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Highlights:

• U.S. Q1 GDP growth revised up to 1.2% from 0.7% in the advance estimate
• Consumer spending growth remained modest but was revised up slightly to 0.6% from 0.3% previously
• An already-strong business investment gain was revised up to 11.4%, marking the strongest quarterly increase in five years.
• Slower inventory investment was a slightly larger drag than previously reported

Our Take:

It is still the case that GDP growth moderated in Q1, but slightly less than previously reported and with the composition still arguing that the slowdown was more a result of quarterly volatility than a fundamental deterioration in the economic backdrop. It remains the case that slower Q1 growth largely reflected a pullback in the volatile inventory component (now slightly larger than first reported) and a sharp slowing in consumer spending growth (+0.6% now versus +0.3% in the advance estimate) that both look unlikely to be repeated. On balance, data to-date, remains consistent with our expectation that overall GDP growth bounced back to a solid 2.9% rate in Q2 and, combined with further tightening in labour markets, is consistent with our expectation that the Fed will hike the fed funds target range by another 25 basis points in June.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.54; (P) 111.74; (R1) 112.02; More...

USD/JPY was rejected from 4 hour 55 EMA but it's staying above 110.85 minor support for the moment. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Rise from 110.23 is seen as a correction and the larger fall is expected to resume later. On the downside, below 110.85 minor support will turn bias to the downside to extend the fall from 114.36 to 108.12 low. Break there will resume the whole decline from 118.65. In that case, we'll look for bottoming signal again at 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It's uncertain whether it's completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9707; (P) 0.9722; (R1) 0.9745; More.....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as it's staying in consolidation from 0.9691. In case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited by 0.9858 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Whole decline from 1.0342 is still in progress and below 0.9691 will target 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9860 from 1.0099 at 0.9617. We'll start to look for reversal signal below there.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is bounded in medium term range of 0.9443/1.0342 for the moment. Consolidative trading would likely continue and medium term outlook remains neutral. Break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the pair. Meanwhile, downside attempts should be contained by 0.9443 key support level.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1185; (P) 1.1218 (R1) 1.1242; More....

EUR/USD dips again today but it's so far seen as staying in consolidation pattern from 1.1267. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. We'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 1.1245/98 (138.2% projection of 1.0339 to 1.0828 from 1.0569 at 1.1245) resistance zone to limit upside and bring reversal. But decisive break of 1.1298 will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.1615 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 1.1020 resistance turned support will indicate rejection from 1.1245/98 and turn bias to the downside for 1.0838 support first.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD now far above 55 week EMA. Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2934; (P) 1.2967; (R1) 1.3007; More...

GBP/USD's fall from 1.3047 accelerates to as low as 1.2809 and broke 1.2844 support. The development, and the break of near term channel support, suggest reversal in the pair. That is, the rise from 1.2108 could be finished at 1.3047 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.2614 resistance turned support. Also, noted again that we are still viewing price actions from 1.1946 as a corrective move. Break of 1.2614 will indicate that such correction is finished too and the larger downtrend is is resuming for new low below 1.1946. This will be the mildly preferred case now as long as 1.3047 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There are signs of reversal, like breaking of 55 week EMA, weekly MACD turned positive, and monthly MACD crossed above signal line. But still, break of 1.3444 resistance is need to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remains bearish for extend the down trend through 1.1946 low.

The free fall in the Pound is seen as a result of heightened uncertainty over the election in June. Latest YouGov poll published late on Thursday showed that 43% voters plan to vote for Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservative Party. That compares to the support for Labour Party at 38%. That is, just a mere 5% lead. Back in April when May announced the snap election, it's believed that the Conservative would have a landslide victory due to the over 20 point lead. A less than strong victory will weaken May's stance in Brexit negotiation with EU.

Trump agrees that Brexit is an incident, not a trend

European Council president Donald Tusk said that he has convinced US President Donald Trump that Brexit is a very important and dramatic "incident" but "not a trend". And hailed that as a "very positive momentum in our discussion. European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said regarding conversion on Brexit with Trump that "this in our eyes is a real tragedy, that it is not in the interest of either of the British nor the continental and Irish Europeans." Meanwhile, it's reported, quoting unnamed source, that Trump has expressed his concerns to EU leaders that Americans may lose job due to Brexit.

Dollar mixed after mixed data

Dollar trades mixed in early US session after mixed economic data. Q1 GDP growth was revised up to 1.2% annualized, beating expectation of 0.9% and was much better than first estimate of 0.7%. GDP price index was revised lower to 2.2%. Headline durable goods orders dropped -0.7% in April, better than expectation of -1.5%. However, ex-transport orders dropped -0.4%, much worse than consensus of 0.4%.

Technically, EUR/USD dips mildly and is set to extend the consolidation from 1.1267 with another fall. We'll stay cautious on rejection from 1.1298 key resistance but there is no firm sign of near term reversal yet. GBP/USD, however, breaks through 1.2844 near term support today, on broad based weakness in Sterling. This is seen as a sign of near term trend reversal.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY recovers mildly ahead of 110.85 support but stays vulnerable to another fall. AUD/USD also recovery mildly ahead of 0.7405 resistance. USD/CAD continues to gyrate in tight range above 1.3387. The direction in the greenback is not clear.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2934; (P) 1.2967; (R1) 1.3007; More...

