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Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has risen to $2.22T, returning to the levels seen at its two-week highs. Since the start of August, the balance of power has shifted in favour of buyers, but the pace of this recovery is significantly slower than that of the similar rally seen in early July. This suggests a slight waning of buyer interest following the rebound from the June and July lows, given that the market currently lacks fundamental drivers of growth. Among the most active coins over the past 7 days, the top performers were Theta (+14.3%), as well as SushiSwap and Cosmos (both +8.5%), while the worst performers were Stellar and NEAR (both down -2.9%), as well as XRP (-2.7%), which further points to a predominance of growth.

The sentiment index stands at 30 at the start of the day on Monday. Since mid-July, this indicator has been in the ‘fear’ zone, only occasionally touching the 25 level (‘extreme fear’). This is a gradual shift in sentiment that is worth monitoring from time to time. Still, cautious medium-term investors will likely prefer to stay on the sidelines until this indicator consolidates above 50.

Bitcoin has been cautiously testing the $65K level for the fourth consecutive day. Although there has been no significant surge in buying activity as it approaches this round figure, the absence of sell-offs also suggests a build-up of short positions well above this level. It is quite possible that the next target for growth now appears to be the $70K region – an even more significant round figure, near which the 200-day moving average also lies. This would be above the key area of market contention seen in March and April, significantly shifting sentiment in favour of buyers.

News Background

The negative sentiment in the crypto market is temporary, and investors’ fears regarding a further fall in Bitcoin are greatly exaggerated. The situation is already showing signs of bottoming out, according to Japan’s Metaplanet, which holds 43,000 BTC in its reserves.

MARA Holdings, the largest US mining company, ended the second quarter with a net loss of $611.3 million, compared with a profit of $808.2 million for the same period last year. The decline in BTC’s price was cited as the main reason for the negative result.

According to CryptoRank, trading volume in perpetual futures on centralised crypto exchanges (CEXs) in July was at its lowest since December 2023. On DEXs, trading volume in perpetual futures fell to its lowest level since June 2025.

Trump’s media company, Trump Media (TMTG), has wound down its cryptocurrency operations, abandoning plans to create a public treasury for the CRO token and to integrate prediction markets into Truth Social. However, TMTG will retain its crypto assets. According to Bitcoin Treasuries, Trump Media holds 9,542 BTC worth over $600 million.

The FxPro Analyst Team

• The USD index plummeted amid a decline in US employment.
• Gold is benefiting from the Fed’s reluctance to raise interest rates.

The US dollar touched a seven-week low after an unexpected labour market report. Employment in July unexpectedly fell by 23K. The figures for May were revised down from 129K to 63K, and those for June from 57K to 20K. As a result, the US economy has added an average of 44K jobs per month over the last six months. The last time we saw similarly weak figures, the Fed cut rates.

The futures market has reduced the probability of a monetary policy tightening in September to 46% from 67% a week ago. The probability of two hikes in 2026 has fallen from 46% to 32%. This has led to a weakening of the US dollar against majors.

This is all the more so because the White House has resumed pressuring the Fed. The US administration is taking further steps to remove Lisa Cook from her post as FOMC Governor. Coupled with reports of conversations between Donald Trump and Kevin Warsh, this casts a shadow over the central bank’s independence and is one of the reasons for the sell-off in the US dollar.

The Middle East is proving to be a lifeline for the greenback. Iran has announced its readiness to strike a deal with Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, provided some conditions are met. These include lifting sanctions, withdrawing US troops from the region, and reparations. It is doubtful that Washington would agree to this, which heightens the risks of conflict escalation and bolsters the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Bears on the USDJPY pair attempted to capitalise on its weakness following the employment figures. The pair slipped below the ¥157 level, and speculators immediately took advantage. The wide interest-rate differential between the Fed and the Bank of Japan creates ideal conditions for carry trades and for selling the yen as a funding currency. The dollar quickly rebounded above ¥158 and is set to continue its rally.

