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Sunrise Market Commentary

• Rates: Can overbought conditions halt the core bond rally?
  Today's eco calendar is empty apart from final EMU inflation data which we don't expect to influence trading. Sentiment remains positive for core bonds, but both the Bund and the US Note future are in overbought conditions, suggesting some consolidation around current levels instead of continuation of the rally.
• Currencies: Sterling jumps sharply higher as PM May calls early elections
  Yesterday, USD softness persisted as US yields declined further. EUR/USD regained the 1.07 barrier. Today, the calendar is thin so there is probably no trigger to change the dollar's fortunes. Sterling jumped sharply higher as PM May announced early elections. Markets apparently expect the election outcome to provide more stability for the Brexit negotiations

The Sunrise Headlines

• US equities equity markets closed up to 0.3% lower with the Dow Jones underperforming (-0.5%). Overnight, most Asian stock markets lose ground as well with China underperforming (-1%).
• The German government believes an interest rate increase by the ECB would help to reduce Germany's often-criticised export surplus, the Funke Mediengruppe newspaper chain reported.
• Another Federal Reserve policymaker backed an emerging US central bank plan to begin trimming its bond holdings later this year, as Kansas City Fed George warned against waiting too long in order to "overheat" labour markets.
• US President Trump signed a new 'Buy American, Hire American' executive order aimed at cracking down on skilled worker visa abuse and forcing US government agencies to buy more domestically produced products.
• Primary dealers have been asked to respond to questions on the potential demand, pricing and other factors for 40-, 50-, or 100-year bonds, as part of the US Treasury's latest quarterly survey.
• The IMF raised its 2017 global growth forecast from 3.4% to 3.5% due to manufacturing and trade gains in Europe, Japan and China, but warned that protectionist policies threaten to choke a broad-based recovery.
• Today's eco calendar remains thin with only final EMU inflation data. ECB members Coeure, Praet, Hansson and Fed governor Rosengren are scheduled to speak. The Fed releases its Beige Book and Germany taps the market.

Currencies: Sterling Jumps Sharply Higher As PM May Calls Early Elections

Decline US yields continues to weigh on dollar

On Tuesday, global equity softness was again more negative for the dollar than for the euro. The US eco data were mixed with no impact on USD trading. Later in the session, the dollar came under further pressure as the decline in core/US bond yields accelerated. USD/JPY failed to sustain north of 109 and closed the session at 108.43, but Monday's correction low (108.13) was left intact. The dollar also lost ground against the euro. EUR/USD rebounded north of 1.07 and closed the session at 1.0730. Are investors reducing euro shorts ahead of the French presidential election?

Overnight, most Asian equities are trading with modest losses. The yen remains strong with USD/JPY holding in the mid 108 area. The Japanese 10-yield remains around 0.0%, away from the 0.1% BOJ target, but that is no negative for the yen. EUR/USD maintains yesterday's gains, holding in the 1.0720/25 area. So, by default dollar softness remains the name of the game. The Aussie dollar is ceding further ground against a declining USD. Overall negative sentiment on risk, a further decline in the Iron ore price and a soft performance of Chinese equities all weigh on the Aussie dollar. AUD/USD is trading in the 0.7525 area.

Today, the market calendar remains thin. There are no important eco data in the US. In the euro area, the final March CPI and the February trade balance are no market movers. Or is there risk for an upward revision for the CPI?. Earnings reports include Morgan Stanley and Blackrock. Wild cards are the appearances of ECB Coeuré, Praet and Boston Fed Rosengren. The former two are well behind Draghi's policy. Rosengren favoured 4 rate hikes in 2007. We will closely listen whether he backtracks on that rather aggressive stance. The Fed's Beige book is a bit more interesting than usual as the divide between the survey data and the hard data has rarely been wider.

Yesterday, by default dollar softness still dominated FX trading. The move was reinforced by a further decline in US bond yields. Contrary to what was the case of late, USD weakness was mainly visible in USD/EUR and less in USD/JPY. We look out whether this pattern continues. We don't see much room for a sustained EUR/USD rebound. Even so, dollar softness combined with some profit taking on euro shorts a head of the French elections might cause a (temporary ?) bid for the euro.

For the overall USD performance we continue to keep a close eye on the US bond markets. We maintain the view that the correction on the US bond markets has gone far enough. However for now there is no trigger for U-turn. So, it is still too early to position for a rebound of the dollar.

