Sample Category Title

DXY:

The DXY index is currently demonstrating a bearish momentum, indicating a possible continued downward movement towards the 1st support level.

The intermediate support level is found at 101.39 and is characterized as a pullback support. This level also aligns with a 127.20% Fibonacci extension and a 78.60% Fibonacci projection levels, enhancing its significance as a potential stabilization point in the event of a price decline.

Should the price continue to drop, the 1st support situated at 101.01, an overlap support, could offer another layer of stability.

In contrast, if the price reverses its course, it could encounter the 1st resistance at 101.69, characterized as an overlap resistance. This level could serve as a potential barrier to upward price movements.

If the price manages to surpass the 1st resistance, it could aim for the 2nd resistance level positioned at 102.29. This level also serves as an overlap resistance, marking another potential point of resistance.

EUR/USD:

The EUR/USD pair is currently displaying a bullish trend, indicating a potential for a bullish continuation towards the 1st resistance level.

On the downside, the price may find substantial support at the 1st level of 1.1007, identified as an overlap support, which can provide significant stability for the price. A further descent could be cushioned by the 2nd support level at 1.0972, another overlap support.

On the upside, the price may continue its bullish trend towards the 1st resistance level at 1.1068. This overlap resistance coincides with a 61.80% Fibonacci projection level, bolstering its significance.

If the price manages to surpass this resistance, it might aim for the 2nd resistance level at 1.1097. This overlap resistance aligns with a -27% Fibonacci expansion level, adding further weight to its role as a potential barrier to further price increases.

EUR/JPY:

The EUR/JPY instrument currently demonstrates a bearish momentum. It is anticipated that the price may continue its downward movement towards the 1st support.

The 1st support level is located at 153.43 and is considered significant due to its role as an overlap support, as well as its alignment with the 78.60% Fibonacci projection and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a Fibonacci confluence.

The 2nd support level is positioned at 151.68 and is recognized as a strong support level, representing an overlap support and aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

Moving on to the resistance levels, the 1st resistance is found at 154.20 and is deemed significant due to its status as an overlap resistance. The 2nd resistance level is situated at 155.32 and is considered noteworthy as it represents an overlap resistance.

EUR/GBP:

The EUR/GBP pair currently demonstrates a bearish momentum. This is supported by the fact that the price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud, which contributes to the overall downward trend.

Given this bearish momentum, there is potential for the price to continue its downward movement towards the 1st support level. The 1st support level is located at 0.8492 and is considered significant as it represents an overlap support and aligns with the 61.80% Fibonacci projection.

The 2nd support level is positioned at 151.6800 and is recognized as a strong support level. It represents a swing low support, and it aligns with the -61.8% Fibonacci expansion and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a Fibonacci confluence.

On the other hand, the 1st resistance is found at 154.2000 and is significant due to its overlap resistance. The 2nd resistance level is situated at 155.3200 and is considered noteworthy as it represents an overlap resistance.

GBP/USD:

The GBP/USD pair is presently exhibiting a bullish momentum, signifying a potential bullish continuation towards the 1st resistance level.

The 1st support is found at 1.2847 and is recognized as an overlap support, offering a critical level of price stability. Further, the 2nd support level is located at 1.2754, another overlap support, offering additional assurance in case of a downward price move.

On the upward side, the price may continue its bullish movement towards the 1st resistance level at 1.2999. This overlap resistance aligns with a 78.60% Fibonacci retracement and a 78.60% Fibonacci projection levels in addition to the 161.80% Fibonacci expansion level, , indicating a Fibonacci confluence.

Should the price breach this level, the next target could be the 2nd resistance level at 1.3143. This overlap resistance coincides with a 100% Fibonacci projection level, providing another potential hurdle for further price ascension.

GBP/JPY:

The GBP/JPY instrument currently exhibits a bearish momentum. It is anticipated that the price may continue its downward movement towards the 1st support level.

1st supportt level is located at 179.95 and is considered significant as it represents a swing low support and aligns with the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level. 2nd level is positioned at 178.85 and is recognized as a strong support level. It represents an overlap support and aligns with the 127.20% Fibonacci extension.

Moving on to the resistance levels, 1st resistance is found at 182.10 and is considered significant due to its status as an overlap resistance. 2nd resistance level is situated at 183.89 and is notable as it represents a multi-swing high resistance.