The disappointing employment data came as a catalyst for the gold rally. The precious metal managed to storm the $4,300 mark and consolidate above it. The reduced likelihood of monetary tightening, the associated weakening of the dollar, and a fall in US Treasury yields are providing a strong tailwind for gold. This is all the more so given that when US inflation is high, and the Fed has no intention of tightening monetary policy, gold tends to rise.

The FxPro Analyst Team

GBP/USD enters the week of 10–14 August near 1.3500 – its highest level since 15 July. Sterling is building on the momentum from a sharp decline in the dollar following a weak US labour market report, which reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Further support has come from the drop in oil prices: cheaper energy is easing inflation risks and reducing pressure on the UK economy.

Geopolitics remains a key factor. Donald Trump announced progress in negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz, although no final agreement has yet been reached. A further decline in oil prices would reinforce expectations that the Bank of England can maintain a gradual approach to monetary policy. At its last meeting, the regulator left rates unchanged, and Andrew Bailey confirmed that the disinflation process continues.

The main event for sterling this week will be Thursday’s preliminary GDP estimate for the second quarter. The economy is expected to grow by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, down from 0.6% previously, with the annual rate projected at 1.6% versus 0.9%. June GDP is forecast to rise by 0.1%. Stronger-than-expected data would support GBP/USD, while a marked slowdown could put renewed pressure on the pound.

On the US side, the key release will be July inflation data on Wednesday, with core CPI expected at 2.5% year-on-year and headline CPI at 3.4%. Thursday brings PPI, followed by retail sales and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index on Friday. Weak inflation and consumer figures could weigh heavily on the dollar and support further GBP/USD gains, while sustained price pressures would strengthen the case for Fed tightening.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, a wide consolidation range is forming around the 1.3470 level. An upside breakout would open the way for a move towards 1.3522 and then 1.3535. A downside breakout would suggest a move towards 1.3436, and a break below this level would open the way for the trend to extend to 1.3190. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3470 level, currently extending between 1.3434 and 1.3500. A move lower towards 1.3470 is expected, followed by a move higher to 1.3535. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downwards. In the short term, a decline towards 20 is expected, followed by a rise towards 80.

Conclusion

GBP/USD has started the week on a strong footing, trading near its highest level since mid-July. The pound has benefited from a weaker dollar following soft US labour market data and falling oil prices, which have eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations of aggressive Fed tightening. Geopolitical progress regarding the Strait of Hormuz has also supported risk sentiment. Markets will now focus on UK GDP data on Thursday and US inflation figures on Wednesday, both of which will provide important clues about the policy outlook for the BoE and Fed. Technically, the pair appears poised for further upside towards 1.3535, with near-term direction hinging on this week’s key data releases. A break below 1.3436 would shift the outlook to bearish, exposing the 1.3190 level.

TL;DR: A weak jobs report already made the case for a Fed hold, but only Wednesday's CPI can confirm inflation is cooling too — and if it comes in soft without reviving growth fears, Silver's dual identity as both a monetary and industrial metal could let it outrun Gold.

Why Payrolls Only Told Half the Story

Last week's payroll shock was enough to send Gold and Silver sharply higher, but it wasn't enough to make the rest of markets comfortable. That difference is important. Weak employment made another Fed hike much harder to defend, yet it did nothing to prove the inflation problem has disappeared. Markets are therefore left with only half of the dovish case confirmed: the labor market is weakening, but the Fed still needs evidence that price pressures are cooling. Wednesday's US CPI report could provide that missing half — and if it does, Silver may have more to gain than Gold.

Why Silver Has a Second Route Higher That Gold Doesn't

Both metals would benefit from the same first-order reaction to softer inflation. Reduced Fed tightening risk should weigh on Treasury yields and the Dollar, improving the monetary backdrop for precious metals. Silver, however, has another route higher. If softer CPI allows investors to price a Fed hold without simultaneously increasing recession fears, equities and broader risk sentiment should also strengthen. That matters because Silver sits between a monetary metal and an industrial commodity — Gold benefits when yields and the Dollar fall, while Silver can benefit from those same forces and from a stronger cyclical outlook.

