127.10 (30/06/2017). Next support is given at 122.56 (18/05/2017 low). Further upside is favored.

In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support at 94.12 (24/07/2012 low) looks nonetheless far away.

EUR/GBP Low volatility and sideways price action.

EUR/GBP has broken downtrend resistance triggering a move lower. Hourly support is given at 0.8719 (16/06/2017 low). Expected to show continued weakness.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

EUR/CHF Important selling pressures around at 1.0960.

EUR/CHF's short-term bullish pressures are now fading on after clear break of downtrend channel. Hourly support is located at a distance at 1.0792 (03/05/2017 low). Hourly resistance is given at 1.0987 (12/05/2017 high). Expected to inch higher.

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

USD/CHF Ready for another leg lower.

USD/CHF is pushing lower. Hourly resistance can be found at 0.9771 (09/06/2017 high). Strong resistance is given at 1.0107 (10/04/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 0.9553 (30/06/2017 low). Expected to show bearish pressures.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD Starting a short-term consolidation.

USD/CAD is way into bearish mode. Support given at 1.2913 (04/07/2017 low). Resistance is located at 1.3014 (02/15/2017). Expected to show continued downside pressures.

In the longer term, the pair lies in a bullish channel since a year. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).

AUD/USD Ready for another leg higher.

AUD/USD's technical structure is bullish since early May. The pair should further head towards resistance at 0.7712 (30/06/2017 high). However, a break of support at 0.7520 (09/06/2017 low) would nonetheless indicate a trend reversal.

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

EUR/USD Continued bearish consolidation.

EUR/USD is still in a consolidation phase after its recent rally above 1.1400. Hourly support can be found at 1.1292 (28/06/2017 low). Stronger support lies at 1.1076 (18/05/2017 low).

In the longer term, the momentum is clearly negative. We favour a continued bearish bias towards parity. Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high) while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

GBP/USD Short-term selling pressures fade.

GBP/USD is still consolidating. The pair failed to monitor resistance given at 1.3046 (18/05/2017 high). The road is wide-open for further weakness.

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY Riding within symmetrical triangle.

USD/JPY is riding within symmetrical triangle. Hourly resistance can be found at 113.47 (03/07/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 111.73 (30/06/2017 low). Strong support is located at 108.13 (17/04/2017 low). Expected to show continued bullish pressures within symmetrical pressures.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

The Aussie is probing back above 0.7600 handle on Friday after dipping to 0.7585, supported by upbeat Australian trade data.

The pair is attempting to stabilize after steep pullback in past three days bottomed at 0.7577 and Thursday's trading was shaped in long-legged Doji candle, signaling strong indecision.

Despite dips below strong 0.7600 support, the pair did not close below it in past two sessions, keeping in play hopes of ending corrective action from 0.7712 peak and reversal.

Scenario sees close above 0.7624 (Fibo 38.2% of 0.7712/0.7571 pullback / 10 SMA) as minimum requirement for reversal signal.

Bullish extension above 0.7658 (Fibo 61.8%) is needed to confirm.

Otherwise, downside is expected to remain at risk while the price continues to hover around 0.7600 pivot, with sustained break lower to signal fresh extension of bear-leg from 0.7712 and open a cluster of MA supports between 0.7551 and 0.7505 (100SMA / 200SMA / 55SMA, including 0.7535 higher base) with daily cloud top reinforcing support at 0.7505.

Res: 0.7624, 0.7641, 0.7658, 0.7682
Sup: 0.7585, 0.7571, 0.7551, 0.7535

EUR/GBP         –  0.8779

EUR/GBP – The major (A)(B)(C)-(X)-(A)(B)(C) correction from 0.9805 is unfolding and 2nd (A) has possibly ended at 0.6936.

As the single currency retreated after rising marginally to 0.8882 last week, retaining our view that consolidation below this level would be seen and initial downside risk is for pullback to support at 0.8719, however, still reckon downside would be limited and support at 0.8652 should hold, bring another rise later. Above said resistance at 0.8882 would signal the erratic rise from 0.8304 low is still in progress and may extend gain to 0.8940-50 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9576-0.8304) but loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 0.9000 psychological level and price should falter below 0.9090-00 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and bring retreat later.

Our latest preferred count is that the wave V of a 5-wave series from 0.5682 ended at 0.9805 earlier and major from there has possibly ended at 0.8067 as A-B-C-X-A-B-C. We are keeping our view that the entire correction from 0.9805 has possibly ended at 0.7756 and as labeled as the attached daily chart and impulsive move from 0.9084 has ended at 0.7756 as a 5-waver which marked either the (C) wave or the A leg of (C), a daily close above resistance at 0.8831 would suggest (C) leg has ended and headway towards 0.9084.

On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 0.8735-40 cannot be rule out, reckon 0.8680-90 would limit downside and bring another rise later. A daily close below support at 0.8652 would suggest top is possibly formed and risk weakness towards 0.8600-05 but reckon downside would be limited to 0.8550 and previous support at 0.8524 should hold from here, bring rebound later. 
 
