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Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.12; (P) 128.59; (R1) 129.04; More...

No change in EUR/JPY's outlook even though it's losing upside momentum. Further rise is expected with 127.43 minor support intact. We'd be cautious of strong resistance between 61.8% projection of 114.84 to 125.80 from 122.39 at 129.16 and medium term projection level at 129.89 to bring short term topping. On the downside, below 1.2743 will bring deeper pull back to 125.80 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, the break of 126.09 support turned resistance should have confirmed completion of down trend form 149.76 (2014 high), at 109.03 (2016 low). Current rise from 109.03 should target 100% projection of 109.03 to 124.08 from 114.84 at 129.89 first. Break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 and above. Medium term outlook will now remain bullish as long as 122.39 support holds.

EUR/USD

The dollar advanced against all of its major rivals, again receiving a vote of confidence from European investors, which sent the EUR/USD pair down to 1.1311. Most of the common currency's daily decline can be attributed to ECB's Executive Board member Benoit Coeure, who said that the governing council hasn't discussed policy changes, pouring cold water over expectations of soon-to-come tapering. The greenback retreated modestly early US session, as investors turned cautious ahead of the minutes of the Federal Reserve June meeting. The greenback ticked lower as an initial reaction to the release, but turned back higher afterwards, with the EUR/USD pair ending the day around 1.1330. The Minutes showed that policy makers are divided over when to start reducing their balance sheet, whilst most Fed members think that recent softness in inflation have little bearing on inflation trend.

Macroeconomic news coming from the EU were encouraging, but attention remained focused in Central Banks. Nevertheless, the final EU services and composite PMIs for June confirmed that growth remained strong in the region at the end of the second quarter, as the final Markit composite output index came in at 56.3, above the early estimate of 55.7, and only slightly below the six-year record high of 56.8. Growth in the services sector was also revised higher from flash PMIs, while May retail sales for the EUR doubled expectations, up by 0.4% in the month, and by 2.6% when compared to May 2016.

The EUR/USD pair kept retreating after nearing a major long-term resistance last week, the 1.1460 region, but a sustainable slide is not yet clear. Intraday technical readings show that the risk remains towards the upside, as the pair failed to regain the 1.1340 level, the 38.2% retracement of its latest bullish run and now the immediate resistance, whilst the 20 SMA in the 4 hours chart accelerated south above the current level. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart have managed to bounce some, but remain well below their mid-lines. The critical support remains to be 1.1290, June 28th low, with a break below it required to confirm a steeper decline.

Support levels: 1.1290 1.1250 1.1210

Resistance levels: 1.1340 1.1380 1.1420

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair advanced up to 113.68, a new 2-month high early Europe, but retreated from the level as Wall Street turned into the red after the opening, whilst Treasury yields also eased. The release of the latest meeting FOMC Minutes, revived demand for the greenback, with also advancing afterwards and the pair settling in the 113.40 region, as US policy makers showed little concerns over the latest slowdown in inflation, still thinking of it as temporally, with several seeing the balance sheet reduction staring in a couple of months. Earlier on the day, the Japanese services PMI came in stronger-than-expected, up to 53.3 in June from 53.0 in May, although the composite reading slipped from 53.4 to 52.9 in the same month. There are no big news scheduled in the country for the upcoming Asian session. From a technical point of view, the 4 hours chart shows that the pair keeps meeting buying interest on approaches to the 113.00 region, despite the limited upward strength coming from technical indicators, as the Momentum heads lower within positive territory, while the RSI turned marginally higher, but still below previous daily highs. Overall, the pair is poised to extend its advance, although the pair can see little action this Thursday, ahead of the release of the US Nonfarm Payroll report next Friday.

