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Silver posted its strongest weekly gain since 1998, surging 18%, driven by the "China factor"—specifically, Beijing's announcement of mandatory export licensing effective from 2026. This echoes the 1979 silver squeeze, when inflation soared and the Hunt brothers attempted to corner the market.

An ounce of silver now costs more than a barrel of oil, and daily trading volume in the SLV ETF reached USD 9.6 billion, a frenzy not seen since the peaks of 2011 and 2021. Octavio Costa of Crescat Capital even interprets this rally as a sign of hidden hyperinflation, largely overlooked by mainstream financial media.

The shift in sentiment has been extraordinary: silver has outperformed the British pound in market capitalisation terms and has soared 300% since October 2022, outpacing even high-flying AI stocks—a potent signal of speculative excess. However, the precious metals complex sold off sharply in the latter part of the session, with silver reaching a new daily low despite holding gains during Asian hours. The move appeared driven by forced short covering, a phenomenon often seen near market tops.

Underlying the volatility, silver inventories remain critically low, posing a potential supply threat to several key industries that rely on the metal in manufacturing.

Technical Analysis: XAG/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAG/USD completed an impulsive wave up to 83.70 USD. The market is now developing a corrective decline toward 66.80 USD. Upon reaching this level, a subsequent upward wave toward 75.30 USD may materialise.

The MACD indicator supports the near-term bearish view, as its signal line—positioned above zero but having diverged from the histogram—suggests further downside momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, silver completed a downward impulse to 74.85 USD, followed by a correction to 80.60 USD. The market is currently forming another bearish impulse targeting 69.90 USD. A corrective bounce toward 75.30 USD is expected afterward, potentially setting the stage for another leg lower toward 66.80 USD.

The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this outlook, with its signal line above 80 but turning decisively downward.

Conclusion

Silver's parabolic rise and subsequent sharp correction highlight extreme volatility and speculative positioning. While long-term fundamentals—including structural supply deficits and industrial demand—remain supportive, the near-term technical picture points to further downside toward 66.80–69.90 USD. The current pullback may offer a healthier foundation before the next sustained rally, but traders should monitor inventory data and Chinese policy signals closely. Expect elevated volatility to persist as the market digests recent extremes.

Disclaimer:
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8700; (P) 0.8720; (R1) 0.8731; More…

EUR/GBP's fall resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the downside. Decline from 0.8863 should continue to 0.8631 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618). Risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.8796 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8610) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7510; (P) 1.7567; (R1) 1.7645; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations could be seen. On the downside, firm break of 1.7477 will resume the whole decline from 1.8160, and target 1.7245 support and below. Nevertheless, break of 1.7635 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound back to 1.7804. Overall, corrective pattern from 1.8554 could extend further.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7470) holds, price actions from 1.8554 could still be a correction to rise from 1.5963 only. However, sustained break of the EMA will argue that it's already correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 183.34; (P) 183.88; (R1) 184.29; More...

EUR/JPY is staying in consolidations below 184.89 and intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained above 181.98 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 184.89 temporary top will resume larger up trend to 186.31 long term projection level.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, upside could be capped by 186.31 on first attempt. Still, outlook will stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 171.77) holds, even in case of deep pullback. Sustained break of 186.31 will pave the way to 100% projection at 205.81 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 210.41; (P) 210.90; (R1) 211.36; More...

GBP/JPY is staying in consolidations below 211.57 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Deeper retreat could be seen but downside should be contained above 206.74 support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 61.8% projection of 184.35 to 205.30 from 199.04 at 211.98 will extend current up trend to 100% projection at 219.99 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 199.04 support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9274; (P) 0.9291; (R1) 0.9309; More....

EUR/CHF is staying in consolidations above 0.9271 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper decline is expected as long as 0.9326 resistance holds. Below 0.9271 will resume the fall from 0.9394 to retest 0.9178 low. However, break of 0.9326 will bring stronger rise back to retest 0.9394 resistance.

In the bigger picture, EUR/CHF has breached long term falling channel resistance as the rebound from 0.9278 extends. Considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9366) will indicate medium term bottoming at 0.9178, and suggests that it's already in larger scale rebound. Further break of 0.9452 resistance will bring stronger medium term rally towards 0.9928 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 55 W EMA will retain bearishness for another fall through 0.9178 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3666; (P) 1.3683; (R1) 1.3709; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral for more consolidations above 1.3641 temporary low. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3804 resistance holds. Below 1.3641 will resume the fall from 1.4139 to retest 1.3538 low. Firm break there will extend the whole decline from 1.4791 to 1.3365 projection level.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.4791 is developing into a deeper, larger scale correction. In the less bearish case, it's just correcting the rise from 1.2005 (2021 low). But even so, break of 1.3538 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.4139 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6677; (P) 0.6702; (R1) 0.6722; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen below 0.6726 first. Further rally is expected as long as 0.6592 support holds. On the upside, sustained trading above 0.6713 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910.

In the bigger picture, the break of multi-year falling trend line resistance suggests that rise from 0.5913 is possibly reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 will solidify this case, and bring further rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.7206. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.6420 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and retain medium term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.78; (P) 156.18; (R1) 156.44; More...

USD/JPY is extending sideway consolidations below 157.88 and intraday bias stays neutral. With 154.33 support intact, outlook remains bullish. On the upside, firm break of 158.85 key structural resistance will be an important medium term bullish sign. Next target will be 161.94 high. However, decisive break of 154.38 will turn bias to the downside for deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7871; (P) 0.7893; (R1) 0.7914; More….

Consolidations continues above 0.7860 in USD/CHF and intraday bias stays neutral. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, further fall is expected as long as 0.7986 resistance holds. Break of 0.7860 will target 0.7828 low. Decisive break there will confirm larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low). Long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.