Sample Category Title

EUR/USD - 1.0893

Original strategy  :

Sell at 1.0970, Target: 1.0870, Stop: 1.1005

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.0970, Target: 1.0870, Stop: 1.1005

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Euro’s selloff after yesterday’s initial brief rise to 1.1025 suggests top has been formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for further fall to 1.0875 support, however, a sustained break below there is needed to add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent rise to 1.0851 support and possibly towards 1.0825-30 but reckon 1.0800 would hold from here due to near term overbought condition.

In view of this, we are looking to sell euro on recovery as 1.0970-80 should limit upside. Above resistance at 1.0997 would bring retest of said yesterday’s high at 1.1025, however, break there is needed to signal recent upmove from 1.0340 low has resumed for headway to 1.1050 but reckon upside would be limited to 1.1065-70 (61.8% projection of 1.0602-1.0951 measuring from 1.0851).

USD/JPY - 114.09

Original strategy  :

Buy at 113.10, Target: 114.10, Stop: 112.75

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 113.35, Target: 114.45, Stop: 113.00

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As dollar’s upmove has gathered momentum, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and bullishness remains for further gain to 114.25-30 (100% projection of 110.87-113.05 measuring from 112.09) and then 114.50-55 (100% projection of 108.13-111.78 measuring from 110.87), however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 114.75-80 and price should falter below 115.00, bring retreat later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy dollar on pullback as the Kijun-Sen (now at 113.31) should contain downside. Only below previous resistance at 113.05 would defer and suggest top is formed, bring correction of recent upmove to 112.70-80 but reckon support at 112.39 would remain intact. 

The US shale oil industry has seen a marked recovery since February last year because of higher oil prices. The US Baker Hughes data, that records the number of new Oil Rigs, is showing additional Rigs added every week. The increase in shale oil supply has offset OPEC's recent output cut effort to an extent.

However, the Saudi Arabia Oil Minister, Khalid al-Falih, stated on Monday May 8, at the Asia Oil and Gas Conference in Malaysia that "the output cut could be extended another 6 months or even further into 2018". OPEC will hold a meeting in Vienna on May 25 where the decision whether to extend the output cut agreement will likely be announced.

WTI has retraced substantially around 12.88% since April 12 as prices have reached a mid-term major resistance zone, where there is heavy selling pressure.

Notably, the downtrend was held since last Frida, as it was trading at a mid-term major support zone between $43 – $45 where there is stronger support.

On the 4-hourly chart, the price has moved from the lower Bollinger band to the middle Bollinger band, suggesting the recent bearish momentum is waning.

If a firm extension decision is made after the meeting then it will likely result in a rebound in oil prices. Conversely, if no further extension is made, it will likely result in further falling of oil prices.

The resistance is at $47.00, followed by $47.50 and $48.00.

The support line is at $46.50, followed by $46.00 and $45.50.

The US EIA Crude Oil Inventories data (for the week ending May 5) will be released at 15:30 BST on Wednesday May 10. Please be advised that this release is highly likely to cause volatility in oil prices.

The USD/JPY is in bullish trend following inverted SHS pattern on H4 chart. At this point we see bearish divergence looming at POC zone. POC zone 114.50-65 (W H5, Order block, historical sellers) could tank the price should we see a retracement into the zone. Adding to that, the ATR has already been overshot so the retracement is likely to happen. Targets are 114.00 and 113.50 (W H4 and M H4). Treat this setup as counter trend and a correction in an uptrend.

GBP/USD – 1.2918

Recent wave: Wave V of larger degree wave (III) has ended at 1.1986 and major correction has commenced from there for gain to 1.3000 and 1.3140-50

Trend: Near term up

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.2845, Target: 1.3025, Stop: 1.2785

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop: -

New strategy :

Sell at 1.2955, Target: 1.2775, Stop: 1.3015

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

As cable has retreated after rising to 1.2995 yesterday, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen with mild downside bias for minor correction to 1.2900 support, break there would bring further fall towards 1.2831 support, however, a break below this level is needed to signal a temporary top has been formed at 1.2995, bring retracement of recent rise to 1.2770-75 but previous support at 1.2757 should hold from here. We are keeping our view that the wave c as well as larger degree wave B has ended at 1.2109, hence impulsive wave C has commenced from there with wave i of C ended at 1.2616, follow by a correction to 1.2365 (end of wave ii) and wave iii rally is unfolding.

