Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6615; (P) 0.6647; (R1) 0.6675; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral first with current recovery. Overall, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6792 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6563 support will resume the decline form 0.7156 to 61.8% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6563 from 0.6792 at 0.6426.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3479; (P) 1.3516; (R1) 1.3548; More....

Range trading continues in USD/CAD and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another fall is in favor with 1.3563 minor resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.3405 will resume the decline from 1.3860, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.3976, to 1.3224/61 support zone. Strong support should be seen around there to bring rebound. Meanwhile, firm break of 1.3563 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3860 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.3976 will confirm resumption and target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3261 at 1.4234. Firm break there will pave the way to long term resistance zone at 1.4667/89 (2016, 2020 highs). On the downside, sustained break of 55 week EMA (now at 1.3282) is needed to confirm medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9861; (P) 0.9875; (R1) 0.9891; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral for the moment. With 0.9837 support intact, rise from 0.9704 is still in favor to resume later. Break of 0.9995 will target a retest on 1.0067 high. However, firm break of 0.9837 will indicate that the rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9704 low.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 55 week EMA (now at 1.1002) and 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. That is, down trend from 1.2004 is not completed yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 resistance will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal. Rise from 0.9407 should then target 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.22; (P) 144.69; (R1) 145.57; More....

Range trading continues in EUR/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 145.66 will resume recent rebound from 137.37. Further rally should then be seen to retest 148.38 high. On the downside, break of 142.53 will target 138.83 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 139.78) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40. Decisive break there will raise the chance of trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 127.39.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 164.33; (P) 164.91; (R1) 166.02; More...

GBP/JPY is still bounded in range below 166.38 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 166.38, and sustained trading above 165.99 resistance will resume the whole rebound from 155.33 to 169.26 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 162.75 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias to the downside for 158.24 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 123.94 (2020 low) to 172.11 (2022 high) at 153.70 holds, medium term bullishness is retained. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Break of 172.11 high to resume such up trend is expected at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8759; (P) 0.8776; (R1) 0.8787; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/GBP and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.8864 will target 0.8924 resistance first. Firm break there should resume larger rise from 0.8545 through 0.8977 high. However, decisive break of 0.8717 support will resume the decline from 0.8977 instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains rather mixed for now, except that price actions from 0.9267 (2022 high) are part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). With 0.8720 support intact, rise from 0.8545 is in favor to continue through 0.8977. However, firm break of 0.8720 will argue that such rebound has completed, and open up deeper fall through this support level.

GBPUSD has reversed back down again after finding resistance at the ten-month high of 1.2525 in the preceding week but is currently trying to recoup some of the losses.

The momentum indicators are showing some contradictory signs as the MACD is still standing beneath its trigger line in the positive area, while the RSI is pointing slightly up above the neutral threshold of 50. The 20- and the 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) posted a bullish crossover, and the price is still well above the long-term ascending trend line.

However, further losses should see the 20-day SMA at 1.2320 ahead of the 1.2270 support level and the 50-day SMA at 1.2145 which is acting as a major obstacle. A drop below the uptrend line would hit the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward wave from 1.0325 to 1.2525 at 1.2000 and open the way towards the 200-day SMA at 1.1905.

In the event of an upside reversal, the ten-month peak of 1.2525 could act as a barrier before being able to re-challenge the 1.2665 resistance, registered in May 2022. Further gains would lead the way towards the 1.2850 barrier, which coincides with the 200-weekly SMA and the low in November 2020.

Briefly, in the long term, the outlook remains positive since prices hold above all the moving average lines and the bullish cross between the 20- and the 50-day SMA stays in place.

The current chart shows that NZDUSD in the long term may form a corrective zigzag pattern consisting of primary waves.

The first impulse wave. has been successfully completed. A bearish correction. is under development, the internal structure of which is similar to a zigzag (A)-(B)-(C). Impulse (A) and correction (B) can be considered completed.

In the near future, the price may drop in the intermediate impulse (C) to 0.590. At that level, primary correction will be at 61.8% of actionary wave.

Alternatively, only the first impulse wave (A) is completed inside the primary correction, and the intermediate correction (B) is likely to continue to form.

It is assumed that the correction (B) takes the form of a minor triple zigzag, in which the first four parts could end. In the near future, market participants may observe a rise in the price in the final actionary wave Z.