USD/CHF:

The USD/CHF pair is currently showcasing a bearish momentum, implying a potential bearish continuation towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support is located at 0.8779, which serves as an overlap support. Additionally, this support level is aligned with both a 61.80% and a 100% Fibonacci projection levels, thereby bolstering its significance in providing price stability.

In terms of resistance, the 1st resistance level is spotted at 0.8828 and is classified as an overlap resistance. This could potentially act as an obstacle to any upward price movement. Further, should the price breach this level, it could face the 2nd resistance located at 0.8868, another overlap resistance, potentially stalling further ascension.

USD/JPY:

The USD/JPY chart is currently demonstrating a bearish momentum, indicating the potential for a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support is situated at 138.73, functioning as an overlap support. This level also aligns with a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement and a 78.60% Fibonacci projection levels, thereby emphasizing its importance.

Furthermore, the 2nd support level at 137.73 acts as another overlap support and coincides with a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, bolstering its significance as a potential barrier to the bearish trajectory.

On the flip side, if the price starts to reverse its course, the 1st resistance at 140.92, classified as an overlap resistance, might provide a significant challenge to the bullish movement. Additionally, the 2nd resistance level at 142.09, another overlap resistance, could pose further resistance to upward price movements.

USD/CAD:

The USD/CAD currency pair is currently demonstrating a bearish momentum, suggesting a possible continuation of the downward trend in the near term. This is indicated by the potential for a bearish break off the 1st support level.

The 1st support level is placed at 1.3206, a point that has shown significant overlap support in the past. Its significance is further emphasized as it aligns with a 78.60% Fibonacci projection level. Should the bearish momentum persist, we might see the price breaking through this support and potentially heading towards the 2nd support level.

The 2nd support level is located at 1.3131, another critical price point identified by its characteristic as an overlap support. Furthermore, this level is also in line with a 145.00% Fibonacci extension level, further solidifying its position as a potential target in a continued bearish trend.

On the contrary, if the bearish momentum is halted and the price shifts in the opposite direction, we would expect the pair to encounter resistance levels. The 1st resistance level lies at 1.3271, a point that has provided overlap resistance in the past, potentially hindering an upward price movement.

Beyond that, the 2nd resistance level, identified at 1.3305, is classified as a pullback resistance. This indicates that should the price reach this point, there could be an increased likelihood of a slowdown in the bullish trend.

AUD/USD:

The AUD/USD currency pair is currently showcasing a bullish trend. This positive momentum is primarily attributed to the price breaking above a descending resistance line, which is potentially triggering a bullish move in the short term. The price could possibly continue its bullish trajectory towards the 1st resistance level.

The 1st support level is noted at 0.6708 and has been identified as an overlap support. Should the bullish momentum wane and the price experiences a decline, this level could serve as a reliable foundation.

The 2nd support is found at 0.6655, serving as a pullback support. This level could play a crucial role if a more substantial price correction were to occur, helping to potentially reverse the downward trend.

On the flip side, should the bullish momentum persist, the 1st resistance is expected at 0.6747. It’s marked as an overlap resistance and aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, which may further solidify this resistance level.

Beyond the 1st resistance, if the price continues to climb, the 2nd resistance is located at 0.6806. This level is noted as a pullback resistance and could potentially pose a substantial barrier to continued upward price movements.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair currently exhibits a bullish trend, supported by the fact that the price is situated above a significant ascending trend line. The price could potentially continue its bullish direction towards the 1st resistance level.

The 1st support is identified at 0.6219 and is considered as an overlap support, a level that provides a robust foundation for the price. If the price were to retrace from its current position, this level could act as a strong buffer.

Further beneath the 1st support, the 2nd support is located at 0.6165, and it also serves as an overlap support. This level could provide additional backing for the price in the event of a more significant downward correction.

On the contrary, if the bullish momentum is sustained, the price could meet the 1st resistance at 0.6249. This level is characterized as a swing high resistance and aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci projection level.

If the price manages to breach the 1st resistance, it could then encounter the 2nd resistance placed at 0.6302. This level is noted as a multi-swing high resistance and corresponds to a 100% Fibonacci projection level.

DJ30:

The DJ30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) chart is currently exhibiting a bullish momentum. There is potential for the price to continue its upward movement towards the 1st resistance.

The 1st support level is at 33867.09 and is considered significant due to its overlap support. The 2nd support level is positioned at 33635.40 and is recognized as a strong support level as it represents a multi-swing low support and aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

Moving on to the resistance levels, the 1st resistance is found at 34503.92 and is significant because it represents a multi-swing high resistance. Additionally, there is an intermediate resistance level at 34350.07. This level is considered notable due to its overlap resistance and correlation with the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level.

