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AUD/USD started a fresh increase above 0.6700. NZD/USD is also rising and might aim for more gains above 0.5850.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started an increase above 0.6650 against the US Dollar.
• There is a short-term bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6695 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is consolidating gains above the 0.5800 handle.
• There is a key bullish flag pattern forming with resistance at 0.5840 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from 0.6600. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear 0.6650 to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

There was a close above 0.6580 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested 0.6725. A high was formed near 0.6724 and the pair recently started a short-term downside correction. There was a minor decline below 0.6700.

On the downside, initial support is near a short-term bullish trend line at 0.6695 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next area of interest could be 0.6665 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6604 swing low to the 0.6724 high.

If there is a downside break below 0.6665, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6650 zone. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6635 and the 76.4% Fib retracement.

On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.6725. The first major hurdle for the bulls might be 0.6750. An upside break above 0.6750 might send the pair further higher. The next stop is near 0.6800. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward 0.6850.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from 0.5735. The New Zealand Dollar broke the 0.5780 barrier to start the recent rally against the US Dollar.

The pair settled above 0.5800 and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested 0.5850 and is currently consolidating gains. There was a minor pullback below 0.5830. The NZD/USD chart shows that the RSI is now just above 50.

On the downside, immediate support is near the 0.5795 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.5736 swing low to the 0.5853 high.

The first key zone for the bulls sits at 0.5780 and the 61.8% Fib retracement. The next key level is 0.5760. If there is a downside break below 0.5760, the pair might slide toward 0.5735. Any more losses could lead NZD/USD into a bearish zone to 0.5700.

On the upside, the pair might struggle near 0.5840 and an upper boundary of the bullish flag pattern. The next major resistance is near the 0.5855 level. A clear move above 0.5855 might even push the pair toward 0.5880. Any more gains might clear the path for a move toward the 0.5950 zone in the coming days.

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• Gold retreats from a fresh all-time high after the US–Ukrainian presidential talks.
• Technical indicators turn lower in overbought territory; support near 4,380.

Gold entered a corrective phase following a Christmas bullish stretch that lifted prices to a new all-time high of 4,449, as a face-to-face meeting between the U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky in Florida concluded on Sunday with hopes that a peace deal could be achievable, despite no clear details or timelines being provided.

Having rallied for eight weeks with minimal losses during the bullish phase, some consolidation appears normal, as the RSI and the stochastic oscillator seem to have peaked in overbought territory.

Immediate support could emerge near October’s high of 4,380 or slightly lower at 4,325, where the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) is converging. Further declines from there could shift the short-term outlook back to neutral, likely pressing prices toward the support trendline at 4,220 and the 50-day SMA at 4,177.

In the event that bulls return, pushing prices above 4,550, the door could open for the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the previous downleg at 4,685 and the ascending trendline from April at 4,725. The psychological 4,800 level will also be closely watched.

Overall, gold may experience some profit-taking in the short-term following another record-breaking bull run. A clear close below 4,380 would downgrade the short-term outlook to neutral.

Precious metals opened the week with a sharp bout of volatility, led by a thin-market surge in Silver that briefly carried prices to fresh record highs just below 84. The rally, however, quickly lost momentum, and the retreat in both Silver and Gold suggests consolidation is now the more likely path, rather than immediate continuation. After an extended run, profit-taking has begun to surface, particularly as markets reassess near-term risk drivers.

Part of the pullback has been attributed to tentative optimism around peace discussions in Ukraine. While headlines have eased some immediate safe-haven demand, broader geopolitical risks remain firmly in play. East Asia is now a focal point after China conducted live-fire drills around Taiwan under its “Justice Mission 2025” exercises, deploying troops, warships, fighter jets, and artillery. Macro support also remains intact. Expectations for extended policy easing by the Federal Reserve in 2026, alongside persistent Dollar weakness, should limit the downside for both Gold and Silver once consolidation matures.

Technically, Silver's upside acceleration was stronger than expected, as exaggerated by thin market. 200% projection of 36.93 to 54.44 from 48.60 at 83.52 was already met.

Considering the strength of the latest upleg and the depth of the subsequent pullback, a short term top was likely formed and some time is needed to digest to move. Hence, more sideway trading is expected in the coming days.

For now, initial support should be found at 38.2% retracement of 48.60.to 83.94 at 70.44, which is slightly above 55 4H EMA (now at 69.49) to contain downside. Range trading is expected between 70 and 84 for consolidations.

The prospect of extending the powerful up trend to 261.8% projection at 94.34 remains alive. However, firm break of 70 will indicate that it's already in a medium term correction, instead of a near term one.

