Sample Category Title

USD/CAD surged to 1.3644 last week but quickly retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.3644 resistance will affirm the case that correction from 1.3976 has completed at 1.3224. However, break of 1.3315 will resume the fall from 1.3976 through 1.3222 cluster support, which carries larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3222 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3223) holds, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 high at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.3222/3 will indicate that the trend might have reversed. Deeper fall would be seen to next cluster support at 1.2726 (61.8% retracement at 1.2758).

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048.

GBP/JPY gyrated lower last week but stays above 163.02. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for 163.02. Decisive break there will resume the whole fall from 172.11, and target 100% projection of 172.11 to 163.02 from 168.99 at 159.90. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 167.40 minor resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term upside momentum has been diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 week EMA (now at 160.66) will argue that it's already correcting whole up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Nevertheless, before that, such up trend could still extend through 172.11 high.

In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 151.94) holds, rise from 122.75 could still extend higher at a later stage. Next target is 195.86 (2015 high).

EUR/JPY's decline from 148.38 resumed last week and hit as low as 140.75. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 148.38 to 142.54 from 146.12 at 140.28. Firm break there could prompt downside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 136.67 next. On the upside, above 143.12 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further decline will remain in favor as long as 146.12 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, 148.38 could be a medium term top already. Fall from there is probably correcting whole up trend from 114.42 (2020 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 55 week EMA (now at 137.37), or further to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40 before completion.

In the long term picture, outlook will stay bullish as long as 134.11 resistance turned support holds (2021 high). Sustained break of 149.76 (2014 high) will open up further rally, as resumption of the rise from 94.11 (2012 low), towards 169.96 (2008 high).

EUR/GBP's break of 0.8570 support confirmed resumption of whole decline from 0.9267. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 61.8% projection of 0.9267 to 0.8647 from 0.8827 at 0.8444 next. On the upside, above 0.8674 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further decline will remain in favor as long as 0.8827 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 0.9267 is a down leg inside long term range pattern. Deeper fall could be seen towards 0.8201/8338 support zone. But strong support should be seen there to bring reversal. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8827 resistance will turn favor to the case that such decline is merely a correction in the up trend from 0.8201. That is, further rally would be seen at a later stage through 0.9267.

In the long term picture, long term range pattern is extending. But rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is expected to extend at a later stage, to 0.9799 (2009 high).

EUR/AUD stayed in consolidation from 1.5704 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5327) to bring rebound. On the upside, decisive break of 1.5704 will resume larger rise from 1.4281. However, sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper correction towards 1.4965 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

In the longer term picture, breach of 55 month EMA (now at 1.5592) raises the chance of medium term bullish reversal. Focus is back on 1.6434 cluster resistance, 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 (2020 high) to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.7691.

Sideway consolidation continued in EUR/CHF last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 0.9953 resistance will resume larger rally from 0.9407 to 1.0072 fibonacci level. However, break of 0.9720 will extend the decline from 0.9953 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8407 to 0.9953 at 0.9616.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 0.9970 support turned resistance retains medium term bearishness. That is, while 0.9407 is a medium term bottom, price actions from there would develope into a corrective pattern rather than a reversal. Down trend resumption through 0.9407 is mildly favored at a later stage. This will remain the favored case now, as long 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 holds.

In the long term picture, capped well below 55 month EMA, EUR/CHF is seen as extending the multi-decade down trend. There is no prospect of a bullish reversal until firm break of 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low). In case of resumption, next target is 138.2% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9033.

The tone of the markets was well set by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's indication of smaller rate hike in the upcoming FOMC meeting. The biggest reactions were found in treasury yields, which decline was surprisingly steep. US stocks ended higher but upside momentum appeared to be diminishing.

Dollar was sold off broadly and closed as the second worst performer, next to Canadian. Australian Dollar was actually the third weakest, arguing that risk-on sentiment wasn't that solid. Yen was the strongest, as supported by falling yields, followed by Kiwi and then Sterling. Euro and Swiss Franc ended mixed.

Investors cheered Powell, but turning cautious

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Brookings Institution was the biggest market mover last week, and pretty much set the tone. In short, Powell said that, "it makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down", adding that, the time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting." Stocks rose while treasury yield and Dollar tumbled as reactions to the speech. Solid non-farm payroll growth with stronger wage increases provided some jitters, but didn't alter the path.

The decline in treasury yields at the long end was rather decisive and significant. But momentum in stocks and Dollar was not. As pointed out by many Fed officials, at this stage of the tightening cycle, it's not the size of a move that matters. Rather, the terminal rate and the timing to get there carry much more significance. Thus, traders might start to turn cautious and wait for new economic projections at the FOMC meeting on December 15 to get some hints on the answers to the two questions, before taking another committed move.

