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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9615; (P) 0.9637; (R1) 0.9655; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral and outlook remains bearish. On the downside, break of 0.9601 will resume larger decline from 1.0095, and target 100% projection of 0.9995 to 0.9670 from 0.9840 at 0.9515. On the upside, however, break of 0.9684 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying bearish as the pair is capped well below falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9889). Down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is in favor to extend through 0.9407 at a later stage. Nevertheless, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal.

UK's economic landscape appears increasingly precarious, as evidenced by disappointing July PMI readings. Manufacturing PMI plunged to a 38-month low of 45.0, from 46.5 and underperforming expectation of 46.1. the Services PMI dipped to a 6-month low of 51.5, falling short of the anticipated 53.1, and down from 53.7. Composite PMI, encapsulating both sectors, dropped to a 6-month low of 50.7 from 52.8.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, expressed significant concern over these figures. "The UK economy has come close to stalling in July which, combined with gloomy forward-looking indicators, reignites recession worries," he noted. "July's flash PMI survey data revealed a deepening manufacturing downturn accompanied by a further cooling of the recent resurgence of growth in the service sector."

Further bolstering this pessimistic outlook, forward-looking indicators, such as order book inflows, levels of work-in-hand, and future business expectations, suggest a potential weakening of growth in the coming months. Williamson warned, "these all point to growth weakening further in the months ahead, adding to a risk of GDP falling in the third quarter."

While this decline in growth and demand paints a gloomy picture, there's a silver lining in the form of cooling inflationary pressures. "Although ongoing upward wage pressures mean service sector price growth remains elevated, the survey data signal further, potentially marked, falls in consumer price inflation in the months ahead," added Williamson.

Full UK PMI release here.

Eurozone's economic outlook appears increasingly gloomy as latest PMI readings for manufacturing and services sectors disappoint, suggesting further contraction may lie ahead. Manufacturing PMI declined to 42.7 in July from 43.4, a 38-month low and below expectations of 43.5. Simultaneously, Services PMI dropped to a 6-month low of 51.1, short of the projected 51.5, and down from 52.0. Composite PMI, reflecting both sectors, sank to an 8-month low of 48.9, down from 49.9.

Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, expressed his concern, stating, "Manufacturing continues to be the Achilles heel of the eurozone. Producers have cut their output again at an accelerated pace in July, while the services sector's activity is still expanding, though at a much slower rate than earlier in the year." He further warned, "The eurozone economy will likely move further into contraction territory in the months ahead, as the services sector keeps losing steam."

This less than encouraging data will surely unsettle ECB, as cost pressures in the private sector remain persistent, particularly in the substantial services sector. "The latest PMI reading is not going to please ECB officials...Thus, ECB president Christine Lagarde will certainly stick to her guns and hike interest rates by 25 bp at the next monetary meeting at the end of July," de la Rubia explained.

Meanwhile, France's manufacturing PMI slid to a 38-month low at 44.5, down from 46.0, while its services PMI fell to 47.4, a 29-month low, from 48.0. The composite PMI followed suit, dropping to a 32-month low at 46.6, dowm from 47.2.

Germany's manufacturing PMI took a dive from 40.6 to 38.8, also a 38-month low. Services declined to a 5-month low at 52.0 from 54.1, and the composite PMI fell to an 8-month low of 48.3, down from 50.6.

Full Eurozone PMI release here.

Gold had been in recovery mode after posting a false bearish breakout from its recent rangebound pattern. Even though the price sliced through the descending trendline that connects a series of lower highs since early June and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), it retraced lower after failing to claim the upper end of the rectangle.

The short-term oscillators are endorsing this latest correction but there are still no signs of a sustained downtrend. Specifically, the MACD lost some ground but remains above its red signal line, while the RSI retreated within the positive territory.

If the slide continues and the price declines below the 50-day SMA, the lower end of the rangebound pattern at 1,925 might be the first barrier for the bears to clear. A drop below the sideways pattern could ignite more selling pressures that might bring the three-month low of 1,893 under scrutiny. Further declines may then cease at the March resistance of 1,857, which could serve as support in the future.

Alternatively, bullish actions could propel bullion towards the recent rejection region of 1,987. Should that barricade fail, attention could shift towards the crucial 2,000 psychological mark. Even higher, the April peak of 2,048 could cap any upside attempts.

In brief, gold has been experiencing a mild correction due to its failure to break above its recent rectangle pattern. However, the technical picture could remain neutral for as long as the price fluctuates within this range.

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from well above 0.6800. The Aussie Dollar traded below the 0.6790 support and moved into a short-term bearish zone.

The pair even settled below the 50-hour simple moving average and tested 0.6720. The pair is now consolidating losses and facing resistance near the 0.6740 level. The first major hurdle for the bulls could be near the 50-hour simple moving average or 0.6760.

If there is an upside break above the 0.6760 zone, the pair could rise steadily toward the 0.6790 level. Any more gains might send AUD/USD toward 0.6845.

Conversely, the pair could continue to move down below 0.6720. The first major support is near the 0.6700 level, below which the pair could dive toward 0.6660. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6620 support.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1107; (P) 1.1126; (R1) 1.1144; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Fall form 1.1274 short term top should continue lower. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1011 resistance turned support holds. Above 1.1173 will resume larger up trend from 0.9534. However, firm break of 1.1011 will argue that larger correction is underway.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 is still expected to continue as long as 1.1011 resistance turned support holds. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next. However, firm break of 1.1011 will bring deeper fall back to 1.0634 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2811; (P) 1.2858; (R1) 1.2899; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.3141 short term top should extend to r 55 D EMA (now at 1.2692). On the upside, break of 1.2963 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside retest 1.3141 high instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.2678 resistance turned support holds, rise form 1.0351 (2022 low) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3895. However, sustained break of 1.2678 will argue that it's at least corrective this rally, with risk of bearish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8640; (P) 0.8659; (R1) 0.8678; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 0.8553 short term bottom would target 0.8818 support turned resistance. Rejection by 0.8818 will retain near term bearishness for another decline through 0.8553. Meanwhile for now, risk will stay mildly on the upside as long as 0.8553 holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the break of 0.8756 (2021 low) indicates break out from the long term range pattern. For now, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9146 resistance holds. Further fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 (2011 low) to 1.0342 (2016 high) at 0.8317 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.38; (P) 141.17 (R1) 142.59; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Rebound from 137.22 would target retesting 145.06 first. Firm break there will target 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 127.22 from 145.06 at 146.76 next. On the downside, below 139.74 minor support will bring retest of 137.22 instead.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that the second leg (the rise from 127.20) might not be over yet. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3176; (P) 1.3202; (R1) 1.3249; More....

USD/CAD is still bounded in range trading above 1.3091 and intraday bias stays neutral first. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3386 resistance holds. Break of 1.3091 will resume larger fall and target 61.8% projection of 1.3653 to 1.3115 from 1.3386 at 1.3054. However, firm break of 1.3386 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) only. But even so, deeper decline is expected as long as 1.3386 resistance holds. Further fall could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.2758. Meanwhile, break of 1.3386 will be a sign that the correction has completed and bring stronger rally back to retest 1.3976.