From a technical point of view, USD/JPY broke through the 110 key support, after having failed to regain the 111.36/60 previous range bottom. We downgraded our USD/JPY assessment to bearish, as long as the pair doesn't regain 112.20 (neckline ST double bottom). Next key support (62% retracement) comes in at 107.18. EUR/USD extensively tested the topside of the MT range (1.0874/1.0906 area) late March, but the test was rejected. EUR/USD returned lower in the 1.0875/1.05. The move did meet support in the 1.06 area as the dollar traded weakish of late. The picture is turning more neutral as the pair returns to the middle of the ST range. We slightly prefer to sell EUR/USD on upticks in case of a return higher in the range as we see room for a broader USD comeback.

EUR/USD: rebounds in the range. USD softness prevails, but a modest euro short-squeeze is probably also in play

EUR/GBP

Sterling propelled as PM calls early elections

Yesterday sterling briefly fell-off a cliff on headlines that UK PM May would make a statement. Rumours on early elections were confirmed as the UK PM called a vote for June 8. Initial sterling weakness was reversed and the UK currency started an impressive rebound. The UK government is largely expected to get a much bigger majority. Markets consider it as a sources of stability. It might give room of manoeuvre in the Brexit negotiations. The jury is still out whether the new political context will really lead to a more balanced Brexit outcome. Anyway, it was used to further reduce sterling shorts. EUR/GBP tumbled more than one big figure (even as the euro traded fairly strong). The pair closed the session at 0.8356. The gain in cable was even more spectacular. The pair closed the session at 1.2824 area, a level not seen since October last year.

Today, there are again no eco data in the UK. PM May will formally ask the House of Commons to support her call for early elections on June 8. The call is expected to get the green light as opposition parties support the call. The day-to-day momentum of sterling is obviously strong. In a longer term perspective, the sterling rally is probably a bit overdone. However, at this stage there is no reason to row against the strong sterling tide.

We had a neutral short-term bias on EUR/GBP. Yesterday sterling dropped below the bottom of the EUR/GBP 0.88/0.84 range. The pair came with reach of the 0.8305 support (Dec low). We look whether this level holds. A break below would be highly significant from a technical point of view. Longer term, Brexitcomplications remain a potential negative for sterling. However, this is not the focus of sterling trading at this stage.

EUR/GBP: nearing the key 0.83 support as PM May calls for early elections

Download entire Sunrise Market Commentary

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.92; (P) 138.46; (R1) 140.80; More...

GBP/JPY rises to as high as 140.01 so far, just inch below 140.08 near term resistance. Current developments argues that consolidation pattern from 148.42 is possibly completed at 135.58, just ahead of 135.39 fibonacci level. Intraday bias stays on the upside and break of 140.08 will affirm this case. GBP/JPY should then target a test on 148.42 key resistance level. Meanwhile, this bullish case will be favored as long as 137.33 minor support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. As long as 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 holds, another rising leg would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42 and possibly above. However, firm break of 135.39 will bring retest of 122.36, with prospect of resuming the larger down trend from 195.86.

Markets are generally trading in risk averse mode after UK Prime Minister Theresa May's surprised call for snap election. That also adds to the backdrop of geopolitical tensions in North Korea and Syria. DJIA closed down -113.64 pts or -0.55% at 20523.28. S&P 500 lost -6.82pts or -0.29% to close at 2342.19. Nonetheless, both indices are still trying to draw support from 55 day EMA. In Asian session, China leads other Asian markets lower as SSE composite index drops -40 pts or -1.23% at the time of writing. Hong Kong HSI is losing -150 pts or -0.63%. Nikkei, however, recovers and is trading up 0.2% at the time of writing.

Bond yield plunges on safe haven flows

Biggest movements were actually seen in bond markets on safe haven flow. US 30 year yield dropped -0.071 to close at 2.842. US 10 yield also lost -0.073 to close at 2.179. 10 year yield's correction from 2.615 is still on course to 2.13 fibonacci level. In addition to risk aversion, markets are also paring bets on a June Fed rate hike. Fed fund futures is now pricing in only 44.7% chance of that, comparing to over 60% chance last month. Japan 10 year bond yield also briefly touches zero percent today, first time since last November. In the currency markets, Sterling remains the strongest one as boosted by the snap election news. Strength in the British Pound lifted Euro and Swiss Franc higher. Aussie and Loonie are trading as the weakest ones.

UK PM May seeks snap election

UK PM Theresa May announced yesterday that she would seek MPs' support for an early general election to be held on June 8. The news came in less than a month after her affirmation that "the next election will be in 2020". The rationale behind such move is to consolidate her power after Brexit was formally triggered in late March. A landslide victory of the Conservative Party would strengthen May's mandate in the 2-year Brexit negotiations.