DOW's close above 34281.36 resistance was a bullish development. But upside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in daily MACD. There is still prospect of a pull back in the near term, and bring of 33583.77 support will indicate the start of a correction. But as long as 33583.77 holds, DOW could still edge higher before making a near term top.

S&P 500's rebound from 3491.58 is much less convincing that DOW's corresponding move. SPX is still kept well below 4325.28 resistance. Indeed, break of 3906.54 support should have 55 day EMA taken out too, and would open up the case for retesting 3491.58 low.

10-year yield to defend key support level

US 10-year yield's steep decline was a surprise. The move away from 55 day EMA is starting the argue that it's already in a medium term correction. Still, rebound from current level will have 3.483 resistance turned support defended. Break of 3.798 resistance will bring stronger rise back towards 4.333 high, and keep the correction short term.

However, sustained break of 3.483 will extend the fall from 4.333 to 55 week EMA (now at 2.897), or even further to 38.2% retracement of 0.398 to 4.333 at 2.829. Such development would be an heavy drag on all Yen pairs, in particular USD/JPY.

Dollar index sitting on important support zone

Dollar index's close below 38.2% retracement of 89.20 to 114.77 at 105.00 is a bearish sign. Yet, it's still sitting close to an important support zone between 104.63 and 55 week EMA (now at 104.00). There is still prospect of forming a bottoming at current level. Break of 107.19 resistance should at least bring rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 108.62).

However, sustained trading below the 55 day EMA will open up deeper correction to 61.8% retracement at 98.96, which is below 100 handle. If that happens, we might at extended rally in stocks and correction in yields at the same time.

Yen surged broadly, boosted by falling yields

Yen was the biggest winner for the week as lifted by the steep decline in US and European benchmark yields. There was also some support from new board member Naoki Tamura's push for policy framework review, which could eventually lead to an end of the ultra-loose monetary policy (well, perhaps next year).

After some hesitation, AUD/JPY's near term decline finally took off and further fall should be seen to retest 90.81 support soon. Firm break there will resume the decline fall from 99.32, as a correction to larger up trend. Next target will be 100% projection of 99.32 to 90.81 from 95.73 at 87.22.

Also, if that happens, 55 week EMA would likely be taken out decisively, which would indicate that AUD/JPY is already correcting the rise form 59.85 (2020 low). That would open up further decline to 38.2% retracement of 59.85 to 99.32 at 84.24.

CAD/JPY's development was even more bearish, with a close below 55 week EMA (now at 100.45). It's likely already in correction to whole up trend from 73.80 (2020 low). Deeper decline is expected as long as 103.45 resistance holds. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 73.80 to 110.87 at 96.70.

Loonie selloff accelerates as BoC tightening close to a pause

Taking about Canadian Dollar, it ended as the worst performer last week on talks that BoC could pause earlier than Fed which leave its terminal rate lower. Opinions are divided on whether BoC would raise interest rate by 25bps or 50bps this week. Yet, there is consensus that this hike, or another one in January, would be the end of the cycle.

EUR/CAD's rally accelerated to as high as 1.4196 last week and there is not sign of topping yet. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3943 support holds. Next target is 161.8% projection of 1.2867 to 1.3694 from 1.3270 at 1.4608.

Also, note that sustained break of 1.4263 support turned resistance should confirm the completion of whole down trend from 1.6151 (2018 high), with three waves down to 1.2867 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.6151 to 1.2867 at 1.4897 and above in the medium term.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY's fall from 151.93 resumed last week and hit as low as 133.61. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 133.07 medium term fibonacci level or further to 55 week EMA. On the upside, break of 137.66 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. However, near term risk will stay on the downside as long as 142.24 resistance holds, even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It's too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.33). Some support should be seen around this zone to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

In the long term picture, rise from 102.58, as part of the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) was put to a halt at 151.93, just ahead of 100% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 102.58 at 152.87. There is no clear sign of long term reversal yet. Such up trend is expected to resume at a later stage, as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds.

Monday, Dec 5, 2022

Tuesday, Dec 6, 2022

Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022

Thursday, Dec 8, 2022

Friday, Dec 9, 2022

U.S. Highlights

• Employment rose by 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) for the fourth consecutive month in November, surpassing expectations for a moderate slowdown in job growth.
• Core PCE inflation for October eased slightly to 5% year-on-year (y/y), but was supported by strong spending growth and a drop in the consumer savings rate to a 17-year low.
• FOMC Chair Powell noted in his speech on Wednesday that rate hikes may slow as early as December but reiterated that the Fed has a long way to go in restoring price stability.