Most likely, the price will rise to 0.643. At that level, correction (B) will be at 76.4% along the Fibonacci lines of impulse (A).

Markets

Europe was still enjoying a four-day Easter weekend yesterday. The US had less time off with both equity and bond markets again fully open. The absence of other important economic data allowed Friday’s payrolls release to linger on. That March report was overall slightly stronger than expected, ending a streak of disappointing data earlier that week. After shooting higher by almost 15 bps during a holiday-shortened session end last week, Treasury yields added another 1.7-3 bps across the curve under lower-than-usual volumes. The dollar gained against most of the majors. The trade-weighted index advanced from 102.09 to 102.57. EUR/USD swapped 1.09 for a close at 1.0859. The Japanese yen ended last vs comparable peers. USD/JPY added one and a half big figure to 133.61. Aside from higher core bond yields, the currency suffered from Bank of Japan governor Ueda at his inaugural news conference sticking to YCC and negative interest rates for now. An intraday improvement on Wall Street didn’t help either. The likes of the Nasdaq gapped 1.35% lower at the open in a catch-up move with Friday’s US yield surge (equity markets did close on Good Friday). Stocks eventually finished flat to slightly higher (DJI +0.3%).

Asian-Pacific markets draw comfort from WS’s intraday recovery. Stocks in Korea and Japan outperform, China lags behind. News revolves around the Bank of Korea’s policy decision (cfr. infra) as well as Chinese inflation numbers. PPI inflation declined by the expected 2.5% y/y but CPI (0.7% y/y) missed a 1% consensus. The yuan trades stable around 6.88 USD/CNY with a generally better-offered dollar containing the damage for the Chinese currency. EUR/USD ekes out a gain to trade in the high 1.08 area. US cash yields shed a few bps but Bund yields are set for a gap higher in a catch-up move with Friday and to a lesser extent Monday. Trading for the remainder of the day will be technically and sentiment driven. With the exception of the IMF’s updated World Economic Outlook, the calendar eyes meagre today. That changes starting tomorrow, with US CPI numbers and the Fed meeting minutes due. US retail sales and U. of  Michigan consumer confidence are scheduled for release on Friday, together with the (unofficial) start of the Q1 earnings season. Quotes from IMF/World Bank spring meetings will hit the screens all week. Support in the US 10y yield at the 3.30% area survived but it’ll take a return at least above 3.50% for the immediate downside alert to be called off. The 2y yield tries to take out the 4% barrier. The technical picture in the German 10y looks less dramatic. First resistance here is located at 2.40%. In case equity sentiment holds up, EUR/USD should soon finds its way back above 1.09. The 1.0973 April high serves as the first meaningful resistance.

News Headlines

The Bank of Korea kept its policy rate as expected unchanged at 3.5% for a second meeting running. The decision was unanimous. The Board keeps a hawkish bias when it comes to further rate increases while adding that the restrictive policy stance will be maintained for a considerable time with an emphasis on ensuring price stability. It is forecast that inflation will continue to be above the 2% target level for a considerable time although it is projected to continue to slow, and uncertainties surrounding the policy decision are also judged to be high with increasing risks to the financial sector in major countries. Consumer price inflation for this year is expected to be consistent with the February forecast of 3.5%. Meanwhile, it is judged that core inflation is likely to be somewhat higher than the February forecast of 3% for this year, considering its slow pace of decline recently.

The NY Fed yesterday released its March Survey of Consumer Expectations. It showed that inflation expectations increased at the short-term (1y; 4.7% from 4.2%; first increase since October) and medium-term (3y; 2.8% from 2.7%) horizons, but decreased slightly at the longer-term horizon (5y; 2.5% from 2.6%). Especially expectations for the cost of college education increased. Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth remained unchanged at 3% in March with median expected growth in household income up 0.1 ppt to 3.3%. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 11.4%. Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated in March, with the share of households reporting it is harder to obtain credit than one year ago rising and reaching a series high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6317; (P) 1.6352; (R1) 1.6388; More...

EUR/AUD dips slightly lower today but stays well above 1.6216 minor support. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6216 should confirm short term topping, after rejection by 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance zone. Intraday bias will be back on the downside in this case, to 1.6033 support and possibly below. However, on the upside, decisive break of 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance zone will carry larger bullish implications.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.