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EURJPY is flirting with its 15-year high of 157.94 again that it registered in July, thanks to strong buying interest over the past three days.

The pair bounced up with strong momentum following the nosedive to a six-week low of 151.39 last Friday, forming a bullish channel in the medium-term picture. More fuel is needed to continue the rally above 158.00, but the negative trend in the RSI and MACD cast doubt on a major change happening soon. Note that the stochastic oscillator is nearing its 80 overbought level too.

If the uptrend resumes above 158.00, the price could mark a new higher high somewhere between 160.00 and 161.35, where the two resistance lines from January could cap the price. Another successful battle there could lift the price towards the 163.00 barrier last seen in August 2008, while a faster increase could target the limits around 165.00.

Looking for support levels, the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) has been limiting both upside and downside movements occasionally in the past and could immediately come into consideration at 155.85 if sellers take control. The space between the 50-day SMA and the 153.00 round level might delay a test near the channel’s lower boundary seen at 152.00. Even lower, the pair might seek shelter within the 150.00-149.80 constraining zone.

In brief, despite the quick recovery from last week’s plunge, EURJPY has not eliminated downside risks yet. An obvious extension above 158.00 is essential for a continuation towards 160.00.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6432; (P) 1.6525; (R1) 1.6699; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is back on the upside with firm break of 1.6601 resistance. Further rally should be seen to 1.6785 high. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend to 1.7377 projection level next. On the downside, break of 1.6577 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, with 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828 intact, rally from 1.4281 is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6785 will confirm rise resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. On the other hand, rejection by 1.6785 will extend the corrective pattern with another fall leg. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5828 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8563; (P) 0.8585; (R1) 0.8619; More...

Outlook in EUR/GBP is unchanged and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, below 0.8543 will target a test on 0.8502 low. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 0.8977. On the upside, above 0.8618 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.8700, and possibly further to 0.8717 key support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Firm break of 0.8717 support turned resistance will argue that it has completed with three waves down to 0.8502. Further break of 0.8977 will bring retest of 0.9267 high. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.8717, followed by break of 0.8502 will resume the decline towards 0.8201 (2022 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.72; (P) 157.11; (R1) 157.82; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat but outlook is unchanged. Decisive break of 157.99/158.03 will resume larger up trend to 162.82 projection level next. However, break of 155.10 will extend the corrective pattern from 157.99 with another falling leg instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 151.60 resistance turned support holds, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. On resumption, next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 162.82. Nevertheless, sustained break of 151.60 will argue that larger correction is already underway. Deeper decline would be seen to 55 W EMA (now at 145.56).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 182.73; (P) 182.99; (R1) 183.39; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. Outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 183.99 has completed with three waves down to 176.29. Above 183.23 will target 183.99 resistance first. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend. However, break of 180.85 will turn bias to the downside to extend the corrective pattern from 183.99 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, as long as 172.11 resistance turned support holds, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is expected to continue through 183.99 at a later stage, towards 195.86 (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 172.11 will argue that larger correction is already underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9583; (P) 0.9603; (R1) 0.9633; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral and outlook remains bearish with 0.9670 support turned resistance intact. Break of 0.9520 will resume the fall from 1.0095 towards 0.9407 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.9670 will be the first sign of bullish reversal and target 0.9840 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying bearish as the pair is capped well below falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9876). Down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is in favor to continue. Sustained break of 0.9407 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 1.0095 at 0.9018. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.9840 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral and outlook remains bearish with 0.9670 support turned resistance intact. Break of 0.9520 will resume the fall from 1.0095 towards 0.9407 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.9670 will be the first sign of bullish reversal and target 0.9840 resistance for confirmation.

USDJPY is edging lower today following the good move recorded since the latest BoJ meeting. The pair remains near the midpoint of the upward trending channel that has been in place since the March 2023 banking sector-induced pullback and a tad below the 2023 high, thus keeping the recent rhetoric about a likely intervention alive.

The bulls are trying to register a series of higher highs and higher lows and reestablish their control over the market but the momentum indicators are mixed at this stage. The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) has been on an aggressive downward path since the June 30 peak. It is now preparing to drop below its 25-threshold and hence signal a range-trading market. On the other hand, the stochastic oscillator appears to support the bulls’ intentions. It has managed to bounce off its moving average (MA) and it is now heading higher towards its overbought area while building a good gap from its MA.

Should the bulls remain determined in staging another rally, they would try to push USDJPY above the October 21, 2022 downward sloping trendline and the September 7, 2022 high at 144.99. They would then have the opportunity to record a new 2023 high before they set their eyes on a bigger prize, the August 11, 1998 high at 147.71.

On the flip side, the bears are anxiously trying to avoid a return to the recent USDJPY highs. They appear willing to defend the October 21, 2022 trendline and gradually lead the pair towards the busy 139.38-139.96 area populated by the July 14, 2022 high and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March 9, 2022 - October 21, 2022 uptrend respectively. However, they first have to overcome the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) 141.17.

To sum up, USDJPY bulls are back in control assisted by a bullish stochastic, but the battle's outcome is yet to be decided.