Gold has clearly underperformed Silver on the strength of latest rise. For now, some consolidations would be seen below 4549.90 high.

Firm break of 55 4H EMA (now at 4410.98) would bring deeper pullback towards 4319.71 support. But strong support is expected there to bring rebound, and set the base for extending the up trend at a later stage.

However, further break of 4319.71 will suggest that Gold is in a deeper correction towards 55 D EMA (now at 4159.42). It this happen, it would also be taken as a signal of similar deeper correction in Silver too.

The latest Summary of Opinions from the BoJ's December 18–19 meeting reinforced a clear tightening bias, with many policymakers arguing that the December rate hike should not mark the end of the cycle.

One opinion noted there was “still considerable distance” to neutral levels, explicitly calling for rate hikes at "intervals of a few months". Another linked Yen weakness and rising long-term yields partly to the policy rate being too low relative to inflation, suggesting delayed normalization risks exacerbating financial distortions.

Inflation concerns featured prominently throughout the discussion. Several members described recent price pressures as “sticky”. One opinion highlighted spring wage negotiations as a key test, arguing that a third consecutive year of target-consistent wage growth would confirm underlying inflation has reached 2%.

Still, not all voices favored an aggressive path. Some policymakers urged caution, citing uncertainty around the neutral rate and shifting global rate environments. They argued flexibility should take precedence over targeting a specific policy level.

At the meeting, the BoJ raised its policy rate to a 30-year high of 0.75%.

Full BoJ Summary of Opinions here.

Key takeaways

2025 FX markets were defined by a tug of war between “US exceptionalism” and “US debasement”, with fiscal fears and erratic trade policy driving early dollar weakness, while Fed–global policy divergence intermittently revived USD strength.

The US dollar fell sharply in H1 2025 (-11.5%), rebounded briefly on renewed US exceptionalism, then settled into consolidation, ending the year down ~10% as the Fed shifted to a more balanced, mildly dovish stance.

Non-US currencies broadly outperformed the USD, led by EUR, CHF and AUD, supported by portfolio rebalancing, selective central bank restraint, commodity dynamics, and easing US-China tensions.

Improving global growth expectations threaten USD support in 2026, as rising economic surprises and potential pauses in non-US rate cuts could compress the US Treasury yield premium.

US liquidity is turning into a structural headwind for the US dollar, with the Fed ending QT and restarting Treasury bill buybacks, lifting net liquidity and historically increasing downside pressure on the USD.

Technically, EUR/USD and AUD/USD show bullish continuation signals, while USD/JPY appears vulnerable to a bearish reversal unless it breaks decisively above long-term resistance.

2025 recap - A tug of war between “US exceptionalism” and “US debasement”

Fig. 1: Year-to-date performance of the US dollar against major currencies as of 29 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Fig. 2: US Dollar Index long-term secular trend as of 29 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The defining narrative in the foreign exchange market for 2025 is a tug of war between "US exceptionalism – US dollar strong" and “US debasement – US dollar weak”.

At the start of 2025, market consensus leaned heavily toward a bearish outlook for the US dollar, anchored on the new Trump administration’s aggressive fiscal agenda. Deep corporate tax cuts were expected to further widen the US budget deficit, raising concerns over heavier Treasury issuance, weaker demand for US sovereign debt, and upward pressure on long-term yields—dynamics that underpinned the “US Debasement” trade narrative.

This view was reinforced by erratic US trade policy execution, which unsettled global markets. The announcement of sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs on 2 April 2025 amplified fears that the administration might tolerate—or even encourage—a weaker dollar to enhance US export competitiveness as part of its ambition to reindustrialize the economy around high-tech manufacturing.

Against this backdrop, the US Dollar Index slid sharply by 11.5% in the first half of 2025 (1 January to 1 July) (see Fig. 1). The sell-off then stalled as the “US exceptionalism” narrative resurfaced, driven by widening monetary policy divergences between the Federal Reserve and other major developed-market central banks.

Into the third quarter, the Fed adopted a “wait-and-see” stance amid sticky inflation and a still-resilient US services sector. In contrast, the ECB and BoE struck a more dovish tone as the euro area wrestled with waning confidence tied to Germany’s industrial slowdown, while the UK faced stagflationary pressures. At the same time, commodity-linked currencies suffered a sharp terms-of-trade shock from renewed US-China geopolitical tensions, weighing on the CAD, AUD, and NZD.

The Japanese yen also remained under pressure despite inflation running above 2%, constrained by the Bank of Japan’s limited ability to normalise policy decisively amid political and administrative gridlock. With “US exceptionalism” back in focus, the US Dollar Index retraced part of its losses, narrowing its year-to-date decline from 11.5% to 8.4% between 1 July and 31 July (see Fig. 2).