Support levels: 112.95 112.50 112.10

Resistance levels: 113.70 114.05 114.40

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair fell down to 1.2892, with the following bounce limited to the 1.2930 region and posting a third consecutive lower low daily basis, hit by a poor Services PMI. In June, and according to Markit's index, the sector's growth decelerated for a second consecutive month, coming in at 53.4 from previous 53.8. This marks the third disappointing number release this week, as the indexes for the manufacturing and the construction sectors were also below previous and expected. The pair trades marginally lower daily basis, as the release of FOMC Minutes had little to add to what the market already knew, resulting in limited movements across the board. Technically, the risk remains towards the downside, given that in the 4 hours chart the price is below a bearish 20 SMA, currently at 1.2960, whilst the RSI indicator resumed its decline, now at 46 as the Momentum hovers directionless within negative territory. The pair is barely below 1.2925, the 23.6% retracement of its latest rally and the immediate resistance, but it would take an extension beyond 1.2960 to revert the ongoing bearish trend.

Support levels: 1.2890 1.2860 1.2820

Resistance levels: 1.2925 1.2960 1.2995

GOLD

Gold prices extended their declines this Thursday, with spot ending the day at $1,220.97 a troy ounce, reverting and early advance triggered by geopolitical woes in Asia, after North Korea latest ballistic missile test. Spot came under pressure after during the US afternoon, as the Minutes of the latest Fed's meeting showed that policy makers are firmly walking the tightening path, with no majors concerns over the latest slowdown in inflation. A recovery in US stocks, also weighed on the commodity. The daily chart shows that the bright metal was once again contained by selling interest around the 200 DMA, while reaching a fresh almost 2-month low of 1.217.40. Technical indicators in the mentioned time frame hold within bearish territory, with the RSI heading resuming its decline around 31, and the Momentum lacking directional strength within negative territory. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the upside remains well-limited, with the price still developing below a bearish 20 SMA, today at 1,228.00, while technical indicators bounce modestly from oversold readings, not enough to support additional gains ahead.

Support levels: 1,217.40 1,208.30 1,198.20

Resistance levels: 1,228.00 1,236.50 1,241.80

WTI CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices plunged over 4% this Wednesday, with West Texas Intermediate futures ending the day at $45.10 a barrel, hit by news that Russia is not willing to support further OPEC cuts, and new evidence that the organization rose its exports in June. Russian officials announced that the government will oppose further cuts, indicating that it would send the wrong message to the market, while Reuters data showed that the organization exported 25.92 million barrels per day in June, up 450,000 bpd from May and 1.9 million bpd more than a year earlier. WTI daily chart supports further slides ahead, as the price retreated strongly after meeting selling interest around the 50% retracement of its latest decline, now trading below the 38.2% retracement of the same slide at 45.90. In the same chart, technical indicators have turned sharply lower, currently challenging their mid-lines, whilst the price is barely above a directionless 20 DMA. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the commodity is bearish, with the Momentum indicator heading south well below its 100 level and the RSI indicator consolidating around 36, as the price broke below its 20 and 200 SMAs, now hovering a few cents above a flat 100 SMA.

Support levels: 44.40 43.70 43.10

Resistance levels: 45.90 46.60 47.20

DJIA

US equities ended a choppy session with modest gains, with the Nasdaq Composite outstanding amid a bounce in the tech sector, with the index up 40 points, to end at 6,150.86. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the day unchanged, down 1 point at 21,478.17, while the S&P added 3 points, to 2,432.54. Health-care, and financial equities also edged higher, while the energy sector weighed, amid the sharp decline in oil prices. Within the Dow, the best performer was Intel that added 275%, followed by Boeing that added 1.73%. Walt Disney led decliners, with a 1.75% decline, followed by Chevron that shed 1.68%. From a technical point of view, the index maintains a neutral-to-bearish stance, with indicators heading south around their mid-lines, but a bullish 20 DMA still providing support around 21,400. In the 4 hours chart, the Momentum indicator head sharply lower below its 100 level, the RSI indicator aims north around 54, while the index settled a few points above a bullish 20 SMA, overall limiting chances of a steeper decline ahead.

