Sample Category Title

EUR/USD's rally continued last week and the strong break of 1.1138 resistance argues that larger up trend may be resuming. Initial bias is on the upside this week for t 161.8% projection of 1.0665 to 1.0947 from 1.0776 at 1.1232, and then 1.1274 high. On the downside, below 1.1097 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, break of 1.1138 resistance indicates that corrective pattern from 1.1274 has completed at 1.0665 already. Decisive break of 1.1274 (2023 high) will confirm whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0665 at 1.1740. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0947 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 (2022 low). The strong break of 55 M EMA (now at 1.1018) is taken as the first sign of bullish trend reversal. But still, firm break of 1.2348 structural resistance is needed to confirm. Otherwise, price actions from 0.9534 could still develop into a consolidation pattern.

USD/JPY gyrated lower last week even though momentum is a bit unconvincing. Still, the development suggests that rebound from 141.67 has completed at 149.35, after rejection by 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41. Initial bias is on the downside this week for retesting 141.67 low. Firm break there will resume the whole fall from 161.94 to 140.25 support next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 149.35 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 161.94 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Deeper decline could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26, which is close to 140.25 support. In any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 149.59) holds. Nevertheless, firm break of 55 W EMA will suggest that the range for medium term corrective pattern is already set.

In the long term picture, it's still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. However, a medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 132.73).

GBP/USD's rally accelerated higher last week and the break of 1.3141 resistance confirms larger up trend resumption. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 100% projection of 1.2298 to 1.3043 from 1.2664 at 1.3409. On the downside, below 1.3075 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low) is resuming. Next target is 38.2% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3141 from 1.2298 at 1.3364. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2664 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the long term picture, as long as 1.2298 support holds, rise from 1.0351 long term bottom is expected to continue. The strong break of 55 EMA (now at 1.2814) is a sign of bullish trend reversal. Yet, break of 1.4248 structural resistance is needed confirm. Otherwise, price actions from 1.0351 could just be part of a consolidation pattern.

USD/CHF's extended decline last week suggests that rebound from 0.8431 has completed at 0.8747, after rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734. Initial bias is on the downside this week for retesting 0.8431 support first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.9223 towards 0.8332 low. On the upside, above 0.8540 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.9223 as the second leg. Strong support could be seen from 0.8332 to bring rebound. Yet, overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9243 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.8332, however, will resume larger down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low ) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Fall from 1.0342 (2016 high) is seen as the second leg. Rejection by 55 M EMA suggest that this fall is in progress. Break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 at 0.8317 will pave the way back to 0.7065.

AUD/USD's rally continued last week despite interim retreat. Initial bias is on the upside this week with focus on 0.6798 resistance. Firm break there will extend the rally from 0.6348 to 0.6870 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.6696 support turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back instead.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.6340 is likely developing into another rising leg. Firm break of 0.6798/6870 resistance zone will target 0.7156 resistance. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen from 0.6169/6361 to bring rebound.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It's unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

USD/CAD's steep decline and strong break of 1.3588 support argues that while rise from 1.3176 has completed already. Fall from 1.3946 is seen as another falling leg inside medium term range pattern. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.3477 support. Firm break there will target 1.3091/3176 support zone. On the upside, above 1.3617 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 1.3976 (2022 high) is extending with another falling leg. While deeper decline could be seen, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in favor to resume at a later stage.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.

GBP/JPY stayed in sideway trading below 191.99 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 191.99 will target 61.8% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 197.35, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 208.09. On the downside, however, firm break of 187.84 support will argue that rebound from 180.00 has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 180.00 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Current development suggests that the first leg has completed and the range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09.

In the longer term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 208.09 is at least a medium term top. It's still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But it's at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 169.35).

EUR/JPY stayed in sideway trading below 163.86 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 163.86 will target 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 167.38, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 175.41. On the downside, however, firm break of 159.80 support will suggest that the rebound from 154.40 has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for 154.40 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Current development suggests that the first leg has completed. The range of consolidation should be seen between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high.

In the long term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 175.41 is at least a medium term top. It's still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. But a medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 145.56).

EUR/GBP's steep decline last week suggest that rebound from 0.8382 has completed 0.8624 already, after rejection by 0.8643 resistance. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 0.8382 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, above 0.8507 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.8382 is strong, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. As long as 0.8643 resistance holds, down trend from 0.9267 could still resume through 0.8382 at a later stage towards 0.8201 (2022 low). However, firm break of 0.8643 will indicate that such down trend has completed, and turn outlook bullish for 0.8764 resistance next.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD gyrated lower last week despite weak downside momentum. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.6432) will argue that rise from 1.5996 has completed. Deeper fall would then be seen back to this support. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current levels, followed by break of 1.6580 resistance, will argue that pullback from 1.7180 has completed already. Intraday bias will then be back on the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 1.7062 medium term top should have completed at 1.5996. Larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is resuming. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5996 at 1.7715. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will dampen this bullish view and extend medium term range trading.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6006) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.