Sample Category Title

FTSE fell to two-month low at 7179, following lower opening on Monday and subsequent bearish acceleration.

Significantly stronger pound keeps the index under increased pressure that resulted in break below 55SMA which held bears in past three days.

Fresh weakness cracked next strong support at 7184 (Fibo 61.8% of 7024/7444 upleg) and came ticks ahead of another strong support, daily cloud top (currently at 7169).

Daily studies are turning in bearish setup and favor further weakness. Consolidation above daily cloud could be expected, with broken 55SMA now acting as solid resistance and expected to ideally cap upticks.

Res: 7219, 7229, 7254, 7280
Sup: 7184, 7179, 7169, 7123

GOLD (in USD) Back to 1-month high.

Gold has risen sharply invalidating the bearish outlook. The momentum seems back to bullish. Strong resistance is located at 1263 (27/02/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 1224.10 (16/03/2017 low). Expected to show further strengthening.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

SILVER Increasing demand.

Silver has surged on Friday. Resistance given at 17.56 resistance (16/03/2017 high) has been broken. Hourly support is given at 16.82 (15/03/2017 low).

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

Crude Oil Heading downwards

Crude oil's bearish pressures continues despite correct bounce due to a short-squeeze. The commodity had been unable to mount a serious challenge to resistance at 49.61 (08/12/2017 low) hourly support given at 47.09 (016/03/2017 low) Expected to see deeper selling pressures.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 24.82 (13/11/2002) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

Weekly

    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star 
    •    Time of formation: 03 May 2016
    •    Trend bias: Down

Daily

    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
    •    Time of formation: 3 May 2016
    •    Trend bias: Sideways

EUR/USD – 1.0868

The single currency only eased to 1.0719 (we recommended to buy at 1.0690 last week and missed our long entry) before finding renewed buying interest and euro has rallied again since, price broke above indicated previous resistance at 1.0829, adding credence to our view that early erratic rise from 1.0340 low is still in progress and may extend further subsequent gain to 1.0930-35 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1300-1.0340), then towards 1.1000, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1050 and reckon 1.1100 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a retreat later.

On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 1.0830-35 cannot be ruled out, reckon 1.0780-85 would limit downside and bring another upmove later to aforesaid upside targets. A daily close below support at 1.0760 would risk test of the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.0741) but support at 1.0719 should remain intact, bring another rise later. A drop below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0684) would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, bring test of the upper Kumo (now at 1.0654) but a drop below the lower Kumo (now at 1.0607) is needed to signal top is formed, bring further fall to 1.0550 later.

Recommendation: Buy again at 1.0785 for 1.0985 with stop below 1.0685.

On the weekly chart, the single currency finally broke above previous resistance at 1.0829, adding credence to our near term bullish view for the erratic rise from 1.0340 low is still in progress for retracement of recent decline, hence upside bias remains for further gain to 1.0930-35 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1300-1.0340) and possibly 1.1000, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.1050-60 and price should falter below 1.1100-10, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later.

On the downside, although initial pullback to 1.0825-30 is likely, reckon downside would be limited to 1.0785-90 and bring another rise later. Below last week’s low at 1.0719 would defer and risk test of the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.0684) but break of indicated support at 1.0600 is needed to signal top is formed, bring further subsequent decline to 1.0525 support but support at 1.0493 should remain intact. A drop below 1.0493 would suggest the corrective rise from 1.0340 has ended instead, bring further fall to key support at 1.0454, only a sustained breach below this level would provide confirmation, then further fall to 1.0390-00 and later retest of this January low would follow.

EUR/CHF Moving sideways.

EUR/CHF's is moving up and down. The medium-term pattern suggests us to see continued bearish pressures towards key support that can be found at 1.0623 (24/06/2016 low).

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/JPY Continued bearish pressures.

EUR/JPY rejection at 122.88 has triggered a correction. The pair is also very volatile. Hourly support can be found at 119.33 (23/03/2017 low). Resistance stands at 122.88 (13/03/0217 high). Expected to show continued weakness.

In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support at 94.12 (24/07/2012 low) looks nonetheless far away.