Support levels: 21,449 21,401 21,361

Resistance levels: 21,506 21,563 21,600

FTSE100

The UK benchmark, the FTSE 100, gained 10 points to close the day at 7,367.60, helped by a weaker Pound, but unable to find direction, with investors trapped within geopolitical tensions in Asia, and expectations over the FOMC Minutes´ release later on the day. Following an over 27% advance, Worldpay Group was the worst performer, down 8.82%, followed by Old mutual that shed 1.74%. Tesco led advancers with a 3.80% gain, followed by Provident Financial that added 3.49%. The index trades now around its 100 DMA in the daily chart, still well below a sharply bearish 20 SMA, and with technical indicators advancing within negative territory, limiting chances of a steeper advance. In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the scale leans slightly towards the upside, as the index settled above a still bearish 20 SMA, but the RSI indicator consolidates within neutral territory, whilst the Momentum indicator advances beyond the 100 level at fresh weekly highs, not enough, however, to confirm a strong rally ahead.

Support levels: 7,331 7,294 7,256

Resistance levels: 7,380 7,424 7,452

DAX

European equities hovered with gains and losses for most of the session, ending with modest gains, in spite of the slump in energy-related equities amid oil prices decline. The German DAX closed the day at 12,453.68, up 0.13% or 16 points, with Adidas leading advancers up 4.95%, followed by Deutsche Boerse which added 3.24%. Bayer was the worst performer, closing the day 0.94% lower, followed by Daimler that shed 0.84%, with auto makers under pressure across the region, on news that UK car registrations fell 4.8% in June. The index advanced modestly in after-hours trading, but the upward potential still seems limited according to the daily chart, as the index has held within its early week range, barely above a bullish 100 DMA but well below a bearish 20 DMA, whilst technical indicators have posted modest recoveries within bearish territory, with not enough momentum to confirm additional gains ahead. In the 4 hours chart, the index is right above a bearish 20 SMA, the RSI indicator is flat around 43, whilst the Momentum indicator heads higher around its 100 level, in line with the longer term perspective.

Support levels: 12,420 12,364 12,310

Resistance levels: 12,490 12,536 12,587

Weekly
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: N/A
    •    ime of formation: N/A
    •    Trend bias: Near term up

Daily
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Hammer
    •    Time of formation: 3 Feb 2016
    •    Trend bias: Up

EURGBP – 0.8776

As the single currency has retreated after last week’s brief rise to 0.8882, retaining our view that further consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 0.8723 support cannot be ruled out, however, reckon previous support at 0.8652 would contain downside and bring another upmove later, above said resistance at 0.8882 would extend recent upmove to 0.8900 but overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 0.8940-50 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9576-0.8304) and reckon psychological resistance at 0.9000 would hold from here, price should falter well below 0.9090 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), bring retreat later. 

On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 0.8723 support is likely, reckon support at 0.8652 would attract renewed buying interest and bring another upmove later. Only a break below support at 0.8603 would suggest top is formed instead, bring retracement of recent upmove to 0.8550 but reckon previous support at 0.8524 would contain downside and price should stay well above 0.8450-60, bring a strong rebound later next month. 

Recommendation: Buy again at 0.8660 for 0.8880 with stop below 0.8560.

On the weekly chart, last week’s retreat after brief rise to 0.8882 formed a shooting star as suggested in our previous update, retaining our view that consolidation below this level would be seen and initial downside bias remains for pullback to 0.8720-25, then 0.6890-00, however, reckon support at 0.8652 would limit downside and bring another rise later. Above said resistance at 0.8882 would signal the rise from 0.8304 low is still in progress for headway to 0.8900-10, then 0.8950, however, reckon upside would be limited to 0.9000 and 0.9045-50 should hold from here, price should falter well below 0.9090 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).

On the downside, although pullback to 0.8720-25 cannot be ruled out, reckon support at 0.8652 would hold and bring another rise to aforesaid upside targets. A weekly close below the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.8597) would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, risk weakness to 0.8550 but a drop below previous resistance at 0.8531 is needed to add credence to this view, bring further fall to 0.8490-00, then towards support at 0.8457 which is likely to hold from here.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting on 13-14 June showed that monetary policy members were split over the timing of shrinking the balance sheet. While some Fed officials want to kick off the process for reducing the holdings of treasuries and asset-backed securities in September, others want to see more clues on inflation, which hasbeen edging lower. These mixed signalshave kept the bulls and bears on the sidelines and that is why it is not surprising to see a muted market reaction.