That second channel was largely missing after payrolls. Negative NFP and heavy downward revisions were dovish for Fed expectations, but they were also bad news for growth. Gold could respond directly to falling tightening risk, while broader risk markets had to decide whether weaker labor demand was becoming something more serious.

A benign CPI surprise would be different. If inflation slows while growth fears don't intensify, markets move closer to a disinflationary soft-landing interpretation. Under that scenario, Silver's industrial exposure becomes an advantage rather than a complication, giving it scope to outrun Gold even if both continue higher.

What the Gold/Silver Ratio Is Already Signaling

The Gold/Silver ratio suggests that shift may already be starting. On the 4-hour chart, the ratio can be read as having completed a near-term head-and-shoulders top, with shoulders at roughly 71.33 and 71.14 around a 72.55 head. Attempts to recover after the neckline break have been capped by the falling 55 4H EMA near 68.91, while MACD carries bearish divergence. As long as 69.40 caps rebounds, risk stays on the downside toward the 38.2% retracement of 89.36 to 54.77, at 67.99.

That doesn't say Silver must rise outright. It says that, on a relative basis, market structure favors Silver over Gold.

ActionForex's Technical View on Silver

Silver's chart itself is also becoming more constructive at exactly the point CPI is approaching. Bullish divergence in the 4H MACD preceded a break above the 55-day EMA and medium-term falling trendline, shifting the near-term bias higher while 60.85 holds.

The next test is much tougher: the 66.5–68.0 zone, containing the 161.8% projection of 54.77 to 60.54 from 56.53 at 66.54, and the 38.2% retracement of 89.36 to 54.77 at 67.99. With momentum already stretched, an initial rejection there wouldn't be surprising. But a decisive break would signal the recovery is evolving into something larger, targeting the 261.8% projection at 72.73, or even further to the 61.8% retracement at 76.15.

Why Wednesday Is About the Macro Regime, Not Just the Number

That makes Wednesday less about whether Silver is simply "bullish" and more about whether CPI supplies the right macro regime for its relative advantage to matter. Soft inflation plus resilient risk sentiment is the ideal combination: lower yields and a softer Dollar support both metals, while stronger equities and reflation expectations tilt the balance toward Silver.

Hot CPI would do almost the exact opposite — reviving Fed tightening risk and removing Silver's cyclical edge. Payrolls opened the door to a September hold; CPI now decides whether markets can walk through it with confidence. If they can, Silver may be the better trade than Gold.

Key Takeaways

• Weak payrolls made the case for a Fed hold but didn't confirm inflation is cooling — Wednesday's CPI is needed to complete the dovish case.
• Silver benefits from two channels softer CPI could open: lower yields/Dollar (shared with Gold) and stronger risk sentiment via its industrial demand exposure (Gold doesn't have this).
• The Gold/Silver ratio has formed a bearish head-and-shoulders top, capped below 69.40, pointing toward 67.99 next — a signal already favoring Silver on a relative basis.
• Silver's own chart shows bullish MACD divergence and a break above its 55-day EMA, with 60.85 as near-term support and 66.5-68.0 as the next major resistance zone.
• A soft CPI print without rising growth fears is the ideal setup for Silver to outperform Gold; a hot print would revive Fed tightening risk and erase that edge.

USD/JPY finds itself at the center of one of the most dramatic currency stories this summer. Having weakened to a four-decade low near ¥164, the yen was pulled back sharply after Japan and the US carried out a coordinated intervention, with Tokyo reportedly spending around $34 billion in a single session to defend its currency. The move briefly pushed the pair toward ¥155, though the yen has since given back some of those gains, trading back near ¥158 as doubts persist over how long intervention alone can hold.