EUR/GBP Riding downtrend channel.

EUR/GBP continues to head lower. Closer resistance can be found at 0.8787 (13/03/2017 high). Key resistance is given at 0.8854 (15/01/2017 high). Hourly support located at 0.8645( 05/02/2017 low) has been broken but the pair has failed to hold below this level. Expected to show continued weakness.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

USD/CHF Renewed selling pressures.

USD/CHF is declining. Hourly support is given at 0.9862 (31/01/2017 low). Key resistance can be found at a distance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high). Expected to show continued weakness.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD Holding below 1.3400.

USD/CAD is bouncing. However a break of resistance area around 1.3400 is needed to invalidate the current short term bearish technical structure. The road seems still wideopen for larger decline. Key support is given at 1.2969 (31/01/2017 low).

In the longer term, there is a golden cross with the 50 dma crossing the 200 dma indicating further upside pressures. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).

AUD/USD Moving sideways.

AUD/USD has failed to test the key resistance at 0.7778 (08/11/2016 high). Hourly support at 0.7664 (16/03/2017 low) has been broken. Expected to see some short-term weakness towards resistance area around 0.7500.

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

EUR/USD Monitoring resistance given at 1.0874.

EUR/USD keeps on pushing higher towards key resistance given at a distance 1.0874 (08/12/2017 high). Strong support can be found at 1.0493 (22/02/2017 low). Expected to show continued increase.

In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

GBP/USD Edging higher.

GBP/USDnow lies in a short-term uptrend channel. There are rooms for further strength. Hourly resistance is located at 1.2570 (24/02/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 1.2324 (03/17/2017 low). Expected to show continued strength.

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY Ready for further weakness.

USD/JPY continues its declined since the pair has failed to break key resistance given at 115.62 (19/01/2016 high). The pair is heading lower. Hourly resistance can be located at 113.57 (16/03/2017 high).

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

A tidal wave of risk aversion has flooded the financial markets on Monday with global stocks under intense selling pressure after Donald Trump's failure on healthcare reforms sparked concerns about his ability to move ahead with tax cuts and fiscal spending. Asian shares were mostly in the red amid the rising Trump jitters with European equities descending deeper into the abyss as participants scattered away from riskier assets to safe-haven investments. With the reflation trade receiving a heavy blow and uncertainty mounting over Donald Trump's economic policies, Wall Street could be left vulnerable to further losses. The growing threat of Donald Trump's market shaking promises on tax cuts and fiscal spending falling short of market expectations has left investors on edge with risk-off becoming a major theme.

Dollar pressuredas Trump trade fade

The Dollar has found itself under renewed selling pressure on Monday as concerns mount over Donald Trump's ability to push through tax cuts and fiscal spending to elevate the US economy. Last week's defeat to the healthcare bill has raised questions over the longevity of the Trump trade with sellers exploiting the renewed uncertainty to attack the Greenback further. Although the Dollar may remain supported in the longer term amid the improving confidence towards the US economy, the growing uncertainty over Donald Trump's economic policy has left bears in firm control in the short term. Further Dollar weakness may be expected with the lingering effect of the Fed's cautious attitude potentially capping upside gains. From a technical standpoint, the Dollar Index remains under pressure on the daily charts with the breakdown below 99.50 opening a path lower towards 99.00.

Sterling elevated by Dollar weakness

Sterling was uplifted higher during Monday's trading session and this had nothing to do with a change of sentiment towards the vulnerable Pound but Dollar weakness. Despite the gains the Sterling has displayed this quarter, the uncertainty of Brexit may ensure weakness remains a recurrent market theme in the longer term with bears on standby to exploit the technical bounce to attack prices lower. While the recent CPI and retail sales report have somewhat boosted sentiment towards Sterling, investors should be under no illusion that the bearish bias has changed. With further weakness expected as the Brexit negations get under way this week, the current technical bounce on the GBPUSD could come to an abrupt end.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

The renewed concerns over protectionism, Brexit unknowns and Trump jitters have boosted Gold's allure with the metal on route to concluding the quarter as a winner. Uncertainty is rapidly rising over Trump's economic policies and this has caused investors to depart from riskier assets to safe-haven investments such as the Yen and Gold. With the live threat of Trump's highly anticipated pro-growth policies falling below market expectations, risk-off may become the name of the game consequently uplifting Gold further. From a technical standpoint, Gold is turning increasingly bullish on the daily charts with a breakout above $1260 potentially opening a path higher towards $1260.