While U.S. Treasury yields declined slightly, they are still trading at multi-week highs, providing little incentive to short the U.S. dollar. Traders are still awaiting Friday's Labor Report for fresh signals on the health of the U.S. job market. I think this report will be of more importance than the released minutes and will be a critical test to the U.S. currency. While charts are still indicating oversold signals on the USD, it will require a fundamental catalyst to convince bulls to return. The 138,000 jobs added to the economy in May came sharply below the expected increase of 185,000. Wage growth also disappointed, with average earnings rising 2.5% annually. If the NFP report managed to surprise by moving to the upside on Friday, the USD will likely find a near-term bottom. However, the headline figure wouldnot be enough, even if it came above 180,000. Wage growth is what's needed to narrow the gapbetween the Fed's dot plot and the markets own dot plot. Today's agenda includes the ISM Non-Manufacturing Report and ADP Employment Change; ifboth of these report more robust figures, they could provide fresh support to the USD.

Oil prices made most of the headlines yesterday after declining more than 4%. The steep fall occurred after an eight-session rally, but thanks to the American Petroleum Institute Report releasedon Wednesday, which showeda huge drop of 5.8 million barrels in crude supplies, an endwas put to the steep fall. Today's EIA Report will likely confirm that inventories declined last week by more than 2 million barrels. Overall, one report is not enough to generatea bullish market sentiment. It requires steady declines in inventories, along with a drop in drilling activities. Traders will also keep a close eye on Libya's and Nigeria's production, which accounted for half of OPEC's production increase in June. Given that nothing has changed fundamentally this week and yesterday's selloff looks mostly technical, I believe prices will stabilize for the rest of the week.

Weekly

    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Doji
    •    Time of formation: 20 Feb 2017
    •    Trend bias: Up

Daily

    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Doji
    •    Time of formation: 1 Sep 2016
    •    Trend bias: Near term down

EUR/CHF – 1.0958

As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone after staging a strong rebound from 1.0833, adding credence to our bullish view that correction from 1.0988 has ended and upside bias remains for test of this level, break there would encourage for headway to previous resistance at 1.1001. Looking ahead, only a break above there would retain bullishness and bring subsequent rise to 1.1050-60, then 1.1100, having said that, price should falter below another previous resistance at 1.1201.

On the downside, whilst pullback to 1.0920-25 cannot be ruled out, reckon the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.0906) would limit downside and bring another rise to aforesaid upside targets. A daily close below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0900) would defer and risk weakness to 1.0845 but only break there would signal another leg of corrective fall from 1.0988 is underway for test of 1.0833, then towards previous support at 1.0792 which is likely to hold from here. 

Recommendation: Hold long entered at 1.0865 for 1.1065 with stop below 1.0835.

On the weekly chart, last week’s rebound did form a long white candlestick as suggested in our previous update and bullishness remains for gain to resistance at 1.0988, however, above there is needed to retain bullishness and extend recent upmove from 1.0631 to previous resistance at 1.1001, a sustained breach above this level would signal the fall from 1.1201 has ended, bring further gain to 1.1100 and possibly test of resistance at 1.1129 but price should falter below said recent high at 1.1201. 

On the downside, whilst pullback to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.0911) cannot be ruled out, price should stay well above indicated support at 1.0833, bring another rebound later. A break of said support at 1.0833 would risk test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0810) but only break of previous support at 1.0780 would abort and signal top has been formed at 1.0988 instead, bring further weakness to 1.0720, however, still reckon support at 1.0656 would remain intact, bring another rebound later.

NZDUSD has shifted to a neutral stance on the 4-hour chart, after a strong rally that took prices to a 5-month high of 0.7345 on June 30.

An uptrend took place when prices bounced from the May 11 low of 0.6816, but upside momentum stalled and RSI fell back below 50 into bearish territory. The oscillator stopped declining and is currently moving sideways, suggesting that NZDUSD is now in a consolidation phase.

