Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9928; (P) 0.9987; (R1) 1.0020; More.....

USD/CHF's fall from 1.0107 extends lower. Break of 0.9980 support suggests that rebound from 0.9812 has completed. And the corrective fall from 1.0342 is still in progress and is starting another falling leg. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 0.9812 support. On the upside, above 1.0008 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0107 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, we're still maintaining that firm break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the cross. However, the corrective nature of the fall from 1.0342 is starting to give the medium term outlook a bullish favor. Hence, in stead of looking for topping signal around 1.0342, we'd now pay closer attention to upside acceleration as USD/CHF approaches this level again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.09; (P) 108.65; (R1) 109.00; More....

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation above 108.12 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. Near term outlook stays bearish as current development argues that rise from 98.97 is already completed at 118.65. Hence, we'd expect upside of recovery to limited by 110.10 minor resistance to bring another decline. Below 108.12 will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 98.97 low. Nonetheless, break of 110.10 will be the first sign of near term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 112.19 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it's not completed yet and is extending. In case of deeper decline, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

EURUSD

The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday topped at 1.0736 after bounced off the trend line support as you can see on my H4 chart above and now traded above the H4 EMA 200. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.0825 before retesting 1.0873 key resistance which remains a good place to sell with a tight stop loss. Immediate support is seen around 1.0700. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0650 region. Overall I remain neutral.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD surged higher to 1.2903 yesterday and closed at 1.2841, just above the daily EMA 200 (1.2780) as you can see on my daily chart above. From a daily chart perspective, the movement above the daily EMA 200 following a double bottom formation at 1.2000 psychological level suggests a valid bullish scenario. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.3000 – 1.3050 area. Immediate support is seen around 1.2780. A clear break and daily close back below that area would interrupt the bullish scenario and reactivate my neutral mode.

USDJPY

The USDJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 108.31. This is a good sign for the bearish scenario, but note that as long as stay above 108.13, the hammer/pin bar bullish reversal warning remains valid. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 108.13. A clear break below that area would expose 107.50 or lower. Immediate resistance is seen around 108.80. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 109.20 area but key resistance remains at 110.10.

USDCHF

The USDCHF had a significant bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 0.9955. The bias is bearish in nearest term. Price fell below the H4 EMA 200 as you can see on my H4 chart above suggests a bearish outlook testing 0.9880 before retesting 0.9813. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.0020. A clear break and daily close back above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear. Overall I remain neutral.

USD/JPY - 108.84

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 108.64

Kijun-Sen level                  : 108.74

Ichimoku cloud top             : 108.90

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 108.68

Original strategy  :

Bought at 108.45, Target: 109.45, Stop: 108.10

Position :  - Long at 108.45

Target :  - 109.45

Stop : - 108.10

New strategy  :

Hold long entered at 108.45, Target: 109.45, Stop: 108.30

Position :  - Long at 108.45

Target :  - 109.45

Stop : - 108.30

Although the greenback slipped to 108.32 overnight, as dollar found renewed buying interest there and has staged a rebound, retaining our view that further consolidation above this week’s low at 108.13 would be seen and test of resistance at 109.22 is likely, break there would add credence to our view that a temporary low has been formed there, bring retracement of recent decline to 109.40-45 (previous resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 111.58-108.13), however, reckon upside would be limited to 109.86-87 (50% Fibonacci retracement and previous resistance) and price should falter below 110.25-30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), bring retreat later.

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 108.45. Below 108.30-32 would risk retest of 108.13 support (this week’s low) but break there is needed to signal recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 107.75-80 later.

Asian equity markets fell across the board on Wednesday, following a negative lead from the U.S. on earnings disappointment and lower commodity prices despite a weaker U.S. dollar.

The geopolitical tensions concerning North Korea, the French elections, and growing skepticism around the U.S. administration’s ability to deliver on policy pledges drove investors to treasuries, with U.S. 10-year yields dropping to their lowest levels since mid-November. The yield on Japan’s 10-year bonds fell into negative territory earlier today. The more worrying signs are in the shape of the yield curves which seem to be flattening nowadays, an indication of slowing economic growth leading to further selloff in equities. If yield curves continued to flatten further, we’re likely to see a steeper selloff in equities led by banks.