The underlying driver remains the wide gap between US and Japanese interest rates, made worse by rebounding oil prices following renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are now watching for a possible BoJ hike in September, encouraged by six straight months of rising real wages, while the Fed's own July dissents—three policymakers pushed for a hike over a hold—keep US rates firmly in the driver's seat too.

With both central banks now genuinely in play, USD/JPY's next move looks set to hinge on which side moves first: Tokyo's rate decision, or Washington's next data-driven signal.

Technical Analysis of USD/JPY

As the USD/JPY chart shows, the pair collapsed sharply after the coordinated intervention, dropping from the 163.76 highs to a low near 155.21 before staging a steady recovery. Price is now testing the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near 158.48, supported by an ascending trendline off the intervention low, with the RSI showing a bullish divergence as it prints higher lows even as price briefly retested the range.

Bullish Scenario

Should buyers hold the ascending trendline and break decisively above the 0.382 retracement, the path would open toward the 0.5 level near 159.49, with a stronger move targeting the 0.618 retracement around 160.50, where deeper resistance likely awaits.

Bearish Scenario

Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline would invalidate the current recovery structure, exposing a retest of the intervention low near 155.21-156.00, with the RSI divergence losing credibility if price fails to hold this zone.

With price coiled right at the 0.382 confluence, and both the trendline and RSI hinting at renewed strength, USD/JPY looks set for a decisive move—will the recovery from intervention extend, or does Tokyo's defense prove only temporary?

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Eurozone investor confidence improved for a fourth straight month in August, reinforcing signs that sentiment is recovering alongside firmer economic data. Sentix Overall Index rose from -3.1 to 0.9, beating expectations of -1.3 and reaching highest level since February. Current Situation improved from -14.8 to -8.0, while Expectations edged up from 9.3 to 10.3. Sentix linked improvement to stronger-than-expected Q2 growth, recovering industrial production and confidence indicators, rising investment and government spending, as well as partial absorption of confidence shock from Iran war. Still, high energy costs and subdued order books continue to constrain recovery.

Improving growth picture is being accompanied by renewed inflation concern. Sentix Inflation Barometer deteriorated sharply from -13.75 to -29.25, indicating investors are again becoming more worried about price pressures after previous month’s improvement, although concern remains below extremes seen during height of Iran conflict. ECB Policy Barometer likewise fell from -8.25 to -15.25, showing markets expect a more restrictive policy environment. Combination of stronger activity and renewed inflation risks therefore argues against an early monetary-policy “all-clear.”

Germany showed a similar but more fragile improvement. Sentix Overall Index rose for a third month from -19.4 to -11.9, while Current Situation jumped from -39.8 to -28.3 and Expectations improved from 3.5 to 6.0. Recent 0.2% Q2 growth and firmer ifo confidence support stabilization case, but deeply negative current-condition reading shows underlying economy is still weak.

For ECB, broader message is two-sided: growth fears are easing just as inflation concerns are rebuilding, reducing urgency for a more accommodative policy turn.

Data Summary

Euro Area Sentix Investor Confidence

Germany Sentix Investor Confidence

Key Takeaways

• Eurozone Sentix Overall Index improved from -3.1 to 0.9 in August, marking a fourth consecutive monthly rise and highest level since February.
• Current Situation also strengthened from -14.8 to -8.0, while Expectations edged higher from 9.3 to 10.3, showing recovery is becoming broader but still led by forward-looking optimism.
• Sentix cited stronger Q2 growth, improving industrial production and confidence indicators, rising investment and government spending, and partial absorption of Iran-war confidence shock.
• Inflation concerns resurfaced sharply, with Sentix Inflation Barometer falling from -13.75 to -29.25, while Central Bank Policy Barometer weakened from -8.25 to -15.25.
• That combination of better growth and renewed inflation concern argues against an early monetary-policy “all-clear” from ECB.
• Germany also improved for a third consecutive month, but Current Situation at -28.3 still points to weak underlying conditions despite better expectations.