Pound reactions indicates market confidence

The strong rally of the sterling suggested that the market was confident that the election would serve its purpose. Indeed, latest opinion polls showed that 44% of the British people support Conservatives, compared with Labor's 23%. Support for LibDem stayed at low teen. Meanwhile, 50% of interviewees indicated that May would make the best PM Minister, compared with 14% for Labor's Jeremy Corbyn.

It is usually positive for a country's currency if the ruling party retains power in an election, as it means lower uncertainty. Sterling's volatility would remain elevated from now until the election. Yet, short-term rebound does not alter the currency's long-term bearishness should the tough Brexit negotiations eventually return to the spotlight.

More in UK Prime Minister Theresa May Changes Stance and Calls for Snap Election

EC Tusk: "It was Hitchcock, who directed Brexit"

In response to the news, European Council President Donald Tusk's spokesman said that "the UK elections do not change our EU27 plans." And, "we expect to have the Brexit guidelines adopted by the European Council on 29 April and following that the Brexit negotiating directives ready on 22 May. This will allow the EU27 to start negotiations." Tusk tweeted with his own account that he had a "good" conversation with May after the announcement. But his also tweeted that "it was Hitchcock, who directed Brexit: first an earthquake and the tension rises."

Kansas City Fed George: Don't over interpret soft Q1

Kansas City Fed President Esther George said yesterday that "the economy has these fits and starts and we've seen this over the last five years." And, while first quarter "looks soft" Fed shouldn't "over-interpret" the data. "For the year as a whole, I still see consumer spending in a way that should carry the economy forward." Meanwhile, George also said that "balance sheet adjustments will need to be gradual and smooth, which is an approach that carries the least risk in terms of a strategy to normalize its size." And, "importantly, once the process begins, it should continue without reconsideration at each subsequent FOMC meeting. In other words, the process should be on autopilot and not necessarily vary with moderate movements in the economic data."

On the data front

Australia Westpac leading index rose 0.1% mom in March. Eurozone trade balance and CPI will be the main feature in European session. Fed will release Beige Book report later in the day.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.92; (P) 138.46; (R1) 140.80; More...

GBP/JPY rises to as high as 140.01 so far, just inch below 140.08 near term resistance. Current developments argues that consolidation pattern from 148.42 is possibly completed at 135.58, just ahead of 135.39 fibonacci level. Intraday bias stays on the upside and break of 140.08 will affirm this case. GBP/JPY should then target a test on 148.42 key resistance level. Meanwhile, this bullish case will be favored as long as 137.33 minor support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. As long as 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 holds, another rising leg would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42 and possibly above. However, firm break of 135.39 will bring retest of 122.36, with prospect of resuming the larger down trend from 195.86.

Economic Indicators Update

US Session Highlights

(US) MAR HOUSING STARTS: 1.22M V 1.25ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.26M V 1.25ME

(CA) CANADA MAR EXISTING HOME SALES M/M: 1.1% V 5.2% PRIOR

(US) MAR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.5% V 0.4%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 76.1% V 76.1%E

IMF raises FY17 global growth forecast to 3.5% from 3.4% prior

US equities started the morning lower, weighed down by weakness in European bourses and disappointing earnings from Goldman Sachs and J&J. Markets pared losses as the session wore on but ended in the red. The EUR/USD hit fresh 2-week highs and Dollar index dropped 0.7% after UK Prime Min May's call for snap elections, and U.S. Treasuries moved higher as the 10-yr yield lost 6bps. Oil dropped in a choppy trading day, and WTI crude settled down 0.5%. Consumer staples were solidly in the green on the day, boosted by new all-time highs in PepsiCo and Dr Pepper Snapple, while health care and financials were the market laggards.

US markets on close: Dow -0.6%, S&P500 -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.1%

Best Sector in S&P500: Consumer Staples

Worst Sector in S&P500: Health Care

Biggest gainers: AN +3%; IP +1.9%; IRM, +1.8%

Biggest losers: CAH -11.5%; GWW -11.4%; ABC -4.7%

At the close: VIX 14.4 (-0.2pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 1.16% (-4bps), 10-yr 2.17% (-8bps), 30-yr 2.84% (-7bps)

US movers afterhours

NVLS To merge with Alpine Immune Sciences in all-stock deal valuing NVLS at approx $50M; +29.6% afterhours

RARE Ultragenyx, Kyowa Hakko Kirin and Kyowa Kirin International announce positive 24-week data from Adult Phase 3 Study of Burosumab (KRN23) in X-Linked Hypophosphatemia; +22.9% afterhours

