Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2386; (P) 1.2421; (R1) 1.2452; More...

GBP/USD's retreat from 1.2524 extends lower today but stays well above 1.2203 resistance turned support. Intraday bias remains neutral and another rally is in favor. On the upside, break of 1.2524 will target 1.2759 fibonacci level first. Firm break there will target 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3095.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.0351 medium term term bottom (2022 low) is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 (2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759. Sustained break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Further break of 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3095 could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.3895. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.1801 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9036; (P) 0.9058; (R1) 0.9082; More...

USD/CHF's recovery from 0.9005 extends higher today but stays below 0.9118 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.9005 and sustained trading below 38.2% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9058 from 0.9439 at 0.9023 will extend the down trend from 1.0146 to 61.8% projection at 0.8767. However, break of 0.9118 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9439 resistance holds, and fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is still in progress. Prior rejection by 55 week EMA was a medium term bearish sign. Sustained of 0.9058 will resume such decline towards 0.8756 support (2021 low). But overall, this fall is still as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6674; (P) 0.6724; (R1) 0.6771; More...

The break of 0.6650 minor support suggests that AUD/USD's recovery from 0.6563 has completed at 0.6792 already. That came after rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.7156 to 0.6563 at 0.6790. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.6563 and below. Sustained break there will resume the fall from 0.7156 to 61.8% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6563 from 0.6792 at 0.6426. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6792 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3486; (P) 1.3508; (R1) 1.3537; More....

USD/CAD's recovery from 1.3405 extends higher today but stays below 1.3563 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains on neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.3405 will resume the decline from 1.3860, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.3976, to 1.3224/61 support zone. Strong support should be seen around there to bring rebound. Meanwhile, firm break of 1.3563 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3860 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.3976 will confirm resumption and target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3261 at 1.4234. Firm break there will pave the way to long term resistance zone at 1.4667/89 (2016, 2020 highs). On the downside, sustained break of 55 week EMA (now at 1.3282) is needed to confirm medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8767; (P) 0.8779; (R1) 0.8791; More...

Outlook in EUR/GBP is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 0.8864 will target 0.8924 resistance first. Firm break there should resume larger rise from 0.8545 through 0.8977 high. However, decisive break of 0.8717 support will resume the decline from 0.8977 instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains rather mixed for now, except that price actions from 0.9267 (2022 high) are part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). With 0.8720 support intact, rise from 0.8545 is in favor to continue through 0.8977. However, firm break of 0.8720 will argue that such rebound has completed, and open up deeper fall through this support level.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6314; (P) 1.6354; (R1) 1.6392; More...

No change in EUR/AUD's outlook as further rally is expected with 1.6033 support intact. Decisive break of 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance zone will carry larger bullish implications. However, firm break of 1.6033 support will confirm short term topping, after rejection by the mentioned resistance. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.5848 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9863; (P) 0.9877; (R1) 0.9893; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral first and rise from 0.9704 is expected to resume later. Break of 0.9995 will target a retest on 1.0067 high. However, break of 0.9837 will dampen this bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 0.9704 support instead.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 55 week EMA (now at 1.1002) and 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. That is, down trend from 1.2004 is not completed yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 resistance will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal. Rise from 0.9407 should then target 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.71; (P) 143.97; (R1) 144.34; More....

EUR/JPY recovered after dipping to 142.53 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, break of 145.66 will resume recent rebound from 137.37. Further rally should then be seen to retest 148.38 high. On the downside, break of 142.53 will target 138.83 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 139.78) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40. Decisive break there will raise the chance of trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 127.39.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.63; (P) 164.00; (R1) 164.43; More...

GBP/JPY recovers higher today but stays below 166.38 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 166.38, and sustained trading above 165.99 resistance will resume the whole rebound from 155.33 to 169.26 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 162.75 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias to the downside for 158.24 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 123.94 (2020 low) to 172.11 (2022 high) at 153.70 holds, medium term bullishness is retained. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Break of 172.11 high to resume such up trend is expected at a later stage.

Today's trading remains relatively subdued, as many markets are still closed for holidays. Canadian and US Dollars are showing mild strength, while Yen struggles as the weakest currency, followed by New Zealand Dollar and Euro. Sterling, Australian Dollar, and Swiss Franc exhibit mixed performance. Most pairs and crosses stay within Friday's range, except for Yen pairs, which have been influenced by new BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's dovish comments.

The week ahead is packed with events, including the BoC's rate decision, which may not prompt significant volatility. Meanwhile, Dollar anticipates key data releases such as CPI, PPI, retail sales, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, along with FOMC minutes. In other regions, UK GDP and Australian employment data releases are expected to carry more weight than others.

Dollar braces for CPI release, a look at EUR/USD and DXY

This week promises to be eventful for Dollar, with key data releases including CPI, PPI, retail sales, and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Additionally, Fed will publish minutes from March FOMC meeting, and numerous policymakers are expected to share their views on the economy and interest rates.

Specifically, headline CPI is forecasted to drop further from 6% to 5.2% in March. This marks a significant improvement from last year's 9.1% peak in July and represents the ninth consecutive month of cooling consumer inflation. If realized, the headline CPI reading would be the lowest since June 2021's 5.0%, nearly two years ago. Conversely, core CPI is projected to tick up from 5.5% to 5.6%, breaking the five-month downtrend since September last year.