Full Eurozone Sentiment release here.

The pair gained momentum following the release of the US labour market report for July 2026 on 7 August. Non-farm employment fell by 23,000 jobs, compared with a forecast for an increase of 80,000 jobs among economists surveyed by Reuters. Employment data for May and June were also revised downwards, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The dollar responded with broad-based weakness. Earlier, on 30 July, the Bank of England kept its interest rate at 3.75% by a six-to-three vote, with three members of the committee voting for a rate hike. The regulator’s decision also highlighted inflation risks associated with volatility in energy prices.

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD

After a sharp rise from around 1.3280 towards 1.3500 in late July, the pair entered a narrowing range between the upper and lower boundaries of the current profile at 1.3483 and 1.3440, respectively. The two boundaries gradually converged, forming a pattern resembling a contracting triangle. The green impulse candle subsequently broke above the pattern’s upper boundary, while the price is attempting to establish itself above both the trendline and the profile boundary. If the bullish scenario develops, the price could move towards the red resistance level at 1.3555.

If the current breakout from consolidation proves to be false and the price returns inside the profile, the POC at 1.3465 and the lower profile boundary at 1.3440 will regain their importance for market participants. Below these levels lies the green support area at 1.3420. The RSI + MAs indicator shows three readings of 61, 57 and 57. All three values are above the neutral zone, while the moving averages are coloured green. It is also worth noting that vertical volume has declined compared with the late-July impulse.

Summary

The attempt to break above the triangle’s upper boundary could open the way towards a test of the red resistance area at 1.3555, but the sustainability and potential of the move may also depend on the flow of further US economic data.

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In focus today

In Norway, we expect core inflation to have risen to 2.9% in July, driven by a partial rebound in information and communication technology, as well as airline tickets. Lower food inflation should pull slightly in the opposite direction. If we are correct, core inflation would be 0.4pp lower than what Norges Bank assumed in the monetary policy report in June. In that case, we would expect Norges Bank to stay on hold on Thursday but retain a tightening bias.

In Denmark, July inflation data is due. Headline inflation has held steady at 1.9% y/y for the past two months, and we expect it to remain unchanged. Base effects from last year's elevated food and electricity prices may exert downward pressure, offset by seasonal upward pressure from the higher weighting of holiday centres and camping sites in July.

In the euro area, the Sentix Investor Confidence indicator is due. The index rose sharply in July, marking the third consecutive monthly improvement, driven by rising expectations. Today's release will provide a read on whether momentum continues.

The Swedish week starts today with the Production Value Index (PVI). The PVI is typically of particular interest ahead of the GDP indicator release, but with the strong Q2 GDP indicator already published, today's figures are unlikely to trigger significant market reaction.

Overnight, we expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to maintain its cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, in line with consensus and market pricing. After three rate hikes during the spring, RBA is unlikely to tighten its policy rate much further in the coming meetings either.

Looking ahead, the main event this week is the Norges Bank monetary policy meeting on Thursday. On Wednesday, US inflation data will be in focus, followed on Thursday by UK Q2 GDP estimates. The week closes on Friday with the second release of euro area Q2 GDP, including details. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East and its spillover into commodities remain an ongoing point of attention throughout the week.

Economic and market news

What happened over the weekend

In the US, the July jobs report came in on the weak side with nonfarm payrolls coming in at -23k (cons: +80k, Danske: +70k) and cumulative revisions for May-June firmly negative at -103k. The unemployment rate nonetheless fell to 4.1% (cons: 4.2%, Danske: 4.2%). At the same time, the labour market participation rate declined to 61.4%, which is the weakest level since February 2021. We do not think this report is as unambiguously dovish as the initial moves in UST yields and USD FX implied, leaving the Fed in a difficult position balancing below-expectations job growth against a still-declining unemployment rate. Fed's Barkin offered initial commentary that acknowledged the weakness in the labour market data, while pointing to continued resilient corporate earnings.