ISRG Reports Q1 $5.09 v $4.90e, R$674.2M v $661Me; +4.3% afterhours

LRCX Reports Q3 $2.80 v $2.54e, R$2.15B v $2.13Be; Guides Q4 $2.88-3.12 v $2.63e; R$2.2-2.4B v $2.18Be; +3.6% afterhours

IBM Reports Q1 $2.38 v $2.34e, R$18.2B v $18.5Be; Affirms FY17 at least $13.80 v $13.80e; -3.8% afterhours

DSX Announces $70M offering of common shares (16% of market cap); CEO, other executives and directors agree to buy $20M in the public offering; -9.8% afterhours

Key economic data

(NZ) NEW ZEALAND MAR PERFORMANCE SERVICES INDEX: 59.0 V 58.7 PRIOR

(AU) AUSTRALIA MAR WESTPAC LEADING INDEX M/M: +0.1% V -0.1% PRIOR

(AU) AUSTRALIA MAR NEW MOTOR VEHICLE SALES M/M: 1.9% V -2.7% PRIOR; Y/Y: -3.0% V -4.0%PRIOR

Asia Session Notable Observations, Speakers and Press

Risk appetite waning in the wake of soft US housing data and a bombshell out of the UK about snap elections. Asia indices tracking lower close on Wall St, where Financials, Energy and Health Care were the worst performs while lower-beta Utilities/Telecom/Staples gained. US Treasuries were also bid higher, with 10-yr yield extending its slide below 2.20%. May WTI contract declined about $0.30 on lower draw in API petroleum inventories.

China:

(CN) China said to have eased its yuan outflow controls last week - Chinese press

(CN) China premier Li: China and EU should send signals of globalization and free trade - press citing comments from meeting with EU's Mogherini

Japan:

(JP) Japan deputy chief cabinet Sec Hagiuda: To closely monitor UK election and Brexit developments - press

(JP) Incoming members on the BOJ board to bolster the camp of proponents for quantitative easing - Nikkei

Australia:

(AU) Australia Trade Min Ciobo: Have seen a strengthening in Japan/Australia relations

Korea:

(KR) South Korea Fin Min Yoo: Facing risks including North Korea and trade; Q1 GDP may exceed forecasts

Asian Equity Indices/Futures (23:30ET)

Nikkei flat, Hang Seng -0.7%, Shanghai Composite -1.0%, ASX200 -0.7%, Kospi -0.5%

Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.1%; Nasdaq +0.1%, Dax flat, FTSE100 -0.2%

FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (23:30ET)

EUR 1.0715-1.0735; JPY 108.38-68; AUD 0.7524-0.7563; NZD 0.7034-0.7052

June Gold -0.4% at 1,289/oz; May Crude Oil -0.2% at $52.31/brl; May Copper +0.9% at $2.55/lb

iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,178 tonnes from 10,208 tonnes prior

(US) Weekly API Oil Inventories: Crude: -0.8M v -1.3M prior; 3rd straight draw

(CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.8664 V 6.8849 PRIOR; strongest setting since Apr 13th, first firmer setting in 4 days

(AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$800M in 2.75% 2027 Bonds; avg yield: 2.5146%; bid-to-cover: 3.24x

Asia equities / Notables

Australia

Oil Search (OSH) -2.8%; (Q1 output)

Brambles (BXB) +4.3% (9-month Rev)

Newcrest (NCM) -1.4% (Cadia mine closed; Cut at Morgans)

Hong Kong

Geely (175) +2.8% (raised at Daiwa)

Top Spring International (3688) -1.5% (contracted sales)

Japan

Toshiba (6502) +1.6% (chip unit bid report from ICJ)

Hakuhodo DY Holdings (2433) +1.3% (FY result speculation)

Mitsubishi Electric (6503) +3.0% (China sales expansion)

Market movers today

A relatively quiet day ahead in terms of data releases with the final reading of eurozone March HICP inflation due; the first release revealed a marked drop in headline CPI to 1.5% y/y (from 2.0% in February) and core inflation dropped to 0.7% (from 0.9%), a trend we think will be cemented in the months ahead, due partly to base effects of past energy price rises fading and due partly to subdued core inflation.

The ECB's Coeure and Praet are both due to speak in New York and markets will stay alert to comments regarding how tolerant the ECB will be in seeing lower inflation prints ahead and to comment son whet her or not ‘exit easing' discussions are ongoing at the Governing Council.

In the US, the Fed's Rosengren is speaking and the Beige Book is released, which will be scrut inised for hints of whether the Fed sees a slowing US economy, as we have highlighted as a key risk following the fading Trump growth euphoria.