That rebound proved short-lived. On 22 August 2025, the Fed’s guidance pivoted decisively dovish when Chair Powell, speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium, warned that a weakening US labour market posed risks to growth. The dollar subsequently resumed its decline but failed to break the 1 July 2025 low, entering a sideways consolidation.

As of 29 December 2025, the US Dollar Index was down 10.3% year-to-date, reflecting the Fed’s more balanced policy stance even as it resumed easing in September with three 25 bps rate cuts, lowering the fed funds rate to 3.5%–3.75% from 4.25%–4.5%.

Below is a summary table highlighting the 2025 performance of key currencies and their main drivers.

Next, we examine the key macro forces likely to shape the US dollar’s trajectory in 2026, followed by three currency pairs to watch from a technical analysis perspective.

Improved global growth prospects may reduce the US Treasury yield premium

Fig. 3: World Citigroup Economic Surprise Index as of 26 Dec 2025 (Source: MacroMicro)

Fig. 4: 2 YR & 10 YR US Treasury/sovereign bonds yield spreads with US Dollar Index as of 29 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The World Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has extended its upward trend, reaching a 20-month high of 26.80 as of 11 December 2025. Readings above zero indicate that global economic data are consistently outperforming expectations (see Fig. 3).

A rising Surprise Index points to improving global growth prospects, which could encourage greater capital allocation toward non-US assets and, in turn, place downside pressure on the US dollar in 2026. Stronger global growth may also lead developed-market central banks such as the ECB, RBA, and BoC to pause their rate-cut cycles, potentially pushing their sovereign bond yields higher.

As a result, the US Treasury yield premium, the spread between US yields and those of other major economies, could narrow further into 2026, creating a negative feedback loop for the US dollar. Consistent with this, the US Dollar Index has exhibited a strong positive correlation with the yield spread between 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries relative to an equal-weighted basket of sovereign bonds from Germany, the UK, Japan, Canada, Switzerland, Australia, and China (see Fig. 4).

An increase in US liquidity may increase the odds of a weaker US dollar

Fig. 5: US Net Liquidity Indicator with inverse of US Dollar Index as of 26 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The US Net Liquidity Indicator, constructed by netting the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet (liquidity injection) against the combined drains from the US Treasury General Account and the Fed’s overnight reverse repo facility, serves as a useful gauge of liquidity conditions in the US financial system. Historically, the indicator shows an inverse relationship with the US dollar, or a direct correlation with the inverse of the US Dollar Index.

In simple terms, improving liquidity conditions, reflected by a rising Net Liquidity Indicator, tend to weaken the US dollar, while tightening liquidity, signalled by a falling indicator, typically supports dollar strength. As shown in Fig. 5, the Net Liquidity Indicator surged during the COVID period from February 2020 to December 2021, coinciding with a sustained weakening of the US dollar over the same timeframe.

In early May 2022, the Fed announced it would shrink its balance sheet, launching its second round of quantitative tightening (QT) in June 2022. Even ahead of the announcement, the Net Liquidity Indicator had already turned lower between December 2021 and April 2022, which aligned with a sharp rebound in the US dollar from late 2021 through September 2022.

Since June 2023, the Fed’s second QT programme has kept US net liquidity largely range-bound, leaving the US Dollar Index trapped in a choppy, upward-sloping trading range over the same period. That backdrop shifted in late 2025.

At the 29 October 2025 FOMC meeting, the Fed announced the end of QT, effective 1 December 2025, and followed up at its 10 December 2025 meeting with an unexpected restart of Treasury buybacks under its reverse management programme, committing to purchase US$40 billion of short-term Treasury bills per month starting 12 December 2025.

In response, the US Net Liquidity Indicator rebounded from its range low of US$5.58 trillion in the week of 27 October 2025 to US$5.7 trillion as of 26 December 2025, alongside a renewed weakening in the US Dollar Index. If the Fed continues its Treasury bill buyback programme, net liquidity is likely to rise further, increasing downside risks for the US dollar.

EUR/USD exhibits positive elements to resume bullish leg within major uptrend

Fig. 6: EUR/USD major trend as of 29 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The 5-month sideways movement of the EUR/USD from June 2025 to early December 2025 is considered a potential consolidation within a three-year major uptrend phase since its low on 28 September 2022, rather than the start of a major topping process.

The recent price action of the EUR/USD has managed to stage a rebound after a close retest of the key 200-day moving average (around 1.1470) and has reintegrated back above the 50-day moving average in early December 2025 (see Fig. 6).