The risk has tilted to the downside since the Tenkan-sen line crossed below the Kijun-sen line on July 4. NZDUSD is currently trading within the Ichimoku cloud and support was provided at 0.7253 after prices fell briefly below the cloud. Further support is located at the June 22 low of 0.7196. From here, an early June support level at 0.7114 comes into view. A drop below 0.7055 would change the current bullish market structure.

A move back above resistance at the Kijun-sen line and key level of 0.7300 would open the way for a re-test of the 0.7345 high and from here there would be a resumption of the recent uptrend to target the February 7 high of 0.7374.

NZDUSD is neutral in the short-term as long as prices remain above 0.7250. The overall market structure on the 4-hour chart remains bullish.

The short-term bullish phase that started on June 14 has stalled at a high of 113.67 reached on July 5. The subsequent corrective move lower is not surprising since the market reached overbought conditions as indicated by the RSI reaching near 70.

The key psychological level at 113.00 appears to be supportive, as USDJPY has been closing above this level all week. If prices fall below this level and continue to decline, then the next support level at 111.80 comes into view. This happens to be the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 108.77 to 113.67. A further decline risks a break below the 50% Fibonacci at 111.22, which would lead to a retracement of more than half of the uptrend from June 14 and would change the trend.

For now there are no signs yet of a shift in the short-term uptrend, as the market is above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which are still pointing north and are positively aligned, while the shorter-term MA is above the longer-term MA. The RSI is in bullish territory above 50. However, it has flattened, suggesting that a consolidation phase is possible in the near term.

Should USDJPY regain its upside momentum, there is scope to re-test 113.67. Surpassing this peak would open the way towards the May 10 high of 114.36. This move would help strengthen the upside momentum and bring a resumption of the uptrend to target the key 115.00 level.

While the short-term market structure remains bullish, in the bigger picture, USDJPY has been neutral since March. The market needs to rise above 115.00 in order to provide a stronger bullish outlook.

The US dollar had weakened against the yen during the early Asian trading session on the mixed tone from the minutes of the Fed's latest meeting. However, the greenback gathered strength as the yen gave up gains ahead of the European open. Australia's trade surplus lent some short-lived gains to the aussie.

Minutes from the Fed's latest meeting in June, at which the US central bank voted to raise interest rates, showed an absence of consensus about when to start the process of Fed's balance sheet reduction. In a time of low inflation, some of the officials wanted to wait until later in the year to start the balance sheet reduction. Looking at forex markets, the greenback weakened against the yen following the release. However, the dollar regained some ground against the yen near the close of Asian trading, last trading at 113.33 yen. Several key US data will be released later in the day, including the ADP employment report, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and the initial jobless claims. All of these could have a significant impact on the greenback.

The Australian dollar rose against the greenback after stronger than expected trade data. Australia's trade surplus in May was A$2.47 billion, coming in well above the expected A$1.1 billion. Aussie/dollar went from 0.7595 to 0.7610 as the data was released, but the gains were short-lived. The pair was last trading at 0.7600 ahead of the European open.

The euro was under pressure against the dollar during the early Asian session, but managed to recover some of the losses as the session was ending. Euro/dollar opened at 1.1351 and fell to 1.1338 ahead of the European open.

Disappointing May industrial orders out of Germany added to the euro pressure in the late Asian trading session. Markets were expecting industrial orders to had grown 2% month-on-month in May, but the number came at only half of that growth, after a decline of 2.1% in April. However, currency traders didn't attribute much significance to it as euro/dollar bounced up shortly after the release. The release of the European Central Bank minutes from the bank's latest meeting might be closely watched later in the day.

Sterling rose modestly against the greenback, last trading at $1.2933, ahead of some UK key data releases tomorrow.

Oil retraced some of yesterday's heavy losses, on a report that showed a decline in US crude and gasoline stockpiles. WTI was last trading at $45.61 a barrel, up from yesterday's heavy plunge when it reached a low of $44.51.

Looking at gold, the precious metal was under pressure today after two days of gains. The commodity's price fell to $1,223.60 as the Asian markets were closing for the day.