EUR/USD has edged higher on Monday, as the pair trades at 1.0860. On the release front, German Ifo Business Climate climbed to 112.3, above the forecast of 111.2 points. In the US, there are no economic indicators, but we’ll hear from two FOMC members – Charles Evans and Robert Kaplan. On Tuesday, the US releases CB Consumer Confidence.

The week has started on a bright note in Europe. German Ifo Business Climate rose to 112. 3 points, its highest level since July 2011. The release underscores high optimism in the business sector, despite rumblings of protectionism from the US and the uncertainty over Brexit. Germany, the largest economy in Europe, continues to post strong numbers, which has been good news for the eurozone economy. Last week’s PMIs pointed to expansion in the manufacturing and service sectors. German and eurozone Manufacturing PMIs both beat their estimates and hit their highest levels since 2011. The markets are keeping a close eye on Germany, which later this week releases CPI, retail sales and unemployment claims. One soft spot in the economy, however, is consumer confidence. GfK German Consumer Climate lost ground for a second straight month, as the indicator dropped to 9.8 in March, its lowest level since November 2016. Eurozone Consumer Confidence remains weak, as the indicator posted a decline of -5 in March, almost unchanged from a month earlier. These soft numbers are largely a result of higher inflation, as consumers are concerned about their reduced purchasing power.

The market euphoria over President Trump’s upset election win is long past. The inquiry into the Trump administration’s links with Russia continues to make headlines, and is another cause for concern for nervous investors. Trump has been in office for over two months, but he has yet to provide any details over even an outline of economic policy. Last week, Trump’s proposed bill to change Obamacare was not even voted on, as the White House could not garner enough support to pass the bill. This debacle will only increase market uneasiness over Trump, and could send the dollar downwards even further.

Oil price is under pressure on Monday, as renewed weakness erased all gains made on Friday. Overall sentiment remains negative, as OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers on meeting during the weekend failed to give clearer information whether agreed production cut will extend in next six months.

Oil price dipped to session low at 47.33 on Monday, putting recent spike lows at $47.08/06 under increased pressure.

Oil is holding in consolidation phase since mid-March, with upside attempts being rejected under psychological $50.00 barrier and subsequent weakness turned focus lower, signaling that negative sentiment persists.

Final close below $47.17 (Fibo 61.8% of $42.19/$55.22 rally) is needed to generate fresh signal of bearish continuation that also requires firm break below $47.08/06 base, to open way towards $46.23 (top of thick weekly Ichimoku cloud).

Broken daily Tenkan-sen that capped recent congestion offers solid resistance at $48.34 and together with broken 200SMA ($48.66) is expected to limit upside attempts.

Res: 47.74, 48.34, 48.66, 49.46
Sup: 47.33, 47.17, 47.08, 46.23

Pullback from 0.7747 peak is holding above rising daily cloud for now, as Friday's probe below cloud top was short-lived and closed at cloud top. Also, trading on Friday ended in tight Doji, signaling that bears off 0.7747 peak may be running out of steam.

The price action today is mainly holding above thickening daily cloud (cloud top lies at 0.7628 today) and repeated close above it would generate initial bullish signal.

Reversal scenario requires sustained break above daily Tenkan-sen line (currently at 0.7650 and near Fibo 38.2% of 0.7747/0.7602 pullback) to ease persisting bearish pressure and generate stronger bullish signal.

Conversely, close below daily cloud would risk fresh extension towards 0.7588 (Fibo 61.8% of 0.7489/0.7747 rally) and expose 200SMA (0.7543).

Res: 0.7641, 0.7650, 0.7692, 0.7717
Sup: 0.7628, 0.7602, 0.7588, 0.7543