In addition, the weekly RSI momentum indicator has also staged a corresponding rebound after a retest at its 50 level, which suggests a potential revival of upside momentum for the EUR/USD.

Watch the long-term secular support of 1.1230 on the EUR/USD, and a clearance above 1.1940 sees the next major resistances coming at 1.2270 and 1.2540.

On the flipside, failure to hold at 1.1230 invalidates the bullish bias for a deeper corrective decline to expose the next major supports at 1.0940 and 1.0495 (also the lower boundary of the long-term secular ascending channel).

AUD/USD major bullish breakout from 4-year descending resistance

Fig. 7: AUD/USD major trend as of 29 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The AUD/USD has managed to clear above a major hurdle after 4 months of choppy range consolidation from July 2025 to November 2025 (see Fig. 7).

After a retest on its key 200-day moving average in late November 2025, the AUD/USD has staged a major bullish breakout on the week of 1 December 2025, with a weekly close above a former long-term secular descending trendline resistance from February 2021 swing high now turns pull-back support at 0.6605.

The weekly MACD trend indicator reinforces the AUD/USD’s major bullish breakout, having produced a bullish crossover above its centreline, signalling a potential shift from a sideways phase into a sustained uptrend.

Watch the 0.6400 key long-term pivotal support on the AUD/USD, and right now, it has staged a clearance above 0.6700, where the next major resistances are coming in at 0.6940 and 0.7140 in the first step.

However, a break and a weekly close below 0.6400 invalidates the bullish tone for a resumption of the choppy corrective decline phase to retest the next major support zone of 0.5990/0.5810 (COVID period swing low of March 2020).

USD/JPY potential bearish reversal towards major range support

Fig. 8: USD/JPY major trend as of 29 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Since hitting a 38-year high of 161.95 in July 2024, the USD/JPY has been trapped in a wide sideways range of 15%.

The USD/JPY hit the bottom of the range at 140.25 at the end of April 2025 (ex-post US President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement) and drifted upwards towards the upper boundary of the major sideways range in the second half of 2025.

Right now, it is coming to the tail end of the upper boundary of the major range, with the weekly RSI momentum indicator shaping a bearish reaction at its descending resistance that coincides with its overbought region.

These observations suggest that the multi-month up move of the USD/JPY from April 2025 to December 2025 is losing upside momentum, which increases the odds of a bearish reversal back towards the middle part of the range in the first step (see Fig. 8).

Watch the 161.95 key long-term secular pivotal resistance on the USD/JPY, with the medium-term support zone coming in at 148.65/145.85 (also the 200-day moving average). A break below 145.85 exposes the major range support zone of 140.25/137.35.

On the other hand, a clearance with a weekly close above 161.95 invalidates the bearish reversal scenario for the continuation of its major bullish impulsive up move sequence towards the next major resistance of 170.70 in the first step.

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD started a steady increase above the 1.1720 zone.
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support at 1.1750 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD is currently consolidating gains above 1.3450.
• Gold extended its rally and climbed to a new all-time high above $4,530.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro found support and started a fresh increase above 1.1680 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD climbed higher above 1.1720 to enter a positive zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above 1.1750, the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour), and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). A high was formed at 1.1806 before there was a pullback.

The pair dipped below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1708 swing low to the 1.1806 high. On the downside, there is key support at 1.1750. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1750. A downside break below the trend line might spark bearish moves.

The first major support is 1.1710 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). The next support could be 1.1650 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour), below which the bears might aim for a move toward 1.1610.

Immediate resistance sits near 1.1800. The first key hurdle is seen near 1.1820. A close above 1.1820 could open the doors for a move toward 1.1850. Any more gains could set the pace for a steady increase toward 1.1920.

Looking at Gold, the bulls remain in action and might soon aim for a move above the $4,550 level in the near term.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• US Pending Home Sales for Nov 2025 (YoY) - Forecast +1%, versus +1.9% previous.

The Christmas holidays made for a quiet and shortened trading week, with fewer big moves in the markets. In the U.S., GDP data for Q3 was revised much higher, showing the economy grew at an annual rate of 4.3%, the fastest pace in two years. At the same time, U.S. consumer confidence fell for a fifth month in a row, as people became more worried about jobs and business conditions.

The U.S. dollar weakened during the week, which helped gold surge to new record highs as the strong uptrend continued. USD/JPY moved lower after Bank of Japan Governor Ueda signaled the central bank is ready to raise interest rates further next year. The yen was also supported by verbal warnings from Finance Minister Katayama, while the 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose to 2.04%.