Recommendation: Buy at 0.8680 for 0.8880 with stop below 0.8580

Euro's long term uptrend started in Feb 1981 at 0.5039 and is unfolding as a (A)-(B)-(C) move with (A): 0.8433 (Feb 1993), (B): 0.5682 (May 2000) and impulsive wave (C) should have ended at 0.9805 with wave III ended at 0.7254 (May 2003), triangle wave IV at 0.6536 (23 Jan 2007) and wave V as well as wave (C) has ended at 0.9805.

We are keeping an alternate count that only wave III ended at 0.9805 and the correction from there is the wave IV and may extend weakness to 0.7700, however, it is necessary to see a daily close above resistance at 0.9143 would change this to be the preferred count.

USD/CAD – 1.2943

USD/CAD – Wave v ended at 0.9407 and only wave (3) of c ended at 1.4690 and one more rise cannot be ruled out.

The greenback has remained under pressure after recent anticipated selloff, adding credence to our bearish view that the decline from 1.3794 top is still in progress and bearishness remains for weakness to 1.2900, break there would suggest the rebound from 1.2461 has ended at 1.3794 (tentatively wave b top), hence further weakness to 1.2850-55 would be seen but near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below previous support at 1.2763, risk from there has increased for a rebound later.

We are keeping our view that the wave b from 1.0657 (a leg top) has possibly ended at 0.9633 with (a): 0.9800, wave (b): 1.0447 and wave c at 0.9633, the subsequent rise from there is now treated as wave c exceeded indicated upside target at 1.3770-80 and 1.4000 and wave (3) has possibly ended at 1.4690 and wave (4) correction has commenced for retracement back to 1.2832 support, then 1.2410-20.

On the daily chart, our latest preferred count remains that the A of (B) rally from 0.9059 low (7 Nov 2007) unfolded into an impulsive wave with i: 0.9059-1.0380, ii ended at 0.9819, iii at 1.3019 followed by triangle wave iv at 1.2026 , then wave v formed a top at 1.3066 and also ended the wave A. The wave B is unfolding as an double three a-b-c-x-a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c at 1.0784, followed by wave x at 1.1725, another set of a-b-c unfolded with 2nd a at 0.9931, 2nd b at 1.0674. the 2nd c has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3900 had been met and gain to 1.4700 would follow.

On the upside, whilst initial recovery to 1.3040-45 cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to previous support at 1.3165 (now resistance) and bring another decline later. Above 1.3260-65 would defer and risk a stronger rebound to 1.3300 but said resistance at 1.3348 would remain intact, bring another decline later.

Recommendation: Sell at 1.3150 for 1.2950 with stop above 1.3250.

Longer term - The selloff from 1.6194 (21 Jan 2002) to 0.9059 (07 Nov 2007) is viewed as (A) wave which is a 5-waver as labeled on the monthly chart as below, the subsequently rally is labeled as (B) with impulsive A leg of (B) ended at 1.3066, wave B of (B) is unfolding which has either ended at 0.9407 or would extend one more fall but downside should be limited to 0.9200 and 0.9000 should hold.

On Thursday morning the yellow metal still traded near the 1,225 mark. However, the main difference, compared to the Wednesday’s trading session was that the commodity price was being supported by the 55-hour SMA, which was located just below the 1,225 level. Meanwhile, the 100-hour SMA was moving in on the commodity price from the just above the 1,231 level. Although, a new discovery was made on Thursday morning. The possible borders of a short term ascending channel have been drawn. If the yellow metal continues to trade in the drawn borders, the commodity price will not reach above the 1,230 mark. The hypothesis might become stronger, as the 100 and 200-hour SMAs move downwards and the 55-hour moving average would decline down to the 1,220 level.

The US Dollar appreciated strongly against the Yen on Wednesday morning, reaching intraday high circa 113.60. Nevertheless, it had lost most of its gains by late evening and, thus, started this session at a relatively similar level as yesterday. Subsequently, the rate was supported by the 100-hour SMA near the 112.94 mark prior to testing a resistance cluster formed by the 20– and 55-hour SMAs. It is possible that the rate approaches the monthly R1 at 113.94 in the upcoming hours. However, the rate’s general movement sideways during the past three sessions suggests that some changes may occur in the nearest time. In general, the rate is likely to remain within the boundaries of the current channel if today’s fundamentals from the US do not change this technical information substantially.

The common European currency is trading against the US Dollar as expected. The pair surged on Wednesday and hit the resistance put up by the 55-hour SMA just above the 1.1350 mark. As a result of that, a retreat began, which has been stalled by the support of the monthly PP at the 1.1331 level. However, the pair is still set to decline due to various reasons. First of all the 55-hour SMA continues to move lower, as it is strengthening the resistance of the weekly PP. Secondly, the currency exchange rate has passed the support of the 200-hour SMA, which on Thursday morning was providing resistance. Moreover, the 200-hour SMA near the 1.1340 level managed to hold off any attempted rebounds by the Euro against the Greenback. Due to that a fall down to the 1.1250 mark can be expected.