Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3477; (P) 1.3502; (R1) 1.3527; More...

GBP/USD retreated after forming a temporary top a 1.3533 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Some consolidations would be seen and deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But further rally is expected as long as 1.3356 support holds. Above 1.3533 will resume the rally from 1.3008 to retest 1.3787 high.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.3787 is merely a corrective move, and larger rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.3787 will target 1.4248 (2021 high) key structural resistance. This will remain the favored case as long as target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 holds, in case of another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7868; (P) 0.7886; (R1) 0.7914; More….

USD/CHF recovered after forming a temporary low at 0.7860 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Further decline is expected as long as 0.7986 resistance holds. Break of 0.7860 will target 0.7828 low. Decisive break there will confirm larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low). Long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6700; (P) 0.6712; (R1) 0.6728; More...

AUD/USD retreated after edging higher to 0.6726 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further rally is expected as long as 0.6592 support holds. On the upside, sustained trading above 0.6713 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910.

In the bigger picture, the break of multi-year falling trend line resistance suggests that rise from 0.5913 is possibly reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 will solidify this case, and bring further rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.7206. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.6420 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and retain medium term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3641; (P) 1.3672; (R1) 1.3702; More...

USD/CAD's recovery suggests that a temporary low was formed at 1.3641 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Some consolidations could be seen but further decline is expected as long as 1.3804 resistance holds. Below 1.3641 will resume the fall from 1.4139 to retest 1.3538 low. Firm break there will extend the whole decline from 1.4791 to 1.3365 projection level.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.4791 is developing into a deeper, larger scale correction. In the less bearish case, it's just correcting the rise from 1.2005 (2021 low). But even so, break of 1.3538 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.4139 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9268; (P) 0.9285; (R1) 0.9311; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral with current recovery and some consolidations could be seen above 0.9271. Deeper decline is expected as long as 0.9326 resistance holds. Below 0.9271 will resume the fall from 0.9394 to retest 0.9178 low. However, break of 0.9326 will bring stronger rise back to retest 0.9394 resistance.

In the bigger picture, EUR/CHF has breached long term falling channel resistance as the rebound from 0.9278 extends. Considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9366) will indicate medium term bottoming at 0.9178, and suggests that it's already in larger scale rebound. Further break of 0.9452 resistance will bring stronger medium term rally towards 0.9928 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 55 W EMA will retain bearishness for another fall through 0.9178 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8706; (P) 0.8722; (R1) 0.8735; More…

EUR/GBP dipped to 0.8711 after breaching 0.8720 support but quickly recovered. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further fall is expected as long as 0.8796 resistance holds. Below 0.8711 will resume the decline from 0.8863 to 0.8631 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618). However, on the upside, break of 0.8796 resistance will argue that the fall has completed as a correction, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.8863.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8610) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7507; (P) 1.7553; (R1) 1.7576; More...

EUR/AUD lost downside momentum ahead of 1.7477 support and recovered. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 1.7477 will resume the whole decline from 1.8160, and target 1.7245 support and below. Nevertheless, break of 1.7635 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound back to 1.7804. Overall, corrective pattern from 1.8554 could extend further.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7470) holds, price actions from 1.8554 could still be a correction to rise from 1.5963 only. However, sustained break of the EMA will argue that it's already correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 183.54; (P) 183.99; (R1) 184.58; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as consolidations continue below 184.89. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained above 181.98 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 184.89 temporary top will resume larger up trend to 186.31 long term projection level.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, upside could be capped by 186.31 on first attempt. Still, outlook will stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 171.77) holds, even in case of deep pullback. Sustained break of 186.31 will pave the way to 100% projection at 205.81 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 210.68; (P) 211.10; (R1) 211.79; More...

GBP/JPY dips mildly as consolidations continue below 211.57. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Deeper retreat could be seen but downside should be contained above 206.74 support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 61.8% projection of 184.35 to 205.30 from 199.04 at 211.98 will extend current up trend to 100% projection at 219.99 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 199.04 support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.

Risk sentiment softened as markets reopened after the holiday break, with investors adopting a more defensive posture. Asian equities drifted lower, and European markets struggled to gain traction at the open, reflecting subdued conviction.

One immediate dampener came from the Summary of Opinions released by the BoJ. The document reinforced that hawkish voices within the board remain firmly intact following the December rate hike. While no near-term tightening is in play, the broader message was unmistakable: the policy path still points upward. Several policymakers signaled that normalization is unfinished even after lifting the policy rate to a multi-decade high earlier this month.

