Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0722; (P) 1.0746 (R1) 1.0787; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for 1.0828 resistance and above. Overall, rise from 1.0339 is seen as a corrective move. Hence, we'd upside to be limited by 100% projection of 1.0339 to 1.0828 from 1.0494 at 1.0983 to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 1.0599 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0494 support.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2272; (P) 1.2324; (R1) 1.2408; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside and rebound form 1.2108 continues. Whole consolidation pattern from 1.1946 is still in progress. Stronger rise could be seen to 1.2705/2774 resistance zone next. On the downside, below 1.2240 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2108 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9940; (P) 0.9975; (R1) 1.0000; More.....

USD/CHF's fall from 1.0169 continues and intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.9860. Corrective rise from 0.9860 should have completed at 1.0169 and fall from 1.0342 is likely resuming. Break of 0.9860 will target 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9860 from 1.0169 at 0.9687. On the upside, 1.0018 minor resistance will turn bias neutral. But outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.0169 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection from 1.0327 resistance argues that USD/CHF is staying in a medium term sideway pattern. In any case, decisive break of 1.0342 resistance is needed to confirm underlying strength. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral in the pair first. In case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.9443/9548 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.94; (P) 113.24; (R1) 113.58; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 111.58 low. Current development argues that consolidation from 111.58 has completed with three waves to 115.49. And larger decline from 118.65 is resuming. Break of 111.58 will target 61.8% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 111.12. That coincides with 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. We'd tentatively expect strong support from there to bring rebound. But firm break there will target 100% projection at 108.42. On the upside, outlook will stays bearish as long as 115.49 holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8665; (P) 0.8712; (R1) 0.8756; More...

EUR/GBP is staying in consolidation below 0.8786 and intraday bias remains neutral first. We'd continue to expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 0.8402 to 0.8786 at 0.8639 to contain downside. Above 0.8786 will target 0.8851 resistance and above. However, price actions from 0.8303 are seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9304. Hence, we'd expect strong resistance from 100% projection of 0.8303 to 0.8851 from 0.8402 at 0.8950 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3934; (P) 1.3986; (R1) 1.4071; More...

EUR/AUD is holding on to 1.3874 minor support and recovered. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. At this point, we're still favoring the case of medium term trend reversal defending key support level at 1.3671, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Above 1.4183 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.4289 resistance. Sustained break there will affirm our bullish view and target 1.4721 key resistance next. However, break of 1.3874 will dampen our view and turn bias to the downside for 1.3624 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. We'd expect strong support from 1.3671 key level to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and turn outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0690; (P) 1.0718; (R1) 1.0753; More...

EUR/CHF breached 1.0689 support briefly but recovered quickly since then. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. With 1.0689 minor support intact, we continue to favor the case of trend reversal, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, after defending 1.0620 key support level. That is, correction from 1.1198 could have completed. Above 1.0823 will target 1.0897 resistance next. However, firm break of 1.0689 support will dampen our view and turn focus back to 1.0629 low again.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 1.0897 resistance should confirm that it's completed. And in that case, larger up trend is resuming for another high above 1.1198. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.36; (P) 121.70; (R1) 122.27; More...

EUR/JPY recovered after breaching 121.18 resistance turned support and intraday bias remains neutral. No change in the bullish outlook for the moment and another rise is expected. Above 122.88 will target 124.08. Decisive break there will extend larger rise from 109.20 and target 126.09 key resistance next. However, firm break of 121.18 will likely extend the whole corrective pattern fro 124.08 with another falling leg towards 118.23 low again.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that medium term rise from 109.20 is still in progress. Focus is now on 126.09 key resistance level. Sustained break will confirm completion of the whole decline from 149.76. And rise from 109.20 is of the same degree as the fall from 149.76. In such case, further rally would be seen to 104.04 resistance and possibly above before topping. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09 will extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.209 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.73; (P) 139.67; (R1) 140.25; More...

GBP/JPY had another attempt at 138.53 support but rebounded from there again. The cross is staying in range of 138.53/142.79 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Price actions from 148.42 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. On the downside, break of 138.53 support will bring deeper decline to 136.44 support and possibly below. However, we'd expect strong support at 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 142.79 will turn bias back to the upside for 144.77 and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern with a test on 122.36 low next. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement at 167.78.

