Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4125; (P) 1.4172; (R1) 1.4201; More...

EUR/AUD breached 1.4251 minor resistance briefly but failed to sustain above. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Near term outlook stays bearish as the corrective decline from 1.6587 is still in progress. Below 1.4025 will target 1.3671 key support level. We'd expect downside to be contained there to bring reversal. Meanwhile, above 1.4251 minor resistance will turn focus back to 1.4271 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we'd expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 high first.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0730; (P) 1.0737; (R1) 1.0746; More...

EUR/CHF drops sharply today but stays in range of 1.0677/0762. Intraday bias remains neutral first. The corrective price actions from 1.0677 affirmed near term bearishness. Break of 1.0677 will extend recent decline to 1.0620 key support level. On the upside, above 1.0762 will turn focus back to 1.0897 resistance. But decisive break there is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish for another fall later.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Such correction is still in progress and retest of 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 could be seen. Sustained trading below 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. Meanwhile, break of 1.0897 resistance will argue that the larger up trend is finally resuming for above 1.1198.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3032; (P) 1.3097; (R1) 1.3134; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral for the moment. At this point, we're still slightly favoring the case that consolidation pattern from 1.3588 is completed with three waves down to 1.3017. Above 1.3387 will target 1.3598 resistance. Break there will extend the whole choppy rise from 1.2460 to next fibonacci level at 1.3838. However, break of 1.3017 will indicate completion of rise from 1.2460 and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. As rise from 1.2460 is seen as a corrective move, we'd look for reversal signal above 1.3838. Meanwhile, break of 1.3017 will likely start the third leg to 1.2460 and below.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7526; (P) 0.7562; (R1) 0.7610; More...

Upside momentum in AUD/USD continues to diminish with bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In case of another rise, we'd expect upside to be limited by 0.7777/7833 resistance zone to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7448 will indicate that rebound from 0.7158 is completed and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7144 key support level.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it's likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case. We'll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.87; (P) 113.43; (R1) 113.82; More...

USD/JPY is staying in tight range above 112.51 and intraday bias remains neutral. Choppy fall from 118.65 is seen as a corrective move. In case of another decline, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to complete the correction and bring rebound. On the upside, above 115.61 will target a test on 118.65 first. Break will resume whole rise from 98.97 and target 125.85 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9963; (P) 0.9994; (R1) 1.0022; More.....

With 1.0121 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is still expected in USD/CHF. As noted before, rise from 0.9443 has completed at 1.0342 already, after failing to sustain above 1.0327 key resistance. Fall from there would now target 61.8% retracement of 0.9443 to 1.0342 at 0.9786 and below. On the upside, break of 1.0121 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rejection from 1.0327 resistance suggests that consolidation pattern from there is still in progress. Fall from 1.0342 is seen as the third leg and retest of 0.9443/9548 support zone could be seen. But we'd expect strong support from there to contain downside. At this point, we're still expect the larger rally to resume later to 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0716; (P) 1.0742 (R1) 1.0774; More.....

No change in EUR/USD's outlook. Rebound from 1.0339 could extend higher with 1.0588 minor support intact. Still, such rise is seen as a corrective move and should be limited by 1.0872 resistance. On the downside, below 1.0588 minor support will argue that it's completed and turn bias back to the downside for 1.0339 support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2535; (P) 1.2586; (R1) 1.2683; More...

GBP/USD reaches as high as 1.2662 so far as rebound from 1.1986 extends. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.2774 resistance. Again, rise from 1.1986 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.1946. We'd expect strong resistance at 1.2774 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.2414 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.1946 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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Risk appetite continued in the market as US equities extended record run. DJIA finally took out 20000 handle to close at 20068.52, up 155.80 pts or 0.78%. S&P 500 closed up 18.3 pts, or 0.80%, at 2298.37. NASDAQ ended at 5656.34, up 55.38 pts or 0.99%. All three indices closed at new historical highs. Positive sentiments carried on in Asian session with Nikkei up 1.8% to above 19400 Notable strength was also seen in treasury yields. 10 year yield gained 0.052 to close at 2.523 while 30 year yield rose 0.052 to 3.108. However, the greenback continued to lag behind with Dollar index dipping through 100 handle to as low as 99.79. The index is trying to regain 100 handle at the time of writing but lacks momentum so far. In the currency markets, dollar remains the weakest major currency this week while Sterling is the strongest.

Stock markets up trend resumed on expectation that US president Donald Trump would gradually implement the pro-growth policies he promised. Sentiment was also lifted by encouraging earnings reports. As soon as he has been sworn in, Trump signed a series of executive orders with the latest one on Keystone and Dakota pipelines. The action aims at facilitating TransCanada to build the Keystone XL pipeline and for Energy Transfer Partners to build the final uncompleted portion of the Dakota Access pipeline. A report by McClatchy revealed that the President and his team has compiled a list of about 50 infrastructure projects nationwide, totaling at least USD 137.5b. According to the preliminary list provided to the National Governor's Association, the projects include to renewal of the country's highways, airports, dams and bridges. A similar list was revealed by the Star. The market was thrilled by the news with DJIA's material sector index gaining over 2%.

Some economists attributed the breakdown in correlation between treasury yield and Dollar to concerns over Trump's protectionism. Some pointed to the US-Japan trade conflicts back in 1990s when Dollar was weak despite higher US interest rates. But at this point, it's still too early to confirm the divergence in yield and Dollar. Technically, the benchmark 10 year yield is held below key near term resistance at 2.621. Dollar index is holding above key structural support at 99.43. Technically, both can be seen as staying in consolidative mode. As stocks are gathering bullish momentum, the picture will likely be cleared soon.

On the data front, New Zealand CPI rose 0.4% qoq, 1.3% yoy in Q4. Japan corporate service price rose 0.4% yoy in December. Swiss trade surplus narrowed to CHF 2.72b in December. German Gfk consumer sentiment rose to 10.2 in February. UK Q4 GDP will be the main focus in European session. UK BBA mortgage approval and CBI reported sales will also be featured. From US, jobless claims, wholesale inventories, new home sales and leading indicators will be released.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2535; (P) 1.2586; (R1) 1.2683; More...

GBP/USD reaches as high as 1.2662 so far as rebound from 1.1986 extends. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.2774 resistance. Again, rise from 1.1986 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.1946. We'd expect strong resistance at 1.2774 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.2414 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.1946 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Economic Indicators Update

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9971; (P) 0.9994; (R1) 1.0032; More.....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for the moment. As noted before, rise from 0.9443 has completed at 1.0342 already, after failing to sustain above 1.0327 key resistance. Fall from there would now target 61.8% retracement of 0.9443 to 1.0342 at 0.9786 and below. On the upside, break of 1.0121 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rejection from 1.0327 resistance suggests that consolidation pattern from there is still in progress. Fall from 1.0342 is seen as the third leg and retest of 0.9443/9548 support zone could be seen. But we'd expect strong support from there to contain downside. At this point, we're still expect the larger rally to resume later to 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

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