The focus in currency markets remains on the Pound. Yesterday’s surprise move by U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May calling a snap election sent the GBPUSD to its highest levels since October. The 400-pip move from low to high is not a reflection of the short-term fundamental outlook for the U.K.’s economy. But traders expect the snap election to lead to stronger negotiation powers with the EU on Brexit terms, thus a softer exit. Today we expect May to win parliamentary support for the snap election, but the reaction on the Pound to be mild, given it’s already priced in.

The Prime Minister was heavily criticized by some media yesterday, given that only last month she ruled out an early election, but any politician in her shoes would have followed a similar path given the weak position of the opponents.

Although a new vote will add some new uncertainties, the expected larger Conservative majority from an early election will reduce some of the longer-term noise, and given that the Pound is relatively cheap from a fundamental perspective, there’s more potential to see upside moves. However, a lot will depend on the EU side, and whether they decide to take a hard or soft stance.

EUR/USD

The EURUSD pair was dragged by strong rally of sterling and overall weaker dollar and rallied strongly on Tuesday, gaining almost 1% in the biggest one-day rally since Mar 15 that hit fresh three-week high above 1.0700 breakpoint. Lift above 1.0700 signalled extended correction of 1.0906/1.0570 descend, as the pair approaches next pivot at 1.0738 (daily Kijun-sen line / 50% retracement). Daily close above 1.0700 is seen as strong bullish signal, while extension above Kijun-sen barrier is needed to confirm bullish continuation which may extend towards next significant barrier at 1.0776 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement).

The Euro will be looking for Wednesday's release of Eurozone CPI data for March, which may further boost teh single currency in better-than-expected release (CPI m/m is forecasted at 0.8% in March compared to 0.4% in Feb, while annualized inflation is seen unchanged at 1.5% in March.

The pair is also looking for Eurozone's Trade Balance which is expected to show significant surplus in March (forecast is for 16.2 billion Euros surplus vs 600 million deficit in Feb).
Tuesday's strong rally improved the structure of daily technical studies which became more supportive for further gains.

Broken 1.0700 barrier now acts as support, reinforced by 20SMA, which should ideally contain dips and keep fresh bulls intact.

Support: 1.0700. 1.0677. 1.0663. 1.0636
Resistance: 1.0738. 1.0777. 1.0800. 1.0826

USD/JPY

USD JPY came under pressure again and ended day in red, also closing below 200SMA, after failing to capitalize from bullish signal for stronger recovery, marked by Monday's long-tailed daily candle. The pair dipped below hourly Ichimoku cloud (spanned between 108.74 and 108.48 that was acting as solid support initially) after failure to sustain break above 109.00 handle.

Limited corrective action was forecasted on yesterday's technical comment, as technical studies remain in firm bearish mode and so far ignore strongly oversold daily studies, on the way to key near-term support at 108.11 (Monday's fresh five month low).
negative sentiment on strong safe haven buying on rising geopolitical tensions keeps yen well supported for further advance against the US dollar.

The pair is currently riding on the third wave of five-wave cycle from 118.60 and looking for close below cracked 100% Fibonacci Expansion level at 108.48, to validate wave principles and open way extension towards 106.82 (FE 123.6%).

Interim support lies at 107.86 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 101.18/118.65 rally).

Support: 108.32. 108.11. 107.86. 107.00
Resistance: 108.94. 109.22. 109.43. 109.84

GBP/USD

British pound was top performer on Tuesday, gaining over 2.2% against the dollar, on the biggest one-day rally after 17Jan surge. The pair was in quiet mode during Asian and early European session, before jumping on the roller-coaster. News that UK PM Theresa May was going to deliver the statement in front of her Downing Street 10 office, signalled something serious ahead. Initial rumours about May's possible resignation pushed pound around 100-pips lower to hit daily low at 1.2513 against the greenback. After speculations proved to be false, sterling recovered almost all losses, and surged higher after PM May announced early election in UK, scheduled for June 8. May said that early election was the only way to guarantee political stability for the two-year process of divorce from the EU which started last month on triggering an Article 50.

In strong bullish acceleration, cable surged through three round-figure barriers and extended well above the top of post-referendum 1.2722/1.1986 consolidation phase, generating bullish signal for stronger correction of 1.5015/1.1986 fall.

The pair hit daily high at 1.2905, opening way towards psychological 1.3000 barrier and signalling possible extension towards next pivotal barriers at 1.3113/43 (weekly Ichimoku cloud base / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.5015/1.1986 downleg, on fresh strong bullish sentiment.

