Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8523; (P) 0.8592; (R1) 0.8628; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside for 0.8402 support. Break of 0.8402 will extend the correction from 0.9304 with the third leg. In that case, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, though, above 0.8604 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0672; (P) 1.0700; (R1) 1.0715; More...

EUR/CHF is still holding on to 1.0683 minor support despite brief breach. Intraday bias stays neutral first. We'd slightly favoring the case of trend reversal on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. And, further rise is mildly in favor as long as 1.0683 minor support holds. Above 1.0761 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.0823 resistance first. Break will re-affirm the case of trend reversal and target 1.0897 resistance next. However, firm break of 1.0683 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.0620 key support level again.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 1.0897 resistance should confirm that it's completed. And in that case, larger up trend is resuming for another high above 1.1198. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485.

Chinese official PMI manufacturing surprised on the upside, rising to 51.8 (consensus 51.7, previous 51.6). It points to still strong growth at the end of Q1. Caixin PMI manufacturing is due to be released on Monday and we believe this is likely to paint a similar picture.

The biggest strength in the number today was in the export orders index, which rose from 50.8 to 51.0, which is the highest level since 2012. The stronger global economy and effects of the weaker CNY are giving strong support to the export sector currently (see Chart 2).

The overall new orders index also rose from 53.0 to 53.3. It is close to the level at the end of 2016 and probably reflects some moderation in domestic order growth compensated by the strong export growth (see Chart 3). The order-inventory index also increased but is below the peak from December (see Chart 4).

The bottom line is that Chinese growth continued to be strong throughout Q1. Our leading indicators point to a slowdown in 2017, as policy is tighter and investment plans are lower than in 2016. However, the strength of the housing market at the start of 2017 is likely to have postponed the slowdown. We expect the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to embark on further tightening to cool the housing market, as this is the main concern in China today, together with the rising leverage in the financial system. We believe the PBoC will continue tightening until it sees visible signs that housing is slowing. Investment plans and electricity generation are two of the indicators that suggest softer growth.

With continued strength in China, emerging markets assets and global risk sentiment continue to get support from this front. Some moderation in PMI in coming quarters should weaken the picture but not cause great turmoil. For emerging markets’ assets, carry and valuation have moved to the fore as investment drivers, as there are no imminent risks and the global backdrop is fairly positive. On the China front, the coming meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is key. Trump continues to highlight the significant US-China deficit as a big problem

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7628; (P) 0.7653; (R1) 0.7667; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.7748 will extend the rally from 0.7158. In that case, we'd expect strong resistance from long term retracement level at 0.7849 to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.7586 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7490 support. Firm break there will confirm completion of rise from 0.7158. In such case, near term outlook will be turned bearish for 0.7158 support next.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8169) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3299; (P) 1.3325; (R1) 1.3373; More....

USD/CAD was supported above 1.3263 and recovered. Intraday bias is turned neutral again. Overall, fall from 1.3534 is seen as a correction. Below 1.3263 will bring deeper decline. But we'd expect strong support from 1.3211 cluster level (61.8% retracement of 1.3008 to 1.3534 at 1.3209) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.3413 will target a test on 1.3534 resistance first. Rise from 1.2968 is expected to resume later to extend through the whole medium term rise from 1.2460 through 1.3598.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is likely still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. We'd look for reversal signal there to start the third leg. Break of 1.2968 wold at least bring at retest of 1.2460 low. However, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

USD/CHF - 1.0012

Original strategy :

Buy at 0.9950, Target: 1.0050, Stop: 0.9915

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 0.9950, Target: 1.0050, Stop: 0.9915

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback has surged again after finding renewed buying interest at 0.9948 yesterday, adding credence to our view that recent decline has ended at 0.9813 and bullishness remains for the rise from there to extend further gain to 1.0030, then towards previous support at 1.0060 (now resistance), however, near term overbought condition should limit upside and price should falter below resistance at 1.0109, risk from there is seen for a retreat later. 

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy dollar on pullback as said support at 0.9948 should limit downside. Below 0.9910-15 would abort and signal top is formed instead, bring correction to 0.9880 but reckon previous resistance at 0.9869 would hold from here. 

GBP/USD - 1.2444

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although cable has retreated after yesterday’s rise to 1.2524 in part due to cross-trading in sterling and consolidation below said resistance would be seen, break of 1.2400 is needed to revive bearishness and signal the rebound from 1.2377 has ended at 1.2524, bring retest of 1.2377 (this week’s low) first, otherwise, further choppy trading would take place and risk of another rebound remains.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Above 1.2500 would bring another test of 1.2524, break there would bring test of previous support at 1.2539, however, break there is needed to signal the fall from 1.2616 has ended, bring further rise to 1.2555-60 later. 