Canadian Highlights

• Higher-than-expected third quarter GDP growth masked softening domestic demand.
• However, the labour market remains tight, with another 10k new jobs added in November.
• Looking ahead to next week’s Bank of Canada announcement, we expect another 50-basis point hike, to 4.25%. But, with indications of slowing demand and cooling inflation, we expect the BoC is nearing the end of its hiking cycle.

U.S. - The Job Market Marches On

Markets had to hit the ground running after the Thanksgiving holiday, with a full slate of economic data and news. The November jobs report, personal income and spending data for October, and FOMC Chair Powell’s speech on Wednesday were just the headliners. Markets rallied to start the week, but gains were pared back after the release of the November jobs report on Friday. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 is up 0.3% on the week while the ten-year yield is down 10bps to 3.59%.

In November, the seemingly indomitable U.S. labor market recorded another strong rise in employment. Non-farm payrolls rose by 263k jobs, rising at a pace of 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) for the fourth consecutive month (Chart 1). The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%, while the labor force declined slightly (-0.1% m/m). Average hourly earnings accelerated by 0.6% m/m, doubling market expectations.

Oil prices rose this week after Chinese officials eased up on their Zero-Covid messaging in the wake of wide-spread protests. With health protocols expected to be loosened heading into 2023, the prospect of renewed Chinese demand drove oil prices higher. Looking to next week, OPEC+ will have its bi-monthly meeting on Sunday after previously cutting production by 2 million barrels per day in October. The following day, the EU will implement its embargo on Russian oil. European officials also recently announced a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil, which they intend to implement in coordination with the G7 and Australia on the same day their embargo goes into effect. Overall, bullish sentiments linger in the oil market as we head into the final month of the year.

Personal income saw a healthy gain in October (+0.7% m/m), driven by strong growth in employee compensation (0.5% m/m) alongside one-time refundable tax credits issued by states. Consumers were keen to spend those gains, with spending rising even more (+0.8% m/m). That took the consumer savings rate to a 17-year low of 2.3%. It wasn’t all inflation either. Controlling for taxes and inflation, income rose 0.4% m/m. Real spending was up a healthy 0.5% m/m, which puts third quarter consumer spending on track for a healthy gain. Headline PCE inflation fell 0.2 percentage-points (ppts) to 6% y/y (Chart 2) while the Fed’s preferred core PCE measure fell 0.1ppts to 5% y/y.

Earlier in the week we heard from Chair Powell for the first time since the November FOMC meeting. His remarks were little changed overall, but markets reacted strongly to his statement that “the time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting”. This reaction, however, overlooked his reiteration that the FOMC has “a long way to go in restoring price stability” and that this will likely require “holding policy at a restrictive level for some time”. Coupled with his insistence that the FOMC will need to see “substantially more evidence to give comfort that inflation is actually declining” alongside the strong November jobs report, it is fair to say that their job is far from done.

Canada – The Economy Holds on as Rate Hikes Start to Bite

This week saw Canada's third quarter GDP clock in higher than expected, rising 2.9% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) at an annualized rate. The print was nearly double consensus expectations, powered by an 8% pickup in exports and inventory building. Certainly a pleasant surprise, but some of the details in the report and October's flash print are cause for concern.

Just below the headline numbers the impact of rising interest rates on household spending and residential real estate investment is glaring. Consumer expenditures fell 1% in the quarter, as households pulled back on buying big ticket items like furniture and cars. An uptick in services spending managed to offset some of the losses. As rates pushed higher, residential investment also contracted – dropping 15.4% q/q (annualized). These trends are set to continue as the Bank of Canada (BoC) continues its rate hikes.

The BoC has hiked its policy rate 350 basis points since February – with more than half of that happening since June this year (Chart 1). We also know the BoC will continue its rate hiking cycle as it tries to stamp out inflation. What's important to remember is that it usually takes time for the economy to respond to higher rates, so it's likely that most of the hikes will only start to be felt in 2023. That said, given the rapidly tightening monetary conditions and the highly leveraged state of Canadian households' balance sheets, October's GDP flash estimate that showed no growth is not much of a surprise.

So far, the labour market remains tight. November saw another 10k net new jobs added. The numbers were heavily skewed to full-time work with just over 50k new positions, while 41k part-time positions were shed. Despite the fact that job creation slowed from over 100k last month, the drop in the labour force participation rate meant that there were fewer people looking for work. This helped bring the unemployment rate down to 5.1% from 5.2% the month prior. The relative scarcity of workers continues to be reflected in the strong wage growth as average hourly earnings for permanent workers ticked up 5.4% y/y – albeit a slightly slower pace than the 5.5% registered the month prior.

