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EUR/USD remains under pressure and has edged lower in the Thursday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.0740. On the release front, key releases out of the eurozone and the US could shake up the euro on Thursday. Germany will release Preliminary CPI, which is expected to soften to 0.4%. The US will publish Final GDP and unemployment claims. Final GDP is expected to edge up to 2.0%, compared to Preliminary GDP which came in at 1.9%. On the labor front, unemployment claims is expected to improve to 244 thousand, after an unexpectedly high figure of 261 thousand last week. On Friday, Germany releases retail sales and unemployment claims. The eurozone will publish CPI Flash Estimate while the US releases UoM Consumer Sentiment.

It's been a busy week for the euro. The currency jumped above the 1.09 level on Monday, its highest level since November 2016. However, it's been all downhill since then, as the euro struggles to stay above the 1.07 line. EUR/USD posted strong gains following President Trump's failure to pass health legislation to replace parts of Obamacare. However, investors have moved on and are focusing on Trump's next move, which apparently will be legislation to reform the tax code. Germany will release key consumer inflation and spending data on Thursday and Friday, and unexpected readings could affect the direction of the euro. The economy, the largest in Europe, has has enjoyed a robust first quarter in 2017. Stronger global trade has led to increased demand for German exports, notably cars and machinery. Germany's GDP expanded 1.6% in 2016, its highest rate since 2012. The generally positive picture in Germany has boosted the eurozone economy and if the strong numbers continue, the ECB will be under more pressure to tighten monetary policy.

It's been a series of growing pains for the Trump administration, which has stumbled out of the starting gate. Trump, who has been in office for more than two months, has yet to provide any details of an economic policy. Last week, Trump's proposed bill was dead on arrival before even being voted on, a humiliating defeat for the president. This setback has made the markets even more jittery about Trump, and the inquiry into the Trump administration's links with Russia is gathering steam, which is another cause for concern for nervous investors. Trump has said he will now focus on tax reform, but the White House will need to improve coordination with Republican lawmakers to ensure that his next attempt to pass legislation is not a repeat of the healthcare debacle.

Gold Small consolidation.

Gold is getting stronger. The momentum seems back to bullish despite some consolidation. Strong resistance is located at 1263 (27/02/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 1224.10 (16/03/2017 low). Expected to show further strengthening.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low)

Silver Consolidating above $18.

Silver has increased above 18.00. Resistance given at 17.56 has been broken. Hourly support is given at 16.82 (15/03/2017 low).

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

Crude oil Renewed bullish pressures.

Crude oil's bearish pressures seems to fade. The commodity had been located in a bearish trend since the commodity had been unable to mount a serious challenge to resistance at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 47.09 (016/03/2017 low).

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 24.82 (13/11/2002) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

EUR/CHF Trading sideways.

EUR/CHF's is moving up and down. The medium-term pattern suggests us to see continued bearish pressures towards key support that can be found at 1.0623 (24/06/2016 low).

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/JPY Weakening.

EUR/JPY rejection at 122.88 has triggered a correction. The pair is also very volatile. Hourly support at 119.33 (23/03/2017 low) has been broken. Resistance stands at 122.88 (13/03/0217 high). Expected to show continued weakness.

In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support at 94.12 (24/07/2012 low) looks nonetheless far away.

EUR/GBP Lack of follow-through.

EUR/GBP's bullish flag finally ended up as a false flag. Strong resistance is given at 0.8787 (13/03/2017 high). Key resistance is given at 0.8854 (15/01/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 0.8605 (23/03/2017 low. Expected to show continued weakness.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

USD/CHF Riding again towards parity.

USD/CHF is strengthening. Hourly support is given at 0.9814 (27/03/2017 low). Key resistance can be found at a distance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high). Expected to show further consolidating below parity.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD Demand is fading.

USD/CAD is struggling to go any higher. A break of resistance area around 1.3400 is needed to invalidate the current short term bearish technical structure. The road seems still wideopen for larger decline. Key support is given at 1.2969 (31/01/2017 low).

In the longer term, there is a golden cross with the 50 dma crossing the 200 dma indicating further upside pressures. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).

AUD/USD Bouncing.

AUD/USD is moving higher. The pair has failed to test the key resistance at 0.7778 (08/11/2016 high). Expected to see some short-term weakness towards support area around 0.7500.

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD – 1.3343

USD/CAD – Wave v ended at 0.9407 and a-b-c correction may extend gain to 1.4700

As the greenback met resistance at 1.3415 and has retreated, consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for weakness to 1.3300 but break of support at 1.3264 is needed to add credence to our view that a temporary top has been formed at 1.3535 earlier this month, bring correction of recent upmove to previous resistance at 1.3210-12 (now support). Only below this level would suggest the rebound from 1.2969 has ended and prolong choppy trading, bring weakness to 1.3100 but downside should be limited to 1.3056 support, bring rebound later.

