Daily Pivots: (S1) 118.85; (P) 119.36; (R1) 120.13; More...

EUR/JPY's correction fall from 124.08 resumed and dived to as low as 118.59. At this point, we'd still expect strong support from 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39) to contain downside and bring rebound. Break of 121.32 resistance will confirm that the correction has completed and turn bias back to the upside for 123.30/124.08 resistance zone. However, sustained trading below 118.45 will invalidate our view and bring deeper fall to 114.88 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as part of a medium term corrective pattern from 149.76. There is prospect of another rise towards 126.09 key resistance level before completion. But even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance between 126.09 and 141.04 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Nonetheless, decisive break of 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39) will argue that rise from 109.20 is completed and turn outlook bearish for 61.8% retracement at 114.88 and below.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8423; (P) 0.8457; (R1) 0.8512; More...

EUR/GBP recovered after hitting 0.8402 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. But near term outlook stays cautiously bearish with 0.8590 resistance holds. Fall from 0.8851 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9304. Below 0.8402 will target 0.8303 support first. Break will confirm our view and target 0.8116 key cluster support level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3637; (P) 1.3693; (R1) 1.3761; More...

EUR/AUD breached 1.3671 key support level but recovered quickly. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. We'd still viewing fall from 1.6587 as a corrective move. And strong support is expected from 1.3671 to contain downside and break rebound. Break of 1.3900 resistance will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 1.4025 resistance and above. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our view.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. We'd expect strong support from 1.3671 key level to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and turn outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0641; (P) 1.0659; (R1) 1.0684; More...

EUR/CHF recovered but stays in range below 1.0706. Intraday bias remains neutral first. With 1.0706 resistance intact,deeper decline is expected. Firm break of 1.0620 key support level will extend the larger decline from 1.1198 to 1.0485 fibonacci level. However, break of 1.0706 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.0749 resistance will raise the chance of medium reversal.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Such correction is still in progress. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. On the upside, break of 1.0897 resistance is needed to confirm completion of such fall. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish.

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Currency pair EUR/USD

The EUR/USD indeed made a bullish bounce yesterday at the support Fibonacci levels of wave X (blue). Price could now be building a complex WXY correction within a larger wave 2 (purple) unless price breaks below the 138.2% Fib level (invalidation). The Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (purple) could also act as reversal spot and remains valid unless price breaks above the 100% level of wave 2 vs 1 (purple).

The EUR/USD could be building a bullish ABC (green) within wave Y (blue) but a break below the 100% Fibonacci level of wave B vs A invalidates the structure.

Currency pair GBP/USD

The GBP/USD retraced back the support level (blue line) of the contracting triangle chart pattern after breaking above it (orange dotted). A bullish bounce could see price potentially retest the larger resistance trend line (brown) as part of wave C (blue).

The GBP/USD indeed made a bearish retracement yesterday which bounced at the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (purple). A bullish continuation above resistance (red) could see price pick up more momentum towards the Fibonacci targets of wave C (orange). A break below the 100% level of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates the wave structure.

Currency pair USD/JPY

The USD/JPY is probably in a wave 1-2 (blue) unless there is a break below the 100% level of wave 2 vs 1. A larger ABC (brown) seems to be taking place within wave 2 (blue). A wave 2 (blue) correction typically last between 100% and 161.8% of wave 1 (see bottom scale).

The USD/JPY could be completing a bearish ABC (brown) zigzag within wave 2 (blue). There could be another ABC zigzag (orange) within wave that wave B (brown) but the wave B could also have already been completed and a break above the red line invalidates wave B (brown). A break below support (green) could price test but probably not break the next support (blue) which would probably complete the ABC (brown) within wave 2 (blue).

EURUSD

The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday bottomed at 1.0493 but closed higher at 1.0557. The bias is neutral in nearest term probably with a little bullish bias testing 1.0600/20 area. Immediate support is seen around 1.0520/00 which remains a good place to buy with a tight stop loss as a clear break and daily close below that area would expose 1.0400 – 1.0350 region. On the upside, a clear break and daily close above 1.0600 would expose 1.0680 – 1.0700 area. Overall I remain neutral.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD had another indecisive movement yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. As you can see on my H1 chart below price has been moving sideways without clear direction suggests a consolidation phase. Immediate support is seen around 1.2400. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2340 area. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.2500. A clear break and daily close above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.2580 area. Overall I remain neutral.

USDJPY

The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall as long as stay below 115.60 I still prefer a bearish scenario. Immediate resistance is seen around 113.50. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 114.00 or higher. Immediate support is seen around 112.90. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 112.50 or lower.

USDCHF

The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday topped at 1.0140 but closed lower at 1.0104. The bias is neutral in nearest term probably with a little bearish bias testing 1.0050 area. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.0140 (yesterday’s high). A clear break and daily close above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.0200 region. Overall I remain neutral.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3111; (P) 1.3160; (R1) 1.3211; More...

USD/CAD is still staying in range below 1.3211 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.3211 resistance will argue that fall from 1.3598 has completed at 1.2968. And more importantly, rise from 1.2460 is still in progress. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.3598 and above. On the downside, below 1.2968 will revive the case that rise from 1.2460 is completed and turn outlook bearish for this low. Overall, choppy rise from 1.2460 is still seen as a corrective move.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg could be completed at 1.3598 and fall from there is tentatively seen as the third leg. Break of 1.2460 will target 50% retracement of 0.9460 to 1.4689 at 1.2075 before completing the correction. In case of another rise, we'd look for reversal signal above 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7673; (P) 0.7694; (R1) 0.7721; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Another rise cannot be ruled out with 0.7605 minor support intact. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, we'd expect strong resistance from 0.7777/7833 resistance zone to limit upside and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7605 support will indicate that rise from 0.7158 has completed already and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7550) first.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8186) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0508; (P) 1.0541 (R1) 1.0589; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.0828 has just resumed. Such decline is seen as resuming the larger down trend. Further fall should be seen to retest 1.0339 low first. Break will confirm our bearish view and target parity. On the downside, break of 1.0678 is needed to confirm completion of fall from 1.0828. Otherwise, outlook will remain mildly bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2406; (P) 1.2457; (R1) 1.2499; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment as it's staying in range of 1.2346/2705. Price actions from 1.1946 are viewed as a consolidation pattern, with rise from 1.1986 as the third leg. In case of another rise, we'd expect upside to be limited by 1.2774 to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.2346 will revive the case that such consolidation is completed at 1.2705 already. In that case, intraday bias will turn back to the downside for retesting 1.1946 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.