However, wage growth appears to be slowing rapidly. The three-month annualized growth rate has now dipped to 3.5%, falling well below the annual rate and continuing a trend that started in September (Chart 2). Although downward pressure on real incomes will hurt households, the BoC will be reassured that a wage-price spiral has yet to materialize.

Looking ahead, the BoC will continue with its rate hikes next week. Although CPI inflation is slowing, it is still well above the target range. The labour market remains historically tight as labour force participation rate has fallen relative to last year. With indications of slowing demand and inflation emerging, we expect the BoC to end its rate hiking cycle early next year. However, the lag between rate hikes and their impact on economic activity means the full force of higher interest rates will only be felt next year.

EU

There are a number of economic releases on the calendar next week but it’s almost entirely made up of tier two and three data. That includes final PMIs, revised GDP and retail sales.

The most notable events for the EU over the next week are speeches by ECB policymakers ahead of the last meeting of the year a week later – including President Lagarde on Monday and Thursday – and the final negotiations on the Russian oil price cap as part of a package of sanctions due to come into force on Monday.

UK 

Compared with the soap opera of the last few months, next week is looking pretty bland from a UK perspective. A couple of tier two and three releases are notable including the final services PMI, BRC retail sales monitor and consumer inflation expectations. I’m not convinced any will be particularly impactful, barring a truly shocking number.

Russia

The most notable economic release next week is the CPI on Friday which is seen moderating further to 12% from 12.6% in October, potentially allowing for further easing from the CBR a week later.

South Africa

Politics appears to be dominating the South African markets at the moment as efforts to impeach President Cyril Ramaphosa go into the weekend. The rand has seemingly been very sensitive to developments this week, with the prospect of a resignation appearing to trigger sharp sell-off’s in the currency and the country’s bonds. Under the circumstances, that could bring weekend risk for South African assets depending on how events progress over the coming days.

On the data front, next week brings GDP on Tuesday and manufacturing production on Thursday.

Turkey

Ordinarily, especially these days, inflation releases are widely followed but that is less the case for a country and central bank that has such little interest in it. Official inflation is expected to ease slightly, but only to 84.65% from 85.51% in October, hardly something to celebrate. The central bank has indicated that its easing cycle will now pause at 9% so perhaps another reason to disregard the inflation data.

Switzerland

A quieter week after one of repeated disappointment on the economic data front. Whether that will be enough to push the SNB into a slower pace of tightening isn’t clear, although it has repeatedly stressed the threat of inflation and need to control it. The meeting on 15 December remains this months highlight while next week has only unemployment on Wednesday to offer.

China

The PBOC announced on 25 November its decision to cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 25 basis points, lowering the weighted average ratio for financial institutions to 7.8% and releasing about 500 billion yuan in long-term liquidity to prop up the faltering economy.

In response to the various property crises that have emerged in the real estate sector over the past year or so, i.e. debt defaults by real estate companies, mortgage suspensions leading to unfinished buildings, and real estate-related non-performing loan crises, the Chinese government has issued a new 16-point plan.

Focus next week will be on the Caixin services PMI, trade data, CPI release and the protests. China’s strict zero-Covid measures are hammering growth and the public is clearly becoming increasingly frustrated. It will be a fine balance between managing protests and easing Covid-zero measures to support growth in a country not used to the former.

India

The RBI could potentially bring its tightening cycle to a close next Wednesday with a final 35 basis point hike, taking the repo rate to 6.25%. While the outlook remains cloudy given the global economic outlook, there is some reason to be optimistic. The tightening cycle may soon be at an end, the economy exited recession in the last quarter and Indian stock hit a record high this week, something of an outlier compared with its global peers.

Australia & New Zealand

Recent figures show that inflation (YoY) in Australia rose to 7.3% in the third quarter, compared to the target range of 2%-3%. The RBA began to weaken their hawkish stance in the past two months, raising rates by just 25 basis points each time to bring the official rate to 2.85%. The market is currently expecting a 25 basis point rate hike next week as well. Also worth noting is Australia’s third quarter GDP trade balance figures.

New Zealand inflation (YoY) surged 7.2% in the third quarter, compared to the RBNZ’s inflation target range of 1%-3%. Previously, the RBNZ had been raising rates by 50 basis points but that changed last month as they ramped it up with a 75 basis point hike. The current official rate is now 4.25%.