We are keeping our view that the wave b from 1.0657 (a leg top) has possibly ended at 0.9633 with (a): 0.9800, wave (b): 1.0447 and wave c at 0.9633, the subsequent rise from there is now treated as wave c exceeded indicated upside target at 1.3770-80 and 1.4000 and wave (3) has possibly ended at 1.4690 and wave (4) correction has commenced for retracement back to 1.2832 support, then 1.2410-20.

On the daily chart, our latest preferred count remains that the A of (B) rally from 0.9059 low (7 Nov 2007) unfolded into an impulsive wave with i: 0.9059-1.0380, ii ended at 0.9819, iii at 1.3019 followed by triangle wave iv at 1.2026 , then wave v formed a top at 1.3066 and also ended the wave A. The wave B is unfolding as an double three a-b-c-x-a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c at 1.0784, followed by wave x at 1.1725, another set of a-b-c unfolded with 2nd a at 0.9931, 2nd b at 1.0674. the 2nd c has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3900 had been met and gain to 1.4700 would follow.

On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 1.3390-00 and bring another decline. Above 1.3425-30 would suggest the retreat from 1.3535 has possibly ended, bring a stronger rebound to 1.3500, then retest of 1.3535. A break of this resistance would revive bullishness and signal the rise from 1.2969 is still in progress for retest of 1.3599 top, once this level is penetrated, this would confirm the erratic rise from 1.2461 low has resumed for a stronger correction of early decline from 1.4690 (2016 high) to 1.3700 and later towards 1.3790-00, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.3835-40 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4690-1.2461) and bring retreat later.

Recommendation: Sell at 1.3390 for 1.3190 with stop above 1.3490.

Longer term - The selloff from 1.6194 (21 Jan 2002) to 0.9059 (07 Nov 2007) is viewed as (A) wave which is a 5-waver as labeled on the monthly chart as below, the subsequently rally is labeled as (B) with impulsive A leg of (B) ended at 1.3066, wave B of (B) is unfolding which has either ended at 0.9407 or would extend one more fall but downside should be limited to 0.9200 and 0.9000 should hold.

We have seen some nice dollar gains in the last few sessions against some major currencies, such as EUR, GBP; CHF and JPY, but not against commodity currencies. So if you are looking at Dollar Index price chart and want to be involved in long dollar trade, then I would say to avoid commodity pairs at the moment as these are not calculated in DX quote; well only CAD is but for 9.1%, while EUR has 57.6% weight. We also see commodity markets moving in-line with higher stocks, which is another reason why commodity currencies are doing quote well compared to EUR, GBP, JPY and CHF.

That said, if DX is headed higher then my eyes should be on EUR/USD and positively correlated pairs. I like the structure on euro at the moment, because of clear five wave fall from 1.0905; an impulse that can see a reversal now in three waves. I will normally wait on prices to retrace at least 38.2% before I may look for a resumption of a downtrend. So first resistance is seen near 1.0800, while second and maybe more important one is at 1.0825.

EURUSD, 1H

EUR/USD Continued weakness.

EUR/USD is getting lower. The pair has failed to hold above former resistance given at 1.0874 (08/12/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 1.0719 (21/03/2017 low). Stronger support can be found at 1.0493 (22/02/2017 low). The short-term technical structure indicates further weakness..

In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

GBP/USD Consolidating on support area at 1.24.

GBP/USD has exited short-term uptrend channel. Hourly resistance is located at 1.2615 (27/03/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 1.2324 (03/17/2017 low). Expected to show renewed strengthening towards resistance at 1.2771 (05/10/2016 high).

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY Moving sideways.

USD/JPY's bearish pressures are fading. Hourly resistance can be located at 113.57 (16/03/2017 high) while support is given at 110.11 (27/03/2017 low).

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

'The good news is that warm winter weather has led to a surge in construction that will hopefully result in a bloom of new homes for sale this spring.' - Joseph Kirchner, realtor.com

Pending home sales increased substantially and, thus, surprised many experts, who did not expect such a leap. In February, the Pending Home Sales Index spiked 5.5% and reached the highest level in almost a year and the second highest level in over a decade. Growth was partially attributable to a record-warm end of winter, which motivated people to start looking for a house more actively than usual. Another factor that boosted sales was households' concern over a possible rise of interest rates by the end of this year. However, the main reason behind increased sales was strong demand, which was driven by improving economic conditions in the US. Yet, many potential home-buyers faced the problem of supply shortages, which negatively impacted prices, especially in the lower- and mid-market price ranges.