Stock markets in both the U.S. and Japan moved slightly higher, but gains were limited due to low holiday trading volumes. With no major surprises, most price action reflected year-end positioning rather than strong conviction, leaving markets ready to react to new data in the weeks ahead.

Markets This Week

U.S. Stocks

The Dow Index has returned to record highs as the U.S. economy continues to grow better than expected, easing fears of a sharp slowdown. With markets winding down for the year, trading is likely to remain quiet, making range trading the preferred strategy for those who choose to stay active. Resistance is seen at 49,000 and 50,000, while support is located at 48,000, 47,500, 47,000, 46,500, and 46,000.

Japanese Stocks

The Nikkei index edged slightly higher, supported by gains in U.S. stocks and the continued weakness of the yen. Price is holding above the 50,000 level, but the sideways-sloping 10-day moving average suggests that range-bound trading is likely to continue this week. Resistance is seen at 51,000円, 51,500円, and 52,000円, while support is located at 49,000円, 48,000円, and 47,000円.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY held firm near the yearly highs after the sharp rally triggered by the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy statement the previous week. This week, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda said further interest rate hikes are likely next year, while government comments suggesting the yen remains too weak encouraged continued selling pressure. Support held near the 10-day moving average, and rising long-term Japanese bond yields point to ongoing concerns about Japan’s public finances, keeping yen sellers active. With strong resistance around 158 and no direct intervention from the Bank of Japan so far, yen weakness may persist. In the short term, range trading between 155 and 158 looks like the most suitable strategy. Resistance is at 158, 159, and 160, while support is at 156, 155, and 154.5.

Gold

The strong uptrend in gold extended last week, with prices surging to fresh record highs as traders and investors continued to buy. There was no single news event driving the move, but the ongoing weakness in the U.S. dollar provided support. In the short term, gold is overbought, with prices trading above the upper Bollinger Band, but fighting the uptrend remains risky. The preferred approach is to wait for a pullback closer to the 10-day moving average before looking for buying opportunities. Resistance is seen at $4,600, $4,700, and $4,800, while support is located at $4,450, $4,380, $4,350, and $4,300.

Crude Oil

WTI crude held the yearly lows, encouraging some short-term speculative buying, with strong U.S. GDP data also providing support. However, resistance at $60 held, and the broader trend remains downward. As long as prices stay below $60, the focus remains on selling opportunities. Resistance is seen at $60, $65, $66.50, $70, and $75, while support remains at $55 and $50.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin had a quiet week as speculative selling continued following the drop back below $100,000, which has weakened market sentiment. Price remains range-bound, but risks are skewed toward further downside if additional speculative positions are liquidated. In the short term, the focus remains on selling opportunities rather than chasing rebounds. Key levels remain unchanged, with resistance at $95,000 and $100,000, while support is at $85,000, $80,000, and $75,000.

This Week’s Focus

• Monday: U.S. Pending Home Sales
• Tuesday: U.S. S&P Case-Shiller home price index, Chicago PMI and FOMC Minutes
• Wednesday: China Manufacturing PMI
• Friday: U.S. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI

This is a shortened trading week with even fewer economic releases than last week, as New Year holidays around the world further reduce market activity. With low liquidity, large moves are unlikely, but surprises are always possible, especially in gold and USD/JPY, which remain popular with both short-term and long-term traders.

Monday, Dec 29, 2025

Tuesday, Dec 30, 2025

Wednesday, Dec 31, 2025

Thursday, Jan 1, 2026

Friday, Jan 2, 2026

Just four days ago, we reported on the record breakout above the $4,400 level. The bullish gold market is now providing a new reason for analysis. As the XAU/USD chart shows, the gold price has risen above $4,530 today, marking a new all-time high.

The fundamental backdrop supporting demand for the metal is driven by expectations of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve in 2026, a weaker US dollar, and rising geopolitical tensions.

Technical analysis of the XAU/USD chart

The previously established ascending channel has changed in width but has maintained its angle of inclination. In this context:

→ the upper boundary is acting as resistance;

→ the channel median is providing market support.

Note that:

→ following the breakout above the $4,350 level (as indicated by the arrow), the price advanced steadily towards $4,400;

→ however, in recent days the RSI indicator has been forming bearish divergences, suggesting that bullish momentum may be losing strength.

Under these conditions, the market appears vulnerable to the formation of a corrective pullback.

Indeed, after an approximate 70% rally since the beginning of the year, profit-taking from long positions looks increasingly attractive. Nevertheless, given the holiday period, we may see gold price fluctuations simply fade near the newly reached record, with market activity resuming in the new year.

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