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Gold Starting a new leg lower.

Gold is getting stronger. The momentum seems back to bullish despite some consolidation. Strong resistance is located at 1263 (27/02/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 1224.10 (16/03/2017 low). Expected to show further strengthening.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

Silver Consolidating Above $18.

Silver has increased above 18.00. Resistance given at 17.56 has been broken. Hourly support is given at 16.82 (15/03/2017 low).

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

Crude oil Back above $50.

Crude oil's bearish pressures seems to fade. The commodity had been located in a bearish trend since the commodity had been unable to mount a serious challenge to resistance at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 47.09 (016/03/2017 low).

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 24.82 (13/11/2002) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

EUR/CHF Trading sideways.

EUR/CHF's is moving up and down. The medium-term pattern suggests us to see continued bearish pressures towards key support that can be found at 1.0623 (24/06/2016 low). For now the support given at 1.0684 (06/03/20117 low) seems to be strong.

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/JPY Continued weakness.

EUR/JPY rejection at 122.88 has triggered a correction. The pair is also very volatile. Hourly support at 119.33 (23/03/2017 low) has been broken. Resistance stands at 122.88 (13/03/0217 high). Expected to show continued weakness.

In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support at 94.12 (24/07/2012 low) looks nonetheless far away.

EUR/GBP Lack of follow-through.

EUR/GBP's bullish flag finally ended up as a false flag. Strong resistance is given at 0.8787 (13/03/2017 high). Key resistance is given at 0.8854 (15/01/2017 high). Hourly support at 0.8605 (23/03/2017 low) has been broken. Expected to show continued weakness.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

EUR/USD remains under pressure in the Friday session. Currently, the pair is trading slightly below the 1.07 level. On the release front, eurozone numbers were mixed. German data was sharp, as Retail Sales jumped 1.8%, well above the estimate of 0.7%. As well, unemployment claims dropped by 30 thousand, compared to the estimate of 10 thousand. However, eurozone inflation data was not as strong, as CPI Flash Estimate dropped to 1.5%, short of the forecast of 1.8%. In the US, today's highlight is UoM Consumer Sentiment, which is expected to improve to 97.8 points.

It's been an eventful week for the euro, which has shown strong movement in both directions. The currency jumped above the 1.09 level on Monday, its highest level since November 2016. However, it's been all downhill since then, as the euro struggles to stay above the 1.07 line. The German economy, the largest in Europe, is looking sharp and has enjoyed a robust first quarter in 2017. Stronger global trade has led to increased demand for German exports, notably cars and machinery. Germany's GDP expanded 1.6% in 2016, its highest rate since 2012. The generally positive picture in Germany has boosted the eurozone economy and if the strong numbers continue, the ECB will be under more pressure to tighten monetary policy.

It's been a rocky start for the Trump administration, which has been beset by controversy and crises since Donald Trump assumed office in January. Trump has yet to provide any details of an economic policy, to the consternation of the markets. Last week, Trump's proposed healthcare bill was dead on arrival before even being voted on, a humiliating defeat for the president. This setback has made the markets even more jittery about Trump, and the inquiry into the Trump administration's links with Russia is gathering steam, which is another cause for concern for nervous investors. Trump has said he will now focus on tax reform, but the White House will need to improve coordination with Republican lawmakers to ensure that his next attempt to pass legislation is not a repeat of the healthcare debacle.

It's been a relatively slow start to trading on Friday, with the final day of the week also falling on the final day of the month and quarter which can often result in rather uneventful markets as we await any final quarter-end portfolio rebalancing.

The final hours of the week could be quite active though as final rebalancing occurs and with a number of important pieces of economic data being released at the same time, it could make for an interesting end to the day. The inflation outlook in the US, while being on track to hit the Federal Reserve's 2% target, continues to be the main reason behind the cautious tightening cycle that the central bank has embarked on and today we'll get some important figures on just that.

The core PCE price index is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation and currently lingers below its target at 1.7%, well below the core CPI equivalent which is actually above target. Any increase today would surely increase the possibility of a rate hike in June, especially with the Fed having to consider the possibility of substantial fiscal stimulus towards the end of the year.

A key contributor to the inflation outlook that has been lacking since the financial crisis is higher wages and spending, two more areas that we'll get insight on today. Personal income and spending figures will be released alongside the inflation numbers and are expected to be relatively consistent with what we've seen in recent months. This should ensure the tightening cycle remains gradual and doesn't risk choking off the ongoing recovery in the economy.