Profit-taking on strong Tuesday's rally should be anticipated, however, no firmer bearish signals being generated for now. Initial support lies at 1.2800 zone, followed by pivot at 1.2755 (38.2% of Tuesday's rally) with stronger pullback expected to hold above 1.2663 (Fibonacci 61.8%) to keep strong bulls intact for fresh upside attempts.

Support: 1.2800. 1.2755. 1.2704. 1.2663
Resistance: 1.2905. 1.2950. 1.3000. 1.3060

AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar fell sharply on Tuesday, making the first day in red after four straight days of strong gains. Pullback from recovery high at 0.7610, where rally was capped by daily Tenkan-sen line, on failure above daily cloud top, has accelerated after release of minutes of RBA's April policy review when the central bank held rates steady at record 1.5% low, as minutes suggested caution on rate views. The pair was also under pressure ahead of comments of US Vice President Pence in Tokyo on continued tensions over North Korea.

The pair spiked to 0.7533 low of the day and the lowest since Apr 13, on probe below pivotal 200SMA at 0.7550, but was unable to close below it, as the price bounced on profit-taking action.

Indicators on daily studies are in negative territory and signal increased downside risk, which requires close below 200SMA to trigger further weakness for test of next strong support at 0.7519 (100SMA).

Meantime, corrective attempts should be capped under 0.7570 (4-hr cloud top / Tenkan-sen) to keep fresh bearish sentiment in play.

Support: 0.7541. 0.7533. 0.7519. 0.7500
Resistance: 0.7570. 0.7605. 0.7611. 0.7630

GBPCAD

The GBPCAD cross surged to 1.7278 on Tuesday, hitting the highest since end of Sep 2016, on strong rally of the pound, which was boosted by surprise call for snap election in UK.

Strong rally that took initial barriers at 1.6800/88, as well as psychological 1.7000 barrier, penetrated into thick weekly Ichimoku cloud (cloud base lies at 1.7078) to peak at 1.7278.

Tuesday's strong bullish acceleration broke above med-term consolidation between 1.7119 and 1.5736 and also confirmed double-bottom at 1.5736 (Oct/Jan lows) that is seen as another bullish signal for extension towards net target at 1.7524 (15 Sep 2016 peak).

Support: 1.7100. 1.7000. 1.6896. 1.6806
Resistance: 1.7278. 1.7454. 1.7524. 1.7542

GOLD

Spot Gold remained steady on Tuesday and bounced back to $1292 after posting marginally lower correction low at $1279. The yellow metal remains supported by geopolitical tensions that boost its safe haven appeal and also by weaker dollar. Extended consolidation is expected to precede fresh attack at psychological $1300 barrier and extension towards next target at $1307 on break.

Technical studies remain firmly bullish but overextended that requires caution. However, strong global risk-off mode for now offsets threats of stronger correction on overbought daily RSI / slow stochastic.

Bearish scenario would require firm break below $1277 pivot to signal stronger correction.

Support: 1281. 1279. 1277. 1271
Resistance: 1292. 1295. 1300. 1307

WTI CRUDE OIL

WTI oil remains at the back foot for the fourth consecutive day and extended pullback from fresh five-week high at $53.74 to $52.09, slightly below Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of $47.07/$53.74 rally.

Daily slow stochastic is heading south and showing more room at the downside, after signalling correction on forming bearish divergence. Correction should be ideally contained at $51.66 (daily 55/100SMA bull-cross) to keep intact overall bullish sentiment which was dented by surge in US shale oil output that offsets attempts of oil producers to curb global oversupply by cutting output and boost oil prices.

Conversely, extension below $51.66 would risk test of next pivot at $51.19 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) loss of which would signal deeper correction.

Support: 52.09. 51.76. 51.19. 50.41
Resistance: 52.83. 53.18. 53.37. 53.74

DJIA

Dow was dragged lower on Tuesday as call for general election in UK added to the list of uncertainties for investors which were heated by growing tensions from North Korea, through Middle East to France.

Dow was down 0.6% on Tuesday, on bearish acceleration after Monday's recovery was capped by 20/55AMA bear-cross. This has added on already weak technical outlook and increased risk of renewed probe below key daily Ichimoku cloud base support at 20385, which so far managed to contain two attacks. Firm break below cloud base would be seen as strong signal for fresh extension of pullback from all-time high at 21160 (posted on Mar 1) for test of 20266 (Fibonacci 61.8% of 19713/21160 ascend).

Daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen lines in firm bearish a=setup are supportive for further weakness.

Support: 20385. 20266. 20126. 20068
Resistance: 20481. 20580. 20600. 20692

FTSE100

FTSE100 index was among the top losers on Tuesday, as the index was pushed strongly down on UK election decision and sharply higher pound, on the first working day after extended Easter holiday break. FTSE lost nearly 3% on Tuesday's strong bearish acceleration from day's high at 7285 to the lowest of the day at 7056.

Sharp fall that surged through strong support, shaped in rising daily Ichimoku cloud (7253/7184) has weakened daily technical studies which gained strong bearish momentum for further downside, as the price is eyeing key med-term support at 7024 (Feb 2 trough) for full retracement of 7024/7444 rally.

Also completion of asymmetric Head & Shoulders pattern on daily chart adds on strong bearish pressure.

Support: 7056. 7024. 7000. 6954
Resistance: 7100.7125. 7192. 7235

DAX

DAX was firmly in red on Tuesday, following general negative trend for stocks and losing 1.4% for the day. Extension of pullback from record high at 12410 (posted on Apr 03) extended below psychological 12000 support and retracing over 76.4% of 11878/12410 upleg.

Tuesday's long red daily candle weighs on market as daily technical studies are losing traction. Near-term risk is turned lower, as index is eyeing key short-term support at 11878 (Mar 22 low) for full retracement of 11878/12410 bull-leg, loss of which would trigger further easing. Tuesday's fall found temporary footstep at daily 55SMA, with limited upside attempts expected ahead of final push towards 11878 target.

Support: 12000. 11960. 11878. 11718
Resistance: 12081. 12162. 12220. 12267

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8272; (P) 0.8392; (R1) 0.8473; More...

EUR/GBP drops to as low as 0.8312 so far and intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.8303 low. Current fall is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9034. Break of 0.8303 will target 0.8116.20 key cluster support. We'd expect strong support there to completion the correction and bring rebound. But for now, break of 0.8511 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Such decline is likely ready to resume and should make a new low below 0.8303. At this point, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) will resume at a later stage to 0.9799 (2008 high). However, sustained break of 0.8116 could bring deeper decline to next key support level at 0.7564 before the correction completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4061; (P) 1.4134; (R1) 1.4263; More...

EUR/AUD's strong rise and break of 1.4215 resistance suggests that whole rebound from 1.3624 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside fort 1.4039 resistance first. Break will target 1.4721 key resistance next. As noted before, we're favoring the case that larger fall from 1.6587 is completed at 1.3624, after defending 1.3671 key support. And the trend is reversing. Decisive break of 1.4721 should confirm our view. On the downside, however, break of 1.3980 support will dampen this view and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3624 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction could be completed after testing 1.3671 key support. Break of 1.4721 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.4756) should confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5455 and above. Overall, we'd expect the up trend from 1.1602 to resume later. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn extend the fall from 1.6587 towards 1.1602 long term bottom.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0678; (P) 1.0685; (R1) 1.0694; More...

EUR/CHF is staying in consolidative trading below 1.0699 minor resistance and intraday bias remains neutral first. With 1.0699 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is still expected. Below 1.0652 will target 1.0620/0629 support zone. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of whole fall from 1.1198. In that case, EUR/CHF should target next long term fibonacci level at 1.0485. On the upside, break of 1.0699 minor resistance will argue that choppy fall from 1.0823 has completed and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Current development suggests that it's not completed yet. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. In any case, break of 1.0823 resistance is needed to be the first indication of reversal. Otherwise, deeper fall is still expected even in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.91; (P) 116.19; (R1) 116.64; More...

EUR/JPY's recovery from 114.84 low is still in progress. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. At this point, we'd still expect upside to be limited by 118.23 resistance and bring another fall. Corrective rise from 109.20 should have completed at 124.08. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 114.88 will pave the way to retest 109.20 low.

In the bigger picture, medium term corrective rise from 109.20 should have completed at 124.08, ahead of 126.09 support turned resistance. Medium term down trend from 149.76 is likely resuming. Break of 109.20 will target 94.11 low. In any case, break of 126.09 is needed needed to confirm medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of another rebound.