GER30:

The GER30 (DAX) chart currently shows a bullish momentum. There is potential for the price to continue its upward movement towards the 1st resistance.

The 1st support level is located at 15702.38 and is considered significant due to its overlap support. The 2nd support level is positioned at 15483.16 and is recognized as a strong support level, representing a multi-swing low support.

Moving on to the resistance levels, the 1st resistance is found at 15926.65. This resistance level is significant as it represents an overlap resistance, a 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, and a 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a Fibonacci confluence.

Additionally, the 2nd resistance level is situated at 16216.44 and is considered noteworthy due to its status as a swing high resistance.

US500

The US500 (S&P 500) chart currently exhibits a bullish momentum. There is potential for the price to continue its upward movement towards the 1st resistance.

The 1st support level is located at 4431.4 and is considered significant as it represents an overlap support. The 2nd support level is positioned at 4383.9 and is recognized as a strong support level, representing a multi-swing low support and aligning with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level.

Moving on to the resistance levels, the 1st resistance is found at 4455.7. This resistance level is significant as it represents a multi-swing high resistance, a 61.80% Fibonacci projection, and a 127.20% Fibonacci extension, indicating a Fibonacci confluence.

Additionally, the 2nd resistance level is situated at 4478.8 and is considered noteworthy as it represents a swing high resistance, along with a 78.60% Fibonacci projection and a 161.80% Fibonacci extension, indicating another Fibonacci confluence.

BTC/USD:

The BTC/USD instrument is currently showing a neutral overall momentum. It’s conceivable that the price might fluctuate between the 1st support and 1st resistance levels. The 1st support is positioned at 29826 and is viewed as strong due to its overlap support and a 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement.

The 2nd support, found at 28274, is also considered robust due to its overlap support and a 50% Fibonacci Retracement.

On the other hand, the 1st resistance is located at 31457 and is deemed significant owing to its multi-swing high resistance and a 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement. The 2nd resistance, at 32252, is notable for its swing high resistance nature, which could potentially pose a significant obstacle for any upward movement in price.

ETH/USD:

The ETH/USD instrument is currently on a bearish trend, largely attributed to the price trading below the bearish Ichimoku cloud.

As the trend proceeds, it’s probable that the price might continue on this bearish direction towards the 1st support, positioned at 1826.24. This support level is regarded as strong due to its character as a multi-swing low support.

Further on, the 2nd support stands at 1763.33 and is considered strong due to its overlap support and a 50% Fibonacci Retracement.

On the other hand, the 1st resistance is positioned at 1916.21 and is recognized as significant due to its overlap resistance and a 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement. The 2nd resistance, found at 1975.62, is also notable as it represents swing high resistance, and could potentially pose an obstacle to any upward price movements.

An intermediate support level is also noticeable at 1846.13, recognized as durable due to its status as a multi-swing low support.

WTI/USD:

The WTI/USD pair is currently showing a bullish momentum, suggesting the possibility of a continued upward movement towards the 1st resistance level.

The 1st support level is found at 74.25 and is characterized as an overlap support. If the price were to drop, this level could act as a strong buffer.

Should the price fall below the 1st support, the 2nd support located at 72.78 stands as another overlap support, offering an additional layer of support.

Conversely, if the bullish momentum continues, the price may encounter the 1st resistance at 76.65. This level acts as an overlap resistance and aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and a 161.8% Fibonacci extension level, indicating a potential barrier for upward price movements.

If the price manages to break through the 1st resistance, it could aim for the 2nd resistance at 78.93. This level also presents as an overlap resistance, marking another significant point of potential resistance.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

The XAU/USD pair currently exhibits a bullish momentum, a development triggered by a break above a descending resistance line which suggests a possible bullish continuation.

On the downside, if the price retreats, it could find substantial support at the 1st level of 1931.62, which is characterized as an overlap support. Further down, a 2nd support level is found at 1912.73, also serving as an overlap support.

On the upside, the price could potentially continue its bullish movement towards the 1st resistance level at 1952.62. This resistance level, characterized as an overlap resistance, aligns with a 78.60% Fibonacci retracement, further strengthening its significance.

Should the price breach this level, it might aim for the 2nd resistance level at 1967.38, which is another overlap resistance and could serve as a significant barrier to further price ascents.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2880; (P) 1.2907; (R1) 1.2960; More...