GBP/USD's fall from 1.3047 accelerates to as low as 1.2809 and broke 1.2844 support. The development, and the break of near term channel support, suggest reversal in the pair. That is, the rise from 1.2108 could be finished at 1.3047 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.2614 resistance turned support. Also, noted again that we are still viewing price actions from 1.1946 as a corrective move. Break of 1.2614 will indicate that such correction is finished too and the larger downtrend is is resuming for new low below 1.1946. This will be the mildly preferred case now as long as 1.3047 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There are signs of reversal, like breaking of 55 week EMA, weekly MACD turned positive, and monthly MACD crossed above signal line. But still, break of 1.3444 resistance is need to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remains bearish for extend the down trend through 1.1946 low.

Economic Indicators Update

EUR/GBP - 0.8725

 
Recent wave: Major double three (A)-(B)-(C)-(X)-(A)-(B)-(C) is unfolding and 2nd (A) has possibly ended at 0.6936.

Trend: Near term up

Original strategy  :

Buy at 0.8575, Target: 0.8675, Stop: 0.8535

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 0.8620, Target: 0.8750, Stop: 0.8580

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

 
As the single currency has surged again after brief pullback, adding credence to our bullish view that the rise from 0.8312 low is still in progress and above resistance at 0.8735 would encourage for further gain to 0.8765-70 but near term overbought condition should limit upside today and price should falter below resistance at 0.8788, risk from there is seen for a retreat later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy euro again on pullback as 0.8615-20 should limit downside. A firm break below support at 0.8603 would abort and suggest a temporary top is formed instead, risk correction to 0.8575-80 and possibly towards 0.8550 but support at 0.8524 should remain intact.

Our preferred count is that, after forming a major top at 0.9805 (wave V), (A)-(B)-(C) correction is unfolding with (A) leg ended at 0.8400 (A: 0.8637, B: 0.9491 and 5-waver C ended at 0.8400. Wave (B) has ended at 0.9413 and impulsive wave (C) has either ended at 0.8067 or may extend one more fall to 0.8000 before prospect of another rally. Current breach of indicated resistance at 0.9043 confirms our view that the (C) leg has ended and bring stronger rebound towards 0.9150/54, then towards 0.9240/50.

USD/CAD - 1.3454

 
Recent wave: Only wave v of c has ended at 0.9407 and wave C of major A-B-C correction is underway for headway to 1.4700

Trend:  Near term up

 
Original strategy       :

Sell at 1.3540, Target: 1.3340, Stop: 1.3600

Position: -

Target:  -

Stop: -

 
New strategy             :

Sell at 1.3540, Target: 1.3340, Stop: 1.3600

Position: -

Target:  -

Stop:-

As the greenback has rebounded after falling to 1.3387, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and corrective bounce to 1.3500 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon upside would be limited to resistance at 1.3540 and bring another decline, below said support at 1.3387 would extend the fall from 1.3794 top for further weakness to 1.3350, then towards 1.3300 but loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.3250-60, risk from there has increased for a rebound to take place later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and we are looking to sell on recovery as 1.3540 resistance should limit upside, bring another decline. Above 1.3571-79 (previous support and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3770-1.3387) would defer and suggest a temporary low is formed instead, risk a stronger rebound to 1.3600 but still reckon resistance at 1.3670 would remain intact.

To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.

USD/CHF - 0.9705

Original strategy :

Bought at 0.9700, Target: 0.9800, Stop: 0.9700

Position : - Long at 0.9700

Target :  - 0.9800

Stop : - 0.9700

New strategy  :

Hold long entered at 0.9700, Target: 0.9800, Stop: 0.9690

Position : - Long at 0.9700

Target :  - 0.9800

Stop : - 0.9690

The greenback met resistance at 0.9777 and has retreated, suggesting caution on our long position entered at 0.9700 but as long as support at 0.9692 holds, further consolidation would be seen with mild upside bias for another rebound, above said resistance at 0.9777 would add credence to our view that temporary low is formed, bring retracement of recent decline to 0.9800, then 0.9819-25 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0025-0.9692 and previous resistance) but price should falter below resistance at 0.9851 (also just below 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.9858), bring another decline later.

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 0.9700. Below said support at 0.9692 would signal recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 0.9670-75 but reckon downside would be limited to 0.9650 and 0.9620-25 should hold, bring another rebound later. 

GBP/USD - 1.2845

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.2910, Target: 1.2810, Stop: 1.2945

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Sterling ran into heavy selling pressure at 1.3015 yesterday and has dropped sharply, price just broke below 1.2866 support earlier today, suggesting top has indeed been formed at 1.3048 earlier and downside bias is seen for this the erratic decline from there to extend weakness to previous support at 1.2831, then 1.2805 however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.2780-85 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2515-1.3048) and reckon previous support at 1.2757 would hold from here.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell cable on recovery as previous support at 1.2926 should turn into resistance and cap upside. Above this level would defer and suggest an intra-day low is formed instead, bring a stronger rebound to 1.2950 but upside should be limited to 1.2990-00.