According to the minutes release on Wednesday evening, from the last Fed policy meeting on June 13-14, it appears that Federal Reserve policymakers are increasingly split on the outlook for inflation and how it might affect the future pace of US interest rate rises. Fed Chair Janet Yellen, at a press conference after the minutes were released, described a recent decline in inflation as temporary and the central bank kept its forecast of one more rate rise this year and three the next. However, some policymakers have been increasingly worried about the Fed's struggle to get inflation back to its 2% objective. Underlying inflation slipped again in May to 1.4 % and has run below target for more than five years. In the minutes, some policymakers also stated that 'the inflation weakness made them less comfortable with the current implied path of rate hikes”. Traders will now be looking ahead to tomorrow's Non Farm Payroll release for further guidance.

USDJPY climbed nearly 0.5% on Wednesday to 113.681, the highest levels seen for 2 months, as traders trimmed down short USD positions before upcoming data sheds more light on the ongoing recovery in the US economy. USDJPY has retraced since making that high to currently trade around 113.15.

EURUSD fell to 1.1312 on Wednesday following comments made by ECB´s Benoit Coeuré who said that 'the Governing Council has not discussed policy changes”, cooling down hopes of tapering. Mr. Coeuré also played down recent financial market volatility that was partly sparked by comments from ECB President Draghi that were viewed as an indication of a coming policy change. In addition, the release of German and Eurozone Services PMIs in June both beat their estimates, but were weaker than the May reports, further pressuring EUR. Currently EURUSD is trading around 1.1340.

GBPUSD traded near to 1 week lows as the poor data release of Britain's Service Sector added confirmation to growing barriers to growth for the UK economy and deter the Bank of England raising interest rates any time soon. Following the release GBPUSD traded down to a low on the day of 1.2893 before rebounding to currently trade around 1.2945.

Gold remains relatively flat after 2 days of gains currently trading around $1,227.

OPEC Oil exports climbed for a second month in June per Thomson Reuters Oil Research data. In June OPEC exported 25.92 million barrels per day (bpd), up 450,000 bpd from May and 1.9 million bpd more than a year earlier. The head of the International Energy Agency commented that 'rising output from key oil producers could hamper expectations that the oil market would rebalance in the second half of the year”. As a result, Oil prices fell nearly 4% on Wednesday, ending its longest bull-run in more than 5 years with WTI trading as low as $45.32pb on the day. Currently WTI is trading around $45.60pb with Brent trading around $48.25pb.

Today, at 12:30 BST, the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts are released. The report contains an overview of financial market, economic and monetary developments, which should provide more insight into future interest rate decisions in the Eurozone.

Later, at 13:15 BST, US ADP Employment change for June is released. The consensus is 185K (previously 235K). If we see a release worse than expectations, it will have negative implications for consumer spending and discouraging economic growth and therefore put downward pressure on USD.

This release will be followed at 13:30 by US Initial Jobless Claims. The release is expected to be 243K (244K previously). Jobless Claims has a direct bearing on the US Labour Market, whereby a higher than expected number indicates weakness and therefore is bearish for USD.

The EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Jun 30) data release at 16:00 BST rounds off the day's economic data releases. The consensus is for a decrease of 2.833 Million compared to the previous slight gain of 0.118 Million. With Oil under recent downward pressure we would expect this data release to provide additional volatility in the Market.

USD/CHF - 0.9655

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 0.9649

Kijun-Sen level                    : 0.9663

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 0.9643

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 0.9624

Original strategy :

Buy at 0.9600, Target: 0.9700, Stop: 0.9565

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 0.9600, Target: 0.9700, Stop: 0.9565

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback retreated after rising to 0.9688, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 0.9621 support cannot be ruled out, however, if our view that low has been formed at 0.9552 is correct, downside would be limited to 0.9600 and bring another rebound later, above said resistance would extend the rise from 0.9552 low for retracement of recent decline to 0.9700 but reckon upside would be limited and price should falter below resistance area at 0.9738-43.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and we are looking to buy dollar on pullback as 0.9600 should limit downside and bring another rise later. Below 0.9565-70 would abort and signal intra-day top is formed, risk retest of 0.9552 first.