Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.12; (P) 141.49; (R1) 142.14; More...

GBP/JPY is trading in range of 138.53/142.79 and intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Overall, price actions from 148.42 are seen as a corrective pattern. Below 138.53 will bring deeper fall, possibly through 136.44 support. But strong support could be seen at 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to bring rebound. Above 142.79 will turn bias back to the upside for 144.77 and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern with a test on 122.36 low next. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement at 167.78.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.45; (P) 119.88; (R1) 120.20; More...

EUR/JPY is still bounded in range of 119.32/121.32. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, below 119.32 will extend the corrective fall from 124.08. In that case, we'd expect strong support from 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 121.32 minor resistance should revive the case that such correction is completed. And, intraday bias would then be turned back to the upside for 123.30/124.08 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as part of a medium term corrective pattern from 149.76. There is prospect of another rise towards 126.09 key resistance level before completion. But even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance between 126.09 and 141.04 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Nonetheless, decisive break of 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39) will argue that rise from 109.20 is completed and turn outlook bearish for 61.8% retracement at 114.88 and below.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0630; (P) 1.0639; (R1) 1.0646; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/CHF and outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias stays neutral first. With 1.0706 resistance intact,deeper decline is expected. Firm break of 1.0620 key support level will extend the larger decline from 1.1198 to 1.0485 fibonacci level. However, break of 1.0706 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.0749 resistance will raise the chance of medium reversal.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Such correction is still in progress. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. On the upside, break of 1.0897 resistance is needed to confirm completion of such fall. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0502; (P) 1.0558 (R1) 1.0591; More.....

EUR/USD is staying above 1.0520 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. With 1.0713 minor resistance intact, we're holding on to our bearish view. That is, corrective rise from 1.0339 has completed at 1.0828 already. Below 1.0520 will target 1.0339 first. Break will extend the larger down trend to parity. However, above 1.0713 will dampen our view and turn focus back to 1.0828 instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2422; (P) 1.2451; (R1) 1.2502; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment as it's staying in range of 1.2346/2705. Price actions from 1.1946 are viewed as a consolidation pattern, with rise from 1.1986 as the third leg. In case of another rise, we'd expect upside to be limited by 1.2774 to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.2346 will revive the case that such consolidation is completed at 1.2705 already. In that case, intraday bias will turn back to the downside for retesting 1.1946 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0044; (P) 1.0075; (R1) 1.0127; More.....

USD/CHF's upside is still limited below 1.0118 resistance and intraday bias remains neutral. Near term outlook stays cautiously bullish as long as 0.9929 minor support holds. Fall from 1.0342 could have finished at 0.9860 already. Above 1.0118 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.0342. However, break of 0.9929 will likely extend the decline from 1.0342 through 0.9860 low.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection from 1.0327 resistance argues that USD/CHF is staying in a medium term sideway pattern. In any case, decisive break of 1.0342 resistance is needed to confirm underlying strength. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral in the pair first. In case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.9443/9548 support zone. Meanwhile firm break of 1.0342 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.23; (P) 113.50; (R1) 113.94; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment as it's bounded in range of 111.58/114.94. Corrective fall from 118.65 could extend lower through 111.58. But we'd still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 114.94 resistance should confirm completion of pull back from 118.65. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 118.65.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7652; (P) 0.7671; (R1) 0.7693; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Another rise cannot be ruled out with 0.7605 minor support intact. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, we'd expect strong resistance from 0.7777/7833 resistance zone to limit upside and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7605 support will indicate that rise from 0.7158 has completed already and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7544) first.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8186) and above.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3106; (P) 1.3135; (R1) 1.3172; More...

USD/CAD's recovery lost momentum ahead of 1.3211 resistance and retreated. The pair is still bounded in range of 1.2968/3211 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.3211 resistance will argue that fall from 1.3598 has completed at 1.2968. And more importantly, rise from 1.2460 is still in progress. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.3598 and above. On the downside, below 1.2968 will revive the case that rise from 1.2460 is completed and turn outlook bearish for this low. Overall, choppy rise from 1.2460 is still seen as a corrective move.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg could be completed at 1.3598 and fall from there is tentatively seen as the third leg. Break of 1.2460 will target 50% retracement of 0.9460 to 1.4689 at 1.2075 before completing the correction. In case of another rise, we'd look for reversal signal above 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838.

US indices closed at new record highs again as led by defense and energy sectors. In particular, WTI crude oil surged to as high as 54.68 and is showing sign of range breakout. That helped lift DJIA up 118.95 or 0.58% to close at 20743.00. S&P 500 gained 14.22 pts or 0.60% to close at 2365.38. NASDAQ also rose 27.37 pts or 0.47% to close at 5865.95. Dollar index was lifted by hawkish comments from Fed officials and reached as high as 101.60. However, the index lost momentum ahead of 101.76 near term resistance. Strength in the greenback was limited by lackluster performance in treasury yields. 10 year yield hit as high as 2.461 but pared back nearly all gains to close at 2.427, just up 0.002. Range trading in treasury yield would likely limit momentum in the greenback. Market's focus will turn to FOMC minutes while continue the day after day waiting for Donald Trump's announcement on tax reforms and other fiscal policies.

FOMC minutes to be a non-event

The minutes of January 31 - February 1 FOMC meeting will catch most attention today. Some economists expected the minutes to show that policy markers were getting more comfortable on inflation outlook. That is, as the FOMC statement noted, "inflation will rise to 2 percent over the medium term." But other than that, the minutes could provide little new information. In particular, some FOMC members have openly noted that fiscal policies, due to the lack of details, were not taken into account in their decisions and projections. Today's FOMC minutes release could turn out to be a non-event. Markets would probably have more reactions to comments from Fed governor Jerome Powell. Currently Fed fund futures are pricing in 22.1% chance of a March hike and 74.8% chance of a hike by June.

German Ifo a focus in European session

Elsewhere, Australia Westpac leading index rose 0.0% mom in January. Wage cost index rose 0.5% qoq in Q4 while construction work done dropped -0.2%. German Ifo business climate will be a focus in European session. UK will release Q4 GDP revision, Swiss to release ZEW expectations and Eurozone will release CPI final. Later in the day, Canada will release retail sales while US will release existing home sales.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3106; (P) 1.3135; (R1) 1.3172; More...

USD/CAD's recovery lost momentum ahead of 1.3211 resistance and retreated. The pair is still bounded in range of 1.2968/3211 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.3211 resistance will argue that fall from 1.3598 has completed at 1.2968. And more importantly, rise from 1.2460 is still in progress. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.3598 and above. On the downside, below 1.2968 will revive the case that rise from 1.2460 is completed and turn outlook bearish for this low. Overall, choppy rise from 1.2460 is still seen as a corrective move.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg could be completed at 1.3598 and fall from there is tentatively seen as the third leg. Break of 1.2460 will target 50% retracement of 0.9460 to 1.4689 at 1.2075 before completing the correction. In case of another rise, we'd look for reversal signal above 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838.

Economic Indicators Update