We'll also hear from a couple of Fed policy makers today, with James Bullard and Neel Kaskari – the most dovish of the voting members of the FOMC and the only one to have to dissented to a hike in March – both appearing throughout the day. Both appear after the release of the inflation, earnings and spending data so we may get early insight into their views on the numbers, particularly Kashkari's given that inflation being below target was a major factor in his decision to dissent.

USD/CHF Stalling around parity.

USD/CHF is strengthening. Hourly support is given at 0.9814 (27/03/2017 low). Key resistance can be found at a distance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high). Expected to show further consolidating below parity.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD Ready for another leg lower.

USD/CAD is struggling to go any higher. A break of resistance area around 1.3400 is needed to invalidate the current short term bearish technical structure. The road seems still wideopen for larger decline. Key support is given at 1.2969 (31/01/2017 low).

In the longer term, there is a golden cross with the 50 dma crossing the 200 dma indicating further upside pressures. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).

AUD/USD Bouncing.

AUD/USD is moving higher. The pair has failed to test the key resistance at 0.7778 (08/11/2016 high). Expected to see some short-term weakness towards support area around 0.7500.

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

Spot Gold is holding near fresh ten-day low at $1239, posted on Friday in extension of previous day’s sharp fall, when the yellow metal lost nearly 1%, driven by stronger dollar.

Pullback from fresh high at $1261 (posted on 27 Mar) is seen as correction ahead of renewed attack at cracked 200SMA ($1259) and final push towards 27 Feb peak at $1263.

The notion is supported by persisting safe-haven demand on political uncertainty.

Bullish daily studies also favor fresh upside, as thick daily cloud (spanned between $1233 and $1193) continues to underpin recovery from $1197 (15 Mar low).

Extended pullback should find support at $1236/33 zone (Fibo 38.2% of $1197/$1261 rally / daily cloud top) to keep bullish structure intact.

Alternative scenario sees risk of deeper correction on penetration into daily cloud and violation of daily Kijun-sen line ($1229) that would expose $1221 (Fibo 61.8%).

Res: 1245, 1250, 1255, 1259
Sup: 1239, 1236, 1233, 1229

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.33; (P) 138.96; (R1) 140.19; More...

GBP/JPY's rebound and break of 139.39 minor resistance suggests short term bottoming at 137.51. Fall from 144.77 is possibly completed already. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 142.79 resistance first. Break will send GBP/JPY through 144.77 to 148.42 high. Overall, price actions from 148.42 are seen as forming a consolidation pattern. In case of another fall, we'd expect support from 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern. Or, sustained break of 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 will turn outlook bearish for a test on 122.36 low. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78.

EUR/USD Weakening.

EUR/USD is getting lower. The pair is heading lower since the pair failed to hold above former resistance given at 1.0874 (08/12/2017 high). Hourly support given at 1.0719 (21/03/2017 low) has been broken. Stronger support can be found at 1.0493 (22/02/2017 low). The short-term technical structure indicates further weakness..

In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

GBP/USD Bullish pressures.

GBP/USD's bullish pressures increase again after the pair exited short-term uptrend channel. Hourly resistance is located at 1.2615 (27/03/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 1.2324 (03/17/2017 low). Expected to show strengthening towards resistance at 1.2771 (05/10/2016 high).

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY Renewed bullish pressures.

USD/JPY's bearish pressures are fading. Hourly resistance can be located at 113.57 (16/03/2017 high) while support is given at 110.11 (27/03/2017 low).

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.08; (P) 119.46; (R1) 119.84; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains mildly on the downside as the fall from 122.88 should target 118.23 support. At this point, we're holding on to the view that price actions from 124.08 are forming a consolidation pattern. There, strong support is expected around 118.45 key cluster support level (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 120.43 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 122.88 resistance.

In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that medium term rise from 109.20 is still in progress. Focus is on 126.09 key resistance level. Sustained break will confirm completion of the whole decline from 149.76. And rise from 109.20 is of the same degree as the fall from 149.76. In such case, further rally would be seen to 104.04 resistance and possibly above before topping. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09, or firm break of 118.45 cluster support, will likely extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3924; (P) 1.3992; (R1) 1.4034; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. At this point, we're still mildly favoring the case of trend reversal. And, another rise is expected as long as 1.3872 support holds. Above 1.4309 should send the cross through channel resistance (now at 1.4364) to 1.4721 key resistance. However, break of 1.3872 will dampen our bullish view and bring retest of 1.3642 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction could be completed after testing 1.3671 support. Break of 1.4721 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.4756) should confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5455 and above. Overall, we'd expect the up trend from 1.1602 to resume later. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.