EUR/USD - 1.0677

Original strategy  :

Sell at 1.0745, Target: 1.0645, Stop: 1.0780

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.0745, Target: 1.0645, Stop: 1.0780

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As this week’s selloff has kept euro under pressure, adding credence to our bearish view that top has been formed at 1.0906 and bearishness remains for the decline from there to extend further weakness to 1.0660, then 1.0640, however, near term oversold condition would limit downside and reckon previous strong support at 1.0600 would hold from here, bring rebound later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell dollar on recovery as 1.0740-50 should limit upside. Only above resistance at 1.0773 would suggest low is formed instead, bring a stronger rebound to 1.0800 but resistance at 1.0827 should remain intact. 

USD/JPY - 111.90

Original strategy  :

Buy at 111.25, Target: 112.25, Stop: 110.90

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 111.50, Target: 112.50, Stop: 111.15

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback has eased after intra-day initial rise too 112.20, suggesting minor consolidation below this level would be seen and test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 111.60) is likely, however, reckon previous resistance at 111.32 would contain downside and bring another rise later, above indicated resistance at 112.20-26 would extend the upmove from 110.11 low to 112.50-55 but price should falter below previous resistance at 112.87-90, bring retreat.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy dollar on pullback as 111.50 should limit downside. Below the upper Kumo (now at 111.13) would defer and risk test of 110.90-95, break there would abort and signal top is formed instead, bring weakness to support at 110.72, break there would suggest the rebound from 110.11 (this week’s low) has ended, then further fall to 110.45-50 would follow. 

Day two of the Brexit negotiations period and it's all kicking off. Threats and warnings abound, while the Scottish First Minister opts for guerrilla tactics in trying to ambush the British Prime Minister over another 'once in a lifetime' independence vote. "Keep calm and carry on" is the best policy for Theresa May, as the 27 remaining members of the EU discuss Britain's departure today.

In spite of all the furore, Sterling held up well on Thursday and even gained ground in some areas. We end the week with UK Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, which have the capacity to improve slightly on the previous estimates. That would boost the Pound. We'll also get the current account balance, which we think will have narrowed marginally and we'll have a speech from Andy Haldane, who holds the snappy title of "Chief Economist and Executive Director of Monetary Analysis and Statistics" at the Bank of England. (Massive business cards…huge!) If he hints that the Bank of England (BoE) might be edging closer to a rate hike, that will also be positive for Sterling.

The Euro is having a more troubled time. Perhaps it has dawned on traders that Brexit could be bad for the Eurozone and for the EU generally. The Euro is weaker against Sterling, the USD and others. Eurozone inflation is due for release this morning and that is expected to be a tad lower than last month's 2.0% figure. Less pressure on the ECB to look at interest rate hikes, then, and it would therefore leave further room for Euro weakness.

The US and Chinese Presidents meet next week and their approaches have been very different. President Xi said the meeting can be a new starting point for the US and China to become "great partners". President Trump tweeted that the meeting will be "a very difficult one". In the meantime, we will get US income and expenditure data this afternoon and that is likely to be mildly positive for the USD.

It is the last day of the month and the quarter and it is the last day of the financial year for a lot of UK companies. There is a significant risk of volatility today and, particularly over late trade into the US close. This is another opportunity for those with any sort of requirement to place automated orders to do your bidding as the markets shuffle ahead of the trading day. Have a word with your Halo Financial currency consultant to see how that could work for you.

NZ business confidence declined again in March, as shown by overnight data from the ANZ Business Outlook. A net 11% of the companies that were surveyed are optimistic about the general outlook for the economy. That is much lower than last month's 16.6% percent in February. The NZ Dollar weakened a little on the news.

This afternoon's data also brings Canada's GDP growth data. A small slowdown is expected and the Canadian Dollar may well weaken a tad on that news, if the forecasters have got it right of course…

It is Kindness Day in the UK, so I will spare you any corny jokes. (Kindness personified, that's me!)

And it is April Fool's day tomorrow, so trust no one and believe nothing you see or hear. Kind of the antidote to kindness, isn't it.

See you in April.

Some suggested honest product tag lines

Monopoly - Destroyer of family harmony

Lego - Foot pain for the unwary

Bic - You probably didn't buy it

Netflix - 90% searching 10% watching

iPhone - you bought the hype, sucker!

Google - We know more about you than anything else

Southern Rail - We occasionally run trains

Lush - Scent induced high street headaches

Argos - You can only see it when you've paid