Dollar is set to end the week as the worst performing major currency as post FOMC weakness continues. Meanwhile, Euro follows as the second weakest one after the positive impact of ECB and then Dutch election fades. Meanwhile, Australia dollar is leading the way high on solid risk appetite. And that is followed by Sterling which was lifted by hawkish BoE minutes yesterday. The forex markets are mixed elsewhere.

In other markets, the boost from FOMC to stocks was rather short lived as major indices ended mixed overnight. DJIA closed down -15.55 pts, or -0.07%, kept well below historical high at 21169.11. S&P 500 also closed down -3.88 pts, or -0.16%, at 2381.38, well below historical high at 2400.98. NASDAQ, on the other hand, attempted to hit record high at 5911.79 but reached 5911.48 only and closed at 5900.76, up 0.71 pts or 0.01%.

Treasury yields stabilized with TNX ended up 0.014 at 2.522. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil extends this week's consolidation and hovers around 49. Gold rebounded strongly on Dollar weakness and is back at around 1230.

ECB Nowotny: Could raise deposit rate earlier than prime rate

There has been some recent speculations that ECB would raise interest rate before ending the quantitative easing program. ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny said in a newspaper interview that the central bank "will decide when the time comes". He explained that "there is the American model to end the bond purchases first. Whether this model can be applied to Europe on a like-for-like basis would need to be discussed." Meanwhile, "the structure of the interest rates does not always need to remain constant." And, "the ECB could also raise the deposit rate earlier than the prime rate."

The result of the Dutch elections was welcomed by European leaders in general. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker responded to the result of Dutch election and said that "the people of the Netherlands voted for "free and tolerant societies in a prosperous Europe". German Chancellor Merkel noted that she believed "many people are [glad] that a high turnout led to a very pro-European result". Centrist French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron described it as "a breakthrough for the extreme right is not a foregone conclusion". Dutch Mark Rutte retained power and his pro-EU centre-right VVD remained the biggest party. Meanwhile, the anti-EU PVV party received just 13% of the vote share. The next closely-watched political event is the French presidential election is scheduled on April 23.

The Queen gave Royal Assent to Brexit bill

In UK, the Queen has given her Royal Assent to the Brexit bill. And, Prime minister Theresa May is reading to trigger Article 50 for Brexit negotiation with EU. Brexit Secretary David Davis said that "by the end of the month we will invoke Article 50, allowing us to start our negotiations to build a positive new partnership with our friends and neighbors in the European Union, as well as taking a step out into the world as a truly Global Britain."

Sterling remains supported by the hawkish BoE minutes released yesterday. To our, and the market's, surprise, BOE's Kristin Forbes voted in favor of a 25 bps rate hike. While this had not altered the decision of keeping the Bank rate unchanged at 0.25%, the overall message sent to the public has now become more hawkish. The members voted unanimously to leave the government bond purchases at 435B pound and corporate bond purchases at up to 10B pound. Adding to the rising speculations of tightening is the minutes, which suggested that some of those who voted for unchanged policy believed 'it would take relatively little further upside news on the prospects for activity or inflation for them to consider that a more immediate reduction in policy support might be warranted'. More in Forbes' Dissent Would Unlikely Speed Up BOE's Rate Hike Schedule

On the data front...

New Zealand business NZ manufacturing index rose to 55.2 in February. Eurozone will release Trade balance in European session. In US session, Canada will release manufacturing shipments. US will release industrial production, capacity utilization, U of Michigan sentiment and leading indicators.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.73; (P) 139.67; (R1) 140.25; More...

GBP/JPY had another attempt at 138.53 support but rebounded from there again. The cross is staying in range of 138.53/142.79 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Price actions from 148.42 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. On the downside, break of 138.53 support will bring deeper decline to 136.44 support and possibly below. However, we'd expect strong support at 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 142.79 will turn bias back to the upside for 144.77 and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern with a test on 122.36 low next. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement at 167.78.

Economic Indicators Update