Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6760; (P) 0.6779; (R1) 0.6790; More...

AUD/USD's rally from 0.6348 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Decisive break of 0.6798 resistance will target 0.6870 resistance next, with prospecting of resuming whole rise from 0.6269. On the downside, below 0.6696 support turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back instead.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.6269 as the third leg. Firm break of 0.6798/6870 resistance zone will target 0.7156 resistance. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen from 0.6169/6361 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3457; (P) 1.3491; (R1) 1.3519; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside as fall from 1.3946 is in progress. Firm break of 1.3477 support will pave the way to 1.3091/3176 support zone. On the upside, above 1.3570 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 1.3976 (2022 high) is extending with another falling leg. While deeper decline could be seen, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in favor to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 189.80; (P) 190.30; (R1) 191.08; More...

GBP/JPY is still bounded in range trading below 191.99 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 191.99 will target 61.8% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 197.35, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 208.09. On the downside, however, firm break of 187.84 support will argue that rebound from 180.00 has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 180.00 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Current development suggests that the first leg has completed and the range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.72; (P) 161.10; (R1) 161.70; More....

EUR/JPY is still bounded in range trading below 163.86 and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 163.86 will target 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 167.38, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 175.41. On the downside, however, firm break of 159.80 support will suggest that the rebound from 154.40 has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for 154.40 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Current development suggests that the first leg has completed. The range of consolidation should be seen between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8450; (P) 0.8463; (R1) 0.8475; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside despite some loss of momentum as seen in 4H MACD. Fall from 0.8624 is in progress for retesting 0.8382 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, above 0.8491 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.8382 is strong, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. As long as 0.8643 resistance holds, down trend from 0.9267 could still resume through 0.8382 at a later stage towards 0.8201 (2022 low). However, firm break of 0.8643 will indicate that such down trend has completed, and turn outlook bullish for 0.8764 resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6453; (P) 1.6485; (R1) 1.6514; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.6435) will argue that rise from 1.5996 has completed at 1.7180 Deeper fall would then be seen back to this support. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current levels, followed by break of 1.6580 resistance, will argue that pullback from 1.7180 has completed already. Intraday bias will then be back on the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 1.7062 medium term top should have completed at 1.5996. Larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is resuming. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5996 at 1.7715. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will dampen this bullish view and extend medium term range trading.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9442; (P) 0.9467; (R1) 0.9482; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.9569) will pave the way back to 0.9972/0.9928 resistance zone. However, decisive break of 0.9448 will suggest rejection by 55 D EMA, and turn bias back to the downside for 0.9209 low.

In the bigger picture, medium term corrective pattern from 0.9407 (2022 low) might have completed with three waves to 0.9928. Decisive break of 0.9252 (2023 low) will confirm long term down trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9928 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

GBPUSD recently broke above previous peak on 7.14.2023 high at 1.3143 and shows a higher high bullish sequence from 9.26.2022 low. This leaves no doubt about the right side and direction of the pair which is higher. Near term, rally from 4.22.2024 low is ongoing as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 4.22.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 1.3045 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 1.266. Pair has turned higher and broken above wave 1 suggesting wave 3 is in progress.

Up from wave 2, wave (i) ended at 1.277 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 1.272. Pair extended higher again from there. Up from wave (ii), wave i ended at 1.287 and pullback in wave ii ended at 1.2798. Pair extended higher in wave iii towards 1.313 and wave iv pullback ended at 1.307. Final leg wave v ended at 1.323 which completed wave (iii). Expect pair to end wave (iv) and rally 1 more leg to end wave (v) which should complete wave ((i)). Then it should pullback in wave ((ii)) to correct cycle from 8.8.2024 low in 3, 7, 11 swing before the rally resumes. Near term, as far as pivot at 1.266 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.

GBPUSD 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

GBPUSD Elliott Wave Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ot68QeGDPvo

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD rallied above the 1.1050 and 1.1120 resistance levels.
• A major bullish trend line is forming with support at 1.1120 on the 4-hour chart.
• Oil prices started a steady increase above the $76.00 resistance.
• GBP/USD surpassed the 1.3050 and 1.3080 resistance levels.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro remained strong and climbed above the 1.1050 resistance against the US Dollar. EUR/USD bulls took control and pushed the pair above the 1.1120 pivot level.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above the 1.1100 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). It even surpassed the 1.1150 level and tested 1.1200.

The pair is now consolidating gains below 1.1200. Immediate support is near the 1.1120 level or the 23.6% Fib retracement of the upward move from the 1.0775 swing low to the 1.1200 high.

There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1120 on the same chart. The next major support sits near the 1.1040 level. A downside break below the 1.1040 level could set the pace for a larger decline.

The next major support is near the 1.0980 level or the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). It is close to the 50% Fib retracement of the upward move from the 1.0775 swing low to the 1.1200 high. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 1.0920 support level.

On the upside, the pair could face resistance near the 1.1185 level. The first key resistance sits near the 1.1200 level. A clear move above the 1.1200 level could set the pace for a move toward the 1.1250 level.

Looking at GBP/USD, the pair rallied above the 1.3000 level and now seems to be consolidating gains for more upsides.

Economic Releases

• US Housing Price Index for June 2024 (MoM) - Forecast +0.2%, versus 0% previous.

DOW managed to break into new intraday record overnight before pulling back slightly, but it was enough to secure a fresh record close. The excitement around the index's performance is palpable, yet the overall market sentiment might hinge on Nvidia's upcoming earnings report on Wednesday. Investors are keen to see the second-quarter results to assess the ongoing strength of the AI trade, which has been a significant driver of market gains.

Technically, doubts persist regarding the Dow's ability to sustain its record-breaking momentum. Firm break below 40584.47 support would indicate that a short term top was formed, and set up deeper pull back to 55 D EMA (now at 39893.83), or around 40k psychological level, before DOW decides on its next move.