Other data released on Wednesday revealed that US crude oil inventories rose 900,000 barrels last week, following the preceding week's gain of 5 million barrels. Meanwhile, analysts anticipated a climb of 1.2 million barrels during the reported week. Oil prices rose shortly after the release, with WTI jumping above $49 per barrel. Data suggests that the OPEC production deal cut has finally started bearing fruits.

News and Events:

Brazilian government caps spending (by Arnaud Masset)

In spite of rising global uncertainty, emerging market currencies have been rather resilient over the last couple of weeks. However, one has to acknowledge that volatility also increased temporarily as investors preferred to remain cautious in the event that Donal Trump had to face another setback in implementing his programme. After completely erasing losses from last November and returning to around 3.05 in February, the Brazilian real has been trading in a volatile range since then, moving between 3.06 and 3.20 as investors await further clarity on the US outlook to emerge.

It goes without saying that local developments in EM countries have been largely ignored recently - with the exception of the political turmoil in South Africa earlier this week - as market participants were too busy trying to anticipate Trump’s next move. A fresh batch of economic data from Brazil is due for release later today. January retail sales are expected to come in at -4.3%y/y (versus -4.9% in December) or +0.5%m/m (versus -2% in the previous month). The Brazilian economy is slowly gearing up as the central bank progressively eases its monetary policy. The Selic rate is currently at 12.25% but the market anticipates the benchmark rate to reach 9% by the end of the year as inflation is expected to return within the BCB’s target range of 4.5% +/-1.5%. All in all, looking at the hard data it seems as though Brazil is on the right track, however on the domestic side, the political situation is in complete upheaval and the uncertainty that stems from it should prevent the real from returning quickly towards its pre-recession levels. Moreover, the austerity measures planned by the government will further delay a speedy recovery. Nevertheless, it is a necessary evil to restore confidence and attract foreign investments. Short-term BRL gains cannot be ruled out as investors are still chasing returns and Brazil’s temporary stability is quite attractive.

UK: The exit process has finally begun (by Yann Quelenn)

Since yesterday’s triggering of Article 50, the Footsie 100 has risen and is now trading 16% higher than pre-Brexit levels.

While the Brexit vote last year triggered a sell-off, we believe that there will not be a hard Brexit. However, it is clear that negotiations will be tough with all members having to agree on the final deal, which means that the next two years will be a serious rollercoaster ride.

We believe that the pound will further appreciate this year. Losing 20% in the wake of the referendum vote, the weaker sterling has provided the UK with a strong exports boost. Strengthening of the pound is now very likely especially as Europe faces a veritable minefield with the upcoming French and German elections. Time to reload GBP.

Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):