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline below the 1.2880 pivot level. The British Pound traded below the 1.2800 level to move into a bearish zone against the US Dollar.

The pair settled below the 50-hour simple moving average and tested the 1.2740 zone. It is now facing hurdles near a connecting bearish trend line at 1.2800 and the 50-hour simple moving average. If there is a clear upside break above 1.2800, the pair could rise toward the 1.2880 level in the near term.

The next key resistance sits near the 1.2900 level, above which the GBP/USD pair might gain bullish momentum and revisit the 1.3000 zone.

On the downside, the first major support is near the 1.2740 zone, below which the pair could decline toward 1.2700. The next stop for the bears may perhaps be near the 1.2650 level.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.1265 zone. USD/JPY is rising and might aim to move above the 144.85 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis

• The Euro failed to clear 1.1265 and declined below 1.1090.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0965 on the daily chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY climbed above the 140.00 and 141.15 levels.
• There is a major bullish trend line in place with support at 139.00 on the daily chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the daily chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.1265 zone. The Euro declined below the 1.1090 support zone to move into a short-term bearish zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even spiked below 1.1000 before the bulls emerged near 1.0965. The euro seems to be finding bids near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0661 swing low to the 1.1275 high.

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0965. The main support on the EUR/USD chart is near the 50-day simple moving average at 1.0920.

The 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0661 swing low to the 1.1275 high is also near 1.0920. If there is a downside break below 1.0920, the pair could drop toward 1.0800. Any more losses could open the doors for a move to 1.0660.

On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near the 1.1090 zone, above which the bulls might aim for a steady increase. The next major resistance is near 1.1265. An upside break above 1.1265 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1340.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

On the daily chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a strong rise from the 130.50 zone. The US Dollar gained bullish momentum above 135.00 against the Japanese Yen.

Finally, the bears appeared near the 145.00 zone. A high was formed near 145.07 before a downside correction. The pair dipped below the 141.15 pivot level and tested the 137.55 zone. A low is formed near 137.24, and the pair is now attempting a fresh increase.

There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 145.07 swing high to the 137.24 low. It is now trading above the 50-day simple moving average.

Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 145.07 swing high to the 137.24 low at 143.20. The next major resistance is near 144.85. If there is a close above it, and RSI moves above 60, the pair could rise toward 146.20.

On the downside, the first major support is near 141.15. The next support is near a major bullish trend line at 139.00. If there is a close below 139.00, the pair could decline steadily.

In the stated case, EUR/USD might drop toward 137.55. If the bulls fail to protect the 137.55 zone, there could be a drop toward 135.00. The next stop for the bears may perhaps be near the 130.50 region.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

• Yesterday’s daily “Shooting Star” candlestick coupled with today’s long-body daily bearish candle increases the odds of a bearish breakdown below the 50-day moving average.
• Ongoing minor decline from the 1 August high of 33,490 high has reached an oversold condition, an imminent minor bounce may occur first before a potential new down leg.
• Key short-term resistance will be at 33,490.

The price actions of the Japan 225 Index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) have staged the expected up move and reached the 33,200 resistance (printed an intraday high of 33,494 yesterday, 1 August).

Thereafter, it declined by -2.75% to hit an intraday low of 32,544 in today, 2 August Asian session at this time of the writing.

The current weakness of the Index has been mainly attributed to the negative feedback loop triggered by US  sovereign debt credit downgrade to AA+ from AAA by Fitch Ratings that also spread to other major Asian benchmark stock indices intraday today; Hang Seng Index (-2.40%), Hang Seng TECH Index (-3.60%), CSI 300 (-0.90%), KOSPI 200 (-2.05%), ASX 200 (-1.29%), and Straits Times Index (-1.50%).

At the risk of breaking down below the 50-day moving average

Fig 1:  Japan 225 medium-term trend as of 2 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

Several medium-term negative elements have surfaced in the price actions of the Japan 225 Index. Yesterday’s price action has formed a daily “Shooting Star candlestick pattern that indicates the risk of a bearish reversal in sentiment.

Today’s longed-body bearish candlestick follow-through has increased the odds of such a bearish reversal that may see the Index break below its 50-day moving average (now at 32,590) that has supported the Index since 27 March 2023.

The potential break below the 50-day moving average may unleash a multi-week corrective decline within a major uptrend phase of the Index.

 Minor decline from the 1 August high of 33,490 reached an oversold condition

Fig 2:  Japan 225 minor short-term trend as of 2 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

The ongoing minor decline from yesterday, 1 August high of 33,490 has led the hourly RSI oscillator to reach its oversold region that indicates a potential imminent bounce may take shape due to overstretched price actions in the short-term.

Watch the 33,030 intermediate resistance (close to 50% Fibonacci retracement of the current minor decline from the 1 August high of 33,490 to today’s current intraday low of 32,544).

33,490 key short-term pivotal resistance to maintain the short-term bearish tone with the next supports coming in at 32,080, and 31,770 (12 July 2023 swing low).

On the flip side, a clearance above 33,490 invalidates the bearish tone to see the next resistances at 33,800 and 34,015 in the first step.