In China, both consumer and producer price inflation eased more than expected in July. CPI fell to a six-month low of 0.5% y/y (cons.: 0.8%, prior: 1.0%), while PPI slowed to a three-month low of 3.5% y/y (cons.: 3.9%, prior: 4.1%). Lower oil prices and soft domestic demand were the primary drivers. While stronger fiscal spending has been pledged by top leaders on infrastructure projects, the impact on inflation is likely to be felt with a lag.

In Norway, manufacturing production fell 1.0% m/m in July, pulling the underlying three-month trend down to 0.7%. The slowdown was largely driven by oil-related industries, while mainland industries held more stable. Despite the monthly dip, manufacturing remains a relative bright spot in an economy where rate-sensitive sectors such as retail trade and construction continue to face headwinds.

In geopolitics, there were signs of progress towards an Iran-Oman shipping agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi confirming that talks with Oman are in their final stages. However, he was explicit that a deal would not automatically translate into a reopening of the waterway. Furthermore, Tehran tied a full reopening to further US concessions, including US force withdrawals, war damage compensation and sanctions relief.

Equities: Global risk sentiment ended last week on a strong note, even though the trigger was hardly unambiguously positive. Equities liked the decline in front-end yields on the back of the NFP report and were less focused on potential growth implications that the reading may have. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% on Friday, ending its best week since April with a weekly gain of around 3.6%. Nasdaq was up 1.2% on Friday and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3%. The S&P 500 even reached a fresh record-high, which is striking given that the same week had included both AI capex concerns and a memory-chip sell-off, and what seemed most like Newton's cradle when it comes to geopolitics. Within equities, both cyclicals and defensives rose, yet the former outperformed the latter by 0.9pp on Friday. Materials, consumer disc and tech were at the top of the table rising about 1.3-1.5%, while Financials and Energy declined. Overnight, Asian equities are in green, with US futures mixed.

FI and FX: The USD took a hit on Friday and the US jobs report significantly disappointed expectations. The USD lost ground against the rest of G10 currencies. EUR/USD rose briefly to 1.1581 – the highest level in almost two months and USD/JPY temporarily fell below 157. Short-term US interest rates dropped along with the USD. The 2Y swap rate fell more than 6bp after the release of the jobs report and ended the day down around 3-4bp. Consequently, the market now discounts 11bp of hikes from the Federal Reserve at the next meeting in September. The Scandi currencies were broadly unchanged vis-à-vis the EUR on Friday, i.e. both EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK traded below the 11.00 mark. Short-term NOK interest rates fell slightly on Friday and ahead of the Norges Bank meeting this week dragged down by the drop in US interest rates.

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.1520 resistance.
• A contracting triangle is forming with resistance at 1.1600 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD could gain pace if it clears the 1.3550 resistance.
• Gold prices climbed higher above $4,350 and might continue to rise.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro formed a base above 1.1380 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.1450 and 1.1500 resistance levels.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair gained pace for a move toward 1.1580. A high was formed at 1.1581, and the pair is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1352 swing low to the 1.1581 high.

The pair is now well above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). On the upside, the pair could face resistance near 1.1580.

The next major resistance might be 1.1600. There is also a contracting triangle forming with resistance at 1.1600. A close above 1.1600 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1650.

Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.1685. If there is a downside correction, the pair might find bids near 1.1540. The next major support could be near 1.1500.

The main support might be 1.1465 and the 50% Fib retracement. A downside break and close below 1.1465 might send the pair toward 1.1400. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 1.1350.

Looking at GBP/USD, the pair seems to be gaining pace above 1.3450 and might aim for a retest of the 1.3550 resistance.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• Euro Zone Sentix Investor Confidence for August 2026 - Forecast -3.2, versus -3.1 previous.

TL;DR: The RBA's Tuesday hold is a formality — what matters for AUD/CAD is whether its tightening bias survives, and the setup is asymmetric: preserving it offers limited support, while confirming the cycle has ended could trigger a deeper correction.