• Mar Economic Confidence, last 91,5 TRY / 07:00
• Mar KOF Leading Indicator, exp 105,8, last 107,2, rev 106,9 CHF / 07:00
• Mar P CPI MoM, exp 0,20%, last -0,40% EUR / 07:00
• Mar P CPI YoY, exp 2,60%, last 3,00% EUR / 07:00
• Mar P CPI EU Harmonised MoM, exp 1,50%, last -0,30% EUR / 07:00
• Mar P CPI EU Harmonised YoY, exp 2,70%, last 3,00% EUR / 07:00
• Feb Foreign Tourist Arrivals YoY, exp -13,40%, last -9,80% TRY / 08:00
• Bank of Finland Governor Liikanen Briefing on Monetary Policy EUR / 08:00
• Mar Economic Confidence, exp 108,3, last 108 EUR / 09:00
• Mar Business Climate Indicator, exp 0,87, last 0,82 EUR / 09:00
• Mar Industrial Confidence, exp 1,4, last 1,3 EUR / 09:00
• Mar Services Confidence, exp 14, last 13,8 EUR / 09:00
• Mar F Consumer Confidence, exp -5, last -5 EUR / 09:00
• ECB's Nowotny Speaks at Austrian central bank presser EUR / 09:15
• Feb PPI MoM, exp 0,50%, last 0,40% ZAR / 09:30
• Feb PPI YoY, exp 5,60%, last 5,90% ZAR / 09:30
• ECB Executive Board member Praet speaks in Berlin EUR / 10:00
• Mar FGV Inflation IGPM MoM, exp 0,05%, last 0,08% BRL / 11:00
• Mar FGV Inflation IGPM YoY, exp 4,88%, last 5,38% BRL / 11:00
• Feb Electricity Consumption YoY, last -0,60% ZAR / 11:00
• Feb Electricity Production YoY, last 0,80% ZAR / 11:00
• Central Bank Q1 Inflation Report BRL / 11:00
• Dutch Central Bank to Publish Annual Report EUR / 11:00
• mars.24 Foreigners Net Bond Invest, last $10m TRY / 11:30
• mars.24 Foreigners Net Stock Invest, last $44m TRY / 11:30
• Jan Economic Activity MoM, exp -0,10%, last -0,26% BRL / 11:30
• Jan Economic Activity YoY, exp -0,20%, last -1,82% BRL / 11:30
• Feb South Africa Budget, last -38.7b ZAR / 12:00
• Jan Retail Sales YoY, exp -4,30%, last -4,90% BRL / 12:00
• Jan Retail Sales MoM, exp 0,50%, last -2,00% BRL / 12:00
• Jan Retail Sales Broad YoY, exp -5,90%, last -6,70% BRL / 12:00
• Jan Retail Sales Broad MoM, exp -0,90%, last -0,10% BRL / 12:00
• Mar P CPI MoM, exp 0,40%, last 0,60% EUR / 12:00
• Mar P CPI YoY, exp 1,80%, last 2,20% EUR / 12:00
• Mar P CPI EU Harmonized MoM, exp 0,50%, last 0,70% EUR / 12:00
• Mar P CPI EU Harmonized YoY, exp 1,90%, last 2,20% EUR / 12:00
• 4Q T GDP Annualized QoQ, exp 2,00%, last 1,90% USD / 12:30
• 4Q T Personal Consumption, exp 3,00%, last 3,00% USD / 12:30
• 4Q T GDP Price Index, exp 2,00%, last 2,00% USD / 12:30
• Feb Industrial Product Price MoM, exp 0,40%, last 0,40% CAD / 12:30
• 4Q T Core PCE QoQ, exp 1,20%, last 1,20% USD / 12:30
• Feb Raw Materials Price Index MoM, exp 0,90%, last 1,70% CAD / 12:30
• mars.25 Initial Jobless Claims, exp 247k, last 261k USD / 12:30
• mars.18 Continuing Claims, exp 2031k, last 1990k USD / 12:30
• mars.24 Gold and Forex Reserve, last 395.7b RUB / 13:00
• Finance Minister Padoan, Bank of Italy Governor at Event EUR / 13:00
• Fed's Mester Speaks in Chicago on Payment System Improvement USD / 13:45
• mars.26 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, last 51,3 USD / 13:45
• Dallas Fed's Kaplan Speaks in Washington USD / 15:00
• Fed's Williams Speaks at Learning Community Event in New York USD / 15:15
• Feb Central Govt Budget Balance, exp -21.6b, last 19.0b BRL / 18:00
• Fed's Dudley Speaks in Sarasota USD / 20:30
• Feb Building Permits MoM, last 0,80% NZD / 21:45

The Risk Today:

EUR/USD is getting lower. The pair has failed to hold above former resistance given at 1.0874 (08/12/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 1.0719 (21/03/2017 low). Stronger support can be found at 1.0493 (22/02/2017 low). The short-term technical structure indicates further weakness.. In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

GBP/USD has exited short-term uptrend channel. Hourly resistance is located at 1.2615 (27/03/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 1.2324 (03/17/2017 low). Expected to show renewed strengthening towards resistance at 1.2771 (05/10/2016 high). The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY's bearish pressures are fading. Hourly resistance can be located at 113.57 (16/03/2017 high) while support is given at 110.11 (27/03/2017 low). We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

USD/CHF is strengthening. Hourly support is given at 0.9814 (27/03/2017 low). Key resistance can be found at a distance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high). Expected to show further consolidating below parity. In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

After a steady uptrend on EUR/USD, we see that important trend line has been broken and the pair has been dropping consistently for 2 days. One of the reasons why EUR/USD is dropping is possibly profit taking which was enacted by hedge funds as French elections grow closer. Today POC zone for selling is 1.0775-90 (D H3, ATR Pivot, inner trend line, EMA89) while we might expect buyers within 1.0665-85 zone (Order block, D L5, W L5, 78.6). Any break of Upper POC range (1.0790) and Lower POC range (1.0665) should establish new intraweek trend. At this point we need to treat this as range play with 2 zones where EUR/USD might react.

Quick Summary:

D H3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Resistance)

POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react - aka entry zone)

D L5 - Daily L5 Camarilla (Strongest Daily Support)

W L5- Weekly L5 Camarilla (Strongest Weekly Support)

Bullish Order Block - The height of bearish candle prior to move up