GBP/USD's rally continues today and hit as high as 1.2968 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3095. On the downside, below 1.2884 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 1.2341) is a medium term bullish sign. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2306 support holds. Rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom (2022 low) is expected to extend further to retest 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

Dollar is facing an intensified selloff in today's Asian trading session, with the currency's decline appearing to accelerate. The return of risk-on sentiment, signaled by overnight gains in major US stock indexes, has added additional weight on the greenback. Market watchers are eagerly anticipating the release of US CPI data today, as they seek further evidence to back their prediction that Fed's anticipated rate hike later this month could be the last in the current cycle.

Elsewhere in the currency markets, New Zealand Dollar is posting marginal gains after RBNZ held its rates steady, while Australian Dollar is also up slightly. But these gains are largely overshadowed by the impressive rally of Yen, which is building further momentum in a bullish reversal. On the other hand, Canadian Dollar is showing weakness ahead of BoC's anticipated rate hike today, despite it surpassing a near-term resistance against the US Dollar. Swiss Franc is exhibiting weakness for the time being too, whereas Euro and British Pound are experiencing a mixed trading session.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.64%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.08%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.15%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.52%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.018 at 0.474. Overnight, DOW rose 0.93%. S&P 500 rose 0.67%. NASDAQ rose 0.55%. 10-year yield dropped -0.026 to 3.980.

RBNZ holds OCR steady at 5.5%, expresses confidence in returning inflation to target range

In line with broad expectations, RBNZ keeps OCR unchanged at 5.5%, as tightening cycle has finally entered in to a pause phase.

RBNZ expressed its confidence in the current restrictive interest rate level, stating, "consumer price inflation will return to within its target range of 1 to 3% per annum, while supporting maximum sustainable employment."

When discussing their Remit objectives, the Committee noted that it still expects inflation to fall within the target band by the second half of 2024. Risks surrounding the inflation projection as being "broadly balanced". While employment remains above its maximum sustainable level, recent indicators suggest that "labour market conditions are easing."

RBNZ also acknowledged the slight contraction in economic activity in Q1. It added that "growth is likely to remain weak in the near term."

NZD/USD edges higher on Dollar weakness after RBNZ

NZD/USD inches higher today, following RBNZ decision to hold its interest rate steady at 5.50%. However, this uptick seems more driven by prevailing slight risk-on sentiment, and a weaker Dollar rather than the central bank's decision itself.

From a technical perspective, while further short-term rally in NZD/USD seems probable, there isn't yet a clear signal for bullish trend reversal. The pair remains capped below declining trend line, initiated from February's high of 0.6537. Moreover, price action from 0.5894 do not exhibit a clear impulsive structure, suggesting it could be merely a corrective pattern within the broader decline from 0.6537.

On the downside, break of 0.6131 support will argue that the fall from 0.6537 is ready to resume through 0.5984 low.

RBA Lowe: Further tightening possible, look into new forecasts in Aug

RBA Governor Philip Lowe noted the current economic outlook is a "complex picture" with significant uncertainties". He said in a speech today, "the Board decided that, having already increased rates substantially, it was appropriate to hold interest rates steady this month and re-examine the situation next month."

Looking ahead, Lowe noted, "It is possible that some further tightening will be required to return inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe," adding that requirement for further action will largely depend on evolution of the economy and inflation.

He highlighted that the Board will be provided with an updated set of economic forecasts, a revised risk assessment, and fresh data on inflation, the global economy, labour market, and household spending at the next meeting in August to inform its decision-making process.

He pointed to recent forecasts in May which saw inflation returning to top of target band in "mid-2025:. But he acknowledge, Data received since then had suggested that the inflation risks had shifted somewhat to the upside."

DOW staying bullish with overnight bounce, US CPI on radar

US major stock indexes rallied overnight, breaking a three-session losing streak as investors eagerly await June US consumer inflation report, expected later today. Economists forecast a moderation in headline CPI from 4.0% to 3.1%, with core CPI also expected to decelerate from 5.3% to 5.0%.

Market participants have already factored in a quarter-point hike at Fed's July 25-26 meeting, with an over 90% likelihood priced in. As it stands, the probability of an additional rate hike for the remaining part of the year is below 50%. These odds could shift depending on whether today's core CPI data undershoots, and by what margin.

