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GBPCAD traded slightly lower this week, after hitting resistance at 1.6870 on March 23. Overall, though, the pair is still trading above the uptrend line drawn from the low of September 28, as well as above all the plotted moving averages. Therefore, even if the retreat continues for a while longer, the bulls could still take the reins from near the uptrend line or the low of March 16 at 1.6525.

Both the short-term oscillators suggest that, indeed, the setback could extend a bit more. The RSI topped slightly below its 70 line and is now pointing down, while in the stochastic, the %K line is lying below the %D and is heading towards the 20 level.

If the bulls are willing to take charge from near the 1.6525 area, they may need to push the action above 1.6870 for the prevailing uptrend to resume. Such a rebound would confirm a higher high and may see scope for advances towards the 1.7370 area, marked by the high of February 21. If that zone doesn’t hold either, the next stop may be at 1.7600, which acted as a ceiling between April and September 2021.

The move that might turn the outlook to flat may be a dip below 1.6525, while the bears could claim full control if the pair drops below 1.6075. Should this happen, a lower low will be confirmed and the slide may stretch towards the 1.5810 hurdle, the break of which could carry larger bearish implications, perhaps setting the stage for declines towards the 1.5295 area, marked by the low of November 9.

Summing up, GBPCAD remains above the uptrend line drawn from the low of September 28, but a break above 1.6870 may be needed to signal the resumption of the prevailing uptrend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0811; (P) 1.0830; (R1) 1.0865; More...

EUR/USD is still bounded in range below 1.0929 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is in favor after receiving support from 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.1774). Break of 1.0929 will extend the rise from 1.0515 to retest 1.1032 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend from 0.9534 to 1.1273 fibonacci level next. However, break of 1.0711 will turn bias to the downside to extend the corrective pattern from 1.1032 with another decline.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) is in progress with 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0460 intact. The strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.0623) was also a medium term bullish sign. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. Sustained break there will solidity the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2298; (P) 1.2324; (R1) 1.2366; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside as rise from 1.1801 is in progress for 1.2445/6 resistance zone. Firm break there will resume larger rally from 1.0351, and target 1.2759 fibonacci level. For now, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.2177 support holds, even in case of another retreat.

In the bigger picture, price action from 1.2445 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom (2022 low). Resumption of the rally from 1.0351 is expected and break of 1.2446 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 (2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759. This will remain the favored case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.2445 at 1.1645 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9148; (P) 0.9185; (R1) 0.9234; More...

Outlook in USD/CHF is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral as range trading continues. Corrective pattern from 0.9058 low is extending. Another rise cannot be ruled out, but upside should be limited by 0.9474 fibonacci level. On the downside, firm break of 0.9058 will resume larger down trend from 1.1046.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) should still be in progress with 38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.9058 at 0.9474 intact. Prior rejection by 55 week EMA was a medium term bearish sign. Break of 0.9058 will resume such decline towards 0.8756 support (2021 low). But overall, this fall is still as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.34; (P) 130.97; (R1) 131.54; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. With 132.99 resistance intact, outlook remains bearish. On the downside, break of 129.62 will target a test on 127.20 low. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 151.93 to 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. However, firm break of 132.99 will argue that fall from 137.90 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for 137.90.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is still in progress. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.93; (P) 161.35; (R1) 161.97; More...

GBP/JPY's breach of 163.32 resistance argues that pull back from 165.99 has completed at 158.24. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 165.99. Break there will resume the whole rebound from 155.33 to 169.26 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 160.71 will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 123.94 (2020 low) to 172.11 (2022 high) at 153.70 holds, medium term bullishness is retained. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Break of 172.11 high to resume such up trend is expected at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.30; (P) 141.73; (R1) 142.40; More....

EUR/JPY's break of 143.61 resistance now argues that pull back form 15.55 has completed at 138.81 already. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 145.55 resistance first. Break there will resume the whole rebound from 137.37 and target a test on 148.38 high. On the downside, though, below 142.21 minor support will mix up the outlook again and turn intraday bias neutral.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 139.58) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40. Decisive break there will raise the chance of trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 127.39.

Euro is trading mildly higher today following indications from a key ECB official that more interest rate hikes are in the pipeline for the central bank. Concurrently, the improving market sentiment across Europe is lending support to both Sterling and the Swiss Franc. However, Canadian Dollar emerges as the strongest for the day, fueled by robust oil prices.

