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USD/CAD stayed in consolidation below 1.3793 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week. We're seeing choppy rise from 1.2460 as a corrective move. Hence, in case of another rally, we'd expect upside to be limited by 1.3838 fibonacci level to bring reversal. Meanwhile, break of 1.3534 resistance turned support will suggest that rise from 1.2968 has completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for medium term channel (now at 1.3176).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. Rise from 1.2460 is seen as the second leg and would end at around 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. Break of 1.3222 should indicate the start of the third leg while further break of 1.2968 should confirm. Nonetheless, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is viewed as a long term up trend. It's taking a breath after hitting 1.4689. But such rise expected to resume later to test 1.6196 down the road.

GBP/JPY rose further to 148.09 last week but lost momentum ahead of 148.42 resistance. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, a short term top is in place. Initial bias is neutral this week for more consolidation. Deeper pull back might be seen. But in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 135.58 to 148.09 at 143.31 and bring rise resumption. Break of 148.42 will target 150.42 long term fibonacci level first. Break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 122.36 to 148.42 from 135.58 at 161.64.

In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, rise from 122.36 bottom should be developing into a medium term move. Break of 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42 should pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. This will now be the favored case as long as 135.58 support holds.

In the longer term picture, based on the impulsive structure of the decline from 195.86 to 122.36, such fall should not be completed yet. But we will now pay close attention to the structure of the rise from 122.36 to determine whether it's a corrective move, or an impulsive move. That would decide whether a break of 116.83 low would be seen.

EUR/JPY edged higher to 124.53 last week but lost momentum after breaching 124.08 resistance. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, a short term top could be in place. Initial bias is neutral stays neutral this week first. Break of 122.92 minor support will bring deeper pull back towards 38.2% retracement of 114.84 to 124.53 at 120.82 and bring rise resumption. We're holding on to the view that whole rally from 109.03 is resuming. Break of 124.53 will target 126.09 key resistance next. Break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 109.03 to 124.08 from 114.84 at 129.89.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 126.09 support turned resistance. Decisive break there will confirm completion of the down trend from 149.76. And in such case, rise from 109.20 is at the same degree and should target 141.04 resistance and above. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09 and break of 114.84 will extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.

In the long term picture, medium term decline from 149.76 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern from 88.96. We're not seeing any sign of an established long term trend yet. Hence, we'll be cautious on strong support at 94.11 in case of another fall. Also, there could be strong resistance at 149.76 in case of a medium term rise.

EUR/GBP dipped to 0.8383 last week but quickly recovered. The corrective structure of fall from 0.8529 to 0.8383 suggests that rebound from 0.8312 is still in progress. Break of 0.8508 resistance should confirm and bring stronger rise.

Initial bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.8508 will extend the rebound from 0.8312 to 0.8786 resistance next. Further break there will target 0.9304 high. On the downside, below 0.8383 will turn bias to the downside for 0.8303/8312 support zone instead. Overall, EUR/GBP is staying in the corrective pattern from 0.9304 which will extend for a while.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. In case of deeper fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) will resume at a later stage to 0.9799 (2008 high). However, sustained break of 0.8116 could bring deeper decline to next key support level at 0.7564 before the correction completes.

In the long term picture, firstly, price action from 0.9799 (2008 high) is seen as a long term corrective pattern and should have completed at 0.6935 (2015 low). Secondly, rise from 0.6935 is likely resuming up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Thirdly, this is supported by the impulsive structure of the rise from 0.6935 to 0.9304. Hence, after the correction from 0.9304 completes, we'd expect another medium term up trend to target 0.9799 high and above.

EUR/AUD stayed in consolidation below 1.4909 last week and recent rebound lost momentum. But overall outlook is unchanged. That is, whole correction from 1.6587 has completed at 1.3624 already after defending 1.3671 key support level. Further rise is expected to next fibonacci level at 1.5455 after consolidation completes.

Initial bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral this week first. Consolidation from 1.4909 could extend and deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 1.4442/4649 support to bring rise resumption. Above 1.4909 will extend recent rally from 1.3624 to next medium term fibonacci level at 1.5455.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 is now expected to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455 and above. In any case, outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4309 resistance turned support holds.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn't over yet. We'll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

EUR/CHF's strong rally last week affirmed our view of trend reversal. That is, corrective pattern from 1.1198 has completed already after defending 1.0653 fibonacci level. Nonetheless, as the cross lost momentum ahead of 1.0999 resistance, we'd expect some more consolidation in near term before another rally.

Initial bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral this week for consolidation. Deeper pull back could be seen but downside is expected to be contained by 1.0791/0872 support zone to bring rise resumption. As noted before, the consolidative pattern from 1.1198 should be completed. Firm break of 1.0999 resistance will pave the way for a retest on 1.1198 high.

In the bigger picture, the price actions from 1.1198 are seen as a corrective move. Current strong rebound is raising the chance that it's completed after defending 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653. Decisive break of 1.0999 resistance will target a test on 1.1198 high. For now, this will be the preferred case as long as 1.0791 support holds.

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