Sample Category Title

USD/CHF - 1.0116

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Sideways

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 1.0117

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.0102

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 1.0110

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 1.0096

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the greenback found support at 1.0073 yesterday and rebounded since, dollar needs to penetrate resistance at 1.0146 to signal recent erratic rise has resumed and extend further gain to 1.0170-80, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.0200, risk from there remains for another retreat later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Below said support at 1.0073 would bring weakness to 1.0060-65 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0009-1.0146 and previous support), however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon downside would be limited to 1.0035-40 and price should stay well above support at 1.0009, bring rebound later.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.13% against the USD and closed at 0.7583.

Yesterday, data showed that Australia's AiG performance of construction index rose to a level of 53.1 in February, from a reading of 47.7 in the previous month.

LME Copper prices declined 0.9% or $54.0/MT to $5856.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 2.2% or $41.0/MT to $1868.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7603, with the AUD trading 0.26% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

Earlier today, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in a widely expected move, maintained the official cash rate steady at a record low level of 1.5% for a sixth straight meeting. The RBA Governor, Philip Lowe stated that global economic conditions have improved over recent months and that the Australian economy continues to transition after the mining boom. He further added that while the nation's headline inflation is expected to pick up over the course of 2017, there remains considerable variation across the nation's jobs and housing markets.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7571, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7540. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7630, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7658.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7563; (P) 0.7586; (R1) 0.7602; More...

AUD/USD recovers further today but stays below 0.7635 minor resistance. Outlook is unchanged so far. Deeper fall is still in favor as long as 0.7635 minor resistance holds. We're holding on to the view that rebound from 0.7158 is finished at 0.7740. Below 0.7542 and sustained trading below 55 day EMA will pave the way back to 0.7144/7158 support zone. However, firm break of 0.7635 will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 0.7740 instead.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8164) and above.

Yen pared back some gains and turned mixed as risk aversion recedes. Dollar also trades mixed as traders await fresh directions. On the other hand, commodity currencies recovered in general and sentiments stabilized. Mild weakness is seen in Sterling into European session but that's yet to be confirmed. In other markets, Nikkei stays soft for most of the day and ended down -0.18% at 19344.15. That followed profit taking pull back in US overnight as DJIA closed down -0.24% at 20954.34. Gold stabilized at around 1225 and turned sideway after dipping from 1264.9 since last week. WTI crude oil also stabilized at around 53.

RBA stands pat

RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.50% as widely expected. Policymakers turned more upbeat on the economic outlook. as noted in the accompanying statement, "most measures of business and consumer confidence are at, or above, average", whilst "consumption growth was stronger towards the end of the year, although growth in household income remains low". The statement, however, added that "with growth in labour costs remaining subdued, underlying inflation is likely to stay low for some time". RBA also mentioned that the Fed is "expected to increase further" and it is less likely for other major central banks to add more monetary policy easing. More in RBA Maintains Neutral Bias In March. Fed Funds Rate Hike Alleviates Pressure On Aussie Appreciation

AUD/NZD resuming medium term rise

AUD/NZD is so far the biggest mover this week and one of the top movers since last month. The cross took out key medium term resistance level at 1.0769 while confirms resumption of whole rise from 1.0234. More importantly, the development affirms the case that long term correction from 1.1638 (2015 high) has already finished at 1.0234. Current up trend should target 161.8% projection of 1.0234 to .0762 at 1.0323 at 1.1177 next. Firm break there will affirm impulsiveness and would likely send the cross through 1.1638 high to 50% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.0016 at 1.1905 in medium term.

On the data front...

UK BRC retail sales dropped -0.4% yoy in February. German factory orders dropped -7.4% mom in January. Swiss will release foreign currency reserves in European session while Eurozone will release Q4 GDP final. US will release trade balance later in the day. Canada will also release trade balance plus Ivey PMI.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7563; (P) 0.7586; (R1) 0.7602; More...

AUD/USD recovers further today but stays below 0.7635 minor resistance. Outlook is unchanged so far. Deeper fall is still in favor as long as 0.7635 minor resistance holds. We're holding on to the view that rebound from 0.7158 is finished at 0.7740. Below 0.7542 and sustained trading below 55 day EMA will pave the way back to 0.7144/7158 support zone. However, firm break of 0.7635 will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 0.7740 instead.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8164) and above.

Economic Indicators Update

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.32% against the USD and closed at 1.0585, amid increased likelihood of a victory by anti-EU leader, Marine Le Pen in French Presidential election, after former French Prime Minister, Alain Juppe, ruled himself out of the race.

In economic news, the Euro-zone's Sentix investor confidence index jumped to a level of 20.7 in March, surging to its highest level in almost ten years, compared to a reading of 17.4 in the prior month. Meanwhile, markets expected the index to climb to a level of 18.5.

Separately, in Germany, the Markit construction PMI advanced to a level of 54.1 in February, after recording a level of 52.0 in the preceding month.

The US Dollar gained ground against a basket of major currencies, as investors continued to grow optimistic that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month.

On the macro front, the final durable goods orders in US rose more-than-expected by 2.0% in January, after recording a gain of 1.8% in the preliminary print and compared to a revised drop of 0.8% in the previous month. Also, the nation's factory orders climbed 1.2% in January, rising for a second straight month and surpassing investor consensus for an advance of 1.0%. In the prior month, factory orders had advanced 1.3%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.0589, with the EUR trading marginally higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0560, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0531. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0629, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0669.

Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by the release of the Euro-zone's 4Q GDP and Germany's factory orders data for January, slated to release in a few hours. Moreover, the US trade balance figures, will be on investor's radar.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average

GBP/USD - 1.2225

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.2238

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.2258

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.2274

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.2262

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.2220, Target: 1.2340, Stop: 1.2185

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As cable has remained under pressure after meeting renewed selling interest at 1.2301, suggesting near term downside risk remains for retest of 1.2214 (last week’s low), however, break there is needed to confirm recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 1.2200, then towards 1.2170-75 but reckon 1.2150 would hold from here due to loss of downward momentum, bring another rebound later. 

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2258) would bring recovery to 1.2275-80, break there would prolong consolidation and bring another bounce to said resistance at 1.2301 and then 1.2315-20 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2479-1.2214), above there would extend gain to 1.2347 (50% Fibonacci retracement and previous support) but price should falter well below 1.2375-80 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2479-1.2214) and bring another decline. 

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.5% against the USD and closed at 1.2237.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2245, with the GBP trading 0.07% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

Overnight data showed that UK’s BRC retail sales across all sectors declined more-than-expected by 0.4% YoY in February, compared to a fall of 0.6% in the prior month, while market participants were expecting retail sales to ease 0.2%.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2213, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2180. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2286, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2326.

Going ahead, traders would look forward to UK’s Halifax house price index for February, due to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.09% against the JPY and closed at 113.89.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 113.90, with the USD trading slightly higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 113.59, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 113.28. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 114.15, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 114.4.

Moving ahead, investors will focus on Japan’s final 4Q GDP and trade balance data, both scheduled to release overnight.

The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.41% against the CHF and closed at 1.0115.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.0111, with the USD trading a tad lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0077, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0043. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0137, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0163.

With no major economic releases in Switzerland today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic events.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.22% against the CAD and closed at 1.3410.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3390, with the USD trading 0.15% lower against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3365, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3339. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3420, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3449.

Ahead in the day, market participants will closely monitor Canada's Ivey PMI for February and international merchandise trade balance data for January.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.