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GBP/USD rebounded after edging lower to 1.2298 last week. But upside is capped by 1.2538 support turned resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.2421 will argue that rebound from 1.2298 has completed and bring retest of this low. However, decisive break of 1.2538 will bring stronger rally to 55 D EMA (now at 1.2582) and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Fall from 1.2892 is seen as the third leg. Deeper decline would be seen to 1.2036 support and possibly below. But strong support should emerge from 61.8% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.2452 at 1.1417 to complete the correction.

In the long term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.0351 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. But momentum of the rebound from 1.3051 argues GBP/USD is merely in consolidation, rather than trend reversal. Range trading is likely between 1.0351/4248 for some more time.

USD/CHF breached 0.9151 resistance briefly but retreated back into established range. Initial bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. On the upside, firm break of 0.9151 will resume the rally from 0.8332 and should target 0.9243 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.9085 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium term bottom as tentatively seen as developing into a corrective pattern to the down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Further rise would be seen as long as 0.8884 resistance turned support holds. But upside should be limited by 0.9243 resistance, at least on first attempt. However, decisive break of 0.9243 will argue that the trend has already reversed and turn medium term outlook bullish.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Strong rebound from 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 (2016 high) will start the third leg as a medium term rally. But there will be no sign of long term reversal until firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

AUD/USD's rebound from 0.6361 extended higher last week and further rally is expected as long as 0.6482 support holds. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6527) will argue that fall from 0.6870 has completed, and bring further rally to 0.6643 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6482 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6361 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which is still in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It's unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

USD/CAD's fall from 1.3845 extended lower last week and further decline is in favor as long as 1.3730 minor resistance holds. Next target is 55 D EMA (now at 1.3599). On the upside, above 1.3730 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3845 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.

GBP/JPY's up trend resumed last week and accelerated to as high as 197.90. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Next target is 198.89 projection level. On the downside, below 195.85 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But pullback should be contained well above 193.51 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, current rally is part of the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low), 195.86 long term resistance (2015 high) was already broken. Next target is 61.8% projection of 155.33 to 188.63 from 178.32 at 198.89 next. Break of 189.97 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 (2011 low). Focus is now on 61.8% retracement of 251.09 (2007 high) to 116.83 at 199.80. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 251.09 in the long term.

EUR/JPY's up trend resumed last week and accelerated to as high as 169.38. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Next target is 169.96 high the downside, below 167.76 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But pull back should be contained well above 165.33 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, current rally is part of the up trend from 114.42 (2020 low), which is still in progress. Next target is 169.96 (2008 high). Decisive break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 139.05 to 164.29 from 153.15 at 178.39. On the downside, break of 162.26 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the long term picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is seen as the third leg of the whole up trend from 94.11 (2012 low). Next target is 100% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 114.42 at 170.07 which is close to 169.96 (2008 high). Firm break there will target 138.2% projection at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long as 153.15 support holds.

EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.8643 last week but reversed after rejection by medium term trendline resistance. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 0.8491/7 support zone. On the upside, above 0.8582 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish as EUR/GBP is capped below medium term falling trendline. That is, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.8491/7 will target 100% projection of 0.8764 to 0.8497 from 0.8643 at 0.8376.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD's fall from 1.6742 resumed by breaking through 1.6368 support last week. The development revived the case that rise from 1.6127 has completed at 1.6742. Fall from there is the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.7062. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for 1.6127 support next. On the upside, above 1.6484 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In case of another fall, strong support is expected around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound. Break of 1.7062 is in favor as a later stage.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5950) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.

EUR/CHF rebounded further to 0.9797 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations. But further rally is expected as long as 0.9708 minor support holds. Break of 0.9797 will target a retest on 0.9847 high. However, break of 0.9708 will turn bias to the downside, to extend the corrective pattern form 0.9847 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, while 55 D EMA (now at 0.9644) was breached, EUR/CHF rebounded strongly since then. Rise from 0.9252 medium term bottom should still be in progress. Break of 0.9847 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004. However, sustained trading below 55 D EMA will argue that the rebound has completed.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Firm break of 1.0095 resistance is needed to be the first sign of long term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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