Why the Rate Decision Itself Won't Move Markets

The RBA is widely expected to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday, making the decision itself largely a formality. After softer-than-expected Q2 inflation, Australia's Big Four banks now agree rates are likely to stay on hold through the rest of 2026, while broadly expecting the next move to be a cut sometime in 2027.

That pushes market focus away from the rate decision and toward a narrower question: how much of the RBA's tightening bias survives? For the Australian Dollar, the setup is asymmetric — keeping another hike theoretically alive may offer limited support, while clearer confirmation that the tightening cycle has ended could have a larger negative impact.

The First Signal: Policy Statement Language

The first signal will come from the policy statement. Every RBA statement this year has retained some version of the line that "the Board remains attentive to upside risks to inflation." Keeping that language would amount to a hawkish hold, but it would largely preserve existing policy optionality rather than make another hike materially more likely.

More consequential would be a shift toward language suggesting policy is sufficiently restrictive, or removal of explicit emphasis on upside inflation risks. Such a change would give markets their clearest indication yet that 4.35% is the peak rate.

The Bigger Signal: The Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy

The more important signal should come from the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP). May forecasts had trimmed-mean inflation returning to the top of the 2–3% target band during 2027, but the Q2 reading subsequently undershot the RBA's own projection at 3.6%.

If August forecasts maintain that disinflation path or bring the return to target forward, despite starting from softer inflation, the Board would effectively be validating the improvement and strengthening the case that further tightening is unnecessary. Conversely, if the RBA pushes the return to target further out, it would suggest policymakers aren't yet prepared to fully trust the latest inflation moderation. The technical cash-rate assumption embedded in the forecasts will also be worth comparing with the previous SoMP, particularly to see how much easing is already incorporated into the projection path.

Why the Upside for AUD Is Limited

This leaves limited upside asymmetry for AUD. Even if the RBA preserves hawkish language, the current 4.35% rate is already clearly restrictive, making an extended hold more plausible than another increase. Markets therefore have little reason to rebuild meaningful hike expectations simply because the Board refuses to close the door.

By contrast, a softer inflation track or explicit peak-rate language would provide genuinely new information and allow attention to shift more decisively toward eventual easing.

Why This Matters for AUD/CAD

That asymmetry makes AUD/CAD particularly interesting. CAD received support from last week's stronger-than-expected Canadian employment report and could benefit further if the oil rebound extends. At the same time, AUD/CAD's uptrend from 0.8902 has clearly lost momentum, as reflected in both daily and weekly MACD, while the pair is close to major resistance at 0.9991 from the 2021 peak.

ActionForex's Technical View on AUD/CAD

Technically, a break of 0.9721 support would indicate the five-wave rally from 0.8902 is already correcting, bringing a deeper fall to the 38.2% retracement of 0.8902 to 0.9957, at 0.9555. That area is close to the fourth-wave low around 0.9510 and the 55-week EMA near 0.9536.

However, a decisive break of 0.9991 would invalidate the correction case and extend the broader uptrend instead.

For now, the RBA retaining its tightening bias may be enough to keep AUD/CAD supported in range; losing it could provide the catalyst for a deeper correction.

Key Takeaways

• Tuesday's RBA hold at 4.35% is a formality — the real signal is whether the tightening bias survives in the policy statement and SoMP forecasts.
• The key phrase to watch is "attentive to upside risks to inflation"; its removal would be the clearest signal yet that 4.35% is the peak rate.
• The quarterly SoMP matters more than the statement — whether the RBA maintains or delays its 2027 return-to-target path will show how much it trusts the Q2 inflation undershoot.
• The setup is asymmetric for AUD: preserving the tightening bias offers limited upside since another hike already looks unlikely, while losing it opens clearer downside.
• AUD/CAD is capped near 0.9991 resistance; a break of 0.9721 support opens a deeper correction toward 0.9555, while a break above 0.9991 would invalidate that case.