Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.90; (P) 113.40; (R1) 114.28; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Choppy fall from 118.65 is seen as a corrective move. In case of another decline, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to complete the correction and bring rebound. On the upside, above 115.61 will target a test on 118.65 first. Break will resume whole rise from 98.97 and target 125.85 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0710; (P) 1.0742 (R1) 1.0765; More.....

With 1.0588 minor support intact, EUR/USD's rebound from 1.0339 could extend higher. Still, such rise is seen as a corrective move and should be limited by 1.0872 resistance. On the downside, below 1.0588 minor support will argue that it's completed and turn bias back to the downside for 1.0339 support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Global financial markets are trading in general risk seeking mode today. At the time of writing, European indices are trading in black with FTSE up 0.4%, DAX up 1.7% and CAC up 1.1%. US futures also point to higher open as S&P 500 and NASDAQ could extend their record runs. Meanwhile, DJIA is head for a take on 20000 handle again. In the currency markets, while the greenback remains generally weak, Aussie is even weaker after disappointing consumer inflation data. On the other hand, recent news regarding Brexit seems to be welcomed by the markets as Sterling surges broadly.

In UK, prime minister Theresa May said she will publish the Brexit plan in a formal "white paper" for the parliament. She said today that "I set out that bold plan for a global Britain last week and I recognize there is an appetite in this house to see that plan set out in a white paper." And, "I can confirm to the house that our plan will be set out in a white paper." The decision came after Supreme court ruled that the Brexit plan must be approved by the Parliament. And opposition Labour Party has expressed they will try to shape to deal with EU even though they will not reject it. May is still set to triggered the so-called Article 50 for Brexit by end of March. Also from UK, UK CBI trends total orders rose to 5 in January.

German Ifo business climate dropped to 109.8 in January,d own from 111.0 and below expectation of 111.3. Expectations gauge dropped notably to 103.2, down from 105.6, below consensus of 105.8. Current assessment gauge, however, rose to 116.9, up from 116.6, met expectations. Ifo chief Clemens Fuest noted that "the German economy made a less confident start to the year." However, Ifo economist Klaus Wohlrabe noted "there is no Trump effect seen in this numbers as export expectations have risen, even in the car industry." Also from Europe, Swiss ZEW expectations rose sharply to 18.5 in January, UBS consumption indicator rose to 1.5 in December.

Released in Australia, CPI rose 0.5% qoq and 1.5% yoy in Q4, below expectation of 0.7% qoq and 1.6% qoq. Down from prior month's 0.7% qoq and 1.3% yoy. RBA trimmed mean CPI rose 0.4% qoq, 1.6% yoy, compares to expectation of 0.5% qoq, 1.6% yoy. RBA weighted mean CPI rose 0.4% qoq, 1.5% yoy, compares to expectation of 0.5% qoq, 1.4% yoy. AUD/USD bottomed at 0.6826 in Feb 2016 and engaged in range trading for nearly a year. While US Dollar was strong, Aussie stayed relatively resilient on fading expectation of more RBA rate cut. But some economists pointed out that today's data are highlighting the downside risks to the country and could prompt RBA to rethink the need to more policy accommodation later in the year. Also from Australia, Westpac leading index rose 0.4% mom in December. In Japan, trade surplus narrowed to JPY 0.36T in December, above expectation of JPY 0.22T.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2422; (P) 1.2480; (R1) 1.2591; More...

GBP/USD's rebound from 1.1986 resumed and reaches as high as 1.2605 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.2774 resistance next. Again, rise from 1.1986 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.1946. We'd expect strong resistance at 1.2774 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.2414 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.1946 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Economic Indicators Update

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2422; (P) 1.2480; (R1) 1.2591; More...

GBP/USD's rebound from 1.1986 resumed and reaches as high as 1.2605 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.2774 resistance next. Again, rise from 1.1986 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.1946. We'd expect strong resistance at 1.2774 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.2414 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.1946 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.31; (P) 141.90; (R1) 143.05; More...

The break of 142.16 support turned resistance suggests that corrective full from 148.42 has completed at 136.44. And, larger rise from 122.36 isn't finished yet. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 145.38 first. Break will target retest of 148.42 high. On the downside, below 140.74 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 136.44. Break will extend the fall from 148.42 to 61.8% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 132.31 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are seen as developing into a corrective pattern. Upside is so far limited below 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42 for setting the medium term range. At this point, we don't expect a break of 122.36 in near term and the corrective pattern would extend for a while. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will target 61.8% retracement at 167.78.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.45; (P) 121.83; (R1) 122.50; More...

EUR/JPY is staying in the correction from 124.08 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Rebound from 109.20 is not finished yet. Break of 124.08 will extend such rise and target 126.09 key resistance next. Meanwhile, below 120.54 will target 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39). We'd expect strong support from there to contain downside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as part of a medium term corrective pattern from 149.76. There is prospect of another rise towards 126.09 key resistance level before completion. But even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance between 126.09 and 141.04 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will pave the way to retest 109.20.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4125; (P) 1.4172; (R1) 1.4201; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. Near term outlook stays bearish as the corrective decline from 1.6587 is still in progress. Below 1.4025 will target 1.3671 key support level. We'd expect downside to be contained there to bring reversal. Meanwhile, above 1.4251 minor resistance will turn focus back to 1.4271 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we'd expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 high first.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8540; (P) 0.8595; (R1) 0.8626; More...

EUR/GBP's break of near term channel is seen as a sign of completion of corrective rise from 0.8303. But it's staying above 0.8449 support and intraday bias stays neutral first. As noted before, rise from 0.8303 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9304. Break of 0.8449 support will indicate that such rise is completed and the third leg has started for 0.8303 and below. Above 0.8851 will extend the rise from 0.8303. But in that case, strong resistance should be seen above 61.8% retracement of 0.9304 to 0.8303 at 0.8922 to limit upside and bring near term reversal.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0724; (P) 1.0737; (R1) 1.0753; More...

EUR/CHF recovers mildly and stays below 1.0762 resistance and 55 day EMA. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. The corrective price actions from 1.0677 affirmed near term bearishness. Break of 1.0677 will extend recent decline to 1.0620 key support level. On the upside, above 1.0762 will turn focus back to 1.0897 resistance. But decisive break there is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish for another fall later.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Such correction is still in progress and retest of 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 could be seen. Sustained trading below 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. Meanwhile, break of 1.0897 resistance will argue that the larger up trend is finally resuming for above 1.1198.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0710; (P) 1.0742 (R1) 1.0765; More.....

No change in EUR/USD's outlook. Rebound from 1.0339 could extend higher. But such rise is seen as a corrective move and should be limited by 1.0872 resistance. On the downside, below 1.0588 minor support will argue that it's completed and turn bias back to the downside for 1.0339 support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box