Japan

The Japan Tokyo CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year in November, up from 3.5% in October and the 3.6% expected. Ex-fresh food and energy it increased by 2.5%, up from 2.2% and above the 2.3% expected. Japan’s manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 in November, the worst in two years, with both new export orders and overall new orders declining and falling below 50 for the fifth consecutive month, which alines with the unexpected 0.3% fall in Japanese GDP in the third quarter. Japan department store sales rose 11.4% year-on-year in October, down from 20.2% in September.

The poor PMI and retail sales data may have reinforced the BOJ’s view that domestic demand is weak and CPI inflation is largely input and cost driven and, therefore, unsustainable. The central bank will likely continue to pursue an accommodative monetary policy, especially in light of the current poor global economic outlook.

Final GDP for the third quarter is in focus next week, with the quarterly figure expected to be negative meaning the economy may be in recession. Lots of other releases throughout the week but the majority, if not all, are tier two and three.

Singapore

Singapore’s CPI for October was 6.7% (YoY), below expectations of 7.1% and the 7.50% reading. GDP for the third quarter (YoY) was 4.1%, below expectations of 4.2% and 4.40% previously. On the quarter, it was 1.1% down from 1.50%. Next week the only release of note is retail sales on Monday.

Economic Calendar

Saturday, Dec. 3

Economic Events

• ECB President Lagarde chairs a roundtable on “The Global Dimensions of Policy Normalization” at a Bank of Thailand conference

Sunday, Dec. 4

Economic Data/Events

• Thailand consumer confidence
• OPEC+ output virtual meeting
• ECB’s Nagel and Villeroy appear on German television

Monday, Dec. 5

Economic Data/Events

• US factory orders, durable goods orders, ISM services index
• Eurozone Services PMI
• Singapore Services PMI
• Australia Services PMI, inflation gauge, job advertisements, inventories
• China Caixin services PMI
• India services PMI
• Eurozone retail sales
• Japan PMI
• New Zealand commodity prices
• Singapore retail sales
• Taiwan foreign reserves
• Turkey CPI
• European Union sanctions on Russian oil are expected to begin
• ECB President Lagarde gives a keynote speech on “Transition Towards a Greener Economy: Challenges and Solutions”
• ECB’s Villeroy speaks at a conference of French banking and finance supervisor ACPR in Paris
• ECB’s Makhlouf speaks in Dublin
• EU finance ministers meet in Brussels
• The US Business Roundtable publishes its CEO Economic Outlook survey

Tuesday, Dec. 6

Economic Data/Events

• US Trade
• Thailand CPI
• RBA rate decision: Expected to raise Cash Rate Target by 25bps to 3.10%
• Australia BoP, net exports of GDP
• Germany factory orders, Services PMI
• Japan household spending
• Mexico international reserves
• South Africa GDP
• Georgia’s US Senate runoff
• The first-ever EU-Western Balkans summit is held in Albania
• Goldman Sachs Financial Services conference

Wednesday, Dec. 7

Economic Data/Events

• US Trade MBA mortgage applications
• China reserves, Trade
• Australia GDP, reserves
• Eurozone GDP
• Canada central bank (BOC) rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bps to 4.00%
• India central bank (RBI) rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bps to 6.15%
• Poland central bank rate decision:  Expected to keep rates steady at 6.75%
• Singapore reserves
• Germany industrial production
• Japan leading index
• BOJ’s Toyoaki Nakamura speaks in Nagano
• EIA crude oil inventory report
• Foreign policy forum is held in Moscow with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov speaks at a foreign policy forum in Moscow.

Thursday, Dec. 8

Economic Data/Events

• US initial jobless claims
• Australia trade
• Indonesia consumer confidence
• Japan GDP, BoP
• Mexico CPI
• New Zealand heavy traffic index
• South Africa current account, manufacturing production
• ECB President Lagarde speaks at the European Systemic Risk Board’s sixth annual conference
• SNB’s Maechler participates in a panel discussion
• ECB’s Villeroy speaks at the Toulouse School of Economics
• European Defence Agency holds its annual conference in Brussels

Friday, Dec. 9

Economic Data/Events

• US PPI, wholesale inventories, University of Michigan consumer sentiment
• China CPI
• Russia CPI
• China PPI, aggregate financing, money supply, new yuan loans
• Japan M2
• New Zealand card spending, manufacturing activity
• Spain industrial production
• Thailand foreign reserves, forward contracts
• Portuguese PM Costa, Spain PM Sanchez, and French President Macron attend a meeting in Spain

Sovereign Rating Updates

• United Kingdom (Fitch)
• EFSF (Moody’s)
• ESM (Moody’s)
• Netherlands (Moody’s)
• Saudi Arabia (Moody’s)