Conversely, Yen is facing widespread pressure as European benchmark treasury yields continue their rebound. Australian and New Zealand Dollars trail closely behind as the next weakest. Dollar's performance is mixed at the moment, but its recovery against Yen could potentially decelerate the greenback's decline elsewhere.

From a technical standpoint, EUR/JPY's break of the 143.61 resistance level suggests that the pullback from 145.55 has already concluded. Further gains are expected to retest 145.55, with a break there extending the rebound from 137.37. Attention is also focused on GBP/JPY, which is currently pressing 163.32. A break at that level would align the outlook with EUR/JPY and trigger a more substantial rise to 165.99. A firm break there would resume the overall rebound from 155.33.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.93%. DAX is up 0.90%. CAC is up 1.26%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.035 at 2.321. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 1.33%. Hong Kong HSI rose 2.06%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.16%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.22%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.077 to 0.307.

ECB Lane indicates more hikes needed to tame inflation

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, in an interview with German newspaper Die Zeit, emphasized the necessity for further interest rate hikes to ensure that inflation returns to the 2% target. Lane stated, "Under our baseline scenario, in order to make sure inflation comes down to 2%, more hikes will be needed."

He also suggested that even in cases of limited financial stress, interest rates would still need to rise. "If the financial stress we see is non-zero, but turns out to be still fairly limited, interest rates will still need to go up," he said.

Meanwhile, Lane expressed optimism about moderating price pressures at earlier stages of production, which are expected to eventually impact consumer prices. "If you look at the earlier stages of production, at the farm gate prices, at the prices of the food ingredients, you will recognize: all of these have turned around," he said.

The chief economist also dismissed the notion that a recession is required to bring inflation down, asserting that a soft landing for the economy is possible. Lane believes that the pandemic recovery can continue alongside decreasing inflation, as he noted, "We've lost so much growth momentum in the pandemic that it's possible for the pandemic recovery to continue and for inflation to come down simultaneously."

Germany Gfk consumer sentiment ticked up to -29.5, hindered by purchasing power concerns

Germany's GfK consumer sentiment index for April posted a modest improvement for the sixth consecutive month, rising from -30.6 to -29.5, although it fell short of the expected -29.0. In March, economic expectations for dipped from 6.0 to 3.7, while income expectations increased from -27.3 to -24.3. Propensity to buy also saw a slight uptick from -17.3 to -17.0.

GfK consumer expert Rolf Bürkl attributes the improved income expectations to the recent decline in energy prices, particularly for gas and heating oil. However, Bürkl cautions that inflation will remain elevated this year, albeit lower than the 6.9% recorded in 2022.

He explains, "The expected loss of purchasing power is preventing a sustained recovery in domestic demand. Accordingly, private consumption is unlikely to make a positive contribution to economic growth in Germany this year." This outlook is reinforced by the persistently low level of consumer sentiment.

Australia CPI slowed to 6.8% yoy, supports RBA pause next week

Australia's monthly CPI in February eased from 7.4% yoy to 6.8% yoy, below expectation of 7.2% yoy. CPI excluding volatile items such as fruit, vegetables, and automotive fuel also slowed from 7.5% yoy to 6.9% yoy.

Michelle Marquardt, Head of Prices Statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), noted that "this marks the second consecutive month of lower annual inflation, also known as 'disinflation', from the peak of 8.4% in December 2022."

Although inflation remains well above RBA's target band of 2-3%, the start of disinflation process could increase the likelihood of a pause in the RBA's tightening cycle during their next meeting. The continued easing of inflationary pressures may prompt the central bank to take a more cautious approach in the near term.

Incoming BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida Stresses Importance of Trend Inflation in Monetary Policy

Incoming BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida emphasized the significance of trend inflation in a parliamentary session today, stating that the central bank will conduct a comprehensive assessment of various data, including trend inflation developments, to guide monetary policy.

Uchida said that "trend inflation is an extremely important factor for us in judging on achievement of 2% inflation target in a stable manner." He also mentioned that the BoJ will "make comprehensive judgment by looking at various price indicators."

In addition, Uchida highlighted the importance of communication between the central bank and the markets, saying, "We will strive to communicate firmly with markets to gain understanding" regarding the BoJ's policy approach. This statement underscores the commitment of the BoJ to transparency and open dialogue in shaping its monetary policy.

EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.30; (P) 141.73; (R1) 142.40; More....

EUR/JPY's break of 143.61 resistance now argues that pull back form 15.55 has completed at 138.81 already. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 145.55 resistance first. Break there will resume the whole rebound from 137.37 and target a test on 148.38 high. On the downside, though, below 142.21 minor support will mix up the outlook again and turn intraday bias neutral.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 139.58) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40. Decisive break there will raise the chance of trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 127.39.

Economic Indicators Update

The Euro extends steep recovery into third straight day, lifted by renewed risk appetite on easing fears of deeper crisis in banking sector.

Strong bullish acceleration has so far retraced over 61.8% of last week’s sharp two-day pullback (1.0930/1.0713), contributing to signs of a healthy correction (contained by rising 10DMA) preceding fresh advance.

The daily chart structure remains firmly bullish (north-heading moving averages track the rise of price and form a multiple bull-crosses; positive momentum is strong) that keeps near-term focus shifted to the upside.

Also, no significant impact was seen from today’s daily cloud twist, which is usually magnetic, keeping fresh bulls so far unharmed.

Broken 50% retracement level (1.0821) is reinforced by 5DMA and marks solid support which should ideally keep the downside protected and maintain bullish bias for further gains.

Fibo level at 1.0878 (76.4% retracement of 1.0930/1.0713) marks immediate target, ahead of key near-term barriers at 1.0930 (Mar 23 peak) and 1.1000 (psychological).

Res: 1.0862; 1.0878; 1.0912; 1.0930.
Sup: 1.0821; 1.0796; 1.0757; 1.0737.

Hey guys! So, April is fast approaching, and there's already an array of over 30 high-impact news releases; that is, almost every single trading day! As a result, in order to be better positioned to 'milk' all of these volatile events in the market, here are a few trade ideas to consider.

Disclaimer: Now, I know we've had quite an amazing run these past few month, with over 78% accuracy in our trade ideas and sentiments, and thousands of pips in profits monthly, you must know I am not a 100% accurate AI. So, do not bet all your money on these ideas without proper risk management!

XAUUSD

Here is our dear friend Gold, from the weekly timeframe. We can clearly see price confined within a rising wedge, and approaching a major area of resistance (a pivot zone). There is also a supply zone at the peak of the inducement candle (that previous rejection candle with the long wick). Based on the confluence of the two resistance trendlines, the supply zone, the pivot zone, and the 88% Fibonacci retracement level, I am quite confident of this playing out.

Analysts’ Expectations:

• Direction: Bearish
• Target: $1842
• Invalidation: $2074

NZDCAD

NZDCAD is currently trading within a rising channel that is inside a bigger descending channel, and has recently been rejected from the resistance trendline of the channel. I expect price to head into the supply zone once more for a confirmed bearish push. Once price breaks through the support trendline, it would sail very quickly towards the 200-Day MA.

Analysts’ Expectations:

• Direction: Bearish
• Target: 0.83000
• Invalidation: 0.85800

EURNZD

EURNZD is at a cruciall point on the Daily timeframe. First of all, we have the resistance trendline from the previous high, then followed by the resistance trendline from the rising wedge. Don't forget, we also have the resistance zone and a rally-base-drop supply zone at the site of the price action. All these combined to give me a clear bearish sentiment.

Analysts’ Expectations:

• Direction: Bearish
• Target: 1.75700
• Invalidation: 1.69450

GBPCHF

There'a hardly any need for a lengthy explanation of this GPBCHF chart. The major factors to consider here are; the resistance trendline, the rally-base-drop supply zone, the 200-Day MA, and the general overview of the market structure.

Analysts’ Expectations:

• Direction: Bearish
• Target: 1.11100
• Invalidation: 1.15700

AUDUSD

AUDUSD is another interesting idea I found. You see how the resistance trendline aligns with the rally-base-drop supply zone and the 200-Day MA? I see it too! And based on the general overview of the price action market structure, bearish seems the rational way to go.

Analysts’ Expectations:

• Direction: Bearish
• Target: 0.64330
• Invalidation: 0.67860

CONCLUSION

The trading of CFDs comes at a risk. Thus, to succeed, you have to manage risks properly. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.