As for DOW, the strong support from 55 D EMA (now at 33724.42) is clearly a near term bullish sign. Break of 34588.68 resistance will confirm resumption of recent rally. But the real test would lie in 61.8% projection of 28660.94 to 34712.28 from 31429.82 at 35169.54. Clear break of this projection level is needed to set the stage for further rally in the rest of H2. Meanwhile, a dip today or in the near term wouldn't be disastrous as long as 32586.66 support stays intact.

BoC to hike but what next? CAD/JPY extending near term fall

As BoC is widely expected to raise interest rates by another 25 bps to 5.00% today, the financial market awaits the answer on whether this move marks the end of the current tightening cycle. The hike today is expected after the bank restarted tightening last month, with many speculating that terminal rate could be reached with this adjustment.

However, the future pathway is fraught with uncertainties, and the key focus will be on how BoC chooses to communicate its stance. There are anticipations that Governor Tiff Macklem may maintain a hawkish tone, keeping options open and underscoring the bank's determination to combat inflation that continues to overshoot target. Alternatively, the bank may more explicitly signal another "conditional pause", like it did in January. Regardless of the approach, the new economic forecasts to be released today will be crucial in underpinning their message.

Some previews on BoC:

• Will BoC Hit the Hike Button Again?
• BoC to Hike Again Amid "Persistent Excess Demand"

CAD/JPY is continuing the fall from 109.48 short term top today. The favored case is that this decline from 109.48 is the third leg of the pattern from 110.87 high. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 104.86) would solidify this bearish case and target 38.2% retracement of 94.04 to 109.48 at 103.58 next. Break of 106.85 minor resistance will mix up the outlook and bring recovery first. But even in this case, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 109.48 resistance holds.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2880; (P) 1.2907; (R1) 1.2960; More...

GBP/USD's rally continues today and hit as high as 1.2968 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3095. On the downside, below 1.2884 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 1.2341) is a medium term bullish sign. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2306 support holds. Rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom (2022 low) is expected to extend further to retest 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Revised
23:50	JPY	PPI Y/Y Jun	4.10%	4.50%	5.10%	5.20%
23:50	JPY	Machinery Orders M/M May	-7.60%	1.20%	5.50%
02:00	NZD	RBNZ Interest Rate Decision	5.50%	5.50%	5.50%
12:30	USD	CPI M/M Jun		0.30%	0.10%
12:30	USD	CPI Y/Y Jun		3.10%	4.00%
12:30	USD	CPI Core M/M Jun		0.30%	0.40%
12:30	USD	CPI Core Y/Y Jun		5.00%	5.30%
14:00	CAD	BoC Interest Rate Decision		5.00%	4.75%
14:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories		-1.1M	-1.5M
15:00	CAD	BoC Press Conference
18:00	USD	Fed's Beige Book

US major stock indexes rallied overnight, breaking a three-session losing streak as investors eagerly await June US consumer inflation report, expected later today. Economists forecast a moderation in headline CPI from 4.0% to 3.1%, with core CPI also expected to decelerate from 5.3% to 5.0%.

Market participants have already factored in a quarter-point hike at Fed's July 25-26 meeting, with an over 90% likelihood priced in. As it stands, the probability of an additional rate hike for the remaining part of the year is below 50%. These odds could shift depending on whether today's core CPI data undershoots, and by what margin.

As for DOW, the strong support from 55 D EMA (now at 33724.42) is clearly a near term bullish sign. Break of 34588.68 resistance will confirm resumption of recent rally. But the real test would lie in 61.8% projection of 28660.94 to 34712.28 from 31429.82 at 35169.54. Clear break of this projection level is needed to set the stage for further rally in the rest of H2. Meanwhile, a dip today or in the near term wouldn't be disastrous as long as 32586.66 support stays intact.

As BoC is widely expected to raise interest rates by another 25 bps to 5.00% today, the financial market awaits the answer on whether this move marks the end of the current tightening cycle. The hike today is expected after the bank restarted tightening last month, with many speculating that terminal rate could be reached with this adjustment.

However, the future pathway is fraught with uncertainties, and the key focus will be on how BoC chooses to communicate its stance. There are anticipations that Governor Tiff Macklem may maintain a hawkish tone, keeping options open and underscoring the bank's determination to combat inflation that continues to overshoot target. Alternatively, the bank may more explicitly signal another "conditional pause", like it did in January. Regardless of the approach, the new economic forecasts to be released today will be crucial in underpinning their message.