Following last week's robust job data, traders have increased bets on a 25bps rate hike in May, with over a 60% chance. However, whether Fed opts for one, two, or no additional rate hikes may not make a significant difference. The primary focus is when Fed will start reversing course and cutting interest rates, which largely depends on how quickly core inflation falls back to a level consistent with price stability or remains stuck above the Fed's target.

Presently, fed fund futures indicate a nearly 70% chance of a cut back to 4.50-4.75% in July, far from the Fed's own projections. According to the March dot plot, only one policymaker envisions rates ending below 5% this year.

EUR/USD began losing upside momentum last week, stalling before 1.0320 resistance. It appears that a clear downside surprise in core CPI is needed to push EUR/USD past 1.0320 to resume the larger uptrend from the 2020 low at 0.9534. Conversely, breaking 1.0787 support will extend the consolidation pattern from 1.0320 with a third leg back towards 1.0515 support.

In parallel, for Dollar index, intense selling pressure is required to push DXY below 100.82 low to resume the downtrend from 114.77. Breaking above 103.44 resistance will extend the consolidation pattern from 100.82 with another upleg towards 105.88 resistance.

Gold falls below 2000 as expectations of anther Fed hike firm up

Gold dipped below 2000 as near-term pullback extended into Asian session, with many markets still on holiday. Shift appears to be driven by growing market conviction that Fed will implement another 25bps hike in May, as fed fund futures now indicate a 66% probability. This sentiment follows last week's robust US non-farm payroll report. However, expectations could still change after release of March CPI data and FOMC minutes on Wednesday.

Technically, a short-term top for Gold may have formed at 2032.05, evidenced by a bearish divergence in 4-hour MACD. Rally from 1084.48 might have completed a five-wave sequence and stalled just ahead of key resistance zone between 2070.06 and 2074.84 record high.

Considering this, a deeper pullback is now anticipated. Crucial near-term support level can be found at 38.2% retracement of 1804.48 to 2032.05 at 1945.11 which is in proximity to 1949.55 support level. As long as this support zone holds, current price action from 2032.05 should be regarded as a brief corrective phase, and a rally to new record highs is expected sooner rather than later.

However, sustained break of 1945.11/1949.55 support zone could signal a deeper fall in underway, possibly extending the long-term consolidation pattern from 2074.84 with another downward leg. In this scenario, gold prices could decline to 61.8% retracement of 1804.48 to 2032.05 at 1894.41 or even further towards 1084.48.

BoC expected to hold steady: Loonie's fate lies in oil prices and US data

Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely anticipated to maintain its pause this week, leaving interest rates unchanged at a 15-year high of 4.50%. Governor Macklem has emphasized that there's no need for additional rate hikes if the economy unfolds according to central bank's projections, which forecast stalling growth for the rest of the year, subsequently cooling inflation. Macklem also stated that an "accumulation of evidence" would be required before considering resuming tightening.

Consequently, it's unlikely that BoC's announcement on Wednesday or Macklem's speech on Thursday will trigger significant volatility in Canadian Dollar. Instead, Loonie is expected to be more reactive to developments in oil prices, as WTI crude remains stuck around 80 mark. Additionally, the currency could be influenced by US CPI data and the release of FOMC minutes when paired against the greenback.

From a technical perspective, USD/CAD appears to be in the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.3967. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.3563 minor resistance holds. However, robust support is anticipated around 1.3224, which should contain the downside and complete the pattern. On the other hand, a sustained break of 1.3563 and 55-day EMA (now at 1.3562) would likely result in a stronger rally back towards 1.3860 resistance level. Ultimately, the larger uptrend is envisaged to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage.

BoJ Ueda stands firm on monetary easing and negative rates

In his first press conference as new Bank of Japan Governor, Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank will maintain its massive stimulus program, echoing the stance of the previous leadership. Ueda commented, "The BOJ's current monetary easing is a very powerful one. We need to strive, as we have done so far, to appropriately grasp economic, price, and financial developments to see whether trend inflation will stably and sustainably achieve 2%."

The governor acknowledged the side-effects of the BOJ's negative rates, particularly on banks, but noted that banks seem to have sufficient buffers and financial intermediation is functioning. Ueda emphasized the necessity of maintaining negative rates, stating, "Given trend inflation has yet to hit 2%, it's appropriate to maintain negative rates."

Regarding Yield Curve Control (YCC), Ueda said, "When looking at current economic, price, and financial developments, it's appropriate to maintain YCC for now." He added that any major changes to YCC should be determined by evaluating the economic, price, and financial trends, while also weighing the benefits and costs of the policy.

Ueda noted some positive signs in inflation and wages, saying, "Trend inflation is rising somewhat. There's also some positive signs in wages. There's a good chance this will lead to stable, sustained achievement of higher, trend inflation."

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.63; (P) 164.00; (R1) 164.43; More...

GBP/JPY recovers higher today but stays below 166.38 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 166.38, and sustained trading above 165.99 resistance will resume the whole rebound from 155.33 to 169.26 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 162.75 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias to the downside for 158.24 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 123.94 (2020 low) to 172.11 (2022 high) at 153.70 holds, medium term bullishness is retained. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Break of 172.11 high to resume such up trend is expected at a later stage.

Economic Indicators Update