No Scandi events scheduled for today. For more on Scandi markets, see page 2.

Selected market news

Political risks continue to be in charge of markets after Prime Minister Theresa May yesterday called for an early UK general election, and as the first round of the French presidential election is coming up, this Sunday looks increasingly open.

While the UK Prime Minister still needs backing from the House of Commons to send voters to the polls on 8 June, she is likely to get t his in t oday's session. See Brexit Monitor No. 28: Snap election increases number of uncertainty factors, 18 April 2017. Based on the most recent opinion polls, the Conservatives maintain a clear lead over Labour and due to the UK's 'first past the post ' system, this means that the Tories are likely to increase their majority lead in the Commons. This could leave the May government with a stronger mandate to negotiate Brexit. Crucially, the election call opens up the sample space for Brexit outcomes wi th markets notably eyeing a chance that Brexit may be softened, and, as a result , sterling cheered yesterday. EUR/GBP is trading around the 0.8350 mark this morning.

The upcoming French election is also adding to political risks in Europe near term with left-wing Mélenchon having seen a marked rise in the polls, suggesting he could win against Fillon or Le Pen should he manage to make it to the second round (st ill not the most likely outcome though). A potential run-off between the two EU-sceptics Mélenchon and Le Pen seems to be the biggest risk-scenario in the market at the moment. See French Election Monitor No. 2: Mélenchon could enter second election round in May for details.

Uncertainty has indeed grabbed hold of markets in recent days. Equity markets posted losses predominantly in the US and Asian sessions, dragged down by disappointing earnings and the souring risk sentiment more broadly. Oil prices have come under pressure in recent days on rising global growth concerns, while gold is moving higher still on geopolitical tensions. The safety of government bonds is back in demand with notably the Japanese 10Y benchmark yield falling below zero overnight .

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.44% against the USD and closed at 0.7553.

LME Copper prices declined 0.6% or $34.5/MT to $5620.5/MT. Aluminium prices rose 1.4% or $25.5/MT to $1915.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7529, with the AUD trading 0.32% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

Overnight data showed that Australia's Westpac leading index rebounded 0.08% in March. The index had recorded a drop of 0.07% in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7511, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7492. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7557, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7584.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.83% against the USD and closed at 1.0729.

The greenback lost ground against most of its key counterparts, following disappointing housing starts and manufacturing production data in the US that supported the notion that the US economy lost momentum in the first quarter of 2017.

Data indicated that housing starts in the US dropped 6.8% on a monthly basis, to an annual rate of 1215.0K in March. Markets expected housing starts to fall to a level of 1250.0K, following a revised level of 1303.0K in the prior month. Additionally, the nation's manufacturing production registered an unexpected drop of 0.4% in March, dropping for the first time in seven months as auto production dropped sharply. In the previous month, manufacturing production had climbed by a revised 0.3%, while markets were expecting for a flat reading.

On the other hand, the US industrial production rose 0.5% in March, in line with market expectations, driven by a record rebound in utility output. In the prior month, industrial production had recorded a revised rise of 0.1%. Moreover, the nation's building permits climbed more-than-anticipated by 3.6% MoM, to an annual rate of 1260.0K in March, against market expectations for a rise to a level of 1250.0K and after recording a revised reading of 1216.0K in the prior month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.0720, with the EUR trading 0.08% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0661, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0603. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0757, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0795.

Moving ahead, investors will focus on the Euro-zone's final consumer price index for March and trade balance data for February, slated to release in a few hours. Additionally, in the US, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Beige Book report and MBA mortgage applications data, will attract a lot of market attention.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 2.27% against the USD and closed at 1.2842, following Britain Prime Minister, Theresa May’s snap election announcement.

In a surprise move, the British Prime Minister called for an early parliamentary election in order to strengthen her hand in divorce talks with the European Union.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2821, with the GBP trading 0.16% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2588, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2355. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2979, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3137.

In absence of any economic releases in the UK, investors will focus on a speech by the Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Mark Carney, slated tomorrow.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.55% against the JPY and closed at 108.43.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 108.48, with the USD trading marginally higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 108.13, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.78. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.99, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.50.

Moving ahead, traders would concentrate on Japan’s adjusted merchandise trade balance for March, due to release overnight.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.81% against the CHF and closed at 0.9961.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9971, with the USD trading 0.1% higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9936, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9901. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0024, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0077.

Amid a lack of economic releases in Switzerland today, trading trend in the CHF is expected to be determined by global macroeconomic factors.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.