Our preferred count on the daily chart is that cable's rebound from 1.3500 (wave (A) trough) is unfolding as a wave (B) with A ended at 1.7043, followed by triangle wave B and wave C as well as wave (B) has ended at 1.7192, the subsequent selloff is the larger degree wave (C) which is still unfolding with minor wave (III) of larger degree wave 3 ended at 1.1986, hence wave (IV) correction is in progress which could either be a triangle wave (IV) of a complex formation but upside should be limited to 1.3500 and price should falter well below 1.4000, bring another decline in wave (V) of 3 for weakness to 1.1500, then 1.1200.

On the upside, whilst recovery to 1.2950-55 cannot be ruled out, reckon said resistance at 1.2995 would cap upside and bring another retreat later. Above said resistance at 1.2995 would extend recent upmove to 1.3040-50 but overbought condition should limit upside to 1.3075-80 and price should falter below 1.3100. 

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0885; (P) 1.0953 (R1) 1.0991; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.1020 temporary top. Another rise will be expected as long as 1.0874 support holds. Above 1.1020 will extend current rally to 100% projection of 1.0339 to 1.0828 from 1.0569 at 1.1058. However, rise from 1.0339 is still seen as a corrective move. Hence we'd expect strong resistance from 1.1058 projection to limit upside and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.0874 support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0569 support first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate long term reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2917; (P) 1.2952; (R1) 1.2976; More...

No change in GBP/USD's outlook. With 1.2830 minor support intact, further rise is still expected. Current rally could target 161.8% projection of 1.2108 to 1.2614 from 1.2365 at 1.3184. At this point, price actions from 1.1946 are still interpreted as a correction pattern. Therefore, we'd expect strong resistance below 1.3444 to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 1.2830 support will indicate short term topping. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.2614 support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term reversal yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9905; (P) 0.9948; (R1) 1.0030; More.....

USD/CHF's rally extends to as high as 1.0055 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside. As noted before, current development revived the case that correction from 1.0342 is already completed at 0.9812. Further rise should be seen to 1.0107 resistance first. Decisive break there will bring a retest on 1.0342 high. On the downside, below 0.9991 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation first before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, we're still maintaining that firm break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the pair. However, the corrective nature of the fall from 1.0342 is starting to give the medium term outlook a bullish favor. Hence, in stead of looking for topping signal around 1.0342, we'd now pay closer attention to upside acceleration as USD/CHF approaches this level again.

GBP/JPY - 147.20

Recent wave: Medium term low formed at 120.50 and (A)-(B)-(C) major correction has commenced with (A) leg ended at 148.45, hence wave (B) is unfolding for retreat to 131.00-10.

Trend: Near term up

Original strategy:

Buy at 144.50, Target: 146.50, Stop: 143.90

Position: -
Target: -
Stop: -

New strategy :

Buy at 146.20, Target: 148.20, Stop: 145.60

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

As sterling has surged again after finding renewed buying interest at 145.70, adding credence to our bullish view that recent upmove from 135.60 is still in progress and may extend further gain to 148.00, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond previous chart resistance at 148.45, bring retreat later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy sterling on pullback as 146.10-20 should limit downside, bring another rise later. Below said support at 145.70 would defer and suggest a temporary top is possibly formed, bring correction to 145.00-10 but only break of support at 144.85 would provide confirmation, bring correction to 144.50 first. 

Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.


Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.66; (P) 112.98; (R1) 113.56; More...

USD/JPY's rally accelerates to as high as 114.10 so far today. The development is in line with our view that correction from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 108.12. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 115.49 resistance next. Firm break there will now resume larger rally from 98.97 to 125.85 high. On the downside, below 113.04 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It's uncertain whether it's completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 115.49 resistance will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.