A notable nuance was the absence of explicit pushback from the two Japanese government representatives present at the BoJ meeting. That silence is read as a lack of political interference from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, and a tacit endorsement of measured tightening if economic conditions allow.

Geopolitical risks also weighed on sentiment, with renewed focus on East Asia. China conducted extensive live-fire drills around Taiwan, involving multiple branches of its military, as Taiwan responded with troop deployments and high-profile defense demonstrations.

The drills came just days after the US announced a record USD 11.1B arms sales package to Taiwan, drawing strong protests from Beijing and warnings of “forceful measures” in response. Such exercises increasingly blur the line between routine training and preparations that could mask early stages of an attack.

In FX markets, defensive currencies outperformed. Yen led gains for the day so far, followed by Swiss Franc and Euro. At the other end, Kiwi lagged, followed by Aussie and Loonie, as risk-sensitive currencies struggled to regain footing. Dollar and Sterling traded in the middle of the pack.

In Asia, Nikkei fell -0.44%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.71%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.04%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.04%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.02 to 2.061.

Silver pauses after strong rally, 70–84 consolidation band set

Precious metals opened the week with a sharp bout of volatility, led by a thin-market surge in Silver that briefly carried prices to fresh record highs just below 84. The rally, however, quickly lost momentum, and the retreat in both Silver and Gold suggests consolidation is now the more likely path, rather than immediate continuation. After an extended run, profit-taking has begun to surface, particularly as markets reassess near-term risk drivers.

Part of the pullback has been attributed to tentative optimism around peace discussions in Ukraine. While headlines have eased some immediate safe-haven demand, broader geopolitical risks remain firmly in play. East Asia is now a focal point after China conducted live-fire drills around Taiwan under its “Justice Mission 2025” exercises, deploying troops, warships, fighter jets, and artillery. Macro support also remains intact. Expectations for extended policy easing by the Federal Reserve in 2026, alongside persistent Dollar weakness, should limit the downside for both Gold and Silver once consolidation matures.

Technically, Silver's upside acceleration was stronger than expected, as exaggerated by thin market. 200% projection of 36.93 to 54.44 from 48.60 at 83.52 was already met.

Considering the strength of the latest upleg and the depth of the subsequent pullback, a short term top was likely formed and some time is needed to digest to move. Hence, more sideway trading is expected in the coming days.

For now, initial support should be found at 38.2% retracement of 48.60.to 83.94 at 70.44, which is slightly above 55 4H EMA (now at 69.49) to contain downside. Range trading is expected between 70 and 84 for consolidations.

The prospect of extending the powerful up trend to 261.8% projection at 94.34 remains alive. However, firm break of 70 will indicate that it's already in a medium term correction, instead of a near term one.

Gold has clearly underperformed Silver on the strength of latest rise. For now, some consolidations would be seen below 4549.90 high.

Firm break of 55 4H EMA (now at 4410.98) would bring deeper pullback towards 4319.71 support. But strong support is expected there to bring rebound, and set the base for extending the up trend at a later stage.

However, further break of 4319.71 will suggest that Gold is in a deeper correction towards 55 D EMA (now at 4159.42). It this happen, it would also be taken as a signal of similar deeper correction in Silver too.

BoJ opinions suggests series of hikes as neutral rate remains distant

The latest Summary of Opinions from the BoJ's December 18–19 meeting reinforced a clear tightening bias, with many policymakers arguing that the December rate hike should not mark the end of the cycle.

One opinion noted there was “still considerable distance” to neutral levels, explicitly calling for rate hikes at "intervals of a few months". Another linked Yen weakness and rising long-term yields partly to the policy rate being too low relative to inflation, suggesting delayed normalization risks exacerbating financial distortions.

Inflation concerns featured prominently throughout the discussion. Several members described recent price pressures as “sticky”. One opinion highlighted spring wage negotiations as a key test, arguing that a third consecutive year of target-consistent wage growth would confirm underlying inflation has reached 2%.

Still, not all voices favored an aggressive path. Some policymakers urged caution, citing uncertainty around the neutral rate and shifting global rate environments. They argued flexibility should take precedence over targeting a specific policy level.

At the meeting, the BoJ raised its policy rate to a 30-year high of 0.75%.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 210.68; (P) 211.10; (R1) 211.79; More...

GBP/JPY dips mildly as consolidations continue below 211.57. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Deeper retreat could be seen but downside should be contained above 206.74 support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 61.8% projection of 184.35 to 205.30 from 199.04 at 211.98 will extend current up trend to 100% projection at 219.99 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 199.04 support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.