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EUR/USD dipped to 1.0825 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further fall is in favor as long as 1.0896 minor resistance holds. Below 1.0825 will target 55 D EMA (now at 1.0815). Sustained break there will argue that whole rebound from 1.0601 has completed with three waves up to 1.0947, and target 1.0601/0665 support zone. Nevertheless, break of 1.0896 will bring retest of 1.0947 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern that's still be in progress. Break of 1.1138 resistance will be the first signal that rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) is ready to resume through 1.1274 (2023 high). However, break of 1.0665 support will extend the correction with another falling leg back towards 1.0447 support.

In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 (2022 low). Sustained break of 55 M EMA (now at 1.1013) will raise the chance of long term reversal. But even in this case, firm break of 1.2348 structural resistance is needed to confirm. Rejection by 55 M EMA will maintain bearishness for extend the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) through 0.9534 at a later stage.

USD/JPY's fall from 161.94 extended to as low as 151.93 last week, but recovered after breaching 151.98 resistance turned support briefly. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 155.36 support turned resistance holds. Decisive break of 151.89 resistance turned support will argue that large scale correction is underway to 148.66 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 155.36 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, considering the depth and momentum of the current decline, 161.94 should be a medium term top already. Fall from there is seen as correcting the whole rise from 127.20 (2023 low) at least. Break of 151.89 will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 161.94 at 148.66. Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 157.17) holds, in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, as long as 140.25 support holds, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 102.58 at 172.08.

GBP/USD gyrated lower last week but failed to break through 1.2859 resistance turned support decisively. Initial bias remains neutral first. Further rally is in favor. Break of 1.3043 will resume the rise from 1.2298. However, firm break of 1.2859 will turn bias to the downside for deeper decline to 55 D EMA (now at 1.2771).

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.3141 medium term top (2023 high) could have completed with three waves to 1.2298 already. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2612 support holds. Firm break of 1.3141 will target 61.8% projection of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 from 1.2298 at 1.4022.

In the long term picture, as long as 1.2298 support holds, rise from 1.0351 long term bottom is expected to continue. But still, firm break of 1.4248 structural resistance is needed to indicate bullish trend reversal. Otherwise, price actions from 1.0351 are tentatively seen as a consolidation pattern only.

USD/CHF edged lower to 0.8776 last week but recovered again. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. As long as 0.8923 resistance holds, further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 0.8776 will resume the fall from 0.9223 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8672 next. However, break of 0.8923 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.9243 resistance intact, medium term outlook in USD/CHF is neutral at best. For now, more sideway trading is likely between 0.8332/9243. However, firm break of 0.9243 will indicate larger bullish trend reversal.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Strong rebound from 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 (2016 high) at 0.8317 will start the third leg as a medium term rally. But there will be no sign of long term reversal until firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

AUD/USD's fall from 0.6798 accelerated to as low as 0.6513 last week but recovered after breaching 61.8% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6798 at 0.6528 briefly. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Further fall is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.6631) holds. Sustained break oft 0.6528 will pave the way back to 0.6361 support next.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.6798 as another falling leg. Deeper fall could be seen to the lower side of the range between 0.6169/6361. But strong support should be seen there to contain downside. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6798 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It's unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

USD/CAD surged to as high as 1.3848 last week and breached 1.3845 high, but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and some more consolidations could be seen. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.3755) holds. Decisive break of 1.3845 will resume whole rally from 1.3176. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3176 to 1.3845 from 1.3588 at 1.4025.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern, that might have completed at 1.3176 (2023 low) already. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149. This will be the favored case as long as 1.3588 support holds, in case of pullback.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.

GBP/JPY's fall from 208.09 accelerated to as low as 195.84 last week, but recovered after breaching 38.2% retracement of 178.32 to 208.09 at 196.71 briefly. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 202.08 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 196.71 will argue that larger scale correction is under way to 185.49 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 208.09 might be a medium term top and fall from there could already be correcting whole up trend from 148.93 (2022 low). Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 200.78) holds. Sustained break of 196.71 will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 148.93 to 208.09 at 185.49.

In the longer term picture, outlook will stay bullish as long as 188.63 resistance turned support holds, or until a clear reversal pattern forms. Rise from 122.75 (2016 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 (2011 low). Next target is 138.2% projection of 116.83 to 195.86 from 122.75 at 231.96.

EUR/JPY's fall from 175.41 accelerated to as low as 164.81 last week, but recovered ahead of 164.29 resistance turned support. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 169.98 resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break of 164.29 support turned resistance will indicate that larger scale correction is underway for 155.91 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is on 164.29 resistance turned support. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullishness for resuming the up trend through 175.41 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 164.29 will indicate that fall from 175.41 is at least correcting the rise from 124.73, with risk of bearish trend reversal. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 124.37 to 175.41 at 155.91.

In the long term picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is seen as the third leg of the whole up trend from 94.11 (2012 low). As long as 164.29 resistance turned support holds, further rise should be seen to 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 114.42 at 191.32. However, sustained break of 164.29 would risk deeper medium term fall back towards 55 M EMA (now at 145.09) even as a correction.

EUR/GBP's recovery from 0.8382 extended higher last week but outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8498 resistance holds. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Firm break of 0.8382 will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is in progress. Next target is 0.8201 key support (2022 low). For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8643 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD's rise from 1.5996 accelerated to as high as 1.6642 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 1.6384 support holds. Corrective fall from 1.7062 should have completed with three waves down to 1.5998. Above 1.6642 will target 1.6742 resistance. Decisive break there will argue that larger up trend is going to resume through 1.7062 high.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) and could have completed after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. On resumption next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5996 at 1.7715. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.6264) holds.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5987) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.