Some previews on BoC:

• Will BoC Hit the Hike Button Again?
• BoC to Hike Again Amid "Persistent Excess Demand"

CAD/JPY is continuing the fall from 109.48 short term top today. The favored case is that this decline from 109.48 is the third leg of the pattern from 110.87 high. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 104.86) would solidify this bearish case and target 38.2% retracement of 94.04 to 109.48 at 103.58 next. Break of 106.85 minor resistance will mix up the outlook and bring recovery first. But even in this case, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 109.48 resistance holds.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe noted the current economic outlook is a "complex picture" with significant uncertainties". He said in a speech today, "the Board decided that, having already increased rates substantially, it was appropriate to hold interest rates steady this month and re-examine the situation next month."

Looking ahead, Lowe noted, "It is possible that some further tightening will be required to return inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe," adding that requirement for further action will largely depend on evolution of the economy and inflation.

He highlighted that the Board will be provided with an updated set of economic forecasts, a revised risk assessment, and fresh data on inflation, the global economy, labour market, and household spending at the next meeting in August to inform its decision-making process.

He pointed to recent forecasts in May which saw inflation returning to top of target band in "mid-2025:. But he acknowledge, Data received since then had suggested that the inflation risks had shifted somewhat to the upside."

Full speech of RBA Lowe here.

NZD/USD inches higher today, following RBNZ decision to hold its interest rate steady at 5.50%. However, this uptick seems more driven by prevailing slight risk-on sentiment, and a weaker Dollar rather than the central bank's decision itself.

From a technical perspective, while further short-term rally in NZD/USD seems probable, there isn't yet a clear signal for bullish trend reversal. The pair remains capped below declining trend line, initiated from February's high of 0.6537. Moreover, price action from 0.5894 do not exhibit a clear impulsive structure, suggesting it could be merely a corrective pattern within the broader decline from 0.6537.

On the downside, break of 0.6131 support will argue that the fall from 0.6537 is ready to resume through 0.5984 low.

In line with broad expectations, RBNZ keeps OCR unchanged at 5.5%, as tightening cycle has finally entered in to a pause phase.

RBNZ expressed its confidence in the current restrictive interest rate level, stating, "consumer price inflation will return to within its target range of 1 to 3% per annum, while supporting maximum sustainable employment."

When discussing their Remit objectives, the Committee noted that it still expects inflation to fall within the target band by the second half of 2024. Risks surrounding the inflation projection as being "broadly balanced". While employment remains above its maximum sustainable level, recent indicators suggest that "labour market conditions are easing."

RBNZ also acknowledged the slight contraction in economic activity in Q1. It added that "growth is likely to remain weak in the near term."

Full RBNZ statement here.

Key Highlights

• Gold price is rising above the $1,925 resistance.
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $1,942 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD is aiming for more gains above 1.1010.
• The US Consumer Price Index could decline from 4% to 3.1% in June 2023 (YoY).

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price formed a support base above $1,900 against the US Dollar. The price started a steady increase above the $1,920 and $1,925 resistance levels.

The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price was able to settle above $1,925 and the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours). There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,967 swing high to the $1,892 low.

However, it is now facing a key barrier at $1,945. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,942 and the 200 Simple Moving Average (green, 4 hours).

The trend line is also close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,967 swing high to the $1,892 low. The next major resistance is near the $1,950 level, above which the price could rise toward $1,965.

Any more gains might send the price toward the $1,980 resistance level. Initial support is near the $1,925 level. The next major support is near $1,910.

If the bulls fail to protect the $1,910 support, there is a risk of a major decline. In the stated case, the price could decline toward the $1,890 level.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair is showing positive signs but it is still struggling to gain bullish momentum above 1.1010.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• US Consumer Price Index for June 2023 (MoM) – Forecast +0.3%, versus +0.1% previous.
• US Consumer Price Index for June 2023 (YoY) – Forecast +3.1%, versus +4% previous.
• US Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy for June 2023 (YoY) – Forecast +5.0%, versus +5.3% previous.
• BoC Interest Rate Decision – Forecast 5.0%, versus 4.75% previous.

• GBPAUD broke resistance level 1.9260
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.9535

GBPAUD currency pair under the bullish pressure after the earlier breakout of the resistance level 1.9260, top of the previous minor impulse wave (i) from June.

The breakout of the resistance level 1.9260 accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and iii, which belong to the extended impulse sequence (3) from February.

Given the strong multi